Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

by **bumper** » June 7, 2010, 5:20 pm

The MAI index did well by me today. set was down 11.63 points and the MAI up by 1.23 points which left me up 5.3% after taking my profit. This is one the things Paul talks about in his approach. Hey what can I say seems to work.

Today saw the EURO hit hard, why because a new government in Hungary said that it was going the way of Greece. Now they are saying they were wrong, coupled with the less then impressive job numbers in the states. The Asian and all Markets were down today. Sounds to me like a knee jerk reaction now the next thing, how long before things get back on track.

No complaints from me did better then I thought I would

by **bumper** » June 8, 2010, 4:21 pm

Well I gained a bit today pretty much flat, but that is better then I was expecting with all the fuss going on across the world. I took a good profit, so I expect things will slow for me for a while.

The idea was to share this experience with other people who had not invested before and learn from others that are active investors. So I don't think I will post everyday now unless there is something very unusual going on.

I'm at 5/34% positive now lets see where I'm at the end of the week

by **bumper** » June 11, 2010, 6:44 pm

Ended the week at 6.42 % up no complaints here

by **bumper** » June 12, 2010, 9:48 am

I thought this was interesting my Portfolio, didn't decline it gained.

Asian Stocks Fall for a Second Week on U.S. Jobs, Euro Concerns
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By Masaki Kondo

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for a second week after a U.S. jobs report missed economist estimates and concern grew that Europe’s crisis of government debt is spreading.

LG Electronics Inc., which counts North America as its biggest market, slumped 11 percent in Seoul this week after a government report showed U.S. employers hired fewer workers in May than forecast. Nintendo Co., a Japanese game maker that gets 34 percent of its sales in Europe, retreated 8.1 percent after the euro weakened. Mitsui & Co., which holds a stake in an oil field operated by BP Plc where an oil spill is unfolding, tumbled 9.5 percent in Tokyo on concern earnings will suffer.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.9 percent to 112.44 this week. The gauge plunged 3.3 percent on June 7, its steepest drop since March 30, 2009, after a Hungarian government official said the country’s economy was in a “very grave situation.”

“What I’m afraid of is that the volatility of the euro can trigger turmoil in the financial markets, prompting investors to reduce risk assets including stocks,” said Akio Yoshino, chief economist in Tokyo at Societe Generale Asset Management (Japan) Inc., which manages the equivalent of $18 billion.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled 2 percent this week even as a government report showed Japan’s gross domestic product rose at an annualized 5 percent rate in the three months ended March 31, faster than the 4.2 percent projected by economists.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.3 percent in Sydney, as gains in oil and copper prices lifted mining companies. The statistics bureau reported on June 10 that the jobless rate fell to 5.2 percent in May from 5.4 percent from the previous month.

U.S. Jobs

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has slumped about 13 percent from its high this year on April 15 amid growing concern European countries in addition to Greece will struggle to curb their budget deficits or repay debt. The decline has dragged the average price of companies in the gauge to 14.4 times estimated earnings, compared with 20.1 times at the beginning of this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Companies relying on demand in the U.S. dropped after Labor Department figures on June 4 showed the country’s private payrolls rose by 41,000, trailing the 180,000 gain projected by economists. LG Electronics Inc., South Korea’s No. 2 electronics maker, lost 11 percent to 94,600 won. James Hardie Industries SE, the biggest seller of home siding in the U.S., slumped 8.6 percent to A$6.9 in Sydney.

The euro sank to an eight-year low against the yen this week, depreciating to as low as 108.08 on June 7. A weaker euro reduces the value of European income at Japanese companies.

‘Grave Situation’

Nintendo, the maker of the Wii video-game machine, fell 8.1 percent to 24,480 yen. Sony Corp., which makes the rival PlayStation 3 player, declined 7.2 percent to 2,571 yen. Honda Motor Co., a carmaker that gets 81 percent of its revenue outside Japan, slipped 7.8 percent to 2,606 yen.

Peter Szijjarto, a spokesman for the Hungarian Prime Minister, said on June 4 that the nation’s economy is in a “very grave situation” and that it was “no exaggeration” to talk about a default. State Secretary Mihaly Varga said the next day that comments about a possible default were “unfortunate.”

“We might as well think Hungary is in the same situation as Greece,” said Societe Generale’s Yoshino. “I remember Greece’s announcement on its deficit didn’t appear to be a big deal in the media coverage at first.”

Fitch Ratings further fueled concern about Europe after saying June 8 that the U.K. is facing a “formidable” challenge in curtailing its budget shortfalls. In April, Greece, Spain and Portugal had their credit ratings cut by Standard & Poor’s as spending to stimulate their economies swelled budget deficits.

Mitsui Tumbles

Mitsui, Japan’s second-biggest trading company by market value, tumbled 9.5 percent to 1,092, this week’s biggest drop on the Nikkei 225. Through its subsidiary, the company holds a 10 percent stake in the Mississippi Canyon 252 block in the Gulf of Mexico, the location of BP’s leaking well. The worst spill in U.S. history has cost BP $1.25 billion, the company said June 7.

Commodity-linked shares advanced as prices for oil and copper rose. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, climbed 1.9 percent to A$38.58 in Sydney, and Rio Tinto Group, the world’s No. 3 mining company, gained 2.2 percent to A$69.1. Oil jumped 4.8 percent this week before Asian markets closed, while copper gained 2.1 percent.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: June 11, 2010 17:57 EDT

by **Sandy** » June 15, 2010, 11:28 am

Thanks to the OP for sharing your experiences. I am fairly new to this also and thought I would let folks know about another really good source of info which I came across a few weeks ago. It's a new book called Your Investment Guide to Thailand, and I got it from the bookshop at Suvanabhumi airport. Its published locally - Silkworm Books is the company, and it sells for 695 baht. Covers every type of investment and it's written in a way that is easy to understand, and not too technical. A good read and well worth looking out for.

by **bumper** » June 18, 2010, 3:34 pm

Ended last week at 6.42 % this week 11.55% up no complaints here.

I'm currently reading The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing by Jason Kelly. The publisher is Asia Books. It's not available it web site so you have to call them for it and they will , mail it to you.

It doesn't deal with the Thai Market Directly. It gives the basics for newbies at this. I was having a difficult time with the language of the market it covers that very well. It also deal with fundamentals of doing research and charting.

Lays out different strategy's in a basic language format. It is perfect fro me since I don't anything/ Thaistocks.com and Paul have done very well by me, just following the model portfolio. But. I think even if you do have an adviser. You still need to learn the basics.

I had a question about the other recommended book, does it also Contain information about living here getting Visa's ECt?

If it does what percentage is related to investing in Thai Stocks?

by **Sandy** » June 18, 2010, 5:00 pm

Hi Bumper. The book I mentioned "Your Investment Guide to Thailand" walks you through the whole process from initial research, getting bank account, transferring money, choosing brokers, etc, basically getting yourself fully organised then developing an investment strategy.

There is only one chapter specifically on investing in Thai stocks (it's in the second section of the book ... together with other chapters on managed funds, gold, bonds, property etc.) BUT a lot of the stuff in other sections of the book is relevant to all forms of Thai investment - including stocks. I'd suggest finding it in a bookstore and having a good look through and you'll see what I mean.

by **cookie** » June 19, 2010, 9:22 am

Thai exports up 42 pct

Thailand's exports in May increased by 42.1 per cent year-on-year, a 22-month high, according to Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai.

Exports in May reached USD16.55 billion while imports amounted to USD14.34 billion.

May's trade surplus was at USD2.21 billion.

The Nation

by **bumper** » June 19, 2010, 9:39 am

I was chatting with a friend yesterday and felt the bottom was going to fall out. Really doesn't look like it.

The electronic stocks I hold are going great guns. They don't make the cell phones I-Pads computers ect. But, they do make the components that go into them. So you are no tying up huge sums of cash in buying something like a Sony product. But that little company grows as well and you profit.

I have to be honest without Paul at Thiastocks I would never have thought of even looking at the stocks I hold.

by **cookie** » June 19, 2010, 3:47 pm

and there seems to be no end to the positive news of the Thai stock market :

Foreign capital inflows at 'normal rate'

* Published: 19/06/2010 at 02:56 PM

Foreign capital flowing into Thailand at present is still normal, with most invested in the equities market, according to Bank of Thailand (BoT) assistant governor Suchada Kirakul.

Ms Suchada noted that large foreign capital inflows into Thailand, especially in the past three days into the Thai stock market, resulted from uncertainty in the global market, public debt problems faced by some European countries, worries over US economic problems and from the strict supervision by some Asian governments over foreign capital inflows into their countries.

She said so far there were neither abnormal signs nor speculation on the foreign capital inflows into Thailand after several Asian countries such as Indonesia issued a stern order that foreign inflows into its stock market must stay there at least one month.

The BoT felt that such measures are still unnecessary while it is closely monitoring inflows and outflows, said Ms Suchada. More foreign capital inflows are expected to enter Thailand as many believe that Thai economy would continue to improve.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand index on Friday closed at 791.85 points, up 2.9 per cent from a week ago.

by **bumper** » June 19, 2010, 5:20 pm

During the protests huge amounts of foreign money went out. No reason to believe they won't came back as things stabilize. Thailand definetly has it quirks. But it has more cash then bills, that is not real easy to find in Countries today. The buy prices are inexpensive. The most expensive stock I hold at the moment is 26.75 ( baht) a share

The more I read this current book, the more I understand what Paul at Thaistocks does. His research goes far beyond what I could do. With my little 2000 share I don't think I can call the CFO of one of these companies and chat with him. :lol:

But, it is good to understand the process.

by **bumper** » June 20, 2010, 4:43 pm

Roach, O’Neill Say China Yuan Move Shows Confidence in Recovery
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By Gopal Ratnam and Timothy R. Homan

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- China’s decision to allow a more flexible yuan shows the country’s leaders are convinced the world economic rebound is durable, said economists Stephen Roach and Jim O’Neill.

“This move is a vote of confidence in the global recovery,” Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. said in an e-mail. “Markets are going to like” the decision, said Jim O’Neill, chief global economist for Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

China’s central bank said the decision to “increase the renminbi’s exchange-rate flexibility” was made after the world’s third-largest economy improved. Chinese authorities had prevented the currency from strengthening since July 2008 to help exporters cope with sliding demand triggered by the global financial crisis.

The announcement yesterday may help restore investor confidence shaken by the European debt crisis, O’Neill said in an interview in St. Petersburg, Russia.

“It could be that China is doing its bit to rescue the world markets,” he said. “It may allow for attention to be diverted from the obsession with the European monetary union and the sovereign currencies in Europe.”

China’s decision, a week before Group of 20 leaders meet in Toronto to consider ways to safeguard the economic recovery, may deflect criticism that its undervalued currency has added to lopsided global flows of trade and investment. The announcement signals an end to the currency’s two-year-old peg to the dollar.

‘Not a Panacea’

Even so, Roach said the shift “is not a panacea for an unbalanced global economy.” Countries such as China with trade surpluses will have to take steps to stimulate private demand, he said, while countries such as the U.S. “need to show a credible commitment to fiscal consolidation and take actions that would boost personal saving.”

The People’s Bank of China ruled out a one-time revaluation, saying there is no basis for “large-scale appreciation,” and kept the yuan’s 0.5 percent daily trading band unchanged. The yuan is a denomination of China’s currency, the renminbi.

The currency appreciated 21 percent in the three years after a peg to the dollar was scrapped in July 2005 and replaced by a managed float against a basket of currencies including the euro and the Japanese yen.

China’s announcement could be seen as a signal that the “worst of the financial crisis is over, China is growing very strongly, that this is an auspicious time to go back to the policy that had initially been announced,” Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said in a telephone interview yesterday with Bloomberg News.

Gains Unclear

Lardy said it’s unclear how much the currency will be allowed to strengthen.

“I think if they had in mind some indication of a specific amount, they might have announced that today. I would not anticipate a second announcement; the markets are just going to see.”

O’Neill predicted the yuan will appreciate 1 percent when markets open June 21 and predicts a 5 percent appreciation by year’s end.

Chinese exports have helped drive growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

China’s overseas sales jumped 48.5 percent in May from a year earlier, the biggest gain in more than six years. Exports exceeded imports by $19.5 billion, from $1.68 billion in April and a deficit of $7.24 billion in March that was the first in six years.

Increasingly Confident

“The Chinese are increasingly confident they can make this adjustment to a domestic-driven economy rather than the one relying on exporting low-value-added stuff to the rest of the world,” O’Neill said.

It remains to be seen if China’s decision is a “symbolic move or a true shift in China’s currency policy that will result in significant currency appreciation,” Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and a former IMF economist, said in an e-mail.

Still, “this move signifies recognition by Chinese officials that a more flexible exchange rate is in China’s own interest,” Prasad said.

Changes in China’s exchange rate may not have an impact on the bilateral trade balance, John Frisbie, president of the U.S. China Business Council said in an e-mail.

“Much of what we import from China is stuff that we imported from elsewhere before,” Frisbie said. “If we didn’t import it from China, we’d likely just import it from somewhere else.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.netGopal Ratnam in Washington at gratnam1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: June 20, 2010 00:00 EDT

by **cookie** » June 21, 2010, 10:26 am

bumper wrote:During the protests huge amounts of foreign money went out. No reason to believe they won't came back as things stabilize. Thailand definetly has it quirks. But it has more cash then bills, that is not real easy to find in Countries today. The buy prices are inexpensive. The most expensive stock I hold at the moment is 26.75 ( baht) a share

The more I read this current book, the more I understand what Paul at Thaistocks does. His research goes far beyond what I could do. With my little 2000 share I don't think I can call the CFO of one of these companies and chat with him.

But, it is good to understand the process.

it seems that it's not only foreign money that went out and is coming back now.

it seems that the export also keeps on rising.... =D>

May exports rise 42% from 2009
Annual exports could grow by 18%

* Published: 19/06/2010 at 12:00 AM
* Newspaper section: Business

Thailand's exports are likely to grow by as much as 18% this year after overseas sales grew at the fastest pace in 22 months in May.

"We may revise the country's export growth target from the current 14% to US$173 billion this year," Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said yesterday. "But we need to see first how much June's figures are affected by the Greek debt crisis."

The minister is optimistic that June's export numbers are unlikely to change significantly from May's figures, making it possible for annual growth to hit 17-18%.

Thailand's exports rose for the seventh straight month in May, by 42.1% from a year earlier to $16.56 billion.

The surge came despite bloody anti-government protests on the streets of Bangkok last month.

by **bumper** » June 21, 2010, 10:42 am

Well a new week lots of exciting things happening. Even read where the Reds have decided to lay low for awhile, that's some more good news. Got a new Pick From Paul at Thai stocks, today. Picked up 1600 shares this is where it gets interesting I'm now reinvesting profits. I also bought more of the stocks that were moving up. I won't add my 15K till next month.

It's early on so lots can happen but thus far it appears that my 15K plan will work. But to keep everything honest here. I built a 100K base first.

I have three stocks that are laggards but they amount to less then 700 baht so I will let them work. I'm getting a lot of insight from the book I'm reading real basic stuff, which is exactly what I needed.

For me the best decision I made was joining Thai stocks, Paul just spent a week on the road interviewing companies. That is something I could never do and valuable insight.

by **bumper** » June 21, 2010, 3:49 pm

Just finished my first read of a basic stock book

The Book is The neatest Little Guide to Stock Market investing, by Jason Kelly, published by Asia Books.

For most of you guys it probably wouldn't mean much. It's very basic, for me a good way to learn the stock language, learning what the charts actually mean. It goes heavily into research, but it's directed at the states and not much use here.

I will tell you one thing for sure I will stay with Paul as long as he allows. I had an idea that Paul knew what he was doing or I would never have joined. I have a new found respect for what Paul does.

I'm 63 retired with a good retirement, I don't want to work and this is work.

I read this for two reasons I like to understand, it answered a lot simple questions that I won't have to ask now. Thus far this has been a very positive experience for me simply by following the model portfolio

If anyone has suggestions of recommended reading as to the Thai Market I would like to get a better footing on understanding, please let me know.

I also would like to take the time to say thank you to all who have shared your knowledge with me.

Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

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