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Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 19, 2010, 10:02 am

Excellent Jimbo as usual. Mine was a try I didn't like the results. I think the method T.J spoke of would be more rewarding although a taking a little longer. Buy in after the the fall on the stock. This is of course means looking a good value stock for the best time to buy. It's amazing my dividends doe six months in is already 7462 baht.

I'm a little concerned about the market next week with the 3-G fiasco. so I went to a 25% cash position, till I see how things shakes out. I'm not to concerned about my existing portfolio are solid stocks so even if they take a hit they will eventually come back. These Bull markets are very different then where I started. That alone makes me nervous it won't go up forever there will be a correction.

I didn't do this I and I regret it on another forum about four months ago a rumor started about True. If you look at the company it's no value stock. The rumor big things are going to happen. No mention of the 3-G auction. Day traders did very well on it it rose and fell so many times I can't even count them. Had I got into that I would have not lost the 27K if I been willing to to stay on top of it. What the did was buy in dirt cheap, sale it at a given goal. Wait till ti fail back again and repeat the process.

The only real value you stock in that auction was Advanc ( AIS) That has now went down to 81.75 I sold it at 91 Good solid company good. I might buy back into as long term hold, great dividends.

Taxes I took care of that it's my wife's account, the only thing your taxed on here is dividends. They have made that very simple the money is deducted before you are paid. Before anyone says anything I trust my wife more then the U.S. Government actions these days. :-"

Having a disability retirement I stay under the radar I don't have to file and I want to keep it that way. If I accumulate more then 10K dollars cash in my name then I have to file, not going to happen. Everything that I do house and all are for my wife's benefit. You see my wife a earns it. I know where I would be today if I had not met her. I would still be in the wild east with my motorcycle and dropping those bar fines. In that never ending search to find what I have now.

My retirement is sufficient enough that I could easily live that life style if that's what I wanted.

I'm happy I have a home that, I live in and meets my needs and want just fine. I don't have to own just have to be comfortable. I don't worry about being thrown out I financed it, someone got to make those payments that someone is me. The stocks have kept me active in learning for six months now and probably will for a very long time. In the end I'm a very lucky guy. Got hurt on the right job, Social Security alone, it would be very hard to live here these days.

In the meantime I get to enjoy my life so not a bad deal.

I'm very confused about tomorrow, if the Courts allow the auction to proceed, do you jump back in and how, knowing that by the afternoon things may change again. The impression I have is there really is no end to this until it hits the Constitutional Court.

Advanc I have no problem with if I can get it at it's current price.

True on the other hand will go sky high again, so does one jump in in the morning sale at lunch and move on? That's a big question. One that I don't have clue about. Ive never studied day trading.

If the auction is stopped again things get real simple, get ready for the hammering the market will probably take as foreigners exit. But then again I will get more baht for my dollar :lol:

Might just solve a lot of problems.
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 19, 2010, 10:40 am

Interesting I just had a quick chat with a guy who is a day trader he said leave TRUE alone try to pickup advanc.(AIS) He also said not to buy At the opening as stocks tend to go up in the morning. He is a successful day trader made a lot of money on True, so if he says to give it a pass that's good enough for me.

In the end I want Advanc auction or no Auction
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 20, 2010, 5:32 pm

Chinese market are pretty much out of the picture this week, To include Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan. They are open. but it's holidays so not much Volume. I picked the stocks today that had good volume so I'm now at 16. For the rest of this week, they are on auto pilot I will let them simmer and see what really breaks out.

At first I thought people were buying back into the 3-G mess, as Advanc (AIS) gained value. Upon closer examination both TRUE and DTAC fell. ADVANC is below it value auction or no auction. So I will try get some shares tomorrow. I hoping a few fall out tomorrow. I gave up on the auction lesson learned. But I like value stocks.

OK time for the tell of the tape

Profit is at 46926 That represents 1847 baht down.

That's not surprising the shares I purchased today haev not have had time to work yet. I don't expect much change until next week. The stocks I added today have been on the watch list for six months so not just throwing darts.

Kelive says foreigners were net sellers today, fall out from the 3-G auction?

Or just a slow week don't know
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 21, 2010, 10:05 am

Spoke to my broker today, a rare experience since she speaks very little English and my Thai isn't sufficient for business conversations. She said the technical show not to buy advanc until it falls under 90.

Yesterday was something to see all of sudden my Watch list woke up, now if it holds who knows.

Kelive says foriegn buyers have been net sellers since the 3-G fiasco. I now see that Koon Korn has is entertaining giving the 3-G process to CAT and TOT and a auction won't be necessary. Sound like Government competing with Private enterprise and that could be the real story, who knows.

I believe with all the Asian holiday we are probably looking a slow week.

So far CNBC has been handling the interviews with silk cloves.

Watch Obama's special last night, might as well have went to sleep nothing was said of substance just a campaign opportunity.
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby parrot » September 21, 2010, 10:29 am

Interesting comment in today's BP about the auction.
"Mr Sataporn said CAT Telecom insisted the NTC's licensing authority was based on the out-of-date 1997 constitution. The 2007 charter gave the authority to hand out licences to the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC), which has yet to be formed."

So now it appears the country is operating with parts of 2 constitutions.....the one the people wrote in 1997 and the one the military rewrote in 2007. No wonder the right hand doesn't know what the left is doing!

I seem to remember Thaksin being within striking distance of privatizing CAT and TOT....to the point where TOT changed their signs to include the word 'private' in their name. That came to a screeching halt after the coup and the new government dropped all the plans to privatize (i.e. give away national assets) TOT CAT EGAT etc. Too bad for the country.
Hope I'm not straying off topic.......but this is why I consider it so dicey dabbling in the Thai stock market. In the US it was bad enough with folks like Bernie Maddoff, but the wheeling-dealing over here is beyond my comprehension.
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 21, 2010, 11:49 am

No not off topic at all. It's interesting to watch some of the responses from the NTC, no body got hurt. I Guess he didn't look at all the investors that took it in the shorts. That being said all three stocks are up again. The only real value stock is is ADVANC ( AIS) But that below 90. Not where it's at. My position is if the courts are involved or the Governm,ent best to stay away. What ha happened isn't all that bad except you have the Government wanting to compete wit the private sector.

Where did it really go bad, the last minute filings in court. If I have followed this correctly CAT and TOT's boards didn't let them file to the last minute. Supposedly the nTC went through the right process getting cabinet approval. Maybe a different direction to get a court ruling if that is who is going to decide if projects like this or Map project. Before hadn't remember that most of the Map project had already been in the construction process.

Coming from eh West we don't look at Constitutions for this kind of thing but codified law. That really doesn't exist here. Same sort of thing happened in our village. It's built out time to move o we are all thinking we will be absorbed by Nong Bua. So no effort really put forward to make sure that would happen.

Now what really happened was Nong Bua refused to take the village as this or that wasn't right. So where do we end up on no mans land we are not really private nor or we covered within a Government agency. We have ended up a situation if we want street lights a loos group of people pay for them. We are responsible for road repairs ect.

Now here is the big question why turn it down now that it's finished where was the City's inspector when while it was being built. So you can get into these kinds of situation and have nothing to do with the market.

Are there risks in this market of course there are in any Market. Was I happy about his fiasco NO! That being said the rest of my portfolio is just fine. It turned into a 27K lesson in WBU for me. That being said I'm still in the black. But this kind of thing I believe I will stay away from. lesson learned no need to repeat it.

Keep in mind I came no where close to losing all my money, I lost a portion of my profits.

So in that aspect I don't really see it much different then any other market. A well known company healthy operating oil rigs. one mistake and all of sudden if your a share holder your taking a big hit. Thailand has a long ways to go to resolve these kinds of things. So I won't let one sour experience make me walk away. If that is all it takes I would say that investing probably isn't a good idea. You have to be willing to take some hits from time to time goes with the territory.

It shook me up pretty good at first believe me. But when you go through logical thinking the risk was there when you started and i will always be there no matter what market your in. The only thing you can do is try limit your exposure, if you want to do more with you money then get 1% for it.

Aberdeen is a excellent Mutual fund risks are a lot lower, That being said how many of us retires feel confident that we have 20 years to let it work. I sure don't. So I don't blame the market. As to the Constitutions I think your right. But I had my lesson I shared it with all. Still doesn't make me want to take the crumbs off the table from the banks. Banks are in a no win completely. You don't even get the fees through the month covered by the interest rates you are given.

I don\'t think I have beat the exchange rate yet But I have beat the bank interest. Things f get crazy in the market I get out in mins. Nothing I can do about the bank rates.

There is a lot more to this 3-G aspect that is not on the surface. Why would the Finance Minisiter want to do a conversion. It's power, this aspect of each entity has to protect itself from the very Government they work for, never heard of anything like that before.

So lot's to be wondering about for m it just means don't get involved in the silliness again.

All that being said you make very valid points. This was the first time I stepped away fro Thaistocks position, it has it's value. The truth is the move was moved by greed my mistake. It was never a part of my original plan to even make money this year. So I have to watch my own greed and exercise more patience. I hold my self responsible for that.
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 21, 2010, 4:01 pm

See here in lies the problem they seem to be pretty proud of this, worthy of a news release.


TMB Bank on Monday will raise the fixed deposit rates by 0.15-0.20 per cent.

Its 3-month fixed deposit rate will be raised from 0.85 per cent to 1 per cent. Meanwhile, the fixed 24-month rate will be 1.95 per cent from 1.75 per cent.
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 21, 2010, 5:17 pm

SET finished at 937.21

Got some profits back today I'm at 51,831 now that's the direction I like
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 22, 2010, 9:38 am

It was funny this morning I watched the CNBC interviews. They had he head of the SET on a quiet lay back kind of guy. Then they had brokers representing the Bulls and Bears on he Market. The bull gave a articulate reason why he thought the SET would continue growing. The bears his position was that there would be a 30% correction in the near future. I guess he was there for the free advertising. Never said one word about the SET or Thailand
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 22, 2010, 5:19 pm

Set 945

Profit 50,141

loss 1672
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 23, 2010, 5:21 pm

Profit 49008

Loss 1133

SET 947.10

I'm still going to let them simmer another day. Next week I have to consider moving on from the non performing or losing positions and move into some Big Caps. SET is going back up. But. the small and med. Caps are not moving. Another thing I have to take into consideration is all the Asia holidays this week.

So I'm not real sure if this was a good simmer period. Perhaps a little longer is called for.
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 24, 2010, 9:39 am

You think, did the light finally go on

3G
3G delay 'will deter investors'
By USANEE MONGKOLPORN,
WICHIT CHAITRONG
THE NATION
Published on September 24, 2010

The delay in the 3G-licence auction could erode investor confidence because both cellular operators and consumers would suffer opportunity losses, a senior Bank of Thailand official said yesterday.
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Suchart Sakkarnkosol, senior director of the central bank's domestic economy division, said that although the telecom industry accounts for a small share of the economy, the regulatory setback to third-generation wireless services could spook investors the same way as the Map Ta Phut debacle.

"Investor sentiment could be affected because they have prepared to make the investment. But the bidding has been pushed out. This will create opportunity losses for both the operators and consumers," he said.

The Supreme Administrative Court ruled earlier yesterday to suspend the National Telecommunications Commis-sion's 3G-2.1-gigahertz licensing regulations and its licence auction plan, pending CAT Telecom's legal challenge of the NTC's licensing authority at the Central Administrative Court.

Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said the three private cellular operators could provide the 3G service on their existing spectrums if permitted by the two state enterprises that granted their concessions.

TOT or CAT Telecom could give the service provision for the 3G service to the cellular operators by sending the case to the Information and Communications Technology Ministry, which could then forward it to the Cabinet for approval, he said.

Advanced Info Service (AIS) has already launched 3G service on a commercial trial basis using the 900-megahertz frequency granted by TOT. Total Access Communication (DTAC) and TrueMove have each launched 3G service on a non-commercial trial basis using the 850MHz band granted by CAT Telecom.

Korn is convinced the 3G licences could be awarded in the middle of next year when the National Broadcasting and Telecom-munications Commission (NBTC) is expected to get off the ground.

Most of the members of the House of Representatives, which yesterday considered the frequency allocation bill governing the establishment of the NBTC, supported the formation of a joint House/Senate committee to vet the bill. They are expected to vote on the bill next Wednesday. But most opposed the Senate's amended version, which increased the number of commissioners to 15 from 11, questioning whether the move was influenced by interest groups.

ICT Minister Chuti Krairiksh said his ministry would work with all parties to ask the Constitution Court to interpret the scope of the NTC's authority, otherwise the telecom industry would be caught in a regulatory vacuum. The ministry would work with its legal department today or next week to find ways to approach the court.

True Corp chief executive Supachai Chearavanont said the industry was in limbo now, adding that the NTC should consult with the Constitution Court to clear up issues over its licensing authority.

He referred to the government's plan to convert mobile-phone concessions into NTC licences and the permission to allow concession holders to provide the 3G service on their existing spectra.

But he doubts that any private telecom operators will invest in providing 3G on their existing spectra without an extension to their concession, since the concession terms will end soon and the telecom operators have to transfer their networks to the state telecom enterprises.

TrueMove's concession expires in 2013, AIS's in 2015 and DTAC's in 2018.

Dhanin Chearavanont, CEO of Charoen Pokphand Group, one of the country's lar-gest conglomerates, which owns True Corp, said the failure in 3G licensing would cause damage in the long run. However, Dhanin said True was not focusing on only 3G mobile service on the 2.1MHz spectrum because it was now working on a trial for upgrading its current 2G, 850MHz network to 3G. The firm also provides other services such as Internet access and cable TV.

Somprasong Boonyachai, executive chairman of Shin Corp, the parent of AIS, said that as a telecom operator, AIS's business had to proceed as usual.

But speaking as a Thai, he feels the country has lost the chance to reform the industry, changing it from a concession to a licensing regime.

"The telecom sector should have been in the new chapter a long time ago," he said.

AIS CEO Wichien Mektrakarn said the auction fiasco had definitely affected the telecom industry by depriving the country and people of the opportunity to enjoy modern technology, while the company also misses new business opportunities.

He said AIS was not interested in spending more on providing 3G service on its existing 900MHz band, given that its concession is over in 2015, making the investment infeasible.

DTAC CEO Tore Johnsen said the company respected the court ruling. But he felt disappointed that the granting of the 3G spectrum licences had been derailed. Thailand needs wireless broadband access to help develop the country, he said. As a result of the ruling, DTAC will focus on 2G service but is committed to the 3G technology, and he hopes all problems will be settled soon so the industry can move forward.

It will take a long time before the NBTC can be established but consumers need 3G service now, he added.
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby TJ » September 24, 2010, 2:42 pm

It is so difficult to be patient when managing stocks. Many of my losses have occured when I decided to micromanage my stocks. IMO it is be better to leave a good selection of stock alone and simply be alert for significant events that will be most likely to reduce all stock values. At that time sell all or most stocks and await the turn around.

BTW it would be interesiting to know how many insiders made fortunes from the 3G-licence auction fiasco. TIT
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 24, 2010, 3:33 pm

Had a knowledgeable friend go through my portfolio going give a leave alone and see where it goes,
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Re: Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

Postby bumper » September 24, 2010, 4:48 pm

I now have six stocks and I will do nothing with them and see what happens, that is going to hard for me to do.

Profit 48799

loss 214

SET 951.90
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