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Die Dollar! Die!

This section is for general money matters, finance and investing.

Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Postby KHONDAHM » November 19, 2010, 5:36 am

@Parrot
You are aware that it is common knowledge that Buffet has been heavily short the dollar for quite some years now and has been a vocal advocate of being short? Really, you can Google it yourself.

His strategy of shorting the dollar is to invest in (primarily) securities that go up when the dollar goes down. For example, he bought heavily into all the railroads beginning in 2007. Let me repeat that. Beginning in 2007. Awesome timing, huh? Anyway, how are railroads a short on the dollar? Dollar goes down, oil goes up, fuel goes up, trucking fails or becomes too expensive, railroads get more business. In addition, railroads get free money and concessions from Sam to cover a chunk of their operating costs - especially given that they cut through or directly affect jobs or industry in just about every Congressional district there is or ever will be. I could list several examples of Buffet shorting the dollar, but I will let your Google results do the talking (check out his China buys) but make no mistake about it: Buffet is one of the biggest pro-shorts there is today.

I also think you may have seen the forest but not the trees in that link you provided. Here are just a few "Timber!" yells I picked up:

"But when businesses and people worldwide race to get liquid, you are the only party with the resources to take the other side of the transaction." The "resources" are it's position as a reserve currency and ability to *poof* an unending supply of money into existence.

"But you’ve never been known for speed, and in a meltdown minutes matter. I worried whether the barrage of shattering surprises would disorient you." In fact, that is EXACTLY what happened and it was Buffet himself who had to step in and bail out Goldman Sachs! Without Buffet, Sachs would have collapsed. The spin is that his stake was a "vote of confidence" but the terms of the deal said anything but that.

I'll skip commenting on some of the lines he writes following the above quote because anyone who recalls the events and context will find them utterly amusing in its overt sarcasm.

"I never voted for George W. Bush..." Which is to say that he was completely against Republicans' economic policies and execution. Otherwise, he would have voted for Bush at least once. Well, now the Republicans control the purse strings again. I seriously doubt Buffet is all warm and fuzzy about prospects for a turn-around...
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Postby KHONDAHM » November 19, 2010, 5:54 am

Here's a good quick read on Buffet's opinion of the dollar. A far, far cry from what you may have gleaned from that sarcastically written Thank You note:

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2005/0110/036.html?
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Postby parrot » November 19, 2010, 11:32 am

Mangoes and mangosteens. Buffet may have no faith in the dollar, but his complements to the government in their response to the financial crisis seems sincere to me.
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Postby JimboPSM » November 19, 2010, 12:50 pm

Earmarks – will eliminating them be anything more than Smoke and Mirrors?

Following all the rhetoric from all sides during the recent elections I found this article on the Politifact Truth-O-Meter about earmarks interesting and illuminating :-k

Richard Lugar says ending earmarks won't save money

One of the congressional Republicans' first actions after the 2010 election was to take a stand on curbing earmarks -- the targeted congressional spending provisions that have been criticized by politicians ranging from President Barack Obama to most members of the tea party movement.

An earmark is a requirement that money approved by Congress be spent in a specific way at the request of a lawmaker. Critics have long argued that earmarks are likelier to serve the interest of a particular congressional district or constituent group than the national good.

On Nov. 16, 2010, after pressure from newly elected, tea party-backed Republican candidates as well as incumbents on the right flank of the GOP, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., blessed an earmark moratorium, even though McConnell had been an active earmarker for much of his congressional career.

"Make no mistake, I know the good that has come from the projects I have helped support throughout my state," McConnell said. "I don't apologize for them. But there is simply no doubt that the abuse of this practice has caused Americans to view it as a symbol of the waste and the out-of-control spending that every Republican in Washington is determined to fight. And unless people like me show the American people that we're willing to follow through on small or even symbolic things, we risk losing them on our broader efforts to cut spending and rein in government."

Two days after McConnell's announcement, the new House Republican majority voted to enact a ban on earmarks in the 112th Congress as well.

Yet as popular as banning earmarks appears to be, a few lawmakers have urged caution. Some have argued that giving up Congress' right to direct where money goes effectively cedes those powers to the executive branch, centralizing more power than ever in the presidential administration. Some have argued that, in the context of the entire federal budget, the dollar amounts are trivial -- roughly $15 billion out of a $1.4 trillion deficit in 2009. Critics say that focusing on earmarks is a symbolic action that obscures the harder choices that will be needed to reduce the federal deficit and cut into the national debt.

One lawmaker, Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., made a stark point: Cutting earmarks won't actually save money.

"I oppose the Senate Republican Conference voluntary moratorium on so-called 'earmarks,' " Lugar said in a prepared statement. "At a moment in which over-spending by the federal government perpetuates annual deficits of over $1 trillion a year, the Congress is being asked to debate a congressional earmark spending resolution which will save no money, even while giving the impression that the Congress is attempting to meet the public demand to reduce spending. Instead of surrendering constitutional authority to Washington bureaucrats and the Obama Administration, Congress should focus on reducing spending on both entitlement and discretionary spending programs. Providing the Obama Administration with greater authority to direct spending does not accomplish this goal, and eliminating earmarks does not reduce spending."

It's the last part -- the notion that "eliminating earmarks does not reduce spending" -- that caught our eye. We wondered whether it's accurate.

Since earmarks are simply provisions of larger spending bills that direct where lawmakers want the money to go, earmarks, strictly speaking, do not increase the cost of a spending bill -- they only tell where portions of that spending should go. If Congress doesn't specify where the money should be spent, it would be up to executive branch officials to make the decision instead.

Joshua Gordon, policy director at the Concord Coalition, a group that favors balanced budgets and reducing the national debt, calls Lugar's statement "accurate."

"The moratoriums would not save any money," Gordon said. "They just change who is allowed to direct where money is spent."

Daniel Mitchell, a senior fellow with the libertarian Cato Institute, agrees that Lugar is right, though he adds that the existence of earmarks increases the upward pressure on federal spending indirectly, since lawmakers "know they need to support the relevant powers on the spending committees in order to have their earmarks approved."

Mitchell calls earmarks a "gateway drug" that "seduces members into treating the federal budget as a good thing that can be milked for home-state/district projects."

Meanwhile, Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a group critical of earmarks, said Lugar is correct that, under the current budgeting process, eliminating earmarks won't save money. That's because when earmarks are stricken by congressional vote, the money is typically reallocated to other spending, rather than saved outright. But he added that it would be possible to devise a budgeting process in which spending goes down if an earmark is eliminated.

A Lugar spokesman, Mark Helmke, said that as long as the administration does not use money dedicated to earmarks for debt reduction, the moratorium would not reduce spending. "The only way that spending is reduced is to cut program spending, and Sen. Lugar is prepared to do that," Helmke said.

Indirectly, earmarks may have an I'll-scratch-your-back-if-you-scratch-mine effect that pushes spending upward. Under the status quo, however, our experts agreed that Lugar is largely correct -- ending earmarks won't directly reduce spending, only re-direct it. There are other plausible reasons to advocate for an earmark ban, such as ending unseemly horse-trading with taxpayer dollars. But without a thorough overhaul of the budgeting process, saving money directly isn't one of them. We rate Lugar's statement Mostly True.

The article with its sources and links can be found here:


Although it appears that ending earmarks may not actually save any money, I am still of the opinion that it is a step that is needed to change the culture and help bring closer attention to the spending programs and hence the deficit.

With regard to the deficit it should be remembered that it is the difference between income (taxes) on the one side and expenditure on the other, most politicians don't appear to be able to get their head round the fact that the deficit can actually be reduced by increasing the former not just by reducing the latter.

All the post election talk has been about extending the Bush tax cuts and reducing taxes further which makes the income side of the equation even worse while on the spending side there has only been talk of having "conversations" or sometimes even "adult conversations" which should not be rushed into without proper consideration and consultation on spending (translation: business as usual) so it is very hard to see any imminent prospect for the USD to recover by way of deficit reduction :(

As for the (Mad Haters) Tea Party having any impact on "business as usual", earlier this week Chris Wallace was unable to get even one single specific program cut from Senator Jim DeMint - however, in mitigation, every politician knows that as soon as they do mention a specific program they will immediately lose votes from those affected.

The problem with "pork" in politics is that it is only recognisable as "pork" when other people benefit from it #-o ](*,)
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Postby JimboPSM » November 19, 2010, 1:55 pm

parrot wrote:Mangoes and mangosteens. Buffet may have no faith in the dollar, but his complements to the government in their response to the financial crisis seems sincere to me.

I agree with your assessment – I am a WB fan, his annual letters to shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway should be compulsory reading for all involved in business, finance and especially banking.

Much of the recent financial meltdown could have been avoided if Wall St, the media and the Fed had actually taken note of his 2002 shareholder letter – his warnings on derivatives were very clear, even to laymen.

These are a few extracts from the section of his 2002 letter covering derivatives.

Derivatives

• Charlie and I are of one mind in how we feel about derivatives and the trading activities that go with them: We view them as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system.

• The range of derivatives contracts is limited only by the imagination of man (or sometimes, so it seems, madmen).

• The valuation problem is far from academic: In recent years, some huge-scale frauds and near-frauds have been facilitated by derivatives trades. In the energy and electric utility sectors, for example, companies used derivatives and trading activities to report great “earnings” – until the roof fell in when they actually tried to convert the derivatives-related receivables on their balance sheets into cash. “Mark-to-market” then turned out to be truly “mark-to-myth.”

• I can assure you that the marking errors in the derivatives business have not been symmetrical. Almost invariably, they have favored either the trader who was eyeing a multi-million dollar bonus or the CEO who wanted to report impressive “earnings” (or both). The bonuses were paid, and the CEO profited from his options. Only much later did shareholders learn that the reported earnings were a sham.

• When Charlie and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don’t understand how much risk the institution is running.

• The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear.

• In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.


The 2002 letter: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2002pdf.pdf

The warnings from WB were crystal clear - no hindsight was needed :(
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Postby KHONDAHM » November 29, 2010, 3:08 am

Putin: Russia will join the euro one day

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/curr ... e-day.html

Now THAT is interesting and not a bad idea if they time it right. Think about it: Russia waits until the Euro "fully" devalues and the European economies are in shambles, then joins the party on its terms and instantly increases it's relative wealth while simultaneously dealing a death blow to the dollar.

Sounds like the Russian and Chinese have been having quite a few lunches together. That is exactly how one goes about defeating the American empire without firing a single shot or launching a single nuke. Want more proof? This comes on the heels of Russia and China announcing that they will settle in their own currencies and dump the dollar:

China, Russia quit dollar

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010 ... 599087.htm

Remember I toldja November was going to be THE month that things would happen? Well, it's been quite the month so far hasn't it? Remember I toldja gold would be at $1,650 in 2011? Well, it hit $1,400 this month. It's still not too late to catch the gold bus if you are still riding the death spiral express. The Euro still has a WHOLE lot more devaluation ahead of it. I do not post all my sources here. Just the giggly bits. :D

I would say that next year may be the last chance to bring funds over at a decent exchange rate. The domestic inflation here is going to be a b*tch making whatever one brings over after 2011 not worth the effort in terms of domestic buying power. Those who own their home will make out best.
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