Where is the Bottom for investments?

[bumper]

I heard a hedge fund investor on Bloomberg say today it's 7200 I think he was talking about the Nasdec.

It has occured to me that when that happens might be few dollars out there to be made.

So is that the number?

What are the investments are going to gain steadily over a five year period from that point?

This guy didn't believe we had hit bottom yet and that I do agree with.

If you can figure that one out pretty close you camn put some change in your pocket.

Stock prices have went down down down for a sometime now. They will go back up always do.

The other talk is the states will not be the finacial giant b that will be Asia. Think thats true?

Even a cheap charlie like me would take a bit of risk on, under the right circumstances and we may be a close to that then we have seen in the last ten years.

[RLTrader]

NASDAQ is now at around 1750 so I think he was talking about the DOW which is around 9200. Couple of months ago my low for the DOW was 9200 - 9400. Now its 6200 - 6400. Most people I talk with are down 20% or much more!

[bumper]

Thanks for the clarification, so your looking for 6200 range?

[RLTrader]

Thanks for the clarification, so your looking for 6200 range?

Yes and No. Hard to tell how much more ---- is going to hit the fan, but its far from over. Would not be looking to invest now, except if you have some money to lose, maybe some bargins in China.

[bumper]

Thanks no, not now two years from now roughly and looking at a five year return. Am I close?

[RLTrader]

Thanks no, not now two years from now roughly and looking at a five year return. Am I close?

Hard to say, kinda looks like the end of the world. But anyways, five years is too short. If anyone needs the money investing, in five years, then they should stay in cash.

Starting to look like countries are starting to fail. (Iceland) Then what.

I ran across this link at another site, might be worth a listen (radio), its 1 hour long and think the link is still good.

http://www.thisamericanlife.org

[rickfarang]

I have always heard and indeed believe, that trying to time the bottom of a market is very dangerous. And today, the bottom can still be a long way down.

It would be much safer to buy when it finally starts to climb back up. Much safer.

Same old story: risk vs return.

[WBU ALUM]

I recommend Ray Lucia's book Buckets of Money.

Lays out the whole plan re: diversification and allocation. Bottoms don't matter. Tops don't matter. If the money is allocated evenly and properly, you continue to invest and allocate while it's going up and going down.

I also recommend Bob Brinker's MarketTimer.

Neither have any get-rich-quick schemes. It is solid investing advice. With either one, the guess work is taken out of it. You continue to invest into your plan and watch the markets.

As to the current market situation, I think negative emotion, spurred by the media, is driving half of this.

[WBU ALUM]

Thanks no, not now two years from now roughly and looking at a five year return. Am I close?

Hard to say, kinda looks like the end of the world. But anyways, five years is too short. If anyone needs the money investing, in five years, then they should stay in cash.

Starting to look like countries are starting to fail. (Iceland) Then what.

I ran across this link at another site, might be worth a listen (radio), its 1 hour long and think the link is still good.

http://www.thisamericanlife.org

That link is connected to NPR. Be careful. Never use that as a primary source.

[bumper]

Let me try to explian the goal adn tht might help. It is to supplement my wifes income when I die. I used five years from the bottom. Assuming that we get through the recession in three years. That would be put the time frame eight years from now.

My thouhgts are as follows.

Va will supply $525.00 a month to a widow with no other income. She will qaulify for that.

Should be debt free in the three years including the house. ( only two bills house and car)

Next step one mill Baht in the bank.

I would not even consider investing until those things are done so a start time of more like four years, depending on several factors I have no control over such as the baht exchange rate. Could be sooner, to many unknowns at the moment to see that clearly.

So the idea is to supply the wife with money down line.

I realize that life insurance could do the same thing got one mill baht policy now. But insurance today can be a bit iffy as well.

Cash yes that is good to

The one thing about my wife when a baht leaves here hand it's blank all the writing has been worn off.

Thanks for the info on the books, I'll try to find them.

Just thougth I would kick this around and look at something besides the doom and gloom, man we have enough of that these days.