Trying to cut through the mass of spin and rhetoric, in my opinion the Greece crisis is about the following main points:
1. Internally:
a. A succession of corrupt governments.
b. A high proportion of (primarily wealthy) citizens evading / avoiding paying taxes.
c. Falsification of economic data on EEC application.
2. Externally:
a. EEC failing to undertake a thorough due diligence on the economic data on the Greek application.
b. Banks and financial institutions making loans without undertaking a thorough due diligence.
c. Banks and financial institutions making Credit Default Swaps (insurance) on the loans in “3” above without undertaking a thorough due diligence.
Note: A number of the citizens in “1.a” and “1.b” above are closely connected, e.g. “1.b” cannot happen without the active collaboration and collusion with “1.a”.
Added to the above is the relatively recent ratcheting up of investments (bets) by financial institutions on the outcome of the crisis – one of the increasing concerns in the markets revolves around these investments (bets) going wrong, e.g. what may or may not actually trigger a “credit event” and what actually is the precise definition of a “credit event”. An interesting parallel could be drawn here with what has just brought MF Global to its knees.
It does appear that we never learn as, once again, banks and financial institutions have made their investments (bets) relying on “too big to fail” which usually results in privatised profits and socialised losses.
There is always lots of talk about corrupt governments, but in reality it’s extremely hard to have a corrupt government sector without a corrupt private sector – it takes two to Tango!
At the end of the day, the money is gone and now it is all about who is going to bear the costs – and that is where it has been getting really interesting (and scary), no one appears to know what the paper chase will reveal when the complex series of investments (bets) are unwound all the way back to their sources and when that is revealed just who will end up bearing the losses, will they end up being privatised or socialised
