Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

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Drunk Monkey
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Re: Corona Virus / COVID-19 Important Information

Post by Drunk Monkey » March 31, 2020, 9:04 pm

Nonthaburi has a high number of cases at 48 .. white collar workers in Bkk who commute daily...could be why and the reasoning behind the curfew... the first of many IMO

DM


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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by pipoz4444 » March 31, 2020, 9:28 pm

sometimewoodworker wrote:
March 31, 2020, 7:03 pm
pipoz4444 wrote:
March 31, 2020, 6:20 pm
This is the one for China. Just wish I could believe it was accurate

Just looking at when the Case Numbers start to slow around 14 February 2020 - 70,000 (in Blue) to where the Recovery Numbers is about the same 70,000 (in Yellow) 16 March 2020, i.e. 31 Days.

So if other countries follow suit, then about 31 days after the "Trend of Daily New Cases Reducing (for say 3 consecutive days), one would then expect that the total number of People who had Recovered (being equal) are now arguably immune to a second infection, would be a good time to consider easing ease up on the daily restrictions (such a lock downs etc, city by city) in that Country.

pipoz4444
I think that even if the data coming out of China is accurate you can not draw any conclusions about any other countries. Or the natural progress of the infection.

In my opinion few countries will be able to control the spread until everyone who has been infected has progressed through the disease and is completely clear. If you can do that you are OK but if there are still people who can spread the infection will be deadly.

This is due to the extreme controls available in China but in no other country together with the technology deployed there that is not elsewhere. The facial recognition available there makes contact tracing much less of a problem.

South Korea would be a slightly better model, the problem there is that they actually have the capacity to test anyone who might have any symptoms or none at all.

Once you can stop the spread the recovery rate can catch up until then I think that the information you have is of only academic interest.

Again in my opinion, until there is a vaccine extraordinary precautions will have to stay, though not the current level of travel, and isolation restrictions.
Hi and I did say "If other Countries follow suit"

Within the Link I found this below for South Korea. Its is not complete and hard to read the time scale on the bottom (Need better eyesight). 8) 8)

For SK, it does however indicate, a flattening of the Curve (a slowdown in the rate of increase of cases) at about 7,165 Total Cases and this looks like it was around 7 March 2020

Unfortunately the Recovered Case Numbers stop at around 5,100, as of 30 March 2020. Will just have to wait until the Recovering Numbers catch up to 7,165 and see if this happens around 07 April 2020, that being the the 31 days mark, after Slowdown.

South Korea Diagnosed (Cases) vs Recovered.png



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... outh_Korea
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sometimewoodworker
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 31, 2020, 10:28 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
March 31, 2020, 9:28 pm

Hi and I did say "If other Countries follow suit"
I understood and appreciate that point.

I was making clear that the “if” can not happen due to a variety of factors not the least being the extremely extensive monitoring that is done in China and the genuine availability of tests in SK.

It will be wonderful if the China/S.K. Pattern can be replicated elsewhere but I think that long distance airborne porcine creatures or a multitude of albino elephants are much much more likely. :lol: :lol: :lol: 555
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by pipoz4444 » March 31, 2020, 11:18 pm

John Hopkins University is already undertaking the mapping and or modelling to mathematically predict the like trends for case numbers, that will eventuate in the USA and other Countries. The Link below gives you an insight into what they are doing and what they are predicting. Their present Modelling predictions appear to be based on a MAE of 86, so not perfect, but an acceptable value, given the data they have to date =D> =D>. Anyway JHU know what they are doing.

I found the last analysis done by JHU on 2020. Unfortunately it suggests that the United States is on track to experience the same levels of infection as countries such as Italy, South Korea, and Iran. [-o< [-o< I suspect JHU will update and re-forecast their predicted case numbers for the US soon

I do realize that it is only Theoretical Mathematical Modelling and in its early stage of data collection, but these guys have been practicing this analysis & modelling for a long time, and have a habit of becoming reasonably accurate with their predictions once they have collected enough base data

pipoz4444

https://towardsdatascience.com/estimati ... ce17df029a
Last edited by pipoz4444 on April 1, 2020, 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by tamada » March 31, 2020, 11:38 pm

mathusalah80 wrote:
March 31, 2020, 3:11 pm
saint wrote:
March 31, 2020, 11:24 am
tamada wrote:
March 31, 2020, 9:03 am
jackspratt wrote:
March 30, 2020, 1:13 pm
Amged El-Hawrani, a 55-year-old ear, nose and throat consultant, died on Saturday at Leicester Royal Infirmary, while Adil El Tayar, 63, an organ transplant specialist, died on Wednesday at West Middlesex University Hospital in London, it emerged. Both had contracted Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... f-pandemic
If 55 and 63 are now considered "elderly", the rest of us don't stand much chance. :shock:
Yes, 55 and 63 is definitely in the "not a spring chicken any more" age category. Reality sucks sometimes.
Maybe not to you young pups . Maybe not a spring chicken , no , more like an Autumn chicken .
Certainly not a Winter chicken , and its not started snowing yet .
So, at age 88, I suppose I could best be described as an already demised, ancient old Hen. THAT's what I would call facing reality Tamada!! :-k ;) :lol: :-"
Chicken soup?

I am already the wrong side of 63 so consider myself a hen of the old, golden variety... if I can find any!

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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by tinpeeba » April 1, 2020, 1:48 am

Interest video about how China's healthcare system led to the COVID-19 pandemic

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parrot
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by parrot » April 1, 2020, 2:51 am

Udon has identified 2 dormitories on the Rahjapat campus off of Srisuk Rd to use in the event the existing hospital system is full.
https://udontoday.co/300363-2/

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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by parrot » April 1, 2020, 6:13 am

Among a few items on Thai government websites today: police raided a bar in town that was 'closed' except for customers inside who were drinking.
And:
The government isn't taking lightly April Fools Day jokes about Covid 19. deja vu hi jack jokes at the airport from days gone by.

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Khun Paul
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by Khun Paul » April 1, 2020, 6:54 am

parrot wrote:
April 1, 2020, 2:51 am
Udon has identified 2 dormitories on the Rahjapat campus off of Srisuk Rd to use in the event the existing hospital system is full.
https://udontoday.co/300363-2/
Interesti9ng information, by the way does anyone know exactly how MANY COVID 19 cases we have here in Udon Thani and where are they ?

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sometimewoodworker
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by sometimewoodworker » April 1, 2020, 7:18 am

Khun Paul wrote:
April 1, 2020, 6:54 am
parrot wrote:
April 1, 2020, 2:51 am
Udon has identified 2 dormitories on the Rahjapat campus off of Srisuk Rd to use in the event the existing hospital system is full.
https://udontoday.co/300363-2/
Interesti9ng information, by the way does anyone know exactly how MANY COVID 19 cases we have here in Udon Thani and where are they ?
8 probably in the hospital last time I looked
https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en/
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by Drunk Monkey » April 1, 2020, 8:31 am

Heres the virus tracker by map ..not sure if this is up to date or being or being updated on a regular basis as Udon is still showing the data by province icon as are many other places.

https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en


its worth pointing out the places like Chonburi , Nonthaburi / Pathum Thani etc .. places where a high percentage of residents are Bkk based for their work and commute.

DM
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by jackspratt » April 1, 2020, 9:20 am

Without the kids at Uni, using their dorms is probably a good idea.

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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by sometimewoodworker » April 1, 2020, 10:57 am

Drunk Monkey wrote:
April 1, 2020, 8:31 am
Heres the virus tracker by map ..not sure if this is up to date or being or being updated on a regular basis as Udon is still showing the data by province icon as are many other places.

https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en
The
Did you read the ticker that is scrolling at the top and is showing in my screen shot above?
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by Drunk Monkey » April 1, 2020, 11:13 am

sometimewoodworker wrote:
April 1, 2020, 10:57 am
Drunk Monkey wrote:
April 1, 2020, 8:31 am
Heres the virus tracker by map ..not sure if this is up to date or being or being updated on a regular basis as Udon is still showing the data by province icon as are many other places.

https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en
The
Did you read the ticker that is scrolling at the top and is showing in my screen shot above?
yes i did just pointed out IF its current in that the figures are accurate ?? .. also i commented on the Udon province still having the data by province icon.
Claret n Blue all way thru .. Up the Iron
L2 Season 19/20 Codheads 0 Scunny 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2qrsItFUug
8 minutes is the point of lift off !!!!!!!

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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by vincemunday » April 1, 2020, 12:25 pm

No new cases of Covid19 in Udon Thani for 7 days, excellent news
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by sometimewoodworker » April 1, 2020, 12:27 pm

Drunk Monkey wrote:
April 1, 2020, 11:13 am
sometimewoodworker wrote:
April 1, 2020, 10:57 am
Drunk Monkey wrote:
April 1, 2020, 8:31 am
Heres the virus tracker by map ..not sure if this is up to date or being or being updated on a regular basis as Udon is still showing the data by province icon as are many other places.

https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en
The
Did you read the ticker that is scrolling at the top and is showing in my screen shot above?
yes i did just pointed out IF its current in that the figures are accurate ?? .. also i commented on the Udon province still having the data by province icon.
The data by province icon has only just started to be used so it’s not a case of still having it.

Most likely it’s due to the source providing data using that format now.
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by vincemunday » April 1, 2020, 12:52 pm

BREAKING NEWS: The PM is aware of long queues at Immigration and there is now a plan to grant automatic extension to visas for tourists who arrived in #Thailand after 1st March. More details soon. Here’s the announcement.

What we know so far:
🔸It’s in the pipeline to grant automatic extension of stay
🔸Proposal approved by cabinet on Tuesday
🔸Waiting for announcement to implement it
🔸This is for people with tourist visas who arrived after 1 March
🔸Other people still need to go to Immigration

‪#ไวรัสโคโรน่า #coronavirus‬ #COVID19 #Thailand
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by maaka » April 1, 2020, 1:36 pm

Thanks for that update Vinny...I guess one still has to go in, and go thru the usual polava, with handsome photo, moola and all.?

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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by pipoz4444 » April 1, 2020, 3:07 pm

The Link below is to the Australian Government Department of Health site, which I would say, will be very accurate and very transparent. It has some identifiable points in it

Graphs 1: New and Cumulative Confirmed Covid 19 Cases by Date (Below)

1. I would suggest that this paints a typical picture of the trend of growth in case numbers for many countries in the west but not all, given varying social and demographic factors. Still the front start of the graphs is very typical for many of the other country graphs that I have seen, in that from the time of the first recording to the time the no of cases take off/show signs of increasing is between 7 – 8 weeks

2. Then at about Day 55 (8 weeks) after the first reported case, it moves into that upward steeper trend of increasing case numbers and becomes constant in its climbing trend. The top end of the graph(Day 70) tends to suggest that the rate of increase/climb of the case numbers is still at thee same pace (near constant) as from its start on Day 55 and that the Peak or Turning Point (the start of the decline in rate of increase in case numbers) has not yet been reached. Another 2 weeks should tell, one way of the other.

New and Cumulative Confirmed Covid 19 Cases by Date.png



Chart 4: Total Confirmed Covid 19 Cases by Sex and Age (Below)

1. Calls into question, a statement by................that says Quote: This disease affects everyone "Who is not in the Age Group of 0 - 14. It clear does affect those under the age of 14 years old, as they can catch the Covid 19 under 14 years old. Whilst it doesn’t show the actual numbers, it does show that Children between 0 - 9 years old do catch the Virus, as do a number of young Adults between 10 – 19 years old

2. It also shows that a significant number of Adults between 20 -29 do catch the virus. I would speculate that this is due to them continuing their social habits and interaction, rather than self-isolating

Total confirmed Covid 19 cases by Sex and Age.png

pipoz4444


https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-a ... se-numbers
Last edited by pipoz4444 on April 1, 2020, 9:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

Post by jackspratt » April 1, 2020, 3:43 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
April 1, 2020, 3:07 pm

1. ......... other reports from several prominent Doctors that said Children under 14 years old don’t catch the Virus.
Where did you see/read this?

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