sinking euro worries

The euro came under the 1.20 dollar today from a high of 1.60

How many of you are seriously suffering from it, maybe to the point of thinking to go home ?

I see more and more niceties go to heaven, the ease with which I used to buy a tv or a fridge for that matter, spending money going out is gone, I now have to explain why we have to be more careful with money.

I am not thinking of going back yet because living in Europe is more expensive, but since I still have property there it means taht I have to maintain two sites.

Of course this is not a problem exclusive to the euro .Nearly all western currencies have suffered .As for going back home. I think many on here are , like myself ,are on a fixed income , pension. So it is still much cheaper to brave it out here . However for the younger members , those still of working age , there may be a case for going back and earning relatively good money for at least a part of each year, to enable you to maintain the standards when you come back again . Going back permanently? you must be joking
What may become a major concern for many though is having enough income to qualify for the annual visa extension. 400 or 800k whichever one you get .If the fall in exchange rates in any way reflects the fall of the last two years again next year . Many , including myself , will be struggling .

trubrit wrote:What may become a major concern for many though is having enough income to qualify for the annual visa extension. 400 or 800k whichever one you get .If the fall in exchange rates in any way reflects the fall of the last two years again next year . Many , including myself , will be struggling .

What had you been doing all your working life if you can't maintain 800k savings in the bank by the time you've retired? You must of had a crap job.

OT.......

old-timer wrote:

trubrit wrote:What may become a major concern for many though is having enough income to qualify for the annual visa extension. 400 or 800k whichever one you get .If the fall in exchange rates in any way reflects the fall of the last two years again next year . Many , including myself , will be struggling .

What had you been doing all your working life if you can't maintain 800k savings in the bank by the time you've retired? You must of had a crap job.

OT.......

For a long time plan I have made a calculation including house, land, transportation etc. plus living cost around 35 000 thb per month. Using current exchange rate I would habe 750 000 - 1 800 000 thb saved to my bank account yearly. With 48 thb/euro I could have between 2 000 000 and 5 200 000. Already retirement saving would make over 2 000 000 thb difference. It makes a big empty space in my wallet if there is less than 8 million baht instead of over 10 million when I retire. If currency rate drops like it has been dropping, it means almost 2 million thb decrease and it means that I have to change part of my plans. By myself I would say that over 4 million baht drop in savings can effect even someone who has had a proper job. With 36 thb to one euro rate I can not base my living on dividents.

What had you been doing all your working life if you can't maintain 800k savings in the bank by the time you've retired? You must of had a crap job.

OT.......

You have to remember O/T, there are a hell of a lot of IDIOTS in this world .......... ANYONE WHO HAS EVER EMPLOYED YOU FOR A START !!

Get a grip. For over two years the financial wizards have predicted a correction in the value of the Euro, it was overvalued. It will probably fall to 1.15 to the dollar by the end of summer if not more. If the EU continues to experience further member countries going broke, it will continue to fall. Notice the Thai baht has not slipped like predicted. It has remained strong against all currencies. Don't expect a slide her. I would advise you to read some of the reports that have been coming out and educate yourself on the currency markets. You cannot make retirement plans based just upon a favorable exchange rate. Or do what some of us are doing, maintaining a home here in Thailand and work overseas. Better to spend a couple of extra years salting away a few extra units of currency so you don't worry about fluctuations as much. Good luck. Oh, by the way, a lot of very smart people got it wrong and have lost a hell of a lot of money. So good luck.

I think it will not fall more than to 1,18 and than it will go the other way again but slowly

and before 24 month it will be 1,80
maybee the pound go down to 40 baht
and us 22-25

but maybee the euro is a finish game, and if this happend will it be before end off this year.

but this will not be good for all farang from south europe, if they get the lire again, it would be to half price and then it will be to expensive to stay in thailand for them

UK and US has to much debt, and US the problem because no one will deal with china because they own most off US, but they realy need to tell china if they not put there money up with 30-40% they has to put importtax on
and this will bring a lot off people back to work.

and they has to put tax on all tranaction they make on the exchange stock, option, calls swap and so on.

IMHO, taxing trades is waaaaaaay overdue provided there are allowances (such as a credit for trade taxes paid) to prevent double taxation.

As for the Euro, it's doomed. When the US gets a cold, the whole world sneezes. The US has terminal pneumonia. There are sure signs that the US is entering a second Great Depression. Current US economic measures (borrow and spend) are just dragging it out, but it will eventually get worse. Much worse, and much worse than if the much needed cleansing was allowed to take place in 2008/2009.

It's like you or me losing our job (the US manufacturing base was disassembled), we try our hand at gambling, hustling, and cons (the financial markets). That works ok for a few decades, but we survived by Republican administrations ignorantly and gleefully borrowing and using our credit card (foreign indebtedness and trade deficits). Since our credit is considered "good", our lenders let us spend beyond our means to repay (like having dozens of credit cards with high limits and a single high income). As long as you or I can continue to "borrow and spend" off our credit cards, we can survive (create new federal jobs and programs) until the day that the creditors start to cancel our credit cards and reduce our available credit lines. That's when it is time to pay the piper; and that is what has been happening over the past few years as China and other countries reduce their holdings and purchases of US debt.

When the US government stops spending, the economy will collapse. This is what Obama knows. He is trying to ease the US into the imminent depression in an orderly way rather than let the market forces shove and shock the US into one.

Understand this CLEARLY: in 2012, the IMF forecasts that US debt will exceed US GDP. That is the equivalent of you or I having credit card debt of $110k on a salary of just $100k. The forecast does not include US debt obligations (to you and I, that would mean we would not include our mortgage, future college tuition for the kids, what we know we would need for retirement, etc.). (This is not "new" news at all for those who have been paying attention all along and planning for it these past several years/decades.)

So WHEN this happens (your debt exceeds your income), what happens to your credit? It gets downgraded, then it gets cut. It should have happened when debt exceeded a sound ratio, but it will definitely happen when it exceeds your annual income (see Greece and other European countries). No more credit cards = no more lavish spending. No more spending = corporate bankruptcies, increased unemployment, decreased imports, etc. The dominoes fall and the Euro will be right there at the beginning of the tumble.

Here's a chart and the article:

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010- ... f-day.html

Welcome in advance to the Great Depression II: The Global Currency Crisis

It is IMMINENT. There is no (peaceful) way to fix or avoid it, but one can ride it out...

I repeat: The Euro is doomed.

trubrit wrote:
What may become a major concern for many though is having enough income to qualify for the annual visa extension. 400 or 800k whichever one you get .If the fall in exchange rates in any way reflects the fall of the last two years again next year . Many , including myself , will be struggling .

Yes, that's my concern. Having completed a house (delighted with it) and left myself little capital, I'm dependent on my pensions. If it gets really difficult, I can cut my living costs, although I hardly spend much socially. But I can't do much about exchange rates and e.g. the prospect of the extra hassle of applying for a marriage visa, as opposed to retirement, looms.

@ Khondahm : can you elaborate a bit on your remark that the manufacturing base has been dismantled ? And don't you think the USA will not be able to reinstate this base when the dollar falls, if ever ?

old-timer wrote:

trubrit wrote:What may become a major concern for many though is having enough income to qualify for the annual visa extension. 400 or 800k whichever one you get .If the fall in exchange rates in any way reflects the fall of the last two years again next year . Many , including myself , will be struggling .

What had you been doing all your working life if you can't maintain 800k savings in the bank by the time you've retired? You must of had a crap job.

OT.......

OT. Comprehension obviously isn't your strong point . Let me explain. I specifically said " enough income" to qualify. I didn't mention savings . However on that point . I do not keep a large sum in any Thai bank account owing to the low interest they give , especially to foreigners, as well as the proliferation of well fit birds that might want to get their hands on it .

Peterplay wrote:@ Khondahm : can you elaborate a bit on your remark that the manufacturing base has been dismantled ? And don't you think the USA will not be able to reinstate this base when the dollar falls, if ever ?

Sure thing. If you can, download and watch "Capitalism: A Love Story". It elaborates better than the points I list here:

- The US Manufacturing base was roaring during and after WWII. Especially AFTER because the production plants of Europe and Japan had been bombed to the point where they could not be as competitive.
- During and since the '70's Republicans waged war on labor unions and encouraged plant consolidations. It is arguable that this struggle also encouraged companies to relocae manufacturing abroad. Plants closed by the score.
- At the same time, Europe and Japan were able to rebuild their manufacturing capacity and eventually made better products saleable on better terms in the global market.
- As more market share became lost to imports domestically, more plants closed and/or relocated abroad.
- Today, the American rust belt and those skilled workers are pretty much extinct and the US has moved on to being even more of a consumer country whose economy is almost wholly dependent on services (financial, health care, technology, etc.). We export more ideas and financial instruments of mass destruction than widgets.

When the dollar turns around? It won't, and everyone knows it. It's demise is just being postponed to allow for a softer landing at the bottom of the rabbit hole.

I see the Euro continuing to sink, or at least remain "in the doldrums"!

@ Khondahm Do you think the end of the rabbit hole will be shared by the euro ? The Yen and the Rinminbi staying at the surface ?

I always perceived the USA as a pretty resilient country and I wouldn't be surprised if they are able to make the great turn around.

KD,I certainly agree with your longterm forecast for the Dollar and longterm,the Euro is also dead as the EU will never will never acheive their goals,to many diverse peoples and economies !

The haves never want to carry the have nots,unless they see it as short term help for the have nots to change their ways and strive to handle the proportion of the load or because short term they will suffer from the reprecussions of not helping at the moment,such as bank failures due to Sovergn debt losses!

It is almost as ridiculous as trying to form a one World gov't!