Baht What up with Dat?????

If Thailand became a failed state, industry ground to a halt, It was hit by earthquakes and other natural disasters the Baht would still retain it's strength. One bit of bad news in the UK sends the pound into free fall. I'll never understand it.

lepidoptra wrote: I'll never understand it.

It's a simple matter of economics. As long as Thailand EXPORTS more than it IMPORTS it will have a positive Balance of Trade (BoT) (making foreign countries need more Baht to pay for their Thai imports) the rate of the Thai currency will remain comparatively high.

I have a question I would like to ask
I am coming over from the UK for a month in August would I be advised to bring Pounds Sterling or a bank debit card bearing in mind it is 150 baht a time used?

Valiant, bring sterling and change it here as needed, and hope the exchange rate improves between now and when you change it, - though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!

You get a better rate here than in the UK.

But remain aware that if you have a pile of cash, you could loose it one way or another. Money in you bank is safer.

Thank you all for your advise, we are with the Nationwide. Where are the Yellow Banks?

arjay wrote: though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!

based on what ?????

arjay wrote: though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!



cookie wrote: based on what ?????

Based on my views that:

-sterling has fallen substantially over the last 18+ months, (some 35%) and particularly so over the last 6 months.

-sterling is not part of the Euro currency and therefore should be less affected by the Euro weakness and Debt contagion issues

-sterling is now disproportionately cheap compared to the baht and many other currencies, and ultimately markets will recognise/realise such things

-whilst there are and will be concerns about the UK's level of debt, there is now a new government in the UK with a stated (and partially demonstrated) commitment to tackle the UK's debt situation

-that the new UK government will be announcing their budget/financial measures to tackle the UK's debt on 22 June, which should give the markets (sterling) confidence.

- UK interest rates will inevitably have to rise to counter inflationary pressures, (though maybe not until end of this year, beginning of next), which will tend to strengthen the currency. Indeed even the prospect of an increase will tend to increase a currency's exchange rate.

That's my (personal) assessment/views anyway.

As the Euro falls, UK exports become more expensive. If the UK cannot export it's way out of debt, which it can't, the only other option on the table is to inflate its way out of debt by printing more money.

The thing that tickles me is that the latter strategy is in effect, but the general public seems to be blissfully unaware because it is being carried out over several years in small but compounding increments.

arjay wrote:

arjay wrote: though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!



cookie wrote: based on what ?????

Based on my views that:

-sterling has fallen substantially over the last 18+ months, (some 35%) and particularly so over the last 6 months.

-sterling is not part of the Euro currency and therefore should be less affected by the Euro weakness and Debt contagion issues

-sterling is now disproportionately cheap compared to the baht and many other currencies, and ultimately markets will recognise/realise such things

-whilst there are and will be concerns about the UK's level of debt, there is now a new government in the UK with a stated (and partially demonstrated) commitment to tackle the UK's debt situation

-that the new UK government will be announcing their budget/financial measures to tackle the UK's debt on 22 June, which should give the markets (sterling) confidence.

- UK interest rates will inevitably have to rise to counter inflationary pressures, (though maybe not until end of this year, beginning of next), which will tend to strengthen the currency. Indeed even the prospect of an increase will tend to increase a currency's exchange rate.

That's my (personal) assessment/views anyway.

sorry arjay,

I have to disagree with your personal assessment,

I think (contrary to your assessment) that the exchange rate will get even worse in the future.

I think that the Thai Bath will get even stronger in the future and the Sterling will fall further in the future

I guess the future will show us...

by the way,
I just read this breaking news in the Nation...

BREAKINGNEWS »


Foreign investments higher in Jan.-Apr. 2010

Foreign direct investment in January to April of this year increased by 31.7 per cent year-on-year, according to the Board of Investment (BOI) secretary-general Atchaka Sibunruang.

The BOI approved 186 foreign investments projects between January and April of this year.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Foreign-investments-higher-in-Jan-Apr-2010-30130560.html

articles like this simply confirm that the Thai Bath will keep on getting stronger,

regardless of all the problems in Thailand during these months,
regardless of the political turmoil,
regardless of the fighting and the deaths,
foreign direct capital kept on flowing into Thailand and pushing the Thai Bath higher and higher !!!),

amazing....

The stock investors haven't came back, they will. These are projects of one type or another being developed in Thailand. There were billions pulled out of stocks in the last few weeks. Headed for safer area's when things calm down the hedge funds will be knocking on the door again.

That's my best guess.

Note for the Record, from the Bangkok Bank Website, at today's close (31st May 2010).

Sterling TT Buying Rate: 46.78250 (and that's up from last week!!)


Currency Description Bank Note Buying Rates Selling Rates


GBP United Kingdom 46.41 48.01 46.66000 **46.78250** 47.45500

http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok%20Ba ... Rates.aspx

arjay wrote:Note for the Record, from the Bangkok Bank Website, at today's close (31st May 2010).

Sterling TT Buying Rate: 46.78250 (and that's up from last week!!)


Currency Description Bank Note Buying Rates Selling Rates


GBP United Kingdom 46.41 48.01 46.66000 **46.78250** 47.45500

http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok%20Ba ... Rates.aspx

my prediction will come,
just wait for it

by the way,
Bumper is quite right,
the stock investors will also come back on top of all this,
making the Thai Bath even more stronger