U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

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stattointhailand
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by stattointhailand » November 25, 2020, 7:13 pm

tamada wrote:
November 20, 2020, 12:21 pm
Covid regulations will make it illegal to enter or leave Scotland

scotland closed.jpg

"The Scottish government has published draft regulations that make it illegal to enter or leave the country without a reasonable excuse, as well as significantly restricting travel within Scotland.

The regulations, which come into force on Friday at 6pm, were described as “deeply flawed” by opposition parties, which said they had “grave doubts” about the competence of Scottish ministers to legislate in this way."


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ve-country
amazin', coroni does in 10 months what the Roman's and English failed to manage in over 2000 years :-$



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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » November 26, 2020, 11:46 am

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Original
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Correction
Last edited by sometimewoodworker on November 28, 2020, 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » November 27, 2020, 12:04 pm

The USA numbers are not correct as there is a national holiday, so the drop almost certainly is poor reporting not a real improvement.

It’s really strange that a supposedly advanced country cannot actually report data on time but has to constantly update past numbers, while India is able to report accurately and regularly, so which is actually the advanced country?
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Original
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Corrected 1
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Corrected 2
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » November 29, 2020, 5:16 pm

The information on the current state of the virus and the progress of the USA numbers.
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Original
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Correction 1
Last edited by sometimewoodworker on November 30, 2020, 9:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » November 30, 2020, 9:38 am

The information on the current state of the virus
82B87F30-94D3-466A-B064-78FC5F659DA3.jpeg
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 2, 2020, 9:46 pm

The latest information is that the taking away of the responsibility for data collection and reporting from the CDC and giving it to the HHS in July has been the complete mess that it was predicted to be.

There is no confidence in the data reporting as none of the levels add up, the hospitals don’t match the countys, the county’s numbers don’t match the states and the states don’t match federal reports.
This is probably why the numbers are changing.

Due to the screwed up reporting the supply of desperately important PPE can not go to the places that need it.
3CD26488-A588-41A5-9C44-FFE7B47A6695.jpeg
Nov 29 Original
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Nov 29 Correction
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Nov 30 Original
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Nov 30 Correction
The mess up in reporting could be the reason that the December 1st number is almost a record high.

On past performance I expect to see an upward correction to these numbers.
F0485BA3-6AFA-45FF-AA6B-37F75B554673.jpeg
Dec. 1 Original
As expected
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Dec. 1 Correction 1
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 3, 2020, 8:07 am

Just an FYI the statistics on the risks of age related hospital admission for COVID-19 infections taking a baseline of the 18~29 year olds as the 1, are under

30~39 X 2 the risk.

40~49 X 3 the risk.

50~64 X 4 the risk.

65~74 X 5 the risk.

74~84 X 8 the risk.

85 -> X 13 the risk.

For those admittedly to hospital the risks of death compared to the baseline 18~29 age group are.

30~39 X 4 more likely to die.

40~49 X 10 more likely to die.

50~64 X 30 more likely to die.

65~74 X 90 more likely to die.

74~84 X 220 more likely to die.

85 -> X 630 more likely to die.

So the simple takeaway is the older you get the more and more dangerous it is to have to be admitted to hospital.
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 3, 2020, 8:55 am

Regrettably there is another mortality high that unless it’s an artefact of the 4 day weekend and the flawed HHS reporting (this is looking to be unlikely) suggests that 3,000 deaths on a single day will happen well before Christmas
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2 Dec. Original
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Deaths and polynomial trend
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The end is an artefact not a true change
Attachments
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2 Dec. Update 1
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 4, 2020, 8:03 am

200,000 plus cases and the numbers here are going to be revised up

The numbers of dead are also going to increase from the report which must now be rated as provisional as it will be updated in the next few days as the systems catch up.

FWIW the 9-11 death toll was 2,996 and was correctly a called tragedy, that preventable tragedy is going to be a daily event now.
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Provisional December 3rd
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Revision 1 December 3rd
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 4, 2020, 12:37 pm

The books under are not light reading, I would think that they are as a minimum university graduate level textbooks


If you would like to download Dr Campbell's Physiology Notes and Pathophysiology Notes as high-definition PDFs...
AT NO COST

http://159.69.48.3/
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 8, 2020, 10:12 am

Provisional data for the 7th and updated information for the last week.
The USA is at 2,300 deaths per day on a 7 day rolling average.
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 10, 2020, 8:23 am

On December 9th the USA has exceeded the number of people killed on 9/11. The provisional number, that will increase, is over 3,180
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by noosard » December 10, 2020, 8:42 am

Whyare graphs backwards
Would have thought timeline increase left to right
Or is this the chinese system

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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 12, 2020, 2:04 pm

As expected the 9th increased, the 10th and 11th are also both over3,000 the 11th will change over the next couple of days as reports catch up.
BFCEF5FF-86A0-4E9B-807A-3F9D44C28D2E.jpeg
You will see by the legend the way it is formatted, if you don’t like the format please post your own charts, I am happy to provide the underlying data.
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Deaths
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Cases
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 18, 2020, 7:54 am

The USA is now averaging over 2,500 deaths per 24 hours, over 200,000 new cases per 24 hours, and on the 16th reported over 3,500 dead.

The vaccines will help in a few months but will make no significant difference this year, probably not much this winter,
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22nd updated. The 23rd is provisional
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 30, 2020, 8:57 am

Variant 202012/01 new Covid-19 in U.K. statistical analysis summary

As with all statistical analyses the conclusions may change as more data becomes available however the numbers in the analysis are large enough that the conclusions are reliable.

Risk of reinfection: no change, still 0.6% or about 1 in 1,000, Note, reinfected individuals are usually symptomless.
Severity of illness: no change.
Risk of hospitalisation: no change.
Risk of death: no change.
Increase in transmission: yes about 50% to 55% more transmissible.
Vaccine efficacy: no evidence of changes, no expectations of change, the vaccines target several areas on the virus that are unchanged.
The current U.K. PCR test does distinguish between the original virus and the 202012 mutation, so genomic testing was only needed as a confirmation of results.


See
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _FINAL.pdf for original data and Dr Campbell for a more understandable version https://youtu.be/RW7A-6H_qNk
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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by tamada » December 30, 2020, 9:01 am

The highly infectious and (I think) misnamed "UK variant" was apparently detected in Germany last November.
Screenshot_20201230-082532.jpg
Before...
It has also just been confirmed in Colorado on a 20-something male with absolutely no travel history.
Screenshot_20201230-082437.jpg
...and after
Meanwhile, the UK government is being seriously challenged on their failed patchwork (and IMHO totally impractical) system of tiers. Tier 5 has been floated rather than bite the bullet and call it what it is, a national lock down.

The NHS claims they are already saturated, on the verge of collapse with reports of triage being administered in ambulances in some hospital driveways. Meanwhile, the £220 m flagship London Nightingale Hospital is unstaffed and has already been mostly stripped of equipment since there was never, ever enough NHS staff and doctors to operate it. I don't recall Matt Hancock mentioning staff being an issue when he emerged from a remarkably quick Covid quarantine to breathily laud the Tories for the creation of this life-saving miracle.

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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by vlad » December 30, 2020, 12:02 pm

Your dislike for the uk and our PM is admiral Tamara.

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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by tamada » December 30, 2020, 1:41 pm

vlad wrote:
December 30, 2020, 12:02 pm
Your dislike for the uk and our PM is admiral Tamara.
I am a Unionist but I am not a Tory.

The two do not necessarily have to be mutually compatible.

I am Scottish but I am not a nationalist.

See? It's easy.

TBH, outwith the stresses and travails of the pandemic, I would far rather be back home rather than languishing in this muddled, parochial backwater.

However, I'm a family man but Thailand isn't my home.

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Re: U.K. going on lockdown, USA stopping restricting movement. WTF

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 30, 2020, 2:11 pm

Note, due to reporting delays none of the drops are accurate but an artefact of delay, the real numbers are not showing anywhere near the decline. Also note the UST reporting so numbers may differ from local day reports.
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