Learning to invest in Thai Stocks

This is what I have been doing free to the public if you want the updates immediately you pay, free to the public three weeks later. If you do have an interest go the website and review it, that is what I did before I became a paid member. I simply don't know enough to have a go at this on my own. We have been through some rough times and I have maintained on the profit side all the way through the past several months

This is not designed for a day trader, it's designed for a mid term investor one to three years.I just got tired of getting 1/2% on my money. I did this after had all the needs covered for my wife and I both.

I would say a good place to learn if you have interest

This was posted with Paul Renaud's permission

Portfolio Update: Six month model portfolio update.
http://www.thaistocks.com/index.php
Unfortunately the chart did not copy.

The report is from Oct.- 09 to April 12- 2010

Set went up 1,9% during that time frame

The model portfolio went up 12.09%

Posted by PaulRen on Apr 13, 2010

Portfolio Update
Here is our 6 month model portoflio performance returns. This from October 12, 2009 to April 12, 2010. I will shortly post for members a new model.



6 month model update

April 12 '10, Integral Foot notes:


I added 0.40 Baht to the price of DEMCO which represents the value of free Warrants 2 issued in early November 1 for 7. I added 0.1250 to the price of PYLON which represents its dividend, I added 0.40 to the price of SGP which represents the interim dividend and its final dividend. I added HANA and STPI as then noted, inclusive of their dividends. UKEM's price shown includes the free warrants issued during this time.

At the time of posting this model I also stated I would include QLT and TRT. While TRT just stood still, QLT had a nice run. A few days later I posted I liked ROJNA and stopped- out of SGP, only to add it back at around 7.10. With SGP now at 8.25 it did OK as it also paid 0.50 in dividends, while ROJNA settled back down to just short of 9, or a non-event. I did not adjust the above shown returns with the stop-loss of SGP and then adding it back at a much lower price.

On November 18, I posted my upbeat view on HANA at the price of 18.70, this stock closed at 22.60 on April 12 and paid a 1.40 Baht dividend, so for a current value of 24. This represents a 29% increase, as I later visited this company and wrote a very upbeat view here. On Feb 13, I visited and wrote up STPI at 13.10 which I posted I want to add to this model, like HANA. STPI closed at 14 on April 12, on top of its 1.50 Baht per share dividend, or for a 18.3% gain.

Yet, I replaced STPI with STA where I took profits (way to early as it turned out) at around 22. I also added 0.10 to SPPT's market price which represents the dividend. As always I welcome any and all comments or if you see mistakes, please point this out.

Thank you all for your continued support,

Best Regards to all Members,


Paul A. Renaud.
http://www.thaistocks.com"

Integral footnotes:
The stocks noted with * have been increased by the shareholder benefit since, like dividends paid or warrants issued during this time. As here noted.

About ten years ago I followed Paul's website which advised on investing in Thai stocks. IMO he provided some good basic information on SET investment. I've been investing in the Thai stocks for about a dozen years.

Paul generally advised that there are good small and medium size companies that will show growth and good dividends. He avoids the blue chippers that are heavily traded.

IMO if you have the patience to wait for a significant stock drop and then invest, you should do ok. That is, if you have educated yourself sufficiently to pick a few good stocks.

To be honest being a novice I would not have tried it on my own. I have a long ways to go.

Even with carnage yesterday I still ended up 2.81%. Just took some winners doing OK and others closing the gap between loss and profit.

Business » Economics
SET tanks as foreign investors take cover

* Published: 25/05/2010 at 12:00 AM
* Newspaper section: Business

Thai stocks lost 2.77% yesterday as foreign investors continued to cut positions over concerns on political and social stability.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand index closed at 744.31 points, down 21.23, in trade worth 27.68 billion baht. The index closed slightly up from its low of 742.04 for the day.

Energy stocks lost 3.16%, banks 2.55% and the food sector lost 2.99%. Foreign investors were net sellers of 7.75 billion baht in stock, raising their total net sales to 46.4 billion for the month to date.

The exchange opened after being closed for trade on Thursday and Friday due to riots. The SET headquarters in Klong Toey remains closed due to fire damage suffered during the unrest.

Yesterday's declines came as most Asian markets gained, with Shanghai jumping 3.48%, Hong Kong rising 0.62% and Sydney up 2.09%. Global markets plunged late last week over continued concerns about Europea's debt crisis.

Pichai Lertsupongkit, a senior executive vice-president at Thanachart Securities, said global economic sentiment remained poor overall.

Asian markets yesterday rebounded on profit-taking following last week's losses when the SET was closed.

Although domestic political risk has eased, investors fear the risk of terrorist attacks, said Mr Pichai.

Investors gave little heed to better-than-expected economic data released yesterday showing first-quarter growth up 12% from the year before.

Mr Pichai said full-year growth forecasts were unchanged at 4%, with tourism likely to drop by a quarter this year due to the political unrest.

Patareeya Benjapolchai, the SET president, said the unrest showed the importance of backup systems, continuity plans and risk planning.

Mrs Patareeya said market events, including investor briefings by listed companies, would be moved this week to the SET's Maruey library branch at the Esplanade shopping complex on Ratchadaphisek Road.

She said the SET expected to repair its headquarters within one month. Losses include the entire first floor as well as the main Maruey library.

"All of the damage is covered by insurance policies with five firms," she said. The SET has put off indefinitely plans for investor roadshows in Europe, the US and Singapore, she added.

She said foreign brokers had mixed views on the Thai market, with some believing the worst might have passed.

But Mrs Patareeya noted that corporate fundamentals remain strong, with listed companies reporting first-quarter net profits of 157 billion baht, an 85% increase from the year before. Mrs Patareeya said of 524 listed companies reporting, representing 93% of all firms, revenues for the first quarter rose 29% year-on-year to 1.76 trillion baht. Leading all sectors in terms of profits were the resources, financials and property and building construction groups.

Leading all companies in terms of first-quarter profits were PTT, PTT Exploration and Production, Siam Cement, Siam Commercial Bank and Thai Airways.
About the author

Writer: Nuntawun Polkuamdee and Darana Chudasri

Just sharing my expierence:

Well I got a look at the minus today, I don't like it, it's ugly

Not as bad as it look though I unloaded a non performer. First I checked the dividends it has been paying. Couldn't see the advantage in keeping it. So I have that money added to my account for future purposes. So I'm really still in positive territory.

I'm learning that sometimes it's just a judgment call, if you don't see the value cut your losses and move on.

I'm still doing OK, no complaints.

I may have to make that judgment call again this week. But it's not just the Thai Stock Market getting hit. The EURO situation, just adds to the mess here from the protests. The South and North Korea really spooked the markets today, A lot of foreign investors are pulling out and headed to safe havens.

Another upside the Baht is depreciating against the dollar. If that holds I will have a better payday, in June

A good day today 6.90% up

Monday I will be making a judgment call, still staying in the portfolio. One stock made a break into the positive side, so still affordable. I will be buying 500 additional shares. My believe from watching things closely for some time now. When the US Markets move so do the Asian ones. It's like getting preview of the day before the market opens. The positive is already showing in the other Asian Markets. I don't feel like I'm guessing or gambling. I researched three different sites, they are all showing a positive for that stock. It hasn't declared it's dividends yet, so I should pick up that as well. It's a solid company with a good positive on the balance sheet and orders to be filled over the next two quarters. I would do it today but the markets are closed.

The only things that might change what I do is if the States comes in with a negative report

Ok how about some of you old hands chipping in here. That is my strategy for Monday, am I missing something?

BREAKINGNEWS »

Wall Street soars after Chinese vote of confidence for Europe


Washington - Money streamed back into US equities Thursday after the Chinese government vowed to continue investing in Europe despite the European Union's current debt crisis.

China's foreign exchange regulator denied that it was re-evaluating its euro-denominated holdings.

Meanwhile, some of Europe's most troubled large economies, including Italy and Spain, moved forward with austerity measures to bring runaway government debt under control.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 284.54 points, or 2.85 per cent, to 10,258.99. The broader Standard and Poor's 500 Index leapt 35.11 points, or 3.29 per cent, to 1,103.06. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index shot up 81.8 points, or 3.73 per cent, to 2,277.68.

The US currency dropped against the euro to 80.86 euro cents from 82.17 euro cents on Wednesday. The dollar surged against the Japanese currency to 91.06 yen from 89.98 yen.//DPA

First I will say that I have not found it rewarding to make SET changes daily.

However, look at the bank stock BAY. It has dipped to 18.10. Check the historical values which are around 20 for the last month. The last quarter's earning are look good - see news and historical trading. It seems to have been moving from 18 to 20 for months. A year ago you could have gotten it for 10 along with many other stocks that have doubled or more. But then who knew?

If I was in Thailand, I'd likely bid 18.10 for Bay before the start of the SET session. Pick a target, perhaps 19.5 to 20.00 to sell and wait.

I like CM (agriculture) which has dipped. But I would be inclined to keep it for its dividends. CM has been kind to me so I am biased. It has been a solid, not exciting, performer.

If you are in Bangkok and spend time, several days every week, in your securitie's stock room with the Thais there are some advantages. Your computer should have a display of the stock charts which show trends, etc. If you make some acquaintences with the trading Thais you may acquire useful tips. There is occasional inside information that is sometimes shared. You have to spend time to sort this out. You may learn of a particular stock that Thais play in volume believing that it will almost always go up a point during a day at which time they sell. Take your time (months) to assure that you are getting valuable tips. Wait for the very likely sure thing.

Thanks TJ

One more thought. Before you buy a stock, even if you don't expect to keep it for dividends, check the dividend status. The news section will have information of any dividend and the date that the stock holders are eligible for the dividend. The problem is that the stock will drop in value equal to the dividend the day after that specified date. Very small dividends, less than 10 baht, are likely not a problem.

IMO you don't want to buy a stock that will give a dividend within a week or two. It would be too late to be eligible to receive the dividend and the stock will drop in value the day after the dividend date.

The news letter announcing a dividend is usually months before the eligibility date. The dividends are likely sent out a month or two after the eligibility date. Many stocks provide two dividends a year.

Good Thought TJ everything I have pays dividends, my actual goal is one to three years. I've only sold one thus far and that was based on the percentage lost and the amount of dividend it would pay. Being new to all this I am being very cautious, I don't hold any stock that costs more then 26 Baht. At this point I'm up about 7K baht.

Maybe in the future I will be investing more but at the moment I simply have to much to learn.

BREAKINGNEWS »

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US markets fall on Spanish credit downgrade, capping ugly month

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Washington - Major US stock indices fell Friday, ending the Wall Street's worst month in more than a year, as a credit agency downgraded Spain's debt rating and reignited fears of a widening debt crisis in Europe.

Fitch Ratings downgraded Spain's credit rating to AA-plus from AAA, saying the country would take longer than most to recover from the global economic crisis.

The decision came despite Spain's Parliament approving a tough austerity package this week to bolster the country's financial credibility.

The decline was led by financial shares in the US stock market. Energy companies also fell after US President Barack Obama this week declared a halt to all deepwater exploratory oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico in response to the ongoing oil spill.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 122.36 points, or 1.19 per cent, to 10,136.63. The broader Standard and Poor's 500 Index fell 13.65 points, or 1.24 per cent, to 1,089.41. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was down 20.64 points, or 0.91 per cent, to 2,257.04.

The declines ended a topsy-turvy week for stocks. The Dow industrials were down 0.56 per cent for the week, but the S&P 500 was up 0.16 per cent and the Nasdaq climbed 1.26 per cent.

The monthly picture is far worse. Stocks fell by the most since February 2009 as investors feared a spillover from the eurozone's debt crisis.

The Dow plunged 8.23 per cent since the start of May, the S&P 500 tumbled 8.56 per cent, and the Nasdaq plummeted 8.69 per cent. US stock markets will be closed on Monday, the last day of May, in observance of Memorial Day.

The US currency rose Friday against the euro to 81.52 euro cents from 80.86 euro cents on Thursday. The dollar fell against the Japanese currency to 90.89 yen from 91.06 yen.//DPA

Being new some things I think I see may not be accurate. I watched the market here for several months before I was able to find thaistocks. It seems to me the market in the states does effect the Thai market for short periods.

Also starting small has created a situation where I need to accumalate based on my available money at the time. Hence many times I have missed the best buy time a few times. Hana is one of this times, so I just got into the profit area on it Thursday. I want add to that stock now.

Getting the timing right for a buy, can be touch and go for me.

Thursday was a great day for US Stocks, Friday wasn't. The reduction in Spain's credit rating seemed to bring out, the Euro Woes again.

Am I seeing things correctly?

In any event I will watch Hana very carefully Monday.

I noticed that in Pauls letter the Thai Stock market was down last month. My portfolio actually ended 6.90% up. That is very encouraging.

Ok a month in now what have I learned:

There are well managed established companies here. Until I got into this I had the same thought as most they didn't exist in Thailand. But, they do exist. We probably think that way because for the most part we never have contact with them.

I'm still trying to learn to do the proper research. Right now I get that through Thaistocks.com, Paul has been an investor here for around 20 years. His research includes company visits. Works in small and medium caps. You can tap into that knowledge as either a paid member or a pubic member up to you.

I know my limits and would limit my mistakes as much as possible. So I eased into this at 15K a month. Not investing anything that I couldn't lose and walk away from. If you follow guide lines and are diversified. you would really have to have your brain in park to lose everything. You can sell anytime.

This time frame has been a mess to say the least, but by listening and following through I still made a profit, That doesn't mean that I made money on each stock. It means that the portfolio made money I only had one that was losing more then I was willing to accept. I sold it and got a portion on my investment back took about 15 seconds.

None of the others have even met a 10% loss, so I wait for them to move to the positive.

Originally I was told that no broker would talk to me without at least 200K to invest, by several people. But if you do the work you can find something that fits your needs. Asiaplus at Bangkok Bank will let you get started with 15K baht.

I also opened a fund with Aberdeen for my wife at 5k a month.

I've slowly built the stock account up to 100K. I'm not making a fortune but I can't lose a fortune either. But. I'm learning and I know I have dues to pay. Not really many sources available for that. Very few will even discuss Thai Stocks on the forums.

I have now made five year plan for this and now I will work that plan. It is encouraging to see a profit as quickly as I did.

Tell you one thing for sure I made more money on this then I did the 1/2% on the savings in the bank. I have more then enough there to take care of emergencies.

There is risk in any business, including investing. But if you have a good plan you can set the level you willing to risk.

I wish I could offer more insight. But, this is the level a I'm at and a long way to go.

Well I did increase my holdings in Hana I bid it at 23.50 and got it. I'm not married to any stock I can and will sale, if I see a unacceptable loss coming up or to take some profits. When I see two advisers saying a stock is good more then likely it is. In this case Thaistocks.com and Kelive.

Truth is I have had no nor have I asked for advice from my broker at Asaiplus. Why she works on commission, the norm to her is gambling style approach, her only comment thus far is why wasn't I selling. The truth is I'm not trying to make money today. But, in three to five years. I have to tell you it sure feels good to see positive days.

Why ?

http://kelive.kimeng.co.th/kelive/userv ... ontId=8119