, I dont suppose you do a weekly email update by any chance do you?? 
The dollar/pound and the thai stock exchange
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BangkokButcher
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JimboPSM
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BKB, as the currency markets work in a real time environment any e-mail update would probably be out of date before it could be read, however if there is something noteworthy (and if I notice it) I will try and post something relevant.
As I said in my previous posts, in the last two working days there have been movements of over 1% within the space of two hours, it is almost impossible to pick up such movements until after the event.
There are many sites, BBC News, Yahoo Finance etc which give almost up to date information on an intra-day basis - although normally it is delayed by 15 or 20 minutes.
I am thinking of trying to copy some of my historical charts and put them on the site to help members understand just how much and how often rates change, but I'm struggling to get clarity in copying them in a reasonable file size.
I must say again that I do not know whether rates will increase or decrease tomorrow, but I do have views based on my understanding and interpretation of economic information (which may well be wrong) as to where rates may be in a year or two relative to today, but it is up to each person to decide whether they agree or disagree with my conclusions.
Finally, remember the words of GBS - If all economists were laid end to end they would not reach a conclusion
As I said in my previous posts, in the last two working days there have been movements of over 1% within the space of two hours, it is almost impossible to pick up such movements until after the event.
There are many sites, BBC News, Yahoo Finance etc which give almost up to date information on an intra-day basis - although normally it is delayed by 15 or 20 minutes.
I am thinking of trying to copy some of my historical charts and put them on the site to help members understand just how much and how often rates change, but I'm struggling to get clarity in copying them in a reasonable file size.
I must say again that I do not know whether rates will increase or decrease tomorrow, but I do have views based on my understanding and interpretation of economic information (which may well be wrong) as to where rates may be in a year or two relative to today, but it is up to each person to decide whether they agree or disagree with my conclusions.
Finally, remember the words of GBS - If all economists were laid end to end they would not reach a conclusion
Charts
You're not kidding, Jimbo! The amount of information and charts out there on currencies and so forth are boggling. However, I found this particular weekly-updated Asian chart a little curious because it did include Thailand, although I didn't exactly immerse myself into it to understand just what the point index exactly signified when you clicked on 'Thailand' in the left column:
http://asiachart.com/
http://asiachart.com/
Garnet & Jack
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JimboPSM
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Yet another example of how quickly things can change:
The USD fell about 1% against GBP in space of less than 30 minutes trading this afternoon after the US May jobs growth figures were released which were, at 75,000, half of the number that had been anticipated, at the same time the March and April numbers were also revised down. This lowered market expectations that the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates this month.
This was also reflected in GBP / THB exchange rate with THB also falling about 1% (or GBP rising ).
There was a barely noticeable fall in the USD / THB exchange rate as the expectation is still that Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand will move its interest rates proportionately to the Fed.
This last week has been a real rollercoaster on the Forex markets, three of the last five trading days have contained movements in excess of 1%; this level of volatility is indicative of some very nervous currency traders.
Some currency movements for May which give food for thought:
The USD fell about 1% against GBP in space of less than 30 minutes trading this afternoon after the US May jobs growth figures were released which were, at 75,000, half of the number that had been anticipated, at the same time the March and April numbers were also revised down. This lowered market expectations that the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates this month.
This was also reflected in GBP / THB exchange rate with THB also falling about 1% (or GBP rising ).
There was a barely noticeable fall in the USD / THB exchange rate as the expectation is still that Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand will move its interest rates proportionately to the Fed.
This last week has been a real rollercoaster on the Forex markets, three of the last five trading days have contained movements in excess of 1%; this level of volatility is indicative of some very nervous currency traders.
Some currency movements for May which give food for thought:
- GBP rose 5.8% against USD
GBP rose 5.8% against THB
EUR rose 4.0% against USD
EUR rose 4.1% against THB
AUD rose 3.6% against USD
AUD rose 3.7% against THB
USD rose 0.1% against THB
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JimboPSM
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This is an article that appeared in the Nation which may help members understand some of the factors affecting the operation of monetary policy and its impact on exchange rates.
WINNING THROUGH
BOT chief feeling political heat
Pridiyathorn adept at economic policy but faces new challenges in sixth year
Bank of Thailand Governor MR Pridiyathorn Devakula is entering his sixth year in the country's monetary policy hotseat. Although he has proved his ability to manage policy efficiently, his greatest challenge is to keep the country fiscally stable amid growing pressures from politicians, interest-rate hikes and the rising oil price.
He is now under both economic and political pressure, as the government tries to interfere in the central bank's decision to hike or maintain interest rates.
While central bank senior officials insist their first priority is to maintain stability, caretaker Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya has repeatedly said further interest rate hikes could reduce the country's declining investment levels.
Pridiyathorn was widely known to have enjoyed a close relationship with caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's group of economic advisers before he came to the office.
Some observers have alleged those close relations were a reason behind Pridiyathorn's appointment to the post.
However, his performance over the past five years has shown his independence from political intervention and his actions have been driven by the demands of the Kingdom rather than any parliamentary party.
His outstanding success was the stabilisation of the baht, which was a familiar concern as he had worked at Kasikornbank and the Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM). Pridiyathorn kept the baht stabile to the benefit of exporters, importers and debtors amid recent fluctuations in global currencies.
In the first few years after he took the position, Pridiyathorn's main task was to accumulate foreign reserves, which are now at their highest point in the country's history.
This allowed the central bank to pay off early the country's crisis bail-out debts under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
This early redemption can help reduce pressure if the country's current account begins to run a deficit in the next few years, as has been predicted.
In addition, Pridiyathorn took aggressive steps to rein in private consumption by launching stringent measures for credit card and personal loan services despite strong complaints from financial institutions and despite the government's consumption-oriented economic policies.
His measures have paid off. Once fast-growing consumer loans are under control, which has diluted anxiety over the recurrence of non-performing loans and overly indebted households.
Pridiyathorn's role with interest rates during his first years as governor went unrecognised because the monetary policy tool at that time did not function well due to the massive surplus of liquidity and the likelihood of deflation.
His role was questioned again when the BOT failed to raise the policy rate in the beginning of 2005 as inflation crept up. The BOT's Monetary Policy Committee was accused by some quarters of concentrating too much on economic growth rather than inflation, which is its key priority.
But the inflation rate last year came in under expectations despite negative factors such as bird flu, drought and rising oil prices.
Pridiyathorn's leadership was shaken when the central bank accused the ex-president of Krung Thai Bank, Viroj Nualkhair, who had close ties with the government, of imprudent loan approvals, which resulted in an increase of Bt46-billion in non-performing loans at the bank.
His conflict with the group sparked speculation among politicians that he would be sacked. Thaksin played down the conflict and left Pridiyathorn alone to do his duty.
Despite surviving numerous attempts of government intervention, Pridiyathorn's path in the sixth year seems to be less rosy than it should be.
His task now appears to be tremendously challenging. He must fight the baht's volatility due to an uncertainty over capital movements and high inflationary pressures.
Strengthening the banking system to match international standards remains on his list of tasks to complete.
The central bank now is in a dilemma over whether it will further increase its 14-day repurchase rate at its June 7 meeting to tame inflationary pressures or chose to leave it alone to stimulate the country's economy as the politicians are demanding.
Recently, Pridiyathorn told reporters it was the toughest decision facing the Monetary Policy Committee.
The meeting outcome will give an indication of whether he can follow his role model Puey Ungphakorn, the former BOT governor.
Anoma Srisukkasem, The Nation[/b]
WINNING THROUGH
BOT chief feeling political heat
Pridiyathorn adept at economic policy but faces new challenges in sixth year
Bank of Thailand Governor MR Pridiyathorn Devakula is entering his sixth year in the country's monetary policy hotseat. Although he has proved his ability to manage policy efficiently, his greatest challenge is to keep the country fiscally stable amid growing pressures from politicians, interest-rate hikes and the rising oil price.
He is now under both economic and political pressure, as the government tries to interfere in the central bank's decision to hike or maintain interest rates.
While central bank senior officials insist their first priority is to maintain stability, caretaker Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya has repeatedly said further interest rate hikes could reduce the country's declining investment levels.
Pridiyathorn was widely known to have enjoyed a close relationship with caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's group of economic advisers before he came to the office.
Some observers have alleged those close relations were a reason behind Pridiyathorn's appointment to the post.
However, his performance over the past five years has shown his independence from political intervention and his actions have been driven by the demands of the Kingdom rather than any parliamentary party.
His outstanding success was the stabilisation of the baht, which was a familiar concern as he had worked at Kasikornbank and the Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM). Pridiyathorn kept the baht stabile to the benefit of exporters, importers and debtors amid recent fluctuations in global currencies.
In the first few years after he took the position, Pridiyathorn's main task was to accumulate foreign reserves, which are now at their highest point in the country's history.
This allowed the central bank to pay off early the country's crisis bail-out debts under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
This early redemption can help reduce pressure if the country's current account begins to run a deficit in the next few years, as has been predicted.
In addition, Pridiyathorn took aggressive steps to rein in private consumption by launching stringent measures for credit card and personal loan services despite strong complaints from financial institutions and despite the government's consumption-oriented economic policies.
His measures have paid off. Once fast-growing consumer loans are under control, which has diluted anxiety over the recurrence of non-performing loans and overly indebted households.
Pridiyathorn's role with interest rates during his first years as governor went unrecognised because the monetary policy tool at that time did not function well due to the massive surplus of liquidity and the likelihood of deflation.
His role was questioned again when the BOT failed to raise the policy rate in the beginning of 2005 as inflation crept up. The BOT's Monetary Policy Committee was accused by some quarters of concentrating too much on economic growth rather than inflation, which is its key priority.
But the inflation rate last year came in under expectations despite negative factors such as bird flu, drought and rising oil prices.
Pridiyathorn's leadership was shaken when the central bank accused the ex-president of Krung Thai Bank, Viroj Nualkhair, who had close ties with the government, of imprudent loan approvals, which resulted in an increase of Bt46-billion in non-performing loans at the bank.
His conflict with the group sparked speculation among politicians that he would be sacked. Thaksin played down the conflict and left Pridiyathorn alone to do his duty.
Despite surviving numerous attempts of government intervention, Pridiyathorn's path in the sixth year seems to be less rosy than it should be.
His task now appears to be tremendously challenging. He must fight the baht's volatility due to an uncertainty over capital movements and high inflationary pressures.
Strengthening the banking system to match international standards remains on his list of tasks to complete.
The central bank now is in a dilemma over whether it will further increase its 14-day repurchase rate at its June 7 meeting to tame inflationary pressures or chose to leave it alone to stimulate the country's economy as the politicians are demanding.
Recently, Pridiyathorn told reporters it was the toughest decision facing the Monetary Policy Committee.
The meeting outcome will give an indication of whether he can follow his role model Puey Ungphakorn, the former BOT governor.
Anoma Srisukkasem, The Nation[/b]
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JimboPSM
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From The Nation:
OUTLOOK FOR MARKETS
SET to stay in doldrums, but capital could flow in if no Fed rate hike:
Experts warned yesterday that the Thai stock and money markets were likely to be volatile again in the second half of the year if the value of the US dollar depreciated further. They said the SET Index was likely to remain sluggish until the fourth quarter.
An economist, an analyst and a fund manager warned that there were still no signs of foreign capital inflow, while there are higher risks from domestic political and economic factors. However, capital may start flowing in if the US Federal Reserve signals that it will not hike its policy rate further.
At a seminar entitled "Catch up with Foreign Capital Inflow... Is it Really Shunning Thai Stock?" held by Money and Wealth Magazine, speakers included Usara Wilaipich, an economist from Standard Chartered Bank (Thai), Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, vice president of Tisco Securities, and Maris Tarab, managing director of ING Funds Asset Management (Thailand).
Usara said that in the past month, foreign investors had sold Thai stocks worth as much as Bt37 billion. However, their capital is still "parked" in non-resident accounts in Thailand, in the money market, or in short-term government bonds. The "money-parking" practice shows that there will be a chance for foreign investors to take profits from local and Asian currencies again in the second half, particularly from the yen and the baht
She said the foreign exchange market would be more volatile in the second half than it was in the first because the US dollar is likely to depreciate significantly against other currencies. The US currency will reach a peak, while other currencies will become even stronger.
Usara warned that foreign investors were likely to sell Thai stocks in the second half because commodity prices will remain low and the value of the US dollar will depreciate. This is likely to push the value of the yen up to between 105 and 108 per dollar, while the US economy slows down.
She said if the US Federal Reserve signals that it will not raise its policy rate again, it would be a crucial factor indicating that there will be another round of capital inflow into low-risk assets or bonds.
The National Economic and Social Development Board yesterday announced that gross domestic product grew by 6 per cent in the first quarter, reflecting a slowdown from the fourth quarter last year. It is likely to be the highest quarterly growth figure this year.
Usara predicted GDP growth of 4.1 per cent for the whole year. She believes the Bank of Thailand will raise its policy rate tomorrow by 0.25 percentage points to 5 per cent.
Paiboon said foreign investors would shift back to the Thai market again if they see a clear sign that the US central bank will not raise its policy rate further. However, he believes there will be no such "clear sign" in the next three months. Therefore, the Thai stock market is likely to remain sluggish in the third quarter.
"It will be difficult for the Thai stock market to recover in the next three months. According to talks with foreign investors, they have less interest in investing. They can leave the Thai market at any time," he said.
Maris said local funds had bought Thai stocks continually, while foreign investors have sold. This is because of new money from mutual funds, and long-term funds.
Siriporn Chanjindamanee - The Nation
OUTLOOK FOR MARKETS
SET to stay in doldrums, but capital could flow in if no Fed rate hike:
Experts warned yesterday that the Thai stock and money markets were likely to be volatile again in the second half of the year if the value of the US dollar depreciated further. They said the SET Index was likely to remain sluggish until the fourth quarter.
An economist, an analyst and a fund manager warned that there were still no signs of foreign capital inflow, while there are higher risks from domestic political and economic factors. However, capital may start flowing in if the US Federal Reserve signals that it will not hike its policy rate further.
At a seminar entitled "Catch up with Foreign Capital Inflow... Is it Really Shunning Thai Stock?" held by Money and Wealth Magazine, speakers included Usara Wilaipich, an economist from Standard Chartered Bank (Thai), Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, vice president of Tisco Securities, and Maris Tarab, managing director of ING Funds Asset Management (Thailand).
Usara said that in the past month, foreign investors had sold Thai stocks worth as much as Bt37 billion. However, their capital is still "parked" in non-resident accounts in Thailand, in the money market, or in short-term government bonds. The "money-parking" practice shows that there will be a chance for foreign investors to take profits from local and Asian currencies again in the second half, particularly from the yen and the baht
She said the foreign exchange market would be more volatile in the second half than it was in the first because the US dollar is likely to depreciate significantly against other currencies. The US currency will reach a peak, while other currencies will become even stronger.
Usara warned that foreign investors were likely to sell Thai stocks in the second half because commodity prices will remain low and the value of the US dollar will depreciate. This is likely to push the value of the yen up to between 105 and 108 per dollar, while the US economy slows down.
She said if the US Federal Reserve signals that it will not raise its policy rate again, it would be a crucial factor indicating that there will be another round of capital inflow into low-risk assets or bonds.
The National Economic and Social Development Board yesterday announced that gross domestic product grew by 6 per cent in the first quarter, reflecting a slowdown from the fourth quarter last year. It is likely to be the highest quarterly growth figure this year.
Usara predicted GDP growth of 4.1 per cent for the whole year. She believes the Bank of Thailand will raise its policy rate tomorrow by 0.25 percentage points to 5 per cent.
Paiboon said foreign investors would shift back to the Thai market again if they see a clear sign that the US central bank will not raise its policy rate further. However, he believes there will be no such "clear sign" in the next three months. Therefore, the Thai stock market is likely to remain sluggish in the third quarter.
"It will be difficult for the Thai stock market to recover in the next three months. According to talks with foreign investors, they have less interest in investing. They can leave the Thai market at any time," he said.
Maris said local funds had bought Thai stocks continually, while foreign investors have sold. This is because of new money from mutual funds, and long-term funds.
Siriporn Chanjindamanee - The Nation
jimbo why was the sell off higher wedneday
Jimbo i see that the markets have tumbled globally these last few days,that they stabalised somewhat wednesday. Yesterday though i noted that foreign investers sold more of their stock than any other day recentlyclose to 4000 million bht, even though interest rates were raised so they could be more competitive for investers....In your opinion why was this.Also where other markets stopped falling yesterday thailand s.e.t still fell and also today its dtill dropping close to 3% in the last two seesions if it stays as it does midday today..........Also again am i right when i say the stock exchange closes for lunch,because i never see quotes between 1pm and 2pm
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JimboPSM
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TIMONE, I have checked up on operating hours of SET.
Trading on the SET is conducted on all bank business days, normally from Monday through Friday.
Each day there are two trading sessions: morning and afternoon.
You can find further information in the English language section of their website:
Trading on the SET is conducted on all bank business days, normally from Monday through Friday.
Each day there are two trading sessions: morning and afternoon.
- Morning Trading - 10.00 to 12.30
Intermission - 12.30 to 14.00
Afternoon Trading - 14.30 to 16.30
You can find further information in the English language section of their website:
Cheers for ur reply.i see from this post and ur others,there is a whole plethora of variables and timeings that affect markets and currencies. I also can see why so many people get sucked in to tradeing on the markets thinking they have insight and on to a winner,only for a varible to come in and make an investment plummet..I hope you keep us informed when you think you have info that is interesting and may affect expats here..thanks jimbo.........................................
Aussie boy did you get involved with the welsh national stadium as well?that was a loser for the construction company as well,being built on a fixed price...The wembly fiasco has generated a lot of publicity for the national stadium and a lot of income as well,for being a wembly substitute for six years.....
Aussie boy did you get involved with the welsh national stadium as well?that was a loser for the construction company as well,being built on a fixed price...The wembly fiasco has generated a lot of publicity for the national stadium and a lot of income as well,for being a wembly substitute for six years.....
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JimboPSM
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A good article by Peter Morici on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the problems of the US Economy (he has a bit more street cred than I do in this area).
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 1Dj01.html
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the US International Trade Commission. He serves on the Bloomberg and Reuters macroeconomic forecasting panels.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 1Dj01.html
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the US International Trade Commission. He serves on the Bloomberg and Reuters macroeconomic forecasting panels.
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JimboPSM
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A sad example today of how volatile the Forex markets and what can move them.
David Walton, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), has died after a short illness.
Mr Walton was known as one of the key "hawks" on the MPC, who were pushing for higher interest rates because they feared that inflationary pressures were growing in the world economy. He was the only member of the MPC to have voted for an increased interest rate at the last two MPC meetings.
Almost wholly due to this news GBP has fallen nearly one percent today against USD & THB.
David Walton, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), has died after a short illness.
Mr Walton was known as one of the key "hawks" on the MPC, who were pushing for higher interest rates because they feared that inflationary pressures were growing in the world economy. He was the only member of the MPC to have voted for an increased interest rate at the last two MPC meetings.
Almost wholly due to this news GBP has fallen nearly one percent today against USD & THB.
Hi jimbo thanks for the updates..How many members are there on the mpc?? Are they independant of goverment interference when setting rates??. I also noticed on friday that foreign investors for the first time in more than a month were not net sellers on the s.e.t..Is this seen as a bottoming out of this current bear session?? Or is the view still one of volility in the markets.......I have noted your remarks about the volility of the forex in the last month and how it drastically changes with rumour,deaths,key resignations,rate changes and other things which i will probably see come to light in the near future.
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JimboPSM
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TIMONE, constitution of MPC of BoE is for 9 members:
More information available at: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary ... erview.htm
I
- Governor of the BoE
2 Deputy Governors of the BoE
The Bank's Chief Economist
The Executive Director for Markets
Plus 4 external members appointed directly by the Chancellor
More information available at: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary ... erview.htm
I