Baht What up with Dat?????

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pipoz4444
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » November 19, 2017, 1:07 pm

Propping Up the Thai Baht: Their is no logical reason to spend Thai reserves to prop up the Baht, given the Thai economy is predominantly export orientated, along with a demand/need for tourists & property investment (Condo monies). So one would expect that the Thai the economy would do better, if the Baht was weaker, around the 35 plus mark. [-o<

Looking back a year to early 2016, the USD to other benchmark currencies, such as the AUD, CAD & GBP, appears to have weakened by around 5% , give or take. In parallel, the USD has weakened some 8.5% against the Thai Baht over the past 12 months (according to the XE Currency Charts). Alternatively the Thai Baht has gained 8.5% against the USD. 8-[

At an exchange rate of TB 32.8 to the USD, we are heading back to the average exchange rate, from December 2013 through to April 2015. A bit of historical info.

Looking back to April-May 2015, the Thai Baht weaken steeply, arguably for a specific event/circumstances, at that time. I cant see any similar or other significant circumstances contributing to a weakening of the Thai Baht, in the near future, so I think we are stuck in the 32's or even possibly less, for quite a while, much like we were in years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and part of 2015. :-k

Personally, I think the Thai Baht has just finally settled back to where it was, before the events of the past 30 months

Just my two cents worth

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Balthasar G.
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Balthasar G. » January 18, 2018, 9:02 pm

Thai Baht manipulated? You don't say so!

BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation
In a rare move, the Bank of Thailand has threatened to investigate some financial institutions with operations in Thailand for possible involvement in baht speculation.

The central bank's announcement comes amid the baht's continued rally against the US dollar. The local currency, up nearly 2% versus the greenback in 2018, is now the second-best performer in Asia this year after the Malaysian ringgit.

The central bank has found that some financial institutions' behaviour could indicate involvement in baht speculation through heavy transaction volume, said Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob, who added that such practices have been done in favour of customers who may be speculating in baht ...
I hope I die in my sleep like my grand dad did, not screaming like his passengers

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Stantheman
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Stantheman » January 19, 2018, 2:47 am

Balthasar G. wrote:
January 18, 2018, 9:02 pm
Thai Baht manipulated? You don't say so!

BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation
In a rare move, the Bank of Thailand has threatened to investigate some financial institutions with operations in Thailand for possible involvement in baht speculation.

The central bank's announcement comes amid the baht's continued rally against the US dollar. The local currency, up nearly 2% versus the greenback in 2018, is now the second-best performer in Asia this year after the Malaysian ringgit.

The central bank has found that some financial institutions' behaviour could indicate involvement in baht speculation through heavy transaction volume, said Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob, who added that such practices have been done in favour of customers who may be speculating in baht ...
Nothing different, IMHO, then BOT doing it's thing to strengthen the Baht to bolster importers of high end products

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parrot
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by parrot » July 13, 2018, 1:09 pm

JimboPSM.......if you're out there.......any comments about weakening of the Baht over the past 3 or so months?

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by choi choi » July 13, 2018, 3:44 pm

OH not another graph please! LOL

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JimboPSM
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by JimboPSM » July 13, 2018, 4:52 pm

parrot wrote:
July 13, 2018, 1:09 pm
JimboPSM.......if you're out there.......any comments about weakening of the Baht over the past 3 or so months?
I’m in the process of putting together a detailed response to a topic in the Open Forum “Emerging Asia hit by biggest exodus since 2008”, it covers why the THB has been weakening.

I’ve been on the road for four months this year and still am very much in catch up mode; however I can give a quick summary of what has been happening.

The backdrop is pretty simple - cash outflows from Thailand to the US.

These are the main reasons:

1. The Fed interest rate increase on 21st March resulted in a positive interest rate differential with the BoT for the first time since January 2008.

2. A sharp uptick in US Treasuries.


The above two reasons have resulted in:

a. Hot money outflows.

b. Carry trade money outflows.


3. The start of the unwinding of US Quantitative Easing (QE) - I believe this is having a big impact on the cash outflows; however as this is, to say the least, an extremely opaque area I can’t even give a ballpark figure for what it may be.

While we know that there were large cash inflows to Thailand as a result of QE, there is no research (that I have come across) that quantifies how much and in what form it arrived and, without knowing how much arrived, it is nigh on impossible to identify the QE outflows from the amorphous mass of all the other outflows.


.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism (and economic suicide)

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » July 26, 2018, 11:36 am

Since the start of 2014, the That Baht has mostly been above TB 32 to the USD.It had one very small dip below 32 in the mid-end of 2014 and another larger dip down to 31 in the first half or 2018. Aside from these two dips (one really) TB 32 to the USD would appear to the the floor for the Thai Baht. Lets hope so.

Anything prior to April 2015 is insignificant, as it would appear that the current Thai Government/Ruling Power works in favor of those expats transferring money into Thailand.

Now if the American Political scene can just stabilize somewhat and their November elections don't through a Wobbly, then we (Expats) might just see the Thai Baht return to a comfortable TB 34 to the USD, by the end of this year.One can only hope so.

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747man
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by 747man » July 26, 2018, 12:31 pm

Anything prior to April 2015 is insignificant, as it would appear that the current Thai Government/Ruling Power works in favor of those expats transferring money into Thailand...........

NOT With the GBP They DON'T....IMHO !!

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » July 27, 2018, 12:32 am

747man wrote:
July 26, 2018, 12:31 pm
Anything prior to April 2015 is insignificant, as it would appear that the current Thai Government/Ruling Power works in favor of those expats transferring money into Thailand...........

NOT With the GBP They DON'T....IMHO !!
Maybe but I am only interested in and referring to the USD to Thai Baht exchange rate. Couldn't give two hoots about the GBP exchange rate.

The UK has its other Own issues that have impacted on (over the past 3 years) and continue to drag down its its currency value., such as, the UK is still tied to the EU and all its BS regulations, the UK has had week Political Leadership for a number of years, the UK immigration Policy is totally F. k.d and now you are stuck with the legacy of BREXIT. Markets don't see any immediate future in the UK Economy and or trading its currency.

Personally I think you have the wrong people (T May & Co) dealing with the EU on BREXIT and it is showing up in you currency worth against other countries and not just in the exchange rate with the Baht. The GBP has weakened against most major currencies over the past 3 years, not just against the Baht.

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747man
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by 747man » July 27, 2018, 11:12 am

Couldn't give two hoots about the GBP exchange rate......Stuff You're US$ As well,I Only ever use it when I'm Going over the bridge....

pipoz4444
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » July 27, 2018, 5:41 pm

747man wrote:
July 27, 2018, 11:12 am
Couldn't give two hoots about the GBP exchange rate......Stuff You're US$ As well,I Only ever use it when I'm Going over the bridge....
Hi 747man

Despite what the US and other World Media try to portray, the US Economy is on a role, not quite on fire yet but will be soon, possibly by the end of this tear.

Company and Manufacturing sectors confidence is at a high, unemployment rates are low across all demographics & participation rates are up, labor shortages are starting to show up which indicates that wages should eventually rise (be it slowly), interest rates are slowly being increased by the FED (which is very important) and some people have more money in their pocket each week to spend for a variety of reasons. Not many economies have all their key economic indicators pointing in the right direction at the same time.

So the end or likely result is, that the Dollar Index will continue to rise from 94.8 back towards 100. I am not saying it will reach or go above 100, but the fact is that the higher the Dollar Index, the more likelihood that we living in Thailand will get more Thai Baht for each US Dollar we bring/sell.

At this time I would certainly bet on the US Dollar gaining strength over the next 6 -12 months, before I bet on any other Currency ding the same.

Whilst this may not effect all Expats in Thailand, it does impact on those being pad a US Pension or those trying to bring their US Dollar denomination into Thailand for purchases such as property and the like.

From a personal point, I would like a strong USD for the next 10 Months, so I need Trump/Republicans to win the US House and Senate in November to keep this US Dollar ball rolling. =D>

After May next year I don't give a Rats Arse \:D/


PS I can't swim, so I stay off Bridges

Cheers :lol:

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » December 6, 2018, 12:18 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
July 26, 2018, 11:36 am
Since the start of 2014, the That Baht has mostly been above TB 32 to the USD.It had one very small dip below 32 in the mid-end of 2014 and another larger dip down to 31 in the first half or 2018. Aside from these two dips (one really) TB 32 to the USD would appear to the the floor for the Thai Baht. Lets hope so.

Anything prior to April 2015 is insignificant, as it would appear that the current Thai Government/Ruling Power works in favor of those expats transferring money into Thailand.

Now if the American Political scene can just stabilize somewhat and their November elections don't through a Wobbly, then we (Expats) might just see the Thai Baht return to a comfortable TB 34 to the USD, by the end of this year.One can only hope so.

pipoz4444
Well, I think it is going to fall short of my hopes [-o<

Buy the looks of it, that Baht is stuck in a rut, in the 32's, somewhere between 32.50 and 32.90 to the US Dollar.

With all that as happened in the last six months in the US and the recent House elections going to the Dem's, I fear that it will pretty much stay just under 33.00, for a while, until the next..................... :-k


The following was a forecast back in September 2018, which if half correct (i.e Forecast of Thailand’s economic growth this year to 4.6 per cent), will tend to hold the Thai Baht down under that 33.00 ,mark until the next ............... :-k

Extract THE UNIVERSITY of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has raised its forecast of Thailand’s economic growth this year to 4.6 per cent from an earlier estimate of 4.5 per cent after improved export, tourism and crop prices. It also expects the Bt40-billion spending in the 2019 general elections to spur the economy.

Thanavath Phonvichai, director of UTCC’s Centre for Business and Economic Forecasting, said export and tourism sectors have continued to expand from early this year thanks to a boost in global economy and increase in the prices of several crops, particularly paddy rice, sugar cane and corn. Private investment is also showing signs of recovery and public spending has increased, he said. UTCC reckons Thai exports will grow by 8.7 per cent and imports will rise by 12.6 per cent. The country’s current account is expected to have a surplus of US$34.6 billion (Bt1.1 trillion). Headline inflation is predicted at 1.2 per cent, while the currency is expected to hover at 31.50 to 33.50 per US dollar.

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