Baht What up with Dat?????

nkstan wrote:

JimboPSM wrote:

nkstan wrote:That chart is definitely wrong.I distinctly remember the baht going just below 30 ,3 years ago!

Sorry Stan, in this case your memory is faulty, the chart is 100% correct.

Here is a link to a Yahoo Finace interactive chart,showing 3 days of closing below 30 in 2007;JUly 16 at 29.90,July 30 at 20.85 and dec.31 at 29.70....... plus I did get 29.62 from the ATM during some period in 2007 even though my memory is faulty at times

Link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDT ... l=USDTHB=X

The charts on BBC, Yahoo and similar interactive rate sites gave substantially false readings during the period that the two tier exchange rate was in existence.

The rates suffered from substantial distortion after the BoT introduced the two tier system in December 2006 because the data providers who provided the feeds to BBC, Yahoo, etc did not differentiate between the “Offshore” and “Onshore” rates; consequently the charts became pretty well useless.

The BBC and Yahoo charts were incorrect then, they have never been amended and they are still incorrect now.

I queried the charts with BBC and others at the time (and I also posted about it on UM), I had several telephone discussions with the BBC and although they did acknowledge there was a problem I could not persuade them to separate the “Offshore” and “Onshore” rates.

With regard to the Yahoo charts covering July and December 2007 - the following contain the USD/THB data from Kasikorn Bank for July and December 2007 which I collected on a daily basis and I believe it to be correct (I have cross checked the rates for a few of the days with Bangkok Bank and they are virtually identical), the Yahoo charts, like the BBC charts relied on mixed data feeds covering both Onshore and Offshore data which and in my opinion is incorrect. As can be seen the Onshore rates never got remotely close to "29" in July or December 2007.
July 2007

December 2007


The rates data that I used for my charts for the entire period of the two tier exchange rate system were the daily closing “Onshore” rates taken from the published foreign exchange rates at Kasikorn Bank. I have tried to recheck the Kasikorn data but the historical data on their website now only goes back to 2008, however I was able to check it on the Bangkok bank site where data for 2007 is still available and it is virtually identical to the old data I had from Kasikorn.

There were a multitude of cases that I can recall being posted on different Thai forums in 2007 where Thai banks were incorrectly using “Offshore” rates when they should have been using “Onshore” rates – subsequently it was noticeable that Thai banks appeared to make disproportionately large profits during the period of the two tier system (which would seem to indicate that they made a lot of errors which just happened to go in their favour).

In my opinion, if you received 29.62 on a transaction you were probably the victim of one of those incorrectly applied “Offshore” rates.

Well I guess what really counts is what we get in an actual exchange.Other than the fact that I didn't like the 29.62 exchange rate,I accepted it as I saw the Yahoo chart was in close correlation to what I got at the time!

At the moment Yahoo shows 31.73 !How does that square with what you are seeing on your charts?

nkstan wrote:...... At the moment Yahoo shows 31.73 !How does that square with what you are seeing on your charts?

This is my latest data, the figures for the 18th are provisional and include the first update (at 10.36) for the day.

August 2010

Todays latest average rate is 31.685, the close last night was 31.725 which when rounded off is the 31.73 you quoted above.

As there are no longer two separate rates the feeds for BBC and Yahoo are generally very close to the actual average buy/sell rates, however they should still be treated with caution as the feeds do break down from time to time.

It is only the period while the two tier system was in operation and a period after it "terminated" while term contracts either matured or were unwound that the BBC and Yahoo charts were incorrect.

Two systems sounds about right

Just saw 31.62 on Bloomberg TV!

nkstan wrote:Just saw 31.62 on Bloomberg TV!

That is a ''one'' baht drop in the last month!

New to the Blog: So where do you think it will go by the end of the year?
Very Respectfully to all..

The Nation,this morning:

TREASURY VIEW
For the baht, the only way is upBy Nattawut Sachabudhawong(meaning less baht for exchanged foreign currencies)
Published on August 19, 2010


With the recent movement of the baht, especially in August, the timing seems right to recap the fundamentals behind the currency's recent shifts in value.

In 2009, it opened at 34.8 against the US dollar, before ending the year 4 per cent stronger at 33.3. However, this year has already seen a 4.2 per cent increase in value against the dollar. At the beginning of 2010, many pundits were expecting to see the baht level out at around Bt32/dollar by year-end. At the time, we argued that the baht might strengthen beyond these expectations to around Bt31/dollar. We remain firm in that view.


Both internal and external factors have led to that conclusion.


The internal factor is Thailand's balance of payments figure, which is reflecting a huge surplus in both our current account and capital account. Significant growth in the exports sector during the first half of the year has helped produce a figure of $6 billion-plus in the current account, while, the capital account added another surplus of $7.5 billion, mainly from capital inflow into both the stock markets and capital markets. These two combine as the balance of payments figure, which so far is growing faster than last year.

Externally, there are two factors. First, the yuan has become a key factor over the past couple of months after China decided to allow its currency flexibility by releasing the unofficial peg to the dollar. As a result the yuan will tend to appreciate, and will drag along regional currencies including the baht.


Second are the changes to growth expected in major economies of the US, Europe and Japan in the second half of this year. The fiscal policies these economies have used to kick-start growth will begin to have less impact, and we expect to see slower growth here. Meanwhile, the emerging economies of China and the East should continue to grow apace, allowing their central banks to normalise their interest rates sooner. This will attract more capital flow into our region, which should push up the value of Asian currencies in the second half of this year.
With this combination of external trends and internal factors, there is only one way for the baht to go in the second half of this year - up.

Nattawut Sachabudhawong is a member of the assets and liabilities management team of Siam Commercial Bank's Treasury Division.

Well this isn't much comfort. In watching BBC this morning the Yen has went up 9.96% , this year.

I think we are pretty much up the creek without a paddle. The Philippine Peso was trading at 56 when I retired 42 today.

Ron was partially correct back in the day. The Vietnamese have devalued the dong intentionally again, I say partially correct as I still don't know what the cost of living is there. The numbers don't mean as much a what can get for your money.

There is inflation here in Thailand you can see it everyday when you buy food. The way to offset that is to raise interest rates. The by product of that the baht will become stronger.

So it looks to me that what is going to happen will depend on our home countries and I believe we have several tough years ahead of us.

The other option try to get more n bang out of your buck. Can't do it in bank account doesn't pay enough to offset the inflation. That is exactly what drove me to learn stocks. I didn't know enough, nor do I now. So I joined a stock club. It ain't free there are annual fees. But the Thaistock club has done well by me. I have beat the rate of exchange and the bank rates and a little more.

Getting started wasn't as easy as it sounds first I had to find a broker who would work with me with 15K a month. I eventually found that in Asia Plus.

So whatever you can find to add a little to the kitty each month, will offset some of these losses are there risks yes. But no one told me before I moved here there was a risk in the exchange rates, well there was most thing that are worthwhile have risks attached. Doing the best you can to control those risks is the about the best . I'm sure as heck not looking to the dollar to save me the way things are now.

But that's just me and truthful scared the heck our of me, But I could find that 15K without endangering anything. I made a lot of mistakes but getting feed back from the club I have done OK so far. Probably would have done better had been listening better

No doubt about it folks the BAHT is KICKING BUTT BIG Time now a Day, Those that have the Euro and the dollars coming in are really taking it in the SHORTS<>NUFF SAID

Your considered part of Asia so you might do OK, didn't they raise the interest rates not to long ago?

If they did that will help

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/20 ... 36150.html

This a very different view of the devaluation on the Dong, then the BOT's

I've waited for years for them to step on their foot. But, thus far they have been bullet proof

Re the devaluation of the Dong (though not by much), an interesting implication highlighted in the last piece of the article referred to above, which may possibly help:

Kasikorn Research Centre expects the devaluation of the dong to hit Thailand's agricultural exports, especially rice, rubber, shoes, garments and value-added seafood products.The Vietnamese dong devaluation is expected to boost the competitiveness of Vietnamese products in global market.

The Thai exporters might have to face a furious competition with Vietnam in global market. While, the strength of Baht is a factor to pressure Thailand's export.

That may put some pressure on Thailand not to allow the baht to appreciate too much (as they will now be even less competitive against Vietnamese products)!