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KHONDAHM
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Post by KHONDAHM » March 1, 2012, 4:59 am

Several nations have walked away from the USD. Most have agreed to direct currency swaps instead because the USD's days of the default reserve currency are coming to an end. That means less demand for USD at a time when it is being created faster and in greater quantities than ever.

We are also seeing nations repatriating their physical gold and accumulating more of it.

This latest move by Iran is only remarkable in that they are finally doing it instead of talking about doing it as they have for years now, but the real motivation is that the USA flexed and had Iran removed from the SWIFT system. Ergo, no access to money transfers.


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randerson79
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Post by randerson79 » March 22, 2012, 5:26 pm

I just noticed that gold is below ฿24,000. What do you think? Time to buy? Further drops?

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jackspratt
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Post by jackspratt » March 22, 2012, 8:27 pm

79, unfortunately if KD answers, it will be under his new nick, so you won't be able to judge the credibility (or otherwise) of the response. :D

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randerson79
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Post by randerson79 » March 22, 2012, 8:48 pm

Don't worry Jack, He's not the one I wanted advise from anyway. 8-[

KHONDAHM wrote:The velocity of price movement is breathtaking. 20% in 3 weeks. Incredible.

I did post it would happen, but my goodness..! Seeing it is quite a show.

I am thinking it is a perfect storm to launch us past USD $2,000 well before the end of the year. Perhaps by September? Keep in mind, the dollar price changes are essentially meaningless this high up in the mountains. It's % change that matters to traders and quants. That means a LOT more volume and huge $ swings.

P.S. @Hangsaboot - That has got to be the funniest avatar I've seen in a while! LOL! :lol:

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Post by rct » March 23, 2012, 3:06 pm

http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/warre ... d-dba-xom/

I read this Warren Buffet quote in a much longer article in another publication and found it interesting:

“I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today’s market prices about $7 trillion dollars – that’s probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States.”

“For $7 trillion dollars…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven ExxonMobils (XOM, quote), and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I’ll take the farmland (DBA, quote) and the ExxonMobils.”

If this was already posted in this thread, forgive me.

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parrot
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Post by parrot » March 23, 2012, 3:50 pm

Good food for thought from Warren. Thanks, rct!

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Laan Yaa Mo
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Post by Laan Yaa Mo » May 11, 2012, 6:44 pm

Where is KhonDahm to explain the recent fall in the price of gold on the world markets? It is $1585 in Canada today. This is the key month, according to him, in which the world will explode in an economic kind of way. It still might but....
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parrot
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Post by parrot » May 11, 2012, 7:28 pm

LYM "This is the key month, according to him, in which the world will explode in an economic kind of way."

I read somewhere today that there's a new Mayan calendar....the end of the world isn't going to happen in Dec 2012.

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Laan Yaa Mo
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Post by Laan Yaa Mo » May 11, 2012, 7:32 pm

Yes, another 'conspiracy' theory has been debunked and sent packing! The world is safe and homefree for awhile. 555+
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KHONDAHM
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Post by KHONDAHM » June 5, 2012, 3:51 pm

I've posted before and freely admit my timing might be off, but it is never wrong or far from what I post. Did gold hit $2,000 in 2011? No. It traded above $1,900. Sue me. :) Did the financial world order fall off a cliff in April? No. It is happening now in June. There are some things are happening this month which very well result in something game-changing hapening over a weekend when the markets are closed. It may also happen after a forced bank holiday (ala Argentina when it collapsed).

The jig is up. Time to pay the piper.

What happened last week? Likely a massive liquidation of gold to cash ahead of the coming redemptions ala 2008. Gold is about to launch. I expect the same action as 2008 except that the USD will bounce due to equity selling but then crash as sellers exchange those dollars for Renminbi (Japan and China now trade directly in Yen and Renminbi - this a viable high volume pathway for dollar to Renmimbi) or Aussie dollars and the like.
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Post by Philrjones » June 5, 2012, 6:04 pm

Hi,

Yes it'll keep the safe haven status for a while now I think.

I suspect it's heading back up to 1770 or thereabouts by about mid-July. If it breaks through 1775 it should head back up to around 1880 to 1900 level again, perhaps by mid-august. Just some tech analysis - fundamentals will always screw with dates and levels.

Cheers
Phil

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Post by TJ » June 6, 2012, 12:10 am

In the US where it is easy to buy and safeguard gold and silver a plan to invest in both is advised.

Look to the GSR, gold:silver ratio. It's been in the 80's in the last few years (it takes 80 oz of silver to by 1 oz of gold) and as low as the 30's. Traditionally the ratio should be 20:1 to 15:1. The idea is when the ratio is high you buy silver with your gold, and when the ratio is low you buy gold with your silver. In the end if you do it right your stack grows larger though you lose some on the buying and the selling. Or you should be buying silver when it's cheap and buy gold when silver is expensive (compared to gold).

Now may be the time to buy silver rather than gold considering the ratio of prices.

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Post by Aardvark » June 8, 2012, 10:41 am


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Laan Yaa Mo
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Post by Laan Yaa Mo » June 8, 2012, 7:10 pm

The precious metal took a nosedive today. How can we sue Khondahm?!?
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jackspratt
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Post by jackspratt » June 8, 2012, 7:55 pm

It seems this thread is only active when gold is on the way up.

When gold is heading south, those "in the know" seem to lay dormant.

Philrjones
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Post by Philrjones » June 9, 2012, 6:28 am

Hi,

Re gold price - there were some comments that Bernanke said that weren't taken too favourable, hence the price drop. I actually don't trade gold, but currencies and options. However same technical principles apply. I don't mind if things go up or down - I look for either and am very happy to short as price moves about 2 to 3 times faster as compared to going long.

For gold, the upside looked initially promising as price had broken to the upside from 1600. However, there was a 4 hour minor resistance level at 1640 which price hit and promptly bounced back off. No one should have bought the break above 1600 and you should look for price to break above 1640 before considering longs. Don't play the break straight off though - wait for the pullback.

A nice pin bar has formed on Friday on the daily chart - tempting to play one of several pin bar setups with that one. However, there isn't a great deal of confluence and the pin bar isn't appearing at the right place, i.e. mid-stream instead of at major support or resistance. So I would ignore it.

For an overall view though, I've taken a closer look at gold, my bias would be down, but I wouldn't go short until price breaks below 1500. Downward bias is based on a couple of things. The current price dropping below daily SMA 50, 100 and 200 which are significant dynamic levels to look for. At the close on Friday (yesterday), there is a major support around 1500 and major resistance at 1715. These are dynamic though and will change, particularly the resistance, over the coming days/few weeks. If price breaks below 1500 then the next support is around 1450.

The second thing is that the overall daily trend is down and has been for about 10 months.

So for the longer time frame we have 2 areas complimenting each other - price action below major SMA's and overall trend for the past 10 months is down. That means I'd be looking to short this commodity if I were trading it. That doesn't mean blasting off and just selling, it means looking for the right setups to sell. If you haven't got some good set ups and patience, you'll lose no matter what.

I'd post some charts if I knew how to post them! Can someone let me know?

Cheers,
Phil

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parrot
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Post by parrot » June 9, 2012, 8:53 am

"I'd post some charts if I knew how to post them! Can someone let me know?"

This worked for me:

- Go to: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html (just as an example)

- Right click on the black chart

- SAVE AS (I usually save to my desktop to make it easy to find later)

- When you want to post a reply with an attachment, you have to click on POST REPLY. If you click on QUICK REPLY, you can't post an attachment. So.....click on POST REPLY.

- Add your comments. Then to add the chart, click on UPLOAD ATTACHMENT. Then click on CHOOSE. Find the jpg file that you saved. Click on ADD THE FILE.

- Finally SUBMIT.

Hope it works for you.
Attachments
gold.gif

Philrjones
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Post by Philrjones » June 9, 2012, 10:02 am

Thanks for that Parrot. I'll give it a go.

I'll attach the daily gold chart and a 4hrly gold chart and see how it comes out.
Attachments
Gold June 2012 4 hr chart.JPG
Gold 4 hr Chart
Gold 2012 June.JPG
Gold Daily Chart

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semperfiguy
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Post by semperfiguy » June 9, 2012, 10:09 am

Here's a much better chart to follow: http://goldprice.org

Single left click on the chart at the top left of the web page and a detailed chart will appear toward the bottom of the page. It will give you a variety of options to view and it's easy to follow.
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KHONDAHM
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Post by KHONDAHM » June 15, 2012, 9:12 am

Gold will break 2000 by the US elections in Nov. If Romney wins (because of the European contagion crashing all economies) the world is doomed and gold won't stop until it finds equilibrium with the Dow. All IMO.
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