This past year I withdrew my monthly Social Security payment by ATM from my US bank and my average monthly exchange rate was 30.09 baht per 1US$. Now I'm considering a wire-transfer of say $20,000 in the next day or so to cover my upcoming expenses for all of 2014 and I can possibly lock in the exchange rate of 32.65 baht per 1US$. That would be a gain of 50,200 baht over my average exchange rate in 2013 for the same amount of money. If you were me would you proceed with that transaction now or continue to do monthly withdrawals and gamble that the average monthly exchange rate will be higher this coming year?

semperfiguy wrote:This past year I withdrew my monthly Social Security payment by ATM from my US bank and my average monthly exchange rate was 30.09 baht per 1US$. Now I'm considering a wire-transfer of say $20,000 in the next day or so to cover my upcoming expenses for all of 2014 and I can possibly lock in the exchange rate of 32.65 baht per 1US$. That would be a gain of 50,200 baht over my average exchange rate in 2013 for the same amount of money. If you were me would you proceed with that transaction now or continue to do monthly withdrawals and gamble that the average monthly exchange rate will be higher than 32.65 this coming year?

edit to my original post

Go for it!!

I get paid in USD, as soon as my monthly salary is in the Bank i wire it to Baht, i keep very little USD in my bangkok bank USD account, ill tell you why one i dont need USD and two ive sat on it waiting for the rate to go more in my favour and it does not, i always seem to be on the loosing side of the gamble, so as soon as its in i wire it to THB so that way i dont keep looking at the rate, right now its a good rate, you know what your getting go for it, its a gamble but if you wait and it goes back to 30 you will for the whole of 2014 be thinking of that 50,000 baht!!!

We have the potential for some political turmoil here in the future. I, for one, am keeping my AUD at home at about 3.0%.

You are in a much better position as your Treasury Dept. is progressively decreasing the so called "Stimulus Package" thus increasing the value of the USD. Each announcement of further decrease increases the value of the USD.

IMHO - KEEP IT A HOME!. Just transfer enough for day to day needs.

My 2 Bahts worth.

A time-capsule comment: Back in the summer of '97, after years of 25-to-$1, the baht began to sink. When it hit 28 to 1, it was like manna from heaven. I plunked down 8000 for a long-wanted weedwhacker and felt like I was getting a real deal. A week or two later, the baht broke 30, then 40, then 50. No one knew how high it was going or how long it would stay high.
I'm with BdD, given the improvement in the US economy and the Fed beginning to taper, along with the political unrest.......my fortune teller told me (promising not to tell anyone else) that the odds are better for the baht to drop more. But then, last year that same fortune teller whispered the closing gold price for 2013 to be around $3500/oz. With just a week to go in the year, I'm keeping my fingers crossed he's right!

Bottom line (IMO), it's a crap shoot.

There is a chance the THB will weaken more with the unrest but who knows? Its a gamble it could quite easy go back to 30 in a few weeks. Ive seen it before just a few weeks ago it got stronger its just the past week it weakened, tomorrow ill be transfering over and right now online its 32.61 but i got to wait till bank openng hours to do it online

Dont get me wrong guys back to the 40s would be somthing special

Sakhonnick,
How long does it take for the transfer to show up in Thai account after you initiate transfer from your U.S. bank? Just asking as when I transfer it is to a relatives account so do not know how long it takes and will shortly be sending direct to wife for some construction.
Semperfiguy,
Just remember the restrictions on the one time amount that can be transferred, I believe it is $10k now.

never look a gift horse in the mouth Semi..
your already 50,000baht ahead, so the question I ask is how much further do you think you can make if you hold off ??
any idea what happened to the baht last coup, and the coup before that??? 2009 and 2010...
the trouble currently going down around the country,is now on the global tv, so will affect tourist numbers, and trade, somewhat, so things might go downhill..

Us in Aotearoa are now beginning to see signs that we are coming out of the 2009 money crisis, but I hear this week Aussie is now in big trouble, and yes the US is ever so slowing clawing itself up the fiscal cliff..
so on one hand the baht could go down, and on the other the US could go up..
its always a gamble..generally if things are to good to be true , they usually are..

Stantheman wrote:Sakhonnick,
How long does it take for the transfer to show up in Thai account after you initiate transfer from your U.S. bank? Just asking as when I transfer it is to a relatives account so do not know how long it takes and will shortly be sending direct to wife for some construction.
Semperfiguy,
Just remember the restrictions on the one time amount that can be transferred, I believe it is $10k now.

I just had considerably more than $10K transferred from U.S. to here for a large purchase. If there are restrictions, somehow they either didn't apply in my case or I slipped through the cracks.

i just did it 32.66

i just wired from my Bangkok Bank USD account to my Bangkok Bank THB account online with Bualuang internet banking

stantheman: i dont have a US account in the States i have a USD account here in Thailand so i wire online duing thai banking hours from USD to THB

its all a gamble but i wont bother looking again untill 25th next month when i get paid in USD again, it could go up it could go down!!! but i got a great rate today so im happy

If a years' worth of transfer will gain you 50K then the prudent approach would be to bring over half a year immediately & gain 25K.
In 6 months time you will gain what you gain, or lose what you lose then.
Either way you will be 25K to the good now.

In my experience it is better to be prudent than greedy...but then I will never be a multimillionaire.
On the plus side neither will I ever be a pauper...

Much depends on your own philosophies on life; how do you really view the risks/rewards of the losses/gains that might be achieved by waiting compared with the relative certainty of where we are now?

What will make you sleep better, knowing that you have the certainty of a rate that a few months ago seemed nigh on impossible or the prospects of jam tomorrow............. that might never arrive

To what degree would you mentally beat yourself up if you miss out on the current rate and it then falls - all because you gambled on the possibility of a higher rate

Is there really any solid, credible evidence that indicates that the rate might improve further?

When the actual history of disasters, coups and troubles this century is compared with the exchange rate it does not really lend much credence to any theory (other than wishful thinking) that the current troubles would cause the Baht to fall.

Despite what is reported in the media, it is my view that recent movements have had far more to do with exchange rate mathematics (caused by interest rate movements, discounting the impact of QE tapering, etc) rather than any significant impact from the troubles.

In my opinion, despite recent moves the Baht is still overvalued BUT my opinion matters for naught when compared to market sentiment towards Thailand, which is still overwhelmingly positive

Perhaps this might be the ultimate analysis of what is driving the USD/THB rate:

... there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know.

To give a visual perspective on the numbers for this year I’ve modified another chart of mine to show just how much 20.000 USD exchanged into Baht varied during 2013.

• 

It is noteworthy that, despite the fact that we are at a point now that only a few short months ago few would have dared to dream of, the very speed that we have arrived at that point has already created (in some people) signs of irrational exuberance – will we ever learn

1) no end in sight to the political unrest. The Dems know they can't win so they boycott new election. PM will not step down. ???????? Anyone's guess as to what happens; but it won't be pretty or short.

2) IMF & World Bank both calling the rice-pledge a really stupid scheme. Farmer's payments on the pledged rice are 2 months behind; they have been promised payment by the end of December. Currently, pledged price is 40% greater than market price; that dog won't hunt. If farmers not paid then......???

3) USA on the rebound. Stock market new highs; unemployment creeping down, consumer confidence creeping up, housing prices showing solid gains.


THE THAI BAHT WILL CONTINUE TO GET WEAKER AGAINST THE USD OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

Disclaimer: uh.......none unlike another well-known prognosticator......lol

Back it April when it 28.5 i still changed when ever my money went in why? because it quite easily could of went to 27 or even 26 it was even getting said in the news it might get back to 25, who knows? nobody knows? if you did you would be multi millionares

like i said my reason for changing as soon as USD hits my account is: i dont need USD i need THB, i cant save in USD as the interest rates are nonsense but i can save a little in THB as atleast they are above 3%

Ive tried in the past to hang it out a few months and fo some reason i seem to be on the loosing side so i decided to hell with it take what it is at the time sometimes i win sometimes i loose

kown known - Donald Rumsfeld is an idiot.

Another Rummy gem: Death has a tendency to encourage a depressing view of war.

Read the article below (red text). They can't even move the bonds; the whole scheme starting to implode. It had to happen sooner or later.

Farmers have now been promised payment by January 15. Doubtful.

TT rate as of this posting: 32.8. I look for 34 in the near future as the 'Chinese Whispers' have the military taking control.


The populist rice pledging scheme in Thailand, which was originally meant to keep millions of rice farmers loyal to the government by buying rice from them high above market rates, has started to heavily backfire money has dried up.

The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), in charge for the payouts, has run out of cash in November and since managed only partly to refinance itself. It turned to the bond market to raise funds to pay farmers, but managed to get only 37 billion baht ($1.16 billion) on a 75 billion baht($2.34 billion) offering.

Furthermore, the Thai Finance Ministry on December 12 declined to come up with a credit guarantee for the BAAC after the parliament has been dissolved due to ongoing political protests and the current caretaker government is not in the role to issue such a guarantee.

Angry farmers, who have just received vouchers since November, are now threatening to block roads in 26 provinces, adding to the problems of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who called snap elections for February 2, 2014.

The government has spent up to 680 billion baht ($21.25 billion) in four harvest seasons over the last two years, but has sold only 135 billion baht ($4.22 billion) worth of rice and sits on estimated stockpiles of 16 tonnes.

The BAAC will now try to place another rice bond in January will paying the farmers "gradually" from the funds available. They, however, pressed the government to sell more rice on the market to bring in liquidity and said they were "running out of patience."

Stockpiles of 16 Tons must be a misprint