Udon Red Shirts

Rick

Thanks for your rebuttal. However, I must disagree with you on a number of points.

1. Yugoslavia was indeed a sovereign country made up of a federation of states just as Thailand is a sovereign country. Thailand (originally Siam) dates back many years but was formed from a number of ancient kingdoms. Yugoslavia dates back to the 17th century although was really never formally established until 1918.

2. Demographically you are correct regarding the makeup of Thai society. However, they do not have a similar culture nor language nor customs. The one similarity is religion (Buddism) but even here the south has a very large Muslim Islamic population. The north speaks a dialect of their own as does the northeast as does the south. The three regions are also very different culturally. The north with its hill tribes maintains cultural ties to the former Lana Kingdon. The northeast likewise stays firmly linked to their ancient roots maintaining their own language (Isaan) and customs. The same can be said about the south which remains firmly linked to its Malay roots.

Yugoslavia's states although larger in number were just as diverse culturally, & religiously.

3. Thailand has been blessed with the leadership of the current King who has managed to keep the country together through many upheavals (coups & constitutions). Yugoslavia had Tito who also through his own charisma kept the country unified. Yugoslavia did not begin to fall apart until Tito died. That process took nearly ten years to occur. I believe Thailand will follow the same path upon the demise of the King because I don't see any unifying figure emerging in the future. Certainly the central governemnt will not fill the void. Additionally, the central government is weak and will remain so in the future with numerous factions all looking for their "piece of the action". Corruption is rife throughout the country (inside and outside government). Worse still is the general Thai attitude of corruption is ok as long as I get something out of it (recent ABAC poll). The lack of any sizeable middle class will also have its detrimental effects on society as a whole. The current political upheaval is just the tip of the iceberg so to speak with unfortunately more to come in the future.

Compounding all of this is the education system which in its present form is incapable of actually preparing anybody for the future. Certainly there are some good universities in the country but for the most part the current concept of education falls far short of what the future demands. The country is churning out thousands of ill educated students who are unable to find gainful empoloyment at a decent wage; that is unless you consider 3-5,000B per month a decent wage.

In reponse to your question of who is the UK similar to I say you are trying to compare apples with oranges. You cannot compare the UK with either Thailand or Yugoslavia anymore than you can compare these countries to the US or Canada or any other western nation. There are just too many disimilarities.

The above are my own opinions based on what I've seen and read over the course of my 40 year involvement with this country. I don't claim to be an expert nor a historian but just an observer. Once again I really hope I'm wrong.

I concur with your well presented post,FDimike!

There's one other thing I failed to mention. Thai society in general has a complete lack of respect and a complete disregard for the law be fair or not. This may be due to lack of understanding or it may be due to a lack of upbringing/training/education by the family/schools or maybe a combination of both. Compounding the problem is this tactic of selective enforcement as it only makes people even more distrustful of authority. Compounding the problem further is the lack of allegiance of enforcement authorities to the sitting government. The recent events as well as what happened last year in Bangkok and around the country are an excellent case in point.

fdimike wrote: The recent events as well as what happened last year in Bangkok and around the country are an excellent case in point.

What happened last year in Bangkok? Did I miss something.

Actually that and the yellow shirt blocking of the airports.

How time flies when your having fun. You're right it was in 2008.

I agree there are divisions in Thai society, maybe in the future there will be a revolution, but in the protests over the last few years there has been a general reluctance to resort to great violence (at least before April), and no where have i heard of ethnic cleansing, no genocide, no massacres outside of protests.

Only thing akin to revolution currently is in the southern most provinces; what happens there is unlikely to spread much beyond it; the muslims are but a small percentage and mainly concentrated there.

There is a struggle for power beginning, but power struggles are common to nearly all countries; it is just a matter of degree.

Yugoslavia never existed before 1918. between the 15th and 19th centuries, the area was divided between the Austro-hungarian empire and the Ottoman empire, which bits depending on who won the last war. The Serbian kingdom sometimes existed, but never controlled the entire area. Yugoslavia came about as a desire of the local peoples to fend off the predatory wishes of neighbouring countries like Italy and Greece, and the wish of the allies to prevent the Austro-hungarian empire from rising again. it was always a marriage of convenience. All that existed was a loose linguistic and ethnic origin (over 1,000 years ago); That makes them as about related as the French and the Germans.

There is no ''real'' revolution in Thaialnd because the majority poor don't really feel they are suffering to the point that their backs are to the wall!Sure,some are angry about different points of recognized exclusion by the ''rulers'',but ''survival living'' is very easy in Thailand,so the undereducated relatively ignorant poor only re4volt temporarily for pay or a particular issue,not for equality and economic opportunity!

nkstan wrote:There is no ''real'' revolution in Thailand because the majority poor don't really feel they are suffering to the point that their backs are to the wall!Sure,some are angry about different points of recognized exclusion by the ''rulers'',but ''survival living'' is very easy in Thailand,so the undereducated relatively ignorant poor only re4volt temporarily for pay or a particular issue,not for equality and economic opportunity!

Nkstan, somewhat SAD but a lot truth in what you said, it even bring tears to my eyes when I read of a somewhat well off young Thai(9years old) in route to/from school is kill by a stray bullet fired by a Tech School Student at a rival from another Tech School all should have been just out to get a better education, then we hear such an OUTCRY went a Catholic Teacher Cain a Student, and we wonder why red shirts and yellow shirts don't see eye to eye, "Charity start at Home" sorry for the RANT enough SAID

Rick

It seems to me there was a fair amount of violence when the yellow shirts made their move in BKK two years ago. Several people were killed and scores injured. The viiolence spread here to Udon as well when the yellow shirts were violently attacked in Nong Prajak Park during one of their rallies. I believe one or two people were killed and many seriously injured during that confrontation. Violence is not new to the political scene here in Thailand either. The student uprising in 1973 resulted in many students losing their lives. That was my initial introduction into Thai politics as I was stationed here in Thailand at the time. The violence escalated again last year during Black Songkran in BKK and the ASEAN summit in Pattaya. It escalated still further this year. It sure seems like a trend developing to me.

As for ethnic cleansing, massacres & genocide I would look no further than the south and the extra -judicial killings from the 2003 drug erradication program when thousands of people were "eliminated". Check out how many people have lost their lives (on both sides) since the violence began and you will see just how serious the problem is today.

What happens in the southern provinces will certainly not remain in the southern provinces. The violence is continuing and appears to be increasing. Many peoiple have lost their lives on both sides over the conflict with no end in sight. What happens in the south is affecting the entire country and is being viewed by the international community as well. The solution (if there is one) will surely upset one group or another and that will continue to spread dissent throughout the country. Just look at the row over Preah Vihear the temple on the Cambodian border. Here is something that was supposedly settled about 30 years ago. It has divided the governemnt and society alike over just what to do about it.

Yes there is a political power struggle beginning but that is not the really important power struggle which has yet to begin.

The length of time Yugoslavia existed as a country is not as important as how it managed to stay unified during the time it was a sovereign nation. Both Yugoslavia and Thailand have remained united due to the leadership of His Majesty The King here in Thailand and Mr. Tito in Yugoslavia. The point I was trying to make in an earlier post was that when Tito passed away Ygoslavia disintegrated over the course of some 10 years because there was no one person with the charisma and leadership ability similar to Tito to step into place. I mainatin that the same thing can be seen here in Thailand if you critically look at the situation. Couple this with political suppression, censorship etc and you have the makings of a potentially very serious problem.

JMHO

Mike,

What you say is all pretty much true, but with the exception of the southern provinces all violence is all about economics, not ethnicity. I have discussed politics with some Isaan people and although dissatisfied with their economic lot no-one has ever suggested they would be better off if they became an independant state. It is all about the size of their slice of Thailands economic cake. The Malays in the south represent under 3% of the population, a problem they may be but anything other than a troublesome faction they will not be.

Most of the discontent is just about the very uneven distribution of wealth, and the fact that modern media and the education (all be it limited) the poor have received has just made them more aware of this. These sporadic outbreaks of discontent will continue while this gulf exists.

As for violence, it is pretty evenly spread. Having lived most of the past 50 years in the UK, have seen plenty here too; I have dodged my way around IRA bombings, seen protesters beaten up and police brutality. Have also lived in a area which had 2 riots (with fatalities). Also have our own little muslim problem too.

It is politics which is more volatile in Thailand. But i expect that as long as SOME economic benefits continue to trickle down to Isaan folk (and looking at the cars and houses appearing, quite a few are getting something), most will not partake in revolution.

Maybe i will be wrong, but so far the outcomes of all the problems in the last few years have surprised me in how much poking into the wasps nest is needed before the smile cracks.