Was Q/E by the FED important to Thailand?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 40401.html

Found this interesting. Looks like cooking the books can lead to tough sentences. That's today, who knows how things will flow when we get the new Government. You have aware of this kind of thing if you invest here. Due diligence means really digging here. Si this the same guy that went after Thaks so hard Sondhi Limthongkul ?


http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/4 ... and-prison

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Well Mr. Guppy believes there is a correction coming in China Stocks. I would imagine that will effect us here as well, eventually. The problem with Charting is facts on the ground can change things. But looking on the candle sticks he provided. Looks like that arena ha indeed been very hot. So it;s possible. Thailand still has the U.S. for a market.

Time will tell. Nothing can go up forever.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101873957

The world is very much connected these days. Marc Faber, who is not known for good news says a rebound is underway, Seems Guppy really missed the mark on China. Although I learned to do and read charting it's not an exact science, things change rapidly in the world today, Charting rely s on recent history, to project an outcome. But when you deal with Countries like China they have absolute control and can adjust for an outcome they want.

www.cnbc.com/id/100746255?region=world

bumper wrote:.... Although I learned to do and read charting it's not an exact science, things change rapidly in the world today, Charting rely s on recent history, to project an outcome. But when you deal with Countries like China they have absolute control and can adjust for an outcome they want.

Agreed, definitely not an exact science - but still, with care, can be very useful.

While I like some forms of charting for what it can show about history (in particular underlying trends) that were not wholly evident at the time; I do have serious reservations about the predictive powers that some of the more dedicated chartists give it - mainly because so few of their predictions come to pass

Charting on its own can be very dangerous especially when used with fads and wishful thinking (thinks of areas such as gold prices, Bitcoin, exchange rates, stock prices etc), but when used objectively in conjunction with other information sources it really can be a very useful tool.

While I have mentioned on a number of occasions the saying that "the trend is your friend" it is not the whole story unless "until it ends" is added to it.

Perhaps incomplete glib sayings should be mandated to carry health (or wealth) warnings

I agree Jimbo a good tool, especially if your a trader. I still check charts. But combine that with my other research. I've got one stock up 39%. KBS A sugar company to be used in Ethanol, That would be a great sale point for a trader. But it pays a 4+% in dividends. Branching out internationally. The hardest part of what I'm doing is sticking to the ten year plan.

Take the additional information out it would be time t sale that puppy. Guppy has missed on several now, He predicted originally that gold would be $1,000 now.

As to Asian markets things change rapidly often in unexpected directions. The Junta taking over, that happened so fast it was over before anyone even knew it. All the charts were showing a down trend for the SET and they were right. I thought 1200 was a good mark before the Junta's move I think I was right then so I held off for a period on buying. Things changed overnight. Right now I feel like I'm buying mid range. all indications at the moment seem to point to two years of good growth. Will there be a big correction after the election. I don't know. Currently the prediction is for the SET to hit 1600 in the Second half with all the money being pumped into the economy by Thailand that is possible.

The reality is no market stays up forever, so at some point I will lose money, with a ten year plan it has to happen. Question is how deep a correction and how long will it last. I don't know those answers just know it will happen.

The market here has been closed to last two days. When it closed on Friday things were not looking real good. But, the U.S. markets recovered some of the losses. The Asian Markets are looking pretty flat. I expect a gain tomorrow. But, hey I have been wrong before.

I enjoy seeing your charts. Guppy I'm beginning to have second thoughts about. Theory is he is a pure chartist. Me I look at them as several of the tools I use.

Well for once I was right the SET went up 24 points yesterday, now lets see if it can hold it.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... at-1544-55

Honesty being the best policy, here is where things ended up. My plan was working I was up 10%, in very short period of them. The idea was to give the wife additional income upon my death. But, while I was doing this the wife hitting the Loan Sharks why I have no idea. We have enough money. But, trying to keep this up and pay off the Loan Sharks was more then I could do. So I sold out.

The market is doing just fine, had nothing to do with that.

Could we be headed for another dot com crash?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-2 ... id=markets

Benefits of free trade agreements......aka AFTA 'n NAFTA.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/auto/autorev ... m-the-dark
On a side note......yes, the car is a Hyundai.....years ago, the Yugo from Korea......but today a respectable car in the US.

Are U.S. cars a part of that trade agreement. I know if you buy a bike that is built in Thailand it's far less then importing one from America?

I believe Thailand will have a pretty good two years coming, after that it's any ones guess. I have to clear some stuff up before I can start investing again. I lost a a very good position, paying off loan sharks. Hopefully I won't be put in that position again, But who knows.

Markets go up and down, just that simple. Plenty of evidence that what happens in the States does effect the SET.

I'm reading NPL's are up this year and house hold debt is 80% of GDP.

One thing I'm not clear on is Thailand running at a deficit?

When I sold out I made a 10% profit after costs. So I did OK. But, it could have been a lot better if could have held my positions. If there is going to be something like a dot com bubble I don't think it will be triggered from here. But it will effect Thailand just like everyone else.

I don't really want to buy back in at the highs, so for now I will build cash and wait for some dips. I know no her way to make 10% net on your money in a six month period. It is work finding the right companies, But it's worth it.

The companies I had were good, but they are pricy now.

bumper wrote:Could we be headed for another dot com crash?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-2 ... id=markets

When I look at the increase in the DJ (I can’t be bothered analysing S&P and NASDAQ) it is hard not to conclude that the US economy is in another bubble.

When you consider the bursting of the Dot-Com bubble and the 2008 meltdown, an 8.3% compound increase in the DJ since 1988 is not exactly representative of the growth in US GDP and it absolutely is not representative of wage growth.

However, when one considers that some of that could have been due to a marked reduction in the effective tax rate actually paid by large corporates (which increases after tax profits) along with the impact of other corporate welfare (aided and abetted by their legions of lobbyists, brown bagging of legislators and the Frankensteinish personification of corporates by SCOTUS) then the bubble, while still large, may not be quite so immense.

This chart is based on the annual averages (my calculation for the 2014 average is only up to 1st August – it should be noted that the close yesterday was over 17,000, some 500 points higher).

• 

  Having said what I did above, and having had another look at the chart, I've got to say that it still looks like bubble territory to me

I just don't see the meat on the bone. When there is nothing of substance backing up those numbers. just doesn't seem right. I'm thinking we will see some sort of correction fairly soon. Which will include Thailand. I may just get a shot at starting over at some reasonable prices. Time will tell.

As the U.S. goes so does Asia. Right now that's a little scary.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-2 ... 2-000.html

A different view of what is going on, pretty much in conflict of the other article

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... strong-yen

Very hard not to think that foreign money drives the SET, they sale the SET drops They buy it goes up. I have now sit up my own account hopefully won't have nay more loan shark problems. I paid off the entire mess with her money and I will start over again. Imagine if you held 10K share of BTS you would get a 6k dividend and they pay four times a year.

Maybank Kim Eng Kelive Research
DAILY RESEARCH

Selective Buy Yesterday, the SET contracted by -5.53 points to close at the 1,559.05 level with a light Bt44.24bn in trading volume. Foreigners returned to net selling Thai stocks again by ?Bt127mn and returned to net shorts in the Index Futures by 4,642 contracts and continued net buying bonds for a 4th day of +Bt800mn.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general ... -track-lin

Looks like they need to decide to take a loan from China or not, that should be a real short meeting, breaking ground 2016

Saw this link that does show that the likelihood of Thailand seeing rapid growth again is low unless something dramatic happens. Especially the fact that the fertility rate has fallen so much that soon for every 3 people who leave the workforce, only 2 will enter it. Therefore wages will rise, insufficient trained workers and a rapidly ageing population will depress growth.

http://www.thefinancialist.com/the-curi ... -thailand/

Big difference in those two pyramids: population 1980 and population 2015!

Education reform? Been talked about since we arrived in the late 90's......but seems the same problems remain.

I would like to think a Credit Suisse report carries some credibility. Thanks for posting the link!

Hot Flash......PM to lead 'super board' on education system reform. Injecting more studies of civic duties, history, democracy and patriotism.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/nationa ... 55041.html
Hot Flash, indeed!

I'm little confused on direction at the moment. You have Mega Projects with go aheads. at the same time, you see things that are not foreigner friendly. The most recent foreign lease holds. Won't harm me I came with three suitcases I can leave the same way. But, think about a foreign company, where is the collateral for investment.

Foreign teachers passing Thainess classes, whatever that is. If it brings Thailand back to Country I fell in love with I'm all for it. But, most foreign teachers are language teachers. I don't see how Thainess can help with dealing with a foreigner which I assume is why they learn a foreign language, Things are just confusing to me right now.

In the end I don't like it I can leave, so a often said up to them