Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

[sometimewoodworker]

Samuel i live in the North of England hundreds of miles from London yet 2 days later when london went into lockdown Cumbria had its 1st few cases of this new strain theres no way it could have spread that quick from london due to our location. So you cant blame the fish market spreader for this if its hit Udon its more likely someone likely local from a village transmitting it brcause most locals are not tested due to the price tag if 8k for the test so spreaders do not know fhere carrying the new strain.

Sorry to say that your conclusion is incorrect, you seem to assume that the London lockdown would have stopped the spread from London to Cumbria. The new variant was first detected in mid-October so, as it only takes hours to travel that distance, it’s perfectly possible that infected individuals with it traveled in October, November or early December. Also Cumbria identified the first case recently but that doesn’t mean that it was the first in Cumbria as the genome is not analysed in every, probably not even in most, cases.

The same point relates to the fish market transmission. The date first reported, specially including the fact that the vast majority were asymptotic, doesn’t tell you when it started spreading. It is certain that it started at least a week probably 2 weeks or more before the first case was identified.

So yes it could have been spread by someone in a village, but it’s equally possible that it was spread from contact with the fish market. There are quite a lot of local places that sell live saltwater fish and prawns, so there is a possible route for infections as they could be (probably are) getting supply from there.

[AlexO]

Samuel i live in the North of England hundreds of miles from London yet 2 days later when london went into lockdown Cumbria had its 1st few cases of this new strain theres no way it could have spread that quick from london due to our location. So you cant blame the fish market spreader for this if its hit Udon its more likely someone likely local from a village transmitting it brcause most locals are not tested due to the price tag if 8k for the test so spreaders do not know fhere carrying the new strain.

Not really that well thought out vlad.
The London/South East area has been locked down because of the explosion of cases involving this new variant of the virus. It has been there for a good number of weeks at least before the decision to shut down the biggest populated area in the UK. Therefor entirely possible that people from darkest Cumbria have actually travelled down to the area (about 2.5 hours on a train) during that period and returned to the dark side bringing the virus back with them.

[tamada]

In my opinion thailand has managed to just delay the virus by 10 months and you can expect 2021 in Thailand to be the same as most of the rest of the world was in 2020.i wouldn’t expect the vaccine to be the silver bullet either.by the time the vaccine hits Thailand there will be many strain as it’s mutating faster than the vaccine can be discovered.thank god I had the sense to come back to the Uk and have free medical treatment,the vaccine,work.the thought of being stuck as a foreigner in Thailand and infected would of been very worrying.my advice is if your over 65yrs old or have underlying health problems is get back to you own country or stock up and stay at home and be very careful.it looks to me as the virus is super spreading through ignorance and that’s without 1,000s of infected landing in Thailand daily.
The only hope thailand had was to keep the virus out until the vaccine arrived but I’m afraid to say it was a long shot at waiting for that one.i would make the most of Xmas and new year as you’ll probably have the same Xmas as the Uk is having right now.good luck.

Isn't it easier and quicker just to say som-namnah?

[tamada]

Whats the point posting that Tammakhun unless you read thai??

What's the point of being unable to read it if you're in Cumbria?

[tamada]

Samuel i live in the North of England hundreds of miles from London yet 2 days later when london went into lockdown Cumbria had its 1st few cases of this new strain theres no way it could have spread that quick from london due to our location. So you cant blame the fish market spreader for this if its hit Udon its more likely someone likely local from a village transmitting it brcause most locals are not tested due to the price tag if 8k for the test so spreaders do not know fhere carrying the new strain.

Sorry to say that your conclusion is incorrect, you seem to assume that the London lockdown would have stopped the spread from London to Cumbria. The new variant was first detected in mid-October so, as it only takes hours to travel that distance, it’s perfectly possible that infected individuals with it traveled in October, November or early December. Also Cumbria identified the first case recently but that doesn’t mean that it was the first in Cumbria as the genome is not analysed in every, probably not even in most, cases.

The same point relates to the fish market transmission. The date first reported, specially including the fact that the vast majority were asymptotic, doesn’t tell you when it started spreading. It is certain that it started at least a week probably 2 weeks or more before the first case was identified.

So yes it could have been spread by someone in a village, but it’s equally possible that it was spread from contact with the fish market. There are quite a lot of local places that sell live saltwater fish and prawns, so there is a possible route for infections as they could be (probably are) getting supply from there.

Good read here about how relentless sleuthing by British virologists nailed this one.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55413666

[Khun Paul]

I noted that a neweer variant is abroad in South Africa, having travelled to the UK< iot is like the last variant more transmissable but seems to target the younger generation, effects seem to be the same, so again it is onloy the tranmission which has speeded up.

[Drunk Monkey]

It was always gonna happen that the government blame an illegal escapee rather than the fact some one has made huge money bringing hundreds of migrant workers in illegally to work in the fish markets and building sites ????? .. porous borders yes but these Myanmar aliens still needed and got Thai assistance at some stage .

Not sure we are at the super spreader stage YET .. and as already said the Thai government have been on the ball with track n trace so lets hope n pray this doesnt turn into UK style numbers .. even if it means another lock down.

Be careful out there folks , only essential travel for me , mask , hand washing and rubber gloves.

Looks like a sh8t start to 2021 and beyond !! but i would rather be here then in Europe the US or Ozz thats for sure

DM

[dragonz]

A few months ago when i was sick i posted i was unable to get a covid test as the doctor said " no test no covid " and was giving a line of patients with symptoms useless pills and i was attacked for the post by the usual suspects.
In the last 4 months 5 of my neighbours have died . 3 of them were sick including an english guy (was told he had liver problems ). there were no autopsies and when i ask my wife why they died she said the died as they were sick but does not know what sickness . The guy next door to me died last week was an alcoholic but still no real cause of death he was 57 yrs old . The guy opposite me died a few months ago . He was a healthy looking man 46 yrs old but was never told why he died until this morning . He developed a chest infection and a bad chest , was coughing all the time . when he died was about 200 people daily for a week at his house no masks.
I am trying to find out how many people died in the village in the last 6 months but no records but with the ones my wife knows the number is very high .
The point is nobody knows how many covid infections or deaths there are in thailand as there are very few tests (none in the villages ) and no autopsies so perhaps there are very few but there could be a massive amount

[tamada]

It's a worrying thought that the "super spreader" mutation tracked to South Africa and the U.K. that has caused such a rapid surge in both nations may have skipped to Myanmar. As far as we can tell, their late summer infection surge continues unabated.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 927313.cms

[sometimewoodworker]

Samuel i live in the North of England hundreds of miles from London yet 2 days later when london went into lockdown Cumbria had its 1st few cases of this new strain theres no way it could have spread that quick from london due to our location. So you cant blame the fish market spreader for this if its hit Udon its more likely someone likely local from a village transmitting it brcause most locals are not tested due to the price tag if 8k for the test so spreaders do not know fhere carrying the new strain.

Sorry to say that your conclusion is incorrect, you seem to assume that the London lockdown would have stopped the spread from London to Cumbria. The new variant was first detected in mid-October so, as it only takes hours to travel that distance, it’s perfectly possible that infected individuals with it traveled in October, November or early December. Also Cumbria identified the first case recently but that doesn’t mean that it was the first in Cumbria as the genome is not analysed in every, probably not even in most, cases.

The same point relates to the fish market transmission. The date first reported, specially including the fact that the vast majority were asymptotic, doesn’t tell you when it started spreading. It is certain that it started at least a week probably 2 weeks or more before the first case was identified.

So yes it could have been spread by someone in a village, but it’s equally possible that it was spread from contact with the fish market. There are quite a lot of local places that sell live saltwater fish and prawns, so there is a possible route for infections as they could be (probably are) getting supply from there.

Good read here about how relentless sleuthing by British virologists nailed this one.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55413666

Taking that data it gives you a sample percentage of 7% of reported cases and since the actual number is about 10x that the analysis is of about 0.7% of infections it’s extremely likely that many changes will not be detected, specifically as the UK it leading the numbers of genomes analysed.

[mickojak]

My wife tells me Udon Thani has 3 cases currently

[vlad]

The new strain that caused Boris to scrap his 5 day jolly over Christmas apparently only last week. We were told of the new strain then and ir eas only because cases sky Rocketed in the South. If Boris or his advisors knew the new strain was identified a few weeks or Monthes earlier why were we not told then??. I don't think i said the South was to blame for spreading it up North. I thi k it was already there but we all saw anti lockdown protestors in central london, big crowds in Oxford St and other busy shopping areas so it was always going to spread quicker in the South. Unfortunatly some here in the uk dont think its seriouse and still ignore all the rules.

[pal52]

There is at least 1 case in Udon.
Again a Seafood vendor visiting The Seafood market in Bangkok.

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/304 ... l_referral

[mak]

We're in the yellow zone.

[sometimewoodworker]

If Boris or his advisors knew the new strain was identified a few weeks or Monthes earlier why were we not told then??

The virus is mutating about twice a month, until it is seen that the mutation is different in a significant way there is no point in telling you that there is a change. The timing of the information that there is a change that is different enough is a matter of judgment but it’s almost certainly a matter of days not weeks or months.

There have been about 12,000 mutations of this virus worldwide, it’s a relatively slow mutating virus. What purpose is served by telling you of every change, unless it’s significant (this one is as far as communicate-ability is concerned) and the significance takes time to assess, doesn’t it?

Hindsight is 20-20, foresight is much less clear.

Do you really think there is anything good about telling you that an amino acid has changed every 2 weeks is anything but a very bad idea?

[mickojak]

This is, in all likelihood, good news.

All virus microbes only have a certain amount of energy to expend, so if it's become more virulent, then it's possibly less dangerous.

Can't get that new energy for free.

Time will tell.

[vincemunday]

Official #COVID19 update in #Thailand on Thursday:
5,829 people infected (+9 imported cases & +58 local cases)
4,116 discharged from hospital (+21)
1,653 in hospital
60 dead (+0)

* 1,273 migrant workers in Samut Sakhon infected. Today’s update for them will come later

[AlexO]

Daughter just arrived back from school(Nong Mek) school shut down from today, a week earlier than planned. Preventative measures or lazy teachers???

[sometimewoodworker]

This is, in all likelihood, good news.

All virus microbes only have a certain amount of energy to expend, so if it's become more virulent, then it's possibly less dangerous.

Can't get that new energy for free.

Time will tell.

Unfortunately that is not a true assessment, as a lot of the damage is not directly a product of the virus but the reaction to it. But while it is much more contagious there is no evidence that it’s effects are much different from previous versions. Also the current vaccines are likely to be reasonably effective against it and a modified vaccine will only take a few weeks to produce if needed.

[AlexO]

A few months ago when i was sick i posted i was unable to get a covid test as the doctor said " no test no covid " and was giving a line of patients with symptoms useless pills and i was attacked for the post by the usual suspects.
In the last 4 months 5 of my neighbours have died . 3 of them were sick including an english guy (was told he had liver problems ). there were no autopsies and when i ask my wife why they died she said the died as they were sick but does not know what sickness . The guy next door to me died last week was an alcoholic but still no real cause of death he was 57 yrs old . The guy opposite me died a few months ago . He was a healthy looking man 46 yrs old but was never told why he died until this morning . He developed a chest infection and a bad chest , was coughing all the time . when he died was about 200 people daily for a week at his house no masks.
I am trying to find out how many people died in the village in the last 6 months but no records but with the ones my wife knows the number is very high .
The point is nobody knows how many covid infections or deaths there are in thailand as there are very few tests (none in the villages ) and no autopsies so perhaps there are very few but there could be a massive amount

No increase in the amount of cremations at the local Wat's would give an indication. No secrets in the villages, only usual 'sick long time' and traffic deaths here as normal. The guy opposite you that died and you never knew until this morning, what was the cause of his demise???