thai growth weakest since .......

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the-monk
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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by the-monk » July 19, 2020, 3:32 pm

Japanese national debt is denominated in YEN.... shielded from currency wars.
94 % of the Japanese National debt is held by Japanese, for the 50 % bhelp by the japanese public it's paying interest to Japanese who in turn stimulate the economy.
42 % of the Japanese National debt is made of bond issued by the Bank of Japan.
Yes it is borrowing from yourself.
Yes this debt to the BOJ ( Japanese government ) could be wiped out without much consequences at a stroke of a pen.
Here is an intersting article describing the Japanese national debt dilemma.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/19325 ... stainable-
Here is the full text:
==
Japan's debt mountain: How is it sustainable?
PUBLISHED : 10 JUN 2020 AT 15:45

WRITER: AFP

0


6
The pile keeps growing.
The pile keeps growing.
TOKYO: Already the global leader in accumulating debt, Japan is adding nearly $2 trillion to its mountain this fiscal year with record stimulus packages to cushion the impact of coronavirus.

With debt levels around two and a half times the size of its economy, Japan manages to keep government bond yields ultra low and investor confidence high that it can avoid default.

- How did we get here? -

Whichever way you look at it, Japan's debt is unfathomably large. According to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), at the end of 2019, it stood at 1,328,000,000,000,000 yen.

This is equivalent to around $12.2 trillion, just over half the total amount of US debt in absolute terms but by far the biggest pile when measured against the size of even Japan's mighty economy (around 240% of gross domestic product).

Japan's debt began to swell in the 1990s when its finance and real estate bubble burst to disastrous effect.

With stimulus packages and a rapidly ageing population that pushes up healthcare and social security costs, Japan's debt first breached the 100-percent-of-GDP mark at the end of the 1990s.

It hit 200% in 2010 and is now around 240% of GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund.

On Wednesday, Japan's parliament agreed anti-coronavirus measures worth 117 trillion yen -- which is likely to push the GDP ratio well above 250%.

- Isn't this a problem? -

To finance this debt, the Japanese government issues bonds known as JGBs.

These are snapped up in enormous volumes by the BoJ, the country's central bank that is officially independent but in practice closely co-ordinates economic policy with the government.

As part of anti-virus measures, the bank has removed its self-imposed ceiling on buying JGBs, giving itself unlimited purchasing firepower. It holds more than half of all JGBs.

These purchases support the price of the JGBs in the debt market and keep the yield on the bonds low (prices and yields move in opposite directions).

This means that in effect, the government is being financed by the central bank at an ultra-low (or even negative) interest rate, making it more sustainable.

"The ultra-low rate conditions created by very much accommodative monetary policy by BoJ can be one of the reasons" that Japan's mountain is less problematic than for other high-debt countries around the world, said Takashi Miwa, an economist at Nomura bank.

- Who else buys Japan's debt? -

Risk-averse private and institutional investors also have a healthy appetite for JGBs because they see them as a safe place to put their money, burned by a history of stock market bubbles.

"A large portion of wealth is held by seniors who lack financial literacy and prioritise stability rather than return," said Shigeto Nagai, from Oxford Economics.

"With limited investment and lending opportunities domestically, banks, insurance companies and pension funds still need the JGB to place their vast amount of excess savings," Nagai told AFP.

The bonds are denominated in yen, still seen as a safe haven in troubled economic times and the proportion held by foreign institutions is very low -- making Japan less vulnerable to external pressure.

In fact, 90% of the debt is held by Japanese investors.

Another thing that keeps market confidence high: Japan is the world's biggest creditor, holding more than $3 trillion in net assets in foreign currency reserves and direct investment abroad.

- How high can you go? -

The growing mountain of debt means that, even with ultra-low interest rates, the amount Japan's government pays for repayments is its second-largest budget line.

The only way to avoid adding to the pile is to reduce budget deficits by boosting taxes or cutting public spending -- but this threatens to throttle growth in Japan's already recession-hit economy.

One drastic step could be to write off the debt held by the BoJ -- a step that would be an "accounting trick" with "no consequence" on the real economy, said Frederic Burguiere, an economist specialising in Asia.

"But this does not take into account the moral dimension of economic mechanisms... if we allow states not to repay their debts, what becomes the rules for private investors and the state itself?" asked Burguiere.

==



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Laan Yaa Mo
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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by Laan Yaa Mo » July 21, 2020, 9:17 am

papafarang wrote:
July 19, 2020, 10:56 am
I think you should consider Canadian debt after all you're going to have to pay for it eventually.
Not me. It is future generations which are going to be hit hard just like future English generations will have to pay for the debt the country has accrued during the pandemic.
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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by Doodoo » July 21, 2020, 9:47 am

So what part of the Debt are countries paying for now, WW2, KoreanWar debts?
If you over spend, you owe, the you pay, simple

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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by papafarang » July 21, 2020, 10:47 am

Laan Yaa Mo wrote:
July 21, 2020, 9:17 am
papafarang wrote:
July 19, 2020, 10:56 am
I think you should consider Canadian debt after all you're going to have to pay for it eventually.
Not me. It is future generations which are going to be hit hard just like future English generations will have to pay for the debt the country has accrued during the pandemic.
From what I understand north Korea has spent £2.50 so far so I don't think they're worried :lol:
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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by dunroaming » July 21, 2020, 11:43 am

papafarang wrote:
July 21, 2020, 10:47 am
Laan Yaa Mo wrote:
July 21, 2020, 9:17 am
papafarang wrote:
July 19, 2020, 10:56 am
I think you should consider Canadian debt after all you're going to have to pay for it eventually.
Not me. It is future generations which are going to be hit hard just like future English generations will have to pay for the debt the country has accrued during the pandemic.
From what I understand north Korea has spent £2.50 so far so I don't think they're worried :lol:
Who lent them the money? China?

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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by Whistler » July 21, 2020, 12:54 pm

papafarang wrote:
July 19, 2020, 11:52 am
pipoz4444 wrote:
July 19, 2020, 11:45 am
I presume that you are referring to "External Debt" or what is often referred to as Foreign Debt.

Namely, the component of total debt held by Creditors of Foreign Countries (i.e. non-residents of the debtor's country), borrowed from foreign lenders,such as commercial banks, governments, or international financial institutions.

pipoz4444
That's what I was thinking ,a country can't really borrow from itself ,international banks fund the borrowing . I wonder how much more the banks will OWN us after its all over. I remember a meme saying the whole world was in debt to the tune of 212 trillion dollars, but to who ?...oh yeh banks :lol:
Countries very much borrow from themselves. It has various euphinisms, the most popular of late being 'quanitative easing', which is a BS term for printing money which has no financial backing like the old gold standard. It is the principal driver of the deficits in many Western countries. The US being a glaring example.

If that chicken comes home to roost, heaven help the world economy on this debt bubble.
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papafarang
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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by papafarang » July 21, 2020, 12:59 pm

dunroaming wrote:
July 21, 2020, 11:43 am
papafarang wrote:
July 21, 2020, 10:47 am
Laan Yaa Mo wrote:
July 21, 2020, 9:17 am
papafarang wrote:
July 19, 2020, 10:56 am
I think you should consider Canadian debt after all you're going to have to pay for it eventually.
Not me. It is future generations which are going to be hit hard just like future English generations will have to pay for the debt the country has accrued during the pandemic.
From what I understand north Korea has spent £2.50 so far so I don't think they're worried :lol:
Who lent them the money? China?
No it can e out of their £5 rainy day fund :lol:
Hansa village clubhouse . Tel 0981657001 https://www.google.co.th/maps/place/Han ... 5851?hl=en

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mech_401
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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by mech_401 » July 23, 2020, 1:27 am

Whistler wrote:
July 21, 2020, 12:54 pm

Countries very much borrow from themselves. It has various euphinisms, the most popular of late being 'quanitative easing', which is a BS term for printing money which has no financial backing like the old gold standard. It is the principal driver of the deficits in many Western countries. The US being a glaring example.

If that chicken comes home to roost, heaven help the world economy on this debt bubble.
whistler if you like/enjoy studying fed monetary policy , it might be of interest to you that u.s. holds 8,000 tons of gold reserves. the u.k. i think has 300 tons, way down the list . yes , it's true the u.k.
treasurer gordon brown sold 1/2 reserves in 2000
at a ridiculous price. a disasterous u.k. decision.

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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by mech_401 » July 23, 2020, 1:35 am

" quantitative easing" actually that term has been around nearly 100 yrs already. you could write pgs
on what it supposedly means. :-s it was one of your boys john maynard keyes who started all
this interventionist thinking. what would you say is
state of england's economy? looks frightfully stale

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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by pipoz4444 » July 23, 2020, 11:31 am

[/quote]

whistler if you like/enjoy studying fed monetary policy , it might be of interest to you that u.s. holds 8,000 tons of gold reserves. the u.k. i think has 300 tons, way down the list . yes , it's true the u.k.
treasurer gordon brown sold 1/2 reserves in 2000
at a ridiculous price. a disasterous u.k. decision.
[/quote]

Yes one of the dumbest, if not the most stupid decisions, every made by a person in charge of a Countries finances. Sold some 395 Tones for US 275 per ounce = US 3.5 Billion, some 20 years ago.

With today's Gold Price at US 1876 per ounce or thereabouts he would have raked in around US 23.9 Billion [-( [-(

Good one Gordon :confused:

At the same time GB also advocated for, removing most if not all of the "Unpayable" Third World Debt. I suspect that the UK was not holding much of that "Unpayable Third World Debt", at the time of GB's speak to the UN, so it wasn't his money the was giving away :confused:

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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by pipoz4444 » July 23, 2020, 11:37 am

It won't only be Thailand's economy that takes a beating over the next two years, in part related to a slow down in tourism, many other Counties in Asia will be in the same boat.

pipoz4444
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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by Doodoo » July 23, 2020, 12:15 pm

Not just Asian Tourism I would think the whole world would be suffering tourist wise. Dont think USA is getting many external Tourists right now wanting to go to Disney World.
Its not just the virus its the threat that the country you are going to or from all of a sudden closes the borders and you are stuck for maybe months if not longer. Could you afford it???

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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by pipoz4444 » July 23, 2020, 1:05 pm

Doodoo wrote:
July 23, 2020, 12:15 pm
Not just Asian Tourism I would think the whole world would be suffering tourist wise. Dont think USA is getting many external Tourists right now wanting to go to Disney World.
Its not just the virus its the threat that the country you are going to or from all of a sudden closes the borders and you are stuck for maybe months if not longer. Could you afford it???
I agree, but I think you need to be prepared in the future, if you travel anywhere, for the possibility of getting stuck, whether it be the virus or the availability of flights or paying for quarantine etc... Have access to some spare cash.

For these reasons, I think people will fly less in the future, at least over the next 2 years, i.e. say taking one holiday a year instead of the two they took in the past. Inevitably over the next few years, there will be a lesser number of Tourists moving around the World, which probably means less Flight Route options and most likely higher Air Fare prices from the Airlines that survive. On a positive note, it should translate into cheaper Hotel, Restaurant and Entertainment prices. \:D/ \:D/

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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by Whistler » July 23, 2020, 2:18 pm

mech_401 wrote:
July 23, 2020, 1:35 am
" quantitative easing" actually that term has been around nearly 100 yrs already. you could write pgs
on what it supposedly means. :-s it was one of your boys john maynard keyes who started all
this interventionist thinking. what would you say is
state of england's economy? looks frightfully stale
Yes, it is classic Kensian theory from 1930's. However it was not a term, nor a mainstream strategy used in the developed world for over 60 years until the GFC.

Interestingly enough, it was used with horrendous outcomes in some places. I still hold 5 notes for one hundred trillion Zimbabwe dollars that I bought ten years ago as an investment, now worth quite a bit by note collectors.
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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by mech_401 » July 24, 2020, 12:36 pm

quantitative easing or attempts at stimulus is not
just limited to the printing of paper money.

in the 30s , public works projects on an unheard of
scale were undertaken in u.s. there was the issuance of municipal bonds . there are fed's attempts at adjusting interbank interest rates. in more recent times, even infusing capital into failing companies . sometimes money is returned.

look at u.k. ? a higher debt vs. gdp ratio , paper money that is guaranteed by pitifully little gold
reserves, a stagnant stock market and economy. leaders educated posh unis can't balance ckbk
state pension age rising year-after-year. the selling
off of nearly all britain's manufacturing co's =;

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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by mech_401 » July 25, 2020, 8:22 am

gold prices continue to surge

1,900$ per ounce or locally 28,500฿ per bahtweight . unlike brits, thais hold large reserves

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Re: thai growth weakest since .......

Post by GT93 » August 2, 2020, 3:36 pm

Here's a video from a Thai basher on the Thai economic problems:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oux48X00HF0

Take from it what you will. The loss of jobs and household debt levels in Thailand are big concerns. I suppose we're all hearing stories about people we know in Thailand now being up the creek.
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