Recession Dead Cat Bounce?

Or are we actually starting the long climb back up? States were the first in, like it or not it's the key along with other major powers to see a turn around. There have been some very heavy prices for all this and there is still a long ways to go. But maybe we have finally hit bottom and can start the climb.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/eco ... cond-month

A difffering oppinnion

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 61/1/.html

If the multi-trillion dollar budget passes the Congress, the dollar will lose more value, the cost of living in America will rise due to inflation and cap and trade regulations, and taxes will go up since there is no middle class tax cut (as promised) in the budget. There are also provisions in the budget to tax health care benefits as income, which will result in even more tax increases.

Given that scenario, which is very likely with a majority of Democrats in Congress, this market is experiencing a dead cat bounce.

The productive are not being rewarded in this and the future economy. They are waiting to be slaughtered. Until taxpayers have some incentive to invest and to spend money on something more than necessities, I do not expect a continued flourish in the US markets.

Well thats a fair evaluation. It's sad to see the comment as Democrat although it may be very true. But. I don't see we are going to get anywhere until we can all pull together. I don't see that either party did much for budgets in the past years, so it's a common problem not belonging to one party or the other.

But, then I'm not a political being so I won't address it any further then that.

What I'm waiting to see now is what is the rest of the world does. G-20 might give a glance at that. The possible scenario that I can see is a few nations put up the cash and the others ride on the coat tails. If there is unity in the approach then one nation may not be any more harmed than another.

Stranger thing have happened but I'm not holding breath.

That out of the way do you see us being close to the bottom?

Lets try to address the financial side please

just my opinion but I think the anti Obama people would just shut up and wait and see what happens
instead shooting there mouths off and give the President plan time to work. it might fail who knows
but they said that about WJC and he succeeded in getting the country out of debt and left the idiot
a surplus of money. it seem to me they are trying to tie 12 years of mismangement in congress with 6 of those years under the idiot to two years of democrat control of congress only. it was the R. who created the mess they should shut the F*** up and let the President plan go to work

git wrote:Well thats a fair evaluation. It's sad to see the comment as Democrat although it may be very true. But. I don't see we are going to get anywhere until we can all pull together.

We're talking about now, you asked a question, and I stated facts regarding Democrat proposals.

As for this "pull together" stuff, I'm not about to pull together for socialist programs that take money from productive people and reward unproductive people. I want America and working Americans to succeed. I want capitalism and free enterprise to succeed. I want the US Constitution to be followed.

I have heard several ideas and read several articles about a "bottom", and I'm inclined to believe (based on the comments by those individuals) that the bottom will be somewhere between the current level and DJIA 5,000, which is the worst case scenario.

WBU Hmm!!! Go read it agian nothing says anything about a party that's your hang up not mine. Better go check your closet I think there is a communist in there.

I already have said I have no interest in that and that is exactly what it meant.

Well I can see this not going anywhere but politics so I'm done you guys have fun. If cared about it I would run for office not sit and second all those who try, on a forum.

This disaster has been building for a long time. Clinton started the major problem with his every American should be able to own a home. I agree with that except that it should have been working Americans who qualified for a mortgage. Mortgage brokers were making BIG money arranging loans for bums and Bush allowed it to go on. Bush also allowed Wall Street, banks and insurance companies to make their own rules as they came up with gimmick after gimmick.

I'm not sure that the government can spend their way out of this mess. I'm just glad that I'm not a young man trying to raise a family. I'd likely be suicidal by now. What will be will be and since there is nothing I can do about it, I'll try to ignore it and not concern myself with things I have no control over.

Well I can see this not going anywhere but politics so I'm done you guys have fun.

Politics is entwined with the markets. Politics caused the current market mess. Politics is still involved in the current market mess. The actions of politicians affect the markets. The mere words of politicians affect the markets.

I was only stating my reasons for believing that this is a dead cat bounce. If you don't like my answers, that is certainly your prerogative, and if you choose to discount politics in the equation of world markets and the US market in particular, that is up to you, too. I certainly respect your view.

git it amazing how some people feel about social programs they were not around when the WW 2 vets came home and went to college on the G.I bill social program a few of them became U.S. Senators
& Congressmen in both parties and they are unaware or just plain ignorat about corporate welfare
as for the bail out I have no idea what is right or wrong and no one else does either in this forum
but some will claim know it all knowledge when smart minds in Washington are trying to figure it out
and are spinning there wheels. you and I are mainly concerned about our pension and the exchange rate
which at this time it not looking good for us all we can do is hope for the best. any way keep up the good work I depend on your articles & wisdom that you post in here and I look forward in reading them

Well I did see today that another budget will be offered by Wenesday, maybe we will end up with a combination of minds coming to better outcome lets hope.

There is absolutley no doubt in mind that doing nothing will create more then we saw in our worse times. Part of the highway system that we enjoy in the states came directly from the measure to ease the depression. My older brothers worked building roads in Oregon. Many of the Hydro Dams still in operation today, came from the same thing. How many times over have those projects paid back now?

So I can see some value to the proposed budget. However it is a time to be very careful so I am hoping for balance in the end. It's been amazing the dollar is actually going up today across the board I have no idea why?

Watched the BBC this afternnon a special on Eastern Europe, it pointed out two of those countries that have been hit very hard. The Ukraine is close to bankruptcy the bank won't let depositors remove their own funds. Both of those countries have application in for loans from the IMF anf the E.U.

I think it is bad assumption to look at anyone particular country, there are very few countries in the world that are not in trouble. I remember a thread on a different forum where in the conversation some how turned to shrimp farmers and how in the states shrimp was so much more expensive that you could buy shrimp from Thailand for a lot less. The reponse was so what cheaper shrimp is a better deal. Well we are seeing what happens when the American consumer can no longer buy that shrimp. It's not a pretty picture.

The one thing that I hope does come out of this mess, is getting Americans doing what they do best producing something. This time I hope they think twice about moving the technology out to put a few more pennies in the pocket.

The way out of this mess involves a lot of hard work, but first you have to create the jobs. I could care less who does it as long as it gets done.

When I said pulling together I meant the entire world, since it's a world wide problem. Does no good for America to produce if has no customers.

I read on the internet the GOP is attacking Obama plan some how that does not surprise me
but I would be more productive if they work together and found a solotion to the problem
but that will never happen for fear of the D. getting the credit. so it back to partiasn politics
depending on the big corporations to supply jobs is a mistake there only concern is large profits
and no taxes. that why we need a universal health plan to relieve the American business of paying for health plan that is over valued and no longer can afford it. we need to attack the medical profession
for there out rages charges and unneccessay checks just to paid the bill as well as insurance companies for out ragis insurace rates on Docters malpractice insurance when most states have taut reform
which I am opposed to

git wrote:The one thing that I hope does come out of this mess, is getting Americans doing what they do best producing something.

The way out of this mess involves a lot of hard work, but first you have to create the jobs. I could care less who does it as long as it gets done.

I agree that "producing something" is necessary and an important component of the recovery, but there doesn't seem to be much incentive for entrepreneurs and the free enterprise system so far.

With homes in foreclosure, it would make sense to give homebuyers an incentive to purchase a home that is in foreclosure. That incentive could be in the form of a tax break (only extra $500 was given) or in the form of a good fixed mortgage interest rate. Banks would be able to get their bad real estate off the books and have real money to lend, not money printed by the Federal Reserve, which hurts the real value of our currency.

It would make sense to give people more of their take home pay in order for them to pay down debt or to make new purchases. In the recent stimulus package, some workers (less than half) only get an extra $13 per week in their checks as a result of a reduction in the social security tax (that actually makes social security even more insolvent). Those on welfare got an extra $25 per week in their welfare checks.

I also agree that "you have to create jobs", but I'd like to see incentives given to the private sector to create the jobs, not more jobs created in and by the government.

I'd like to see business owners of all sizes given incentives in the form of tax rebates for restructuring their operations and hiring more workers. The rebate will give the businesses money in which to hire more people.

The current debate in Congress is over an annual budget, not ways to fix the economy. That budget contains more government entitlement programs in health care and education. It also proposes deficit spending over the next ten years. I would be less concerned if the budget proposal dealt more with fixing free enterprise issues, helping working Americans to succeed, cutting spending in areas that have proven to be inefficient and reorganizing government agencies that have wasted money in the past through either fraud or mismanagement.

Incentives in the free market will give incentive to the stock markets.

WBu I think we finally found something we can agree about. The altrenative budge will be out next Wenesday. I'm intersted in seeing what it recommends. What will happen in the negoaitions. I don't think this budget proposed will be automatically accepted. I think there will be give and take and the final product will not be what we see the first time through. I saw a lot of pointing of fingres with on altrenatives being offered. Now some one has done the hard work ancame uop with a different approach. In my eyes that is a sign of hope. I;'m sure politiics will be involved I'm not naive. But that is not my focus. I expcer that. What I want to see is the best possible approach of combined idea.

Believe me I don't like th double whammy anymore then you do, higher taxes and the loss of my spending power at the same time.

You brought up an interesting question that I really don't know the answer to did the WPA hire contractors to complete their projects?

I at times in my life belonged to the labors union and the operators union. I also at one time belonged to the steel workers and worked at Kaiser Steel in Fontana Califonia where one of my older brothers had worked for years. Once you past probation at the steel plant short of murder yuo would not get fired. I have seen 100's of thousand of dollars worth of product destoyed simply because a guy was angry at his sopervisor. That killed the industry.

Now lets talk about the consruction Unons, you produced or yuo were laid off simle a that. Yuo paid well had good benefits. But you earned it. I have no experince with auto workers union, but if thye are like that steel mill they destroyed themsleves and adjustments have to be made. Which seems to be happening.

My hopes in the stimilus pacakges they will put the projects out to bid, to those construction companies that have the expertise to complete good projects. If they do the little business owners out there will get the funding the need to keep his people working as will the supply chain that support them.

I count on there being pork there always is, that is how I look at the the buy back of the bad loans. Heck no they dont deserve it they did it to themsleves. The expert not being retained man I hope they quit, they did nothing in the first place of benefit to the economy and no I don't believe deserve to recieve bonus for destroying their companies. But that may just be the pork that has to be paid.

I could go on forever about this. Cause I think big mistakes hav been made. But I really donlt have the answerw only hopes and dream. The one thing I truly believe that will help is clear direction adn the best my minds form both sides coming up with that direction. Will that happen one can only dream.

git, that is well thought-out response, and we agree on several points. I appreciate a good exchange of ideas, and you've certainly provided some food for thought. We also agree that we want America to be successful.

You're correct about the budget taking awhile. I think it will be hashed and re-hashed and hashed again. There is so much in it that is "foreign" to most Americans that they are faxing and calling and emailing and everything else to keep from losing anymore. The process will be worth watching.

Thanks I see no rush at this juncture they need to think this trhough very carefully. Won't effect my life that much I'm through raising families. But, it will effect my children and grand children.

I hope for nothing but a brighter future for America the county that allowed to come from nothing be and where I am today. I hope that goes on for generations. I'm not rich by any stretch of the imgination, but I have everything I need and no longer have to work. That is a rich as I ever wanted to be. I wish the same for every other country I know it will never be that way.

In watching the news I'm amazed I'm not seeing that mnay calling it dead cat bounce. I may have posed it as a question but in reality that sisexactly what I thought it was.