Baht What up with Dat?????

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Bump
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Bump » March 3, 2006, 10:34 am

Englsih translation why i it doing what it's doing at the moment.

Theory was that the baht would weaken with all the poitical upheaval, it's gettting stronger why?



Buom Pouy
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Post by Buom Pouy » March 3, 2006, 10:44 am

That the magic of Thailand. Isn't it :D

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Post by Bump » March 3, 2006, 11:03 am

Yes this one is very surprising actually it looks like it's just following it's annual ups and downs, which appears to flow with the high and low of the tourist season.

Off season would seem to be the best time to transfer funds, if one were talking about large transactions.

Since we are on the subject of money,which banks are offering interest on accounts, more in reality then most farrangs get for thier money?

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Post by businessman » March 3, 2006, 11:27 am

There has been a lot of foreign cash going in to the Thai stock market this year and not just Mr T's dosh.Those buyers have to sell their home currency and buy the Baht.

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Post by arjay » March 3, 2006, 1:00 pm

Yes, I too am p-----'d off with the strengthening baht. I need to bring some money from England and the x-rate keeps going the wrong way. :evil:

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Post by Bump » March 3, 2006, 1:12 pm

businessman wrote:There has been a lot of foreign cash going in to the Thai stock market this year and not just Mr T's dosh.Those buyers have to sell their home currency and buy the Baht.
Thats interesting wonder if that is because they think Taksin is staying or going. :?

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Post by businessman » March 3, 2006, 3:44 pm

For those of us going from GBP to Baht,it don't look too good as rates in the USA and Thailand are on the way up(control inflation) and in the UK there have even been calls for a rate cut. :( We might be saved by a glimmer of a strong housing market in the UK. :)

As for Mr T's billions of Baht,all the commercial rates offered special rates of interest to get his huge deposits so i guess the dosh may already be converted.

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Post by BKKSTAN » March 3, 2006, 4:12 pm

I think the pressure by the USA on China to devalue their Yuan might be an influence.Plus there is strong foreign investment of late into Thailand.Big money is making money in Thailand,whether Thai or foreign.Only the middle class and poor are feeling the inflation bite,including us retired characters(foreign middle class)!
I have seen my pension reduced by over 20% since moving here.I was going to transfer some more money lasy year when the baht took off from 38.5 to 42,but waited to long.Hope 38.5 is the bottom again.

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Post by Dakoda » March 3, 2006, 7:29 pm

Businessman wrote
There has been a lot of foreign cash going in to the Thai stock market this year and not just Mr T's dosh.Those buyers have to sell their home currency and buy the Baht.

Read or saw something on the line of the businessman, either tv, newspaper, internet. Might start to go the other way after all the assets are sold to singapore in a few months :?

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Post by arjay » March 4, 2006, 12:02 pm

Sounds like you might well be on the right track. Got this from today's Bangkok Post. If I've understood it correctly, maybe the baht will start to ease back some more after March 9th.

QUOTE FROM BANGKOK POST

Baht eases off after steady appreciation
PARISTA YUTHAMANOP

The baht eased yesterday after steadily appreciating over the past few weeks as Singapore's Temasek Holdings brought in funds for a tender offer to Shin Corp shareholders, say currency dealers. External factors that resulted in Japanese yen and Chinese yuan appreciation also helped buoy the baht, they said.

The baht closed at 38.76/78 to the US dollar yesterday, compared with 38.64/66 on Thursday.

The yen closed at 116.26 to a dollar, down from 115.55 in the morning and the yuan stood at 8.0354/0404 to a dollar, up from Thursday.

Satian Tanasarit, chief of treasury and markets at TMB Bank, said there had been steady capital inflows over the past few weeks in the swap and spot markets.

''The [special] funds were brought in [to convert to baht] for the tender offer for Shin Corp's retail shareholders ahead of the deadline [March 9]. The deal was originally structured through the swap market, but its size is so big that the buyers [of baht] have had to split it with the spot market.''

Aspen and Cedar, two companies controlled by Temasek, have tendered for 1.515 billion baht outstanding in Shin shares and 24 million shares under the employee stock option programme for 49.25 baht per share, open until next Thursday.

Fund inflows resulted in the baht swinging by 64 satang last Thursday, from 39.005/025 to a dollar.

Mr Satian said buying by local dealers for profit-taking also pushed the baht up on Thursday.

The future trend of the baht would hinge on the yen and yuan, once Temasek closed its tender offer, he added.

''Under the Bank of Thailand's foreign exchange controls, the baht has been fairly stable. That's why it has swung sharply from such capital inflows,'' he said.

Usara Wilaipich, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thailand), said the market expected the Bank of Japan to raise its interest rate for the first time in five years, which would contribute to the appreciation of the yen.

As well, China remained under continuing pressure from the United States to revalue the yuan further.

The domestic political situation would be a key factor for the baht in the short-term, given that foreign investors had large positions on the Thai stock market.

''We have monitored the reaction of foreign investors to the political situation. They now have high exposure in the local bourse, given 200 billion baht in total net buying currently,'' said Mrs Usara. ''An unexpected political insurgency could put pressure on the baht.''

However, foreign investors could shift funds into the bond market which offers a high 4% yield for three- to six- month terms, instead of leaving the country abruptly, she said.

Tom Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, research head at Tisco Securities, said high oil prices and imports of raw materials for megaprojects would lead the baht to depreciate this year.

''The baht will remain strong, if there isn't much megaproject investment this year. ... The economy is unlikely to be materially affected this year [by the political turmoil],'' he said.

''Investors in the real sector will not change their minds on a daily basis, once they have made their decisions.''

Supavud Saicheua, managing director of Phatra Securities, said foreign investors expected the Thai Rak Thai party to stay in government after the April 2 election.

''In any case, they will watch whether the past government's pro-growth and proactive economic policies continue and whether the country will survive in an era of globalisation.''

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Post by businessman » March 4, 2006, 12:39 pm

We can only hope that Mr T decides to invest his cash in foreign markets.If he were to leave office he might be a little nervous of the next administration eyeing his pile of cash.

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Post by JimboPSM » April 30, 2006, 7:03 am

Not made a comment on this before as I have been in Udon for the last three months and am only just starting to catch up on all the posts I missed while I was away.

The current rate of THB v USD is a function of a number of factors and the current political uncertainties in Thailand is only one of those factors.

There are two main factors in the rise of THB against USD (plus a whole host of others too numerous to mention):

1. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand has been tracking the rise in US interest rates and using the same reasons, however the rationale for the rise in the US rates does not apply in Thailand as the structure of the economies are simply not comparable.
2. The US budget deficit which is continuing to run out of control to even higher mind blowing levels.

The result of the two factors above has been a net appreciation in the THB of about 10% in the last nine months which (IMHO) is excessive at this time.

Just to expand a little and quantify the US budget deficit numbers, the following figures are extracted from the 2004 and 2005 "Financial Report of the United States Government" which is produced by the Financial Management Service Department of the US Treasury, website at http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/

The reported "Unified Budget Deficit" of the US in billions of dollars for the last 3 years are: 374.8 (2003), 412.3 (2004) and 318.5 (2005) a total of 1,105.6 billion dollars (NB - these are the figures you see reported on CNN, BBC, Fox etc).

However the "Net Operating Cost" which is the real deficit in billions of dollars for the last 3 years are: 667.6 (2003), 615.6 (2004), and 760.0 (2005) a total of 2,043.2 billion dollars (NB - I have yet to find any media outlet report these numbers but these are the ones that the economists and money market professionals have in their financial models).

Although I said above that the appreciation of the THB against USD is excessive at this time, unfortunately (unless there is a dramatic change in the US budget deficit) in the medium term of say two to five years it is more than likely that the appreciation will (IMHO) be even more and could result in the THB operating in the range of 30 to 35 against the USD.

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Post by BKKSTAN » April 30, 2006, 8:42 am

I hope it isn't the USA budget deficit that is the cause!!I can't ever see it diminishing.What I don't understand is why the baht is changing so fast now!I am only thinking out loud,I definitely don't know anything.LOL,I am the guy that when gold hit $400,I mentioned to my wife that I thought it would not go higher and maybe we ought to sell her gold.One day she came home and said''guess what honey,I sold the gold''!!NOW,she keeps looking at me like ''maybe you not to smart''.And my mind says''but sweetie,I didn't tell you to sell it,I was only thinking out loud''.duh!
Nice to have Ray23 back!

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Post by banpaeng » April 30, 2006, 11:22 am

Way to go Stan. :D

Glad I am not the only one that gets those looks.

My only saving grace right now is that I chose the "O" visa which does not require me to move funds. When I do it is ouch but am trying to limit this.

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Post by arjay » April 30, 2006, 1:48 pm

I know what you mean about thinking out loud. I only have to mention something, or a bounce a thought off her and she thinks it's gospel. I have learnt to be very careful of such things, otherwise I get accused of lying, or saying something I didn't then do.

The strength of the the baht, is a bit worrying. You would have thought with all the election uncertainty in thailand, that would have weakened it, but no such luck.

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Post by aj » April 30, 2006, 2:38 pm

Apparently the exchange rate is as much to do with the british pound as the Baht and I am told that the pound is not all that good at the moment so part of the drop in exchange rate due to that . I gave up follwing the money market years ago but its what a uk source told me.. Also was passing the Bangkok bank yesterday and saw a notice offering 5.79 interest ,obviously not got any details but if its right without tying your cash up for years on end then its as good as you can get in the Uk on small ammounts. Will go find out more tomorrow anyway .

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Post by Bump » April 30, 2006, 5:07 pm

I get the impression that China is really driving most of the Asian currencies in reality. The increase as best I understnand it is not doing a lot for the export picture in Thailand. Defecit, nothing is going to happen with that until we are out of Iraq. Uncle Bill made some good moves on the defecit, but a large part of tha came from military cuts, not likely at the moment. Wouldn't particualry happy about it but I can survive thirty and still keep my annual, there aer a farrangs around that can't that would be very sad.

I wonder if this tend to run to the long term how many will move on whewre they can get moore bang for the buck. Don't see a lot of change in the Philippine peso for example.

I really don't see any benefit for the average Thai, am I missing something?

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Post by Bump » April 30, 2006, 6:50 pm

Thought this was intersting, if it's correct I won't be buying the new bike as quickly as I had planned

Thai baht, Friday, April 28 2006, 16:00 EST DST (2006-04-28 20:00 UTC)
Volatility, % 95% prediction interval
Currency = THB 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year 1 Mo low 1 Mo high 3 Mo low 3 Mo high
Australian dollar 28.378841 6.09 7.89 6.95 27.3394 29.6170 26.6937 30.6622
British pound 67.955841 6.62 6.67 6.30 65.2074 70.2785 62.9590 71.6792
Canadian dollar 33.410073 5.31 6.68 7.35 32.2294 34.7016 31.4305 35.7227

Euro 47.124273 7.52 6.95 7.07 45.1653 49.0430 43.7123 50.4153

New Zealand dollar 23.793384 10.69 11.14 8.91 22.0564 24.8066 20.4195 25.0285

US dollar 37.499800 3.66 5.34 4.70 35.7795 37.7026 33.6713 36.8673

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Post by rossdunstan » April 30, 2006, 6:56 pm

Ray,

Possible to post the link where you got that info?

Thanks

Ross

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Post by Bump » April 30, 2006, 9:52 pm

Found it on a thread Thai Visa, somethign about I told you dollar was going down can't remember the exact title. Has the linki there I will try to find it but my adsl line has been going in and out all day.

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