GOLD

Post by **semperfiguy** » January 28, 2012, 9:35 am

Generally speaking, for every 8-10 US$ gain/loss in the global price of one troy ounce of gold, the local price for a 1 Baht gold bar will fluctuate by plus/minus 100 baht. Overnight there was a $17 gain and I expected at least a 200 baht gain at first posting. It only went up 50 baht! At one point last week I noticed they dropped it 50 baht on a 50 cent drop in the global prices. I just don't understand it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ordinarily this sort of thing wouldn't bother me, but I can't help but think that somebody...somewhere up the ladder in Thailand is pocketing the spread. And I've also noticed that this sort of disparity most often happens when there's a big gain on Friday evenings and at first price posting on Saturday morning in Thailand it seems we get shorted. Nothing we an do about it...I just needed to rant and rave!

Post by **KHONDAHM** » February 20, 2012, 10:49 pm

Just a comment: If gold shops and the availability of gold in the USA were anything like it is in Thailand, IMO, demand by Americans as an alternative to financial institutions would have sent the gold price up double today's price or more by now. For those unaware, buying 96.5% or 99.99% gold ingots on demand in the USA is like mission impossible. It cannot be ordered without paying hefty premiums of 15-20% or more plus delivery costs.

Post by **KHONDAHM** » March 1, 2012, 12:55 am

Jewelry sales jump 42% in China
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/busine ... 714111.htm

Comex Gold Falls On Bernanke Remarks; Profit-Taking Cited Ahead Of $1,800 Region
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews2 ... pdate.html

"Postby KHONDAHM » August 3, 2011, 6:50 am
Gold remains on a rampage as bulls are reassured following Korea adding 25 tonnes and Germany adding 1,000 tonnes. Yet another new high in all major currencies. The magic number is $1,764. It goes parabolic after that."

"Postby KHONDAHM » August 11, 2011, 5:47 am
Having blown through the technical $1,764 barrier, it appears gold may indeed be going parabolic as I posted previously. $1,849 and $1,936 are the next technical barriers.

Comment: Here we go again. It is rather peculiar that Bernanke gets the urge to tamp down gold when we pass the 1,764 technical barrier...My timing still sucks, but I reckon the market will shrug it off this time. April-May 2012...the reckoning cometh...

Post by **rjj04** » March 1, 2012, 2:22 am

I had expected commercial real estate to implode along with residential real estate. That didn't happen. This article explains why it didn't implode, but that the problems were just delayed and that the fireworks ought to start going off rather soon.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-pos ... coming-end

One more thing, the magnitude of the problem in US commercial real estate makes the residential market problem pale in comparison.

Post by **JimboPSM** » March 1, 2012, 2:41 am

While it is always important to consider the danger of bubbles with commodities, changing circumstances should also be taken into account.

A new factor in the gold price melting pot is that Iran has now indicated that it will accept gold as payment for its oil (somewhat harder to track than conventional banking transactions).

It may just be coincidence, but two of the biggest customers for Iranian oil also two of the biggest holders of gold (privately and nationally)

BBC News: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17203132

Post by **KHONDAHM** » March 1, 2012, 4:59 am

Several nations have walked away from the USD. Most have agreed to direct currency swaps instead because the USD's days of the default reserve currency are coming to an end. That means less demand for USD at a time when it is being created faster and in greater quantities than ever.

We are also seeing nations repatriating their physical gold and accumulating more of it.

This latest move by Iran is only remarkable in that they are finally doing it instead of talking about doing it as they have for years now, but the real motivation is that the USA flexed and had Iran removed from the SWIFT system. Ergo, no access to money transfers.

Post by **randerson79** » March 22, 2012, 5:26 pm

I just noticed that gold is below ฿24,000. What do you think? Time to buy? Further drops?

Post by **jackspratt** » March 22, 2012, 8:27 pm

79, unfortunately if KD answers, it will be under his new nick, so you won't be able to judge the credibility (or otherwise) of the response.

Post by **randerson79** » March 22, 2012, 8:48 pm

Don't worry Jack, He's not the one I wanted advise from anyway.

KHONDAHM wrote:The velocity of price movement is breathtaking. 20% in 3 weeks. Incredible.

I did post it would happen, but my goodness..! Seeing it is quite a show.

I am thinking it is a perfect storm to launch us past USD $2,000 well before the end of the year. Perhaps by September? Keep in mind, the dollar price changes are essentially meaningless this high up in the mountains. It's % change that matters to traders and quants. That means a LOT more volume and huge $ swings.

P.S. @Hangsaboot - That has got to be the funniest avatar I've seen in a while! LOL!

Post by **rct** » March 23, 2012, 3:06 pm

http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/warre ... d-dba-xom/

I read this Warren Buffet quote in a much longer article in another publication and found it interesting:

“I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today’s market prices about $7 trillion dollars – that’s probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States.”

“For $7 trillion dollars…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven ExxonMobils (XOM, quote), and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I’ll take the farmland (DBA, quote) and the ExxonMobils.”

If this was already posted in this thread, forgive me.

Post by **parrot** » March 23, 2012, 3:50 pm

Good food for thought from Warren. Thanks, rct!

Post by **Laan Yaa Mo** » May 11, 2012, 6:44 pm

Where is KhonDahm to explain the recent fall in the price of gold on the world markets? It is $1585 in Canada today. This is the key month, according to him, in which the world will explode in an economic kind of way. It still might but....

Post by **parrot** » May 11, 2012, 7:28 pm

LYM "This is the key month, according to him, in which the world will explode in an economic kind of way."

I read somewhere today that there's a new Mayan calendar....the end of the world isn't going to happen in Dec 2012.

Post by **Laan Yaa Mo** » May 11, 2012, 7:32 pm

Yes, another 'conspiracy' theory has been debunked and sent packing! The world is safe and homefree for awhile. 555+

Post by **KHONDAHM** » June 5, 2012, 3:51 pm

I've posted before and freely admit my timing might be off, but it is never wrong or far from what I post. Did gold hit $2,000 in 2011? No. It traded above $1,900. Sue me.

Did the financial world order fall off a cliff in April? No. It is happening now in June. There are some things are happening this month which very well result in something game-changing hapening over a weekend when the markets are closed. It may also happen after a forced bank holiday (ala Argentina when it collapsed).

The jig is up. Time to pay the piper.

What happened last week? Likely a massive liquidation of gold to cash ahead of the coming redemptions ala 2008. Gold is about to launch. I expect the same action as 2008 except that the USD will bounce due to equity selling but then crash as sellers exchange those dollars for Renminbi (Japan and China now trade directly in Yen and Renminbi - this a viable high volume pathway for dollar to Renmimbi) or Aussie dollars and the like.

Post by **Philrjones** » June 5, 2012, 6:04 pm

Hi,

Yes it'll keep the safe haven status for a while now I think.

I suspect it's heading back up to 1770 or thereabouts by about mid-July. If it breaks through 1775 it should head back up to around 1880 to 1900 level again, perhaps by mid-august. Just some tech analysis - fundamentals will always screw with dates and levels.

Cheers
Phil

Post by TJ » June 6, 2012, 12:10 am

In the US where it is easy to buy and safeguard gold and silver a plan to invest in both is advised.

Look to the GSR, gold:silver ratio. It's been in the 80's in the last few years (it takes 80 oz of silver to by 1 oz of gold) and as low as the 30's. Traditionally the ratio should be 20:1 to 15:1. The idea is when the ratio is high you buy silver with your gold, and when the ratio is low you buy gold with your silver. In the end if you do it right your stack grows larger though you lose some on the buying and the selling. Or you should be buying silver when it's cheap and buy gold when silver is expensive (compared to gold).

Now may be the time to buy silver rather than gold considering the ratio of prices.

Post by **Aardvark** » June 8, 2012, 10:41 am

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/mar ... 6388770518

Post by **Laan Yaa Mo** » June 8, 2012, 7:10 pm

The precious metal took a nosedive today. How can we sue Khondahm?!?

Post by **jackspratt** » June 8, 2012, 7:55 pm

It seems this thread is only active when gold is on the way up.

When gold is heading south, those "in the know" seem to lay dormant.