Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

by **bumper** » August 31, 2010, 5:35 pm

Set Finished at 913, so I was wrong

I sold the stocks I had been planning to sell.

Purchased three new one and accumulated on others.

Profit's now at 90,229

45K is in cash. So when I catch a drop I will accumulate again. I secured some heavy dividends for next month in the process.

So a good day for me even if lost a bit of profit for today.

by **bumper** » September 1, 2010, 10:37 am

I'm at an interesting position now, Thaistocks has called this as a Bull Market. So what do I want to do buy stocks what else.

But, now that means gong to the savings account got the OK from the boss. But. that takes me off plan.

Thoughts anyone?

by **JimboPSM** » September 1, 2010, 11:11 am

When you have a plan that works, there should be very good reasons for changing the plan.

In investing it is all too easy to get sucked into something that has an illusion of being better.

With all the "talk" about the probabilities of a double dip in western markets I would be wondering where the sales are going to come from which would justify a bull market?

Thailand is still very reliant on the US as a customer and the appreciation of the THB (or depreciation of the USD) is straining that relationship - can China really replace the US as a market at a time when the Chinese Government is is reigning in its financial markets and growth prospects?

Vietnam only recently devalued the Dong - that would seem to indicate that Asian countries may be fighting each other for what is currently a worldwide market limited by prospects of, at worst double dip or at best a slow recovery.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it :-k

by **bumper** » September 1, 2010, 11:24 am

Thanks

by **arjay** » September 1, 2010, 11:32 am

I just spotted that the SET today is at a 14 year high. that would lead me not to put any more money into the market at this time.

by **JimboPSM** » September 1, 2010, 11:49 am

Further thoughts.

Thailand has been enjoying a lot of favourable sentiment and consequent upward momentum – but it is based on reports and figures that I simply cannot get to stack up (although my analysis may be flawed).

For instance, reports of the return of the tourists seem to be at odds with hotel occupancy reports which would seem to be backed up by low utilisation of and the closing of restaurants and bars in tourist areas.

Just had a quick look at a couple of hotel reservation sites and rates in Bangkok are about as low as I have seen in the last decade!

All the financial commentators and economists seem to be singing from the same hymn book - it is very unusual (and in my cynical mind, suspicious) to get such a high degree of consensus.

I can’t escape my worries about the Emperor’s new clothes, but I must be wrong as no financial commentators or economists seem to share my fears - and we all know from the last few years that the financial commentators and economists are always right :-k

by **arjay** » September 1, 2010, 12:58 pm

Jimbo, I did hear the following in a bar the other day. You may initially think what's this all about, or indeed what has this to do with the topic, but bear with it.

He said, that all the Lao people coming across the Nong Khai Friendship bridge on a daily basis for local shopping, local business, visiting, sight seeing, entertainment or whatever, along with the likes of himself AND his Thai wife returning from visa or other visits to Laos, were all classed as "Tourists" (upon arriving in Thailand). And that such practices were the norm at other entry points.

Initially I thought what was the guy on about, but then I realised, that I think he was meaning that the Thai authorities were playing a numbers game, to be able to state higher "tourist" statistics. I have no idea what proof he had of his assertion. Such a practice, of thus being able to present a more favourable picture of things to the world than the real reality, wouldn't however surprise me or my cynical views.

by **bumper** » September 1, 2010, 3:02 pm

Actually guy I have never taken into consideration tourist. There are huge projects going on and starting in Thailand this year. Exports are odd as well, they don't talk much about America being a place to sell to. The talk about China and India.

A good example of foreign money coming in Is Ford is putting 350 mil in dollars for a Mazda production plant. Toyota is enlarging it's capacity.

Then you have a lot of foreign money going right into the SET, simply because even a dummy like me can make in it. When you see the drastic drops that is the individual foreign , money going out.

Tourist probably mean a lot to someone but my stocks are related to industry not tourist. So them being here or not being here have little effect on the overall market. At least in my little of bit of investing.

by **bumper** » September 1, 2010, 5:41 pm

SET closed at 919.34

Forgot to take some of my stocks with it so the profits is down to 87,963 Minus 2266

by **bumper** » September 2, 2010, 7:43 am

Shaping up like another good day. hopefully my stocks will join them today. Since things are going as they are if they hit a 10% loss I'm holding. unless it's an exceptional buy, I'm not buying. In reading Graham I finally found the the definition if dollar averaging. It mean to put in the exact same amount of money each month come or shine. I think it would be effective if you use the 10% stop loss.

Markets start September with a bang; Dow up 255
Stocks start month with a big rally after signs of growth in US, Chinese manufacturing

Traders and specialists work the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange after the start of trading, Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2010, in New York. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped nearly 115 points in early morning trading. Broad indexes also rose more than 1 percent. (AP Photo/David Karp)

NEW YORK (AP) -- The fear that has been hanging over markets for most of August lifted on Wednesday. For how long remains anyone's guess.

The stock market started September with a jolt, turning sharply higher after a pair of encouraging reports on manufacturing sent investors seeking out riskier investments. Prices for the safest assets -- Treasurys, gold and the dollar -- all fell.

With investors suddenly willing to embrace risk, the Dow Jones industrial average added 255 points, its best day since July 7. All 30 stocks in the Dow closed higher. That marked a sharp break from August, when the market's most widely used index turned in its worst performance for the month in nine years.

Reports of stronger-than-expected manufacturing growth in China and the U.S snapped a run of discouraging data on the economy, including dismal readings on home sales and economic output. The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity in the U.S. rose in August, in contrast to regional reports from recent weeks that pointed to a slowdown.

"It gives us hope that things may not be as bad as they seem," said Zahid Siddique, an associate portfolio manager at Gabelli Equity Trust Inc.

The Dow gained 254.75 points, or 2.5, percent to close at 10,269.47. Industrial stocks such as General Electric Co. and Caterpillar Inc. were among the Dow's biggest gainers.

Analysts cautioned that the gains, like many others the market has seen in recent weeks, could quickly pass. A bad surprise from the Labor Department's monthly report on employment, due out Friday, could investors back into hiding.

The good news on manufacturing "gives some comfort, but that is only good until the next number," said Darell Krasnoff, managing director at Bel Air Investment Advisors.

Even with its gains Wednesday, the Dow is still 989 points below its high this year of 11,258 reached on April 26. Nearly half of those losses, or 451 points, came in August as the market was bombarded with bad news on the economy.

Daniel Penrod, senior industry analyst at the California Credit Union League, said manufacturing reports have become increasingly important because they are a leading indicator for whether companies might start adding new jobs.

"If manufacturers ramp up ... it's going to require hiring," Penrod said. "Getting closer to that threshold (of hiring) is vital to the economy."

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 30.96, or 3 percent, to 1,080.29. The S&P 500 lost 4.7 percent in August, its worst showing for the month since 2001, when the dot-com bubble was imploding. The Nasdaq gained 62.81, or 3 percent, to 2,176.84.

About six stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 4.5 billion shares.

Safety assets fell broadly. Gold slipped $2.20 to settle at $1,248.10 an ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.58 percent from 2.47 percent late Tuesday. The yield on government debt anchors borrowing rates for a wide variety of consumer and business loans.

In corporate news, Burger King Holdings Inc. jumped $2.41, or 14.7 percent, to $18.86 on reports it could be taken private. Apple Inc. shares rose $7.23, or 3 percent, to $250.33 after CEO Steve Jobs announced a new line of iPods.

GE rose 53 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $15.01. Eaton Corp. climbed $5.38, or 7.7 percent, to $74.86.

AP Business Writer Matthew Craft contributed to this story.

(This version CORRECTS 14th paragraph to note yield rose to 2.58 percent)

by **JimboPSM** » September 2, 2010, 11:49 am

bumper wrote:...... dollar averaging. It mean to put in the exact same amount of money each month

Same as pound cost averaging - time has shown it to be one of the least risky ways of investing, it might limit the upside, but more importantly it limits the downside.

Markets start September with a bang; Dow up 255
Stocks start month with a big rally after signs of growth in US....

NEW YORK (AP) -- The fear that has been hanging over markets for most of August lifted on Wednesday. For how long remains anyone's guess...

The stock market started September with a jolt, turning sharply higher after a pair of encouraging reports on manufacturing sent investors seeking out riskier investments. Prices for the safest assets -- Treasurys, gold and the dollar -- all fell.

With investors suddenly willing to embrace risk, the Dow Jones industrial average added 255 points, its best day since July 7. All 30 stocks in the Dow closed higher. That marked a sharp break from August, when the market's most widely used index turned in its worst performance for the month in nine years........

In my view it looked like a fairly classic case of "buy on the rumour" - the "chatter" that I saw on Bloomberg and CNBC appeared to be focused domestically and primarily on the issuing of the new Consumer Confidence report, all other economic matters (in comparison) were hardly given a mention.

by **bumper** » September 2, 2010, 5:19 pm

Jimbo there is supposed to be a way to get the Thai Set charts on Bloomberg, do you know how that works?

SET finished at 920.54

my profits are down to 77,294

That is the biggest one day loss I have had to date.

So the bus was moving and my stocks didn't get on *()(*^ . I think what is happening the SET is going up because of foreign money and they are buying big caps, I don't hold any of those. So right now I just going to sit though this, till it's my turn again

by **JimboPSM** » September 2, 2010, 6:24 pm

SET chart can be found on this page:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SET:IND

Copy of page today:

: Bloomberg-SET.jpg (56.48 KiB) Viewed 65 times

The bottom chart is "interactive" with options from 1 day to 5 years and comparisons with other indexes that Bloomberg monitors can also be made on it.

by **bumper** » September 2, 2010, 7:21 pm

Thanks impressive now I will learn to use it.

Thanks

by **bumper** » September 3, 2010, 5:47 pm

What week back to 87K now and 60K is in cash.

Trying to catch a large cap on a dip, that will 48K when I do and the only large cap I own, that's just 2000 shares

Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

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