Lockdown to end July 1 International Travel to resume

[Drunk Monkey]

10 outta 10 Tam , your prize is a turn in the barrel OK .. indeed the MOPH do collate the numbers THEY RECEIVE .. i knew that already doh..

My point being they can only work with what they are given and IMO ..thats MO .. the deaths rural areas and care homes etc are impossible to factor in as nobody knows who n where n why they passed away.


DM

[mickojak]

Jon,
That's correct.
I'm sure there are plenty of older people, close to dying, (and maybe ready to die), that catch it and just say goodbye, without any fuss.

But, same all round the world.
Impossible to know.
Not much we can do about that.
Mick

[tamada]

Three people have died in our moobahn in the past month.

1) A seriously old guy passed peacefully in his sleep. Old age

2) A younger chap that had untreatable cancer. Inevitable.

3) Tragically, an 8 month old infant born of a yaabaa head teen mother that was doomed upon conception.

Thus the normal attrition rate goes on. If any single one of them had Covid-19 related, I am very confident that the local health authorities would have been all over this like a rash. You simply cannot hide dead bodies, especially in the boonies.

[cjd01]

Three people have died in our moobahn in the past month.

1) A seriously old guy passed peacefully in his sleep. Old age

2) A younger chap that had untreatable cancer. Inevitable.

3) Tragically, an 8 month old infant born of a yaabaa head teen mother that was doomed upon conception.

Thus the normal attrition rate goes on. If any single one of them had Covid-19 related, I am very confident that the local health authorities would have been all over this like a rash. You simply cannot hide dead bodies, especially in the boonies.

On reading you post something occurred to me
In the west we have large groups of elderly / vulnerable congregated together in aged care facilities here in Asia it is common for the old to be cared for in family therefore a pandemic such as this isn't as easily transmitted, could be I'm way off beam but if the figures here are to be believed there has to be a reason and it sure isn't Thai cleanliness although I don't doubt their immune system is way stronger than ours.

[noosard]

Three people have died in our moobahn in the past month.

1) A seriously old guy passed peacefully in his sleep. Old age

2) A younger chap that had untreatable cancer. Inevitable.

3) Tragically, an 8 month old infant born of a yaabaa head teen mother that was doomed upon conception.

Thus the normal attrition rate goes on. If any single one of them had Covid-19 related, I am very confident that the local health authorities would have been all over this like a rash. You simply cannot hide dead bodies, especially in the boonies.

On reading you post something occurred to me
In the west we have large groups of elderly / vulnerable congregated together in aged care facilities here in Asia it is common for the old to be cared for in family therefore a pandemic such as this isn't as easily transmitted, could be I'm way off beam but if the figures here are to be believed there has to be a reason and it sure isn't Thai cleanliness although I don't doubt their immune system is way stronger than ours.

You should come to the local clinic 3rd Tuesday of the month at 6.00am
Kind of scary seeing so many with chronic illnesses from the local villages
My guess would be at least 1 sick person per household
You are correct that the sick and old are more isolated than a nursing home or hospice in western world countries

[tamada]

I worked for a couple of pre-monsoon seasons in Myanmar, about two hours north of Yangon in rice farming country. For the second season, my client's community commitment involved providing a mobile clinic that visited all the rural communities that we worked through. I was surprised at the eventual attendance numbers as these became more popular. The plan started with their visiting three villages each day but towards the end, they had to cap the number of patients at each stop as sometimes as much as 80 men, women and kids would be in the yard waiting for the doctor's minivan to arrive. It was obvious kids and elderly were the bulk of patients and I recall respiratory and skin issues were the main treatment categories for the oldies with gastrointestinal issues predominantly in infants and children running third.

There were doctors in some of the larger towns and enough pharmacies and rural clinics and hospitals, just like Thailand. But this meant someone getting on a motorbike and taking a day off to go see a doctor whereas this 'flying doctor' came to them.

Not at all sure how the authorities there are managing to collate all their Covid-19 related numbers though. There's a great 4G data network but as you move away from highways and into the more remote locations, there's really not much. On the northern 'jungle' job, we had one of our subbies fall out of a tree while trying to get a better mobile phone signal and partially skewered himself on a broken lower branch on the way down. This was at 8 PM on a fly camp about two hours from a base camp and a further 3 hours up river from the nearest hospital. Finally got him into a clinic by longboat around 4 AM where the nurse, having no doctor in attendance, recommended he be transferred by car (and ferry) to a bigger regional hospital, another 3 hours away. The HSE guys thought this would get it through to the local subbies that if you screw up and get seriously hurt, you'll probably die. But them being Buddhists, that was a hard sell.

[AlexO]

Three people have died in our moobahn in the past month.

1) A seriously old guy passed peacefully in his sleep. Old age

2) A younger chap that had untreatable cancer. Inevitable.

3) Tragically, an 8 month old infant born of a yaabaa head teen mother that was doomed upon conception.

Thus the normal attrition rate goes on. If any single one of them had Covid-19 related, I am very confident that the local health authorities would have been all over this like a rash. You simply cannot hide dead bodies, especially in the boonies.

On reading you post something occurred to me
In the west we have large groups of elderly / vulnerable congregated together in aged care facilities here in Asia it is common for the old to be cared for in family therefore a pandemic such as this isn't as easily transmitted, could be I'm way off beam but if the figures here are to be believed there has to be a reason and it sure isn't Thai cleanliness although I don't doubt their immune system is way stronger than ours.

Would agree with both posts but there is an other senario worth looking at. The majority of deaths world wide have been in reletively cool winter countries. Most of Europe is now moving into a warmer summer period and the cases and deaths are dropping. SEA is pretty warm/hot most of the year and perhaps has missed the worst of it. Will be worth watching when we get to the cooler/colder weather in the areas where the majority of the Thai 'high season' tourists come from. Australia and New Zealand might be an indication as they are now moving into their winter after claiming they have beat the virus.

[maaka]

they maybe claiming to have beat the virus but even those two countries are looking at September as a possible opening up of borders just between themselves. A Transtasman bubble. So Thailand may be abit rash in an earlier opening...

[Whistler]

Alex,

Most of the countries in tropical climates are third world, probably less air travel etc. However there are still hot spots, Iran, Singapore and now India have had bad experiences. Brazil is now out of control and other parts of South America are hot spots

[tamada]

Alex,

Most of the countries in tropical climates are third world, probably less air travel etc. However there are still hot spots, Iran, Singapore and now India have had bad experiences. Brazil is now out of control and other parts of South America are hot spots

Brazil will be hard one to analyze stretching as it does from equatorial to temperate climes south of Sao Paulo to the border with Argentina. Throw in the reverse seasons of the southern hemisphere and the Bolsonaro balls-up, that one will always be an outlier regardless of how it plays out.

The Antipodean "transtasman bubble" may be a better, safer more reliable study on how climate affects Covid-19.

When does flu season in Australia and New Zealand's typically fall? Most references are couched in northern hemisphere terms where one is urged to get one's flu shots before the autumn winter (cooler) weather. Based on the season reversal, the Antipodes second wave danger would be next spring and summer, no?

[cjd01]

The flu season in Australia is from April till October, peak supposedly August
generally the seasons are reversed from UK

[AlexO]

Alex,

Most of the countries in tropical climates are third world, probably less air travel etc. However there are still hot spots, Iran, Singapore and now India have had bad experiences. Brazil is now out of control and other parts of South America are hot spots

Whistler, Iran has cold winters so not a good example. Singapore is a major importer of labour from other nations. Brazil, I have no figures to say if the majority of cases are from the warm/hot regions or the cooler more southerly parts of the Country. Just think that maybe the colder winter Southern Hemisphere Nations might be a good indicator of the chances of a second wave of infections.

[AlexO]

Three people have died in our moobahn in the past month.

1) A seriously old guy passed peacefully in his sleep. Old age

2) A younger chap that had untreatable cancer. Inevitable.

3) Tragically, an 8 month old infant born of a yaabaa head teen mother that was doomed upon conception.

Thus the normal attrition rate goes on. If any single one of them had Covid-19 related, I am very confident that the local health authorities would have been all over this like a rash. You simply cannot hide dead bodies, especially in the boonies.

Have to agree Tam, out here we have had lots less funerals than normal due to less traffic accidents caused by the dreaded booze or normal stupidity of the young speedsters at night. Our village boss is very good at keeping people informed (only one person hospitalised after coming back from Singapore with symptoms) and while he did tell the local shops that they needed to enforce the booze ban he has made sure that the elderly have had some food and had transport to the local hospital for normal meds etc.

[Whistler]

Alex,

Most of the countries in tropical climates are third world, probably less air travel etc. However there are still hot spots, Iran, Singapore and now India have had bad experiences. Brazil is now out of control and other parts of South America are hot spots

Whistler, Iran has cold winters so not a good example. Singapore is a major importer of labour from other nations. Brazil, I have no figures to say if the majority of cases are from the warm/hot regions or the cooler more southerly parts of the Country. Just think that maybe the colder winter Southern Hemisphere Nations might be a good indicator of the chances of a second wave of infections.

Alex,

Might be hard to draw a comparison, the Northern Hemisphere hotspots had no warning, COCID hit before they knew how bad it was, Also large populations.

Australia is on alert and only 25M people.

[AlexO]

Alex,

Most of the countries in tropical climates are third world, probably less air travel etc. However there are still hot spots, Iran, Singapore and now India have had bad experiences. Brazil is now out of control and other parts of South America are hot spots

Whistler, Iran has cold winters so not a good example. Singapore is a major importer of labour from other nations. Brazil, I have no figures to say if the majority of cases are from the warm/hot regions or the cooler more southerly parts of the Country. Just think that maybe the colder winter Southern Hemisphere Nations might be a good indicator of the chances of a second wave of infections.

Alex,

Might be hard to draw a comparison, the Northern Hemisphere hotspots had no warning, COCID hit before they knew how bad it was, Also large populations.

Australia is on alert and only 25M people.

Whistler, given that to date there are no preventative measures apart from lockdowns etc and as you say Nations are now on alert, it should be fairly simple to monitor for any increase (spike) in cases of the virus. Again this all depends on how honest National Administrations are in reporting cases.