GOLD
GOLD
Well the chartist changed his mind I'm not as concerned copper fell. That Commodity is used in every electrical device. home, factory, ships. planes we are surrounded by it. It's fall signals slow down if not a another recession. Money going to the dollar that won't last forever.
Gold's Key Support Level is $1545: Charts
Published: Wednesday, 28 Sep 2011 | 2:41 AM ET
By: Daryl Guppy
CNBC Contributor
Technical analysis is not a tool used for prediction. It is used to assess the balance of probability in the market. Analysis identifies those outcomes which have the highest probability and those outcomes with reduced probability. Naturally, many people consider only those outcomes with the higher probability — and some slip into the error of deciding that this is a prediction. Do this and it’s a great way to lose money.
The lower probability outcome cannot be ignored. An event with a 70 percent probability has a 30 percent probability of failure and this factor must be included in any trading plan. It is essential to recognize the price activity and levels which indicate that the lower probability outcome is developing. Then the trader must be adept enough to move quickly to reverse positions as required. Trading is about profits, not predictions. This is why chart analysis is used as a foundation for risk and stop-loss calculations because these calculations take into account the potential for failure.
All of which takes us back to gold's [GCCV1 1619.80 1.70 (+0.1%) ] and the massive and sudden price fall from $1920 to $1630. This suggests a major change in the trending behavior of gold. This trend dislocation is as severe as the trend dislocation in the Dow [.DJIA 11010.90 -179.79 (-1.61%) ], but it came without the same high level of warning. The key question is first, how low can this fall go before it finds support.
Second is to decide if this is a major change in the trend or just a significant correction in the existing uptrend.
We start with support features and this means a focus on congestion areas. These are areas where price has moved sideways and shown a period or reduced price volatility. It’s a do-nothing type of market condition. Sometimes this sideways movement is clearly bounded by support and resistance levels.
With gold the upper resistance area near $1545 is relatively well defined. The lower edge of the consolidation area is better defined near $1480. This gives a narrow trading consolidation band that may offer both support and absorb the down momentum of the gold price.
Traders will look for consolidation patterns to develop in this area. This may include an inverted head and shoulder pattern or a L shaped pattern where price moves between the limits of the consolidation band.
Why not use the area near $1600 as a support area? Price paused briefly in this area in July but the activity did not develop a well defined support or resistance feature. This makes it less probable it will act as a support level in the current market fall.
We expect to see some reduction in the momentum of the fall simply because the fall will be punctuated with bargain hunter buying. However falls of this magnitude usually move all the way to well defined historical support levels before developing rebound or consolidation activity.
There was little warning of this major trend collapse. There is no head and shoulder pattern because the height of the right shoulder is higher than the peak of the head of the pattern. This invalidates any head and shoulder pattern analysis.
Gold is strongly related to the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar [.DXY 77.69 -0.16 (-0.2%) ]. The surge in the US dollar index in response to increasing fears about Euro stability are the driving forces behind this fall in the gold price. The fall has been exacerbated by the selling activity of ETF bullion funds as their investors scramble for the exit irrespective of any fundamental changes in the demand supply equation for gold. In one sense this suggests the sell-off is overdone, but it would be unwise to make this assumption based on this that the price will rebound and continue the broad uptrend.
The balance of probability has shifted and shifted dramatically. In the game of probabilities the lesser probabilities can never be fully ignored particularly when volatility rules.
Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders –www.guppytraders.com. He is a regular guest on CNBC's Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe.
GOLD
What gibberish. In the first sentence he says its not prediction, then he says it's probability. What's the point? If something is probable, then of course you follow it. The real point is that without inside information, it's a crap shoot. The only probability that Guppy is interested in, is the probablilty that enough people will read his drivel, and/or tune into his CNBC shows, enabling him to have a job.Technical analysis is not a tool used for prediction. It is used to assess the balance of probability in the market. Analysis identifies those outcomes which have the highest probability and those outcomes with reduced probability. Naturally, many people consider only those outcomes with the higher probability — and some slip into the error of deciding that this is a prediction. Do this and it’s a great way to lose money.
Remember: those that can, do. Those that can't, teach.
No need to look for comfort in the ravings of the pundits. Just make up your mind to hold on until you have made enough.
All these losers are reactionary.
GOLD
I don't know I think my reaction on copper was very correct. The problem with charting is that it only tells you what happened on the day you did the chart. It doesn't apply common since. You were not unhappy with him when he said it was going back to 1900.
There is another clear signal indicating a slow down or another recession. This is the traditional time that China is stocking up with raw material, that is not happening. Why do orders increase this time of year for Christmas. Charts don't think about think, they only show patterns.
Therefore I don't agree with this one, economic or a recession spell gold will improve.
None the less looking all sides and deciding the truth yourself is always the way to go. First sentence was covering his last not so long ago OOPS!
I took the time to learn how to do it. It may help me take or not take position and sometimes I don't believe even when I do it. They are just on more tool to help you make up your mind. Even plumber uses more then one tool.
There is another clear signal indicating a slow down or another recession. This is the traditional time that China is stocking up with raw material, that is not happening. Why do orders increase this time of year for Christmas. Charts don't think about think, they only show patterns.
Therefore I don't agree with this one, economic or a recession spell gold will improve.
None the less looking all sides and deciding the truth yourself is always the way to go. First sentence was covering his last not so long ago OOPS!
I took the time to learn how to do it. It may help me take or not take position and sometimes I don't believe even when I do it. They are just on more tool to help you make up your mind. Even plumber uses more then one tool.
GOLD
Just another thought Gold went from a high of in the 1900 range, fell to a 1500 range.
Dollar down in the 1900 range dollar up in the 1500 range
As I recall he said the support level is 1500
What would you expect a chart to show you?
Now lets think for just min. do we expect the dollar to stay up, it might for a short period if the E.U. fails to act again. It's not about the strength of the dollar but the weakness of the EURO.
Well several of the votes are in on supporting Greece positive so far. So we get though this stage, then the world will turn it's focus on the states. Nothing has changed there. So the dollar will be i under attack again. I just hope it holds till get my retirement money in the next few day's
I didn't go run and sale my Gold. I bought in that 1500 range, I have ,little doubt that it would go back to the 1900 range. So was that chart a value to you and I, no. But, might be for the guys looking for a entry point. If you are looking for an entry point often referred to catching a falling knife I wouldn't wait to much longer.
To many indicators showing a slow down and large possibility of the dollar the hated currency, to begin to correct.
Would you agree that now is a good time to think in terms of buying or accumulating Gold?
You see when I put it all together that is what I come out with. even if went to 1500 don't mean nothing. I assure you if it does hot 1500 I will be buying more.
Dollar down in the 1900 range dollar up in the 1500 range
As I recall he said the support level is 1500
What would you expect a chart to show you?
Now lets think for just min. do we expect the dollar to stay up, it might for a short period if the E.U. fails to act again. It's not about the strength of the dollar but the weakness of the EURO.
Well several of the votes are in on supporting Greece positive so far. So we get though this stage, then the world will turn it's focus on the states. Nothing has changed there. So the dollar will be i under attack again. I just hope it holds till get my retirement money in the next few day's
I didn't go run and sale my Gold. I bought in that 1500 range, I have ,little doubt that it would go back to the 1900 range. So was that chart a value to you and I, no. But, might be for the guys looking for a entry point. If you are looking for an entry point often referred to catching a falling knife I wouldn't wait to much longer.
To many indicators showing a slow down and large possibility of the dollar the hated currency, to begin to correct.
Would you agree that now is a good time to think in terms of buying or accumulating Gold?
You see when I put it all together that is what I come out with. even if went to 1500 don't mean nothing. I assure you if it does hot 1500 I will be buying more.
GOLD
[quote="bumper"...You were not unhappy with him when he said it was going back to 1900.
...[/quote]
I am going to restrain myself, but remember, all I said was I hope Guppy is right. Please don't mis-characterize what I said.
Never hurts to discuss things, but CNBC and all the pundits you get below the charts on Google Finance, have absolutely NOTHING to offer. Might as well go by the number of bearish posts vs bullish ones, and buy accordingly. For every nimrod who says gold is in a bubble, there's a nincompoop who says it's going to 4000.
I think gold is a special case, an emotional commodity mainly, and very hype driven now. Copper, silver, palladium, platinum all have more industrial uses than gold, and so are more like a real commodity. And commodities are getting clobbered just now.
My advice, hang on to gold through Christmas until Chinese New Year, when there is an extra bunch of demand, and then look for a good time to cash out.
At least that's my strategy.
...[/quote]
I am going to restrain myself, but remember, all I said was I hope Guppy is right. Please don't mis-characterize what I said.
Never hurts to discuss things, but CNBC and all the pundits you get below the charts on Google Finance, have absolutely NOTHING to offer. Might as well go by the number of bearish posts vs bullish ones, and buy accordingly. For every nimrod who says gold is in a bubble, there's a nincompoop who says it's going to 4000.
I think gold is a special case, an emotional commodity mainly, and very hype driven now. Copper, silver, palladium, platinum all have more industrial uses than gold, and so are more like a real commodity. And commodities are getting clobbered just now.
My advice, hang on to gold through Christmas until Chinese New Year, when there is an extra bunch of demand, and then look for a good time to cash out.
At least that's my strategy.
GOLD
Well obviously I don't agree with your position, I like using all my tools,that's just me. We are all different and that is how it's supposed to be. I didn't mean any disrespect. With no tone of voice or body language, if it sounded that way I apologize not me intent. I Totally agree with your last sentence and I would put India in that mix as well.
Economies are like living things in constant change. Do a chart in a few weeks you will more then likely get a different result. They are not the Holy Grail. So what did I get out of all that. If it should drop to around the 1500 level I buy again and I'm not selling now.
One of the major changes last night looks like the Greek bailout is going through, eventually that will take the focus off the E.U. Then the focus will go back on the U.S. that will bring the dollar back down and gold will go up. At least that is my believe. As far a I can tell what transpired was the markets went in the dumps. Huge amounts were taken of of Gold cover things investors had leveraged, That will pass and the dollar wont be the safe haven. In my thoughts it never was, then other hand I don't do options.
I still lean to it will test 1900, might have a drop before hand that's just a buying opportunity, which will lead to more profits. I like that.
Economies are like living things in constant change. Do a chart in a few weeks you will more then likely get a different result. They are not the Holy Grail. So what did I get out of all that. If it should drop to around the 1500 level I buy again and I'm not selling now.
One of the major changes last night looks like the Greek bailout is going through, eventually that will take the focus off the E.U. Then the focus will go back on the U.S. that will bring the dollar back down and gold will go up. At least that is my believe. As far a I can tell what transpired was the markets went in the dumps. Huge amounts were taken of of Gold cover things investors had leveraged, That will pass and the dollar wont be the safe haven. In my thoughts it never was, then other hand I don't do options.
I still lean to it will test 1900, might have a drop before hand that's just a buying opportunity, which will lead to more profits. I like that.
GOLD
Another chart different day different guy First guy called the support level at 1545, today's guy 1560. None of this surprises me as I mentioned things change daily. So the indication of that is a minor up trend. Now here is the important part they both believe Gold will test 1900 again. In the intrem it will more then likely go sideways. All positive stuff to me.
Got an extra 5K baht this month on my payday good stuff.
Got an extra 5K baht this month on my payday good stuff.
GOLD
In spite of our different approaches, I admire your attempts to make sense of this. I admit I've got a bit of a 'head in the sand' approach, mainly because I'm busy doing other things, and I think it will turn out all right. I can't afford to be tossed about in this particular sea, at this particular time.
I will watch and learn, and appreciate your sharing.
I will watch and learn, and appreciate your sharing.
GOLD
No problem I had study this stuff for 16 months to learn to trade, stocks. Before that didn't mean a thing to me, just a confusing mess. Pretty soon I will be out and about on the bike so I won't be as active in it.
There is one thing throwing a monkey wrench into the gears. I thought this Euro thing was over cause Germany passed it. Not so every Country of the 17 has an equal vote and they are not all on board at the moment to bail out Greece. That is what is keeping the dollar high.
Euro getting the news attention now, that settles and the states will be in their sights again. A QE-3 before the of the year would not surprise me one bit. The printing presses will be high gear, dollar will be devalued again and gold will go up.
I believe you got on a good buy price and have little to worry about I got in much lower this time already made a profit last time and I will make more. If I didn't believe that I would be buying cheap stocks. Next month I will have more money to invest and it will be a toss up which I go.
I'm back in the black again not much but some.
There is one thing throwing a monkey wrench into the gears. I thought this Euro thing was over cause Germany passed it. Not so every Country of the 17 has an equal vote and they are not all on board at the moment to bail out Greece. That is what is keeping the dollar high.
Euro getting the news attention now, that settles and the states will be in their sights again. A QE-3 before the of the year would not surprise me one bit. The printing presses will be high gear, dollar will be devalued again and gold will go up.
I believe you got on a good buy price and have little to worry about I got in much lower this time already made a profit last time and I will make more. If I didn't believe that I would be buying cheap stocks. Next month I will have more money to invest and it will be a toss up which I go.
I'm back in the black again not much but some.
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randerson79
- udonmap.com
- Posts: 532
- Joined: March 6, 2006, 7:08 am
GOLD
randerson79 wrote:So I made a lucky guess....and got it right! So what part are you calling me a liar? That I bought at 21,400, Sold at 25,950, predicted it would fall to 23,000 in a month or that I bought back at 23,400?KHONDAHM wrote:Ummm...sure ya did...randerson79 wrote:I bought in April for 21,400. Sold it all today at 25,950. I took a nice profit! No more looking at the gold chart every 15 minutes. Taking the girlfriend out for a nice dinner tonight.
I'll buy back in next month at 23,000.One month later..... I bought back at 23,400. By the time I got home (20 minutes) it was at 24,000. [-o< Sure hope I did the right thing. :-"KHONDAHM wrote:I'm marking your post - lol!
Anytime you want to buy me lunch, I'll show you the receipts.
Sold today at 24,300. Have that feeling. Buying back in 2 weeks at 23,000. :-" Kind of like putting dollars in a slot machine.
Still saving those receipts. And waiting for that lunch offer!
GOLD
This, found on a well-known Visa website: http://www.thailandoutlook.tv/tan/ViewD ... ID=1048498
Let's all trade gold futures over the phone!
Let's all trade gold futures over the phone!
GOLD
Hong Kong becomes first center for trading gold in yuan
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15330664
First major step towards becoming a reserve currency...
Both my kids will be learning Cantonese as a third language. Believe it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15330664
First major step towards becoming a reserve currency...
Both my kids will be learning Cantonese as a third language. Believe it.
Enjoy this site much more by adding idiots to your ignore list (Friends & Foes tab).
http:\\www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/ucp.php? ... &mode=foes
http:\\www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/ucp.php? ... &mode=foes
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jackspratt
- udonmap.com
- Posts: 16156
- Joined: July 2, 2006, 5:29 pm
GOLD
(Off topic, but) why Cantonese rather than Mandarin?KHONDAHM wrote:Hong Kong becomes first center for trading gold in yuan
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15330664
First major step towards becoming a reserve currency...
Both my kids will be learning Cantonese as a third language. Believe it.
GOLD
Cantonese is primarily spoken in Hong Kong and southern China. It's the HISO dialect. Sort of like there's Bangkok Thai and then there are other dialects like Isaan (discounting it's Laotian roots for the purpose of this reply).
Enjoy this site much more by adding idiots to your ignore list (Friends & Foes tab).
http:\\www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/ucp.php? ... &mode=foes
http:\\www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/ucp.php? ... &mode=foes
GOLD
Curious as to why the enthusiasm for gold seems to have died down lately 
Dull periods are good times to do some accumulation, no?
Faber seems to think global liquidity is drying up, and that will be a positive for the dollar. Rather than a Euro implosion, we ought be looking at China to drag the globe into recession. Commodity prices down, indicates China is slowing.
On a different note, an interesting report helps to confirm what most people already know about global plutocracy - "the study, by a trio of complex systems theorists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, is the first to go beyond ideology to empirically identify such a network of power."
http://www.readersupportednews.org/news ... -the-world
Dull periods are good times to do some accumulation, no? Faber seems to think global liquidity is drying up, and that will be a positive for the dollar. Rather than a Euro implosion, we ought be looking at China to drag the globe into recession. Commodity prices down, indicates China is slowing.
On a different note, an interesting report helps to confirm what most people already know about global plutocracy - "the study, by a trio of complex systems theorists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, is the first to go beyond ideology to empirically identify such a network of power."
http://www.readersupportednews.org/news ... -the-world
GOLD
The spectacular but short-lived parabolism was fun to see, and to participate in, but it's the grind that gets the money. Now's definitely a good time to round out to an even 100 (baht, shares, bricks, what-have-you).
I have to admit I get nervous whenever I'm inverted, but I do think it's going much higher in Q1 '12. I can wait, and top up as needed.
BTW, VERY interesting article in your link.
I have to admit I get nervous whenever I'm inverted, but I do think it's going much higher in Q1 '12. I can wait, and top up as needed.
BTW, VERY interesting article in your link.
GOLD
If anyone has a true interest in what is going on with gold, I invite you to "PM" me. I will calm your fears and help set you on a "guarenteed" path of "OK, I can live with that". Again, PM me if you really care..if you have "radical" feelings, don't bring it to me. I am not charging anything for what I am offering, because I am in the same boat, but I am confidant at what I am doing. We all didn't see just how "low" the FED would go to destroy everything of value and force us back into the worst fiat in history, the dollar. You don't have to go there.....