Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by jingjai » December 1, 2015, 3:05 pm

Good insightful article:

"Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging"
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/30/world ... .html?_r=0



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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by bumper » December 1, 2015, 3:25 pm

Interesting read But, the reality Thailand is doing about the same as other countries in this region. Now here is the kicker so much is driven by emotion in the economy and the market. Attitudes such as this do effect society.

I still don't see where the fundamentals are to support any Market in the world at the moment. Next to free money is driving things. What is being built, manufactured, services delivered and sold That is what I mean by fundamentals.

Most countries would kill for China's current GDP. But it less then it was so that means a bad economy. In reality probably not. But, it is enough to psyche investors out so it becomes self fulfilling

We saw a huge increase in the minimum wage. But, if people don't understand the nature of inflation they can over spend of what their real buying power is. Leading to bad loans What looked like such a huge increase turned out to be very little when inflation caught up. You would think with the cost of fuel being lower that prices would be cheaper. But, that doesn't seem to be the case.

I would think we will have a wonderful year next year or another recession. With the timing I'm betting on another recession. Maybe a better word a realistic correction. No matter what you call it doesn't put rice on the table.

I do have personal knowledge of the credit problems effecting a Thai we know.

It is very real.

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by FrazeeDK » December 1, 2015, 7:18 pm

the credit issues throughout the country are huge.. Easy money/easy credit is advertised endlessly on TV and aimed at a relatively unsophisticated audience that will go in over their head signing over land titles as collateral.. Just the other day a news story in the Bangkok Post outlined the massive credit debt of teachers throughout the Kingdom who've borrowed on their job security with many doing it right before they retire to receive a paltry pension that will not allow them to pay their debts and live too..
Dave

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by randerson79 » December 2, 2015, 8:55 pm

Some people didn't get to read the article.

http://news.yahoo.com/blank-spaces-repl ... 54313.html

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by Jing Jing » December 3, 2015, 10:27 am

International New York Times said its printer in Thailand removed a piece on the moribund state of the Kingdom's economy in yesterday's edition, forcing the edition to carry blank spaces, including on the cover.

NYTimes soon to join the DailyMail in the penalty box.

Like most "news" articles no statistics ( oh, there is one crime stat. Source unk) just a bunch of quotes strung with personal opinion.

Thailand's main trading partners' economies are all in a slump. Maybe with Russia imposing trade restrictions on Turkey there is a small window of opportunity to increase trade and tourism. (Oh but Thailand would have to allow topless bathing!)

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by bumper » December 3, 2015, 5:12 pm

Just read an article where Thailand is shelving it's plans for a railway with China. That's not going to help
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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by noosard » December 3, 2015, 5:37 pm

Bumper this was discussed yesterday on another thread
Seems everyday there is or isn't going to be
Maybe a slow media day so write some garbage to be rewritten tomorrow denying it

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by jai yen yen » December 3, 2015, 10:23 pm

Things are very hard for the average Thai now, in my Wifes village a 56 year old man killed himself because he could not make ends meet anymore.He was a rubber farmer and sadly left his family with the debts and problems. My mother in law who is a very hard working proud Thai lady is also struggling and stated the other day she hates THailand now, pretty strong words. I also just read an article saying the elite are doing quite well and not really affected as the high end restaurants and malls in Bangkok are busy. Just the way they want it I think. All for the rich and nothing for the poor. It is a good thing the military took over from the evil democratic government and saved Thailand.

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by jingjai » December 8, 2015, 1:54 pm

The official word from Thailand's Ambassador to the U.S.
Thailand’s Economy: The Ambassador’s View
DEC. 7, 2015
To the Editor:

“Thai Economy Is Sagging, and So Are Thai Spirits” (Memo From Thailand, Nov. 30) did not include facts that contradict this critical portrayal of Thailand’s economy.

The fundamentals of the Thai economy are still strong. The Fitch Ratings last month said the Thai economy “has shown resilience.” The country’s foreign reserves are $157 billion, while short-term foreign debt is only $55 billion and the public debt to gross domestic product ratio is 43 percent — much lower than that of the United States, Britain and Japan. Inflation is negligible and the unemployment rate is 0.9 percent — much lower than the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development average.

The Thai economy is fast recovering with a steady growth trajectory despite a weak global environment. Consumer and industrial confidence indexes are picking up, thanks to the stimulus measures by the government. The growth rate for the third quarter this year is 2.9 percent, a significant improvement from 0.9 percent in the third quarter of 2014. Various international and domestic agencies have forecast 3 to 4 percent growth in 2016.

Major reforms are underway to rebalance the Thai economy to make it more competitive as the country moves toward more sustainable and inclusive growth. The American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand has voiced support for these reforms and maintained its confidence in Thailand as an attractive investment destination.

PISAN MANAWAPAT
Ambassador of Thailand
Washington
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/07/opini ... .html?_r=0

Guess we can all sleep easier tonight...

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by jai yen yen » December 9, 2015, 3:19 am

If you ask a politician they will tell you what they want you to believe, if you ask the people you will get a realistic answer.

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by bumper » December 9, 2015, 12:13 pm

Jia Yen seems to have worked out that way. :D

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... pens-lower
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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by bumper » December 9, 2015, 12:25 pm

A big hit today

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... pens-lower

I had to pay 36.14 for dollars today at Bangkok Bank. Hope this holds till the 1st or gets better.
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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by Twixies » December 12, 2015, 2:31 pm

Long time since i comment here. but is this bad , cause nobody in thainews write about it, normally the write all about the stock marked
Thai stocks fell, with the benchmark equity index entering a bear market, as concern over the health of the nation’s economy and the prospect of higher U.S. borrowing costs spurred foreign selling.

The SET Index dropped 1.3 percent to 1,280.92 at the close in Bangkok, taking losses from its Feb. 13 high to 21 percent. International investors have pulled $3.6 billion so far in 2015, the most among eight Asian markets tracked by Bloomberg, following outflows of more than $7.3 billion in the previous two years.

Thailand’s large domestic investors such as the Social Security Office and the Government Pension Fund have been boosting their overseas exposure amid tepid returns from the nation’s equities. Futures indicate a 78 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark policy rates this month from near zero in a move that could affect money flows into emerging markets.

PTT Pcl, the nation’s largest energy company that’s been battered by crude oil’s drop to six-year lows, declined 5.2 percent to a five-year low. Advanced Info Service Pcl slid 3.8 percent and True Corp. Pcl retreated 5.5 percent, pacing losses for telecommunication shares. The two companies have slumped over the past month on concern they overpaid in a government auction for airwaves needed to provide fourth-generation mobile services.

Most Thai economic indicators have weakened this year as exports shrink and the government struggles to spur local demand, leaving tourism and state spending to drive the economy. The Bank of Thailand in November kept its key interest rate unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as it waits to assess whether government stimulus spending will succeed in boosting weak local demand.

The SET Index trades at 12.5 times its projected 12-month earnings, compared with a multiple of 10.8 for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... s-pull-out

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by Twixies » December 13, 2015, 2:32 pm

Thailand’s Military Junta is Clueless about Economic Policy

Prayuth’s government is failing to reverse the country’s economic decline.
By Anthony Kleven
September 25, 2015

Thailand’s ruling military junta is proving to be as clueless about economic policy as it is disdainful for the rights of civil society.

In May 2014, General Prayut Chan-o-cha seized power from the democratically elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra, promising to bring Thailand back to prosperity. Yet he and the ruling junta have shown themselves to be completely outmatched by the challenge to reverse Thailand’s economic decline. Instead, Thailand’s economic situation has suffered further declines, a nosedive similar to the battering administered to civil liberties at the hands of the military government.

Since taking power in May 2014, both rural incomes and exports have fallen sharply, and Prayut’s junta has consistently delayed a necessary devaluation of the Thai baht in order to counterbalance the yuan’s slide. The country lost in 2014 between US$8.5 billion and $12.8 billion in missed GDP growth, FDI flows tumbled by 38.7% in the first 6 months of 2015, exports contracted by almost 5% while household debt reached a ten-year high. And since the politics of fear are timeless, Prayut has been looking for scapegoats to distract Thais from the worsening reality of their daily lives.

In early September, overthrown Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was hauled in front of the country’s Supreme Court to answer for the alleged corruption surrounding her rice-buying scheme. The controversial program paid rural Thai farmers above-market rates for their rice and left the government burdened with millions of tons of unsellable produce. Essentially a way to curry favor and empower Thailand’s rural masses, the program was beset with allegations of corruption, fraud and embezzlement. Now Yingluck is being called to pay tens of billions of baht out of pocket to cover the supposed losses from the program.

While the junta might try to portray the trial as part of a concentrated effort to purge corruption and government excess, the campaign against Shinawatra’s economic programs (which, from the perspective of Thai farmers, were largely successful) is more a matter of drawing attention away from the failures of Prayut’s regime by rehashing the allegations of corruption and misappropriation of funds levied against the deposed government.

While the “make them pay” narrative might play well for a while, in the long run it cannot succeed in distracting ordinary Thais from the fact that things are getting worse, not better, under Prayut’s military government.

Prayut’s solution to the economic malaise allegedly caused by Yingluck appears to be a mere carbon-copy of the former government’s own polices, with a healthy dose of while elephant infrastructure projects and stimulus packages added into the mix. The charade of change is underlined by Prayut’s decision to appoint Somkid Jatusripitak, former deputy prime minister and commerce minister under the deposed government of Thaksin Shinawatra, to take charge of the government’s economic policies.

Somkid is already reverting to what he knows best: so-called “Thaksinomics,” an economic program named after former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and condemned by Prayut and other members of the junta. In essence, Thaksinomics is a progressive policy used to win over the rural population of Thailand by pumping money into rural development and giving handouts. But by all accounts, Thailand’s economy growth is a function of a weak baht to power exports and the disposable income of the rural population to drive consumption up – a fact well understood by Thaksin. Prayut, on the other hand, in a bid to weaken the traditional power base of the Shinawatras has left the farmers living in the country’s south out to dry.

Borrowing a page from Beijing, the junta launched upon ‘taking’ office in 2014 a $75 billion program of building road and railway projects. Despite looking impressive on paper, does not address the key problems of the Thai economy. Somkid immediately reversed course and launched two stimulus programs, one providing low interest financing to SMEs (worth some $5.8 billion), on top of a $4 billion one targeting low income individuals by offering interest-free loans, investing in public facilities and subsidizing rural projects.

Despite the junta’s widespread demonization of the Shinawatras, Thailand’s economic realities and Prayut’s lack of fresh ideas – other than excoriating his predecessors – have sent the country’s GDP tumbling down. It is laughable that the same individuals he discredited are now put in charge of reversing the economic uncertainties caused, in good part, by the coup. However, there is a method to Prayut’s apparent madness. Appointing Somkid as head of economic policy makes a “retrograde maneuver” (to use an old euphemism for retreat) much easier: if Somkid’s policies fail, Prayut can turn around and haul him before the courts (military or otherwise) and hang the blame for economic distress on an erstwhile Shinawatra loyalist.

There are precedents for this kind of political retribution. Recalcitrant MPs critical of the blundering junta are being hauled to remote military bases for “attitude adjustment” sessions, while “civil society” as it is conventionally understood has all but ceased to function. Laws against defamation, public assembly, indeed, criticizing the government in any way, have proliferated under the military government.

Meanwhile, in mid-September 2015, Prayut pushed back the date of the much-promised democratic elections for the fourth time, after a draft constitution was rejected by the military council. The junta outlined a 6-4-6-4 tennis-like roadmap to democracy, under which it extends its rule to at least 2017. The postponement signals that Prayut is not serious (yet) about returning Thailand to democracy, and remains convinced that he and his clique could somehow rescue the country from the supposed excesses of democracy under Yingluck Shinawatra.

Prayut’s government seems heedless to the dangers of economic populism and civil authoritarianism. Until Prayut accepts a democratic transition, Thailand’s economy will continue to falter, driving away much-needed tourism and foreign investment, and the junta will fast run out of enemies to blame for their own failings. It’s high time for Prayut and his clique to confess they know nothing about government or economics and to assent to the long-awaited and much-delayed democratic transition.

Anthony Kleven is an economic risk consultant based in Singapore. The views expressed here are his own.

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/thailand ... ic-policy/

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by bumper » December 20, 2015, 11:31 am

Looks like they settled everything and will be moving ahead with the train project any connection to the Pot Ashe mining?

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general ... t-launched
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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by Jing Jing » December 20, 2015, 2:49 pm

"They promised no turning back on the project although negotiators of the two countries remain apart on several issues including loan conditions offered by Beijing. ...Beijing wants to charge 2.5% interest while Thailand wants a rate no higher than 2%."

Is this the best use of Thailands money? The global economy is shrinking and Thailands econmy is facing challenges which can only worsen. Rail projects are natorious boondoggles.

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by bignote1 » December 20, 2015, 5:55 pm

I think Thailand tries to solve its economic problems by spending too much time on the minutia.
I have at least one visit to Singapore and Hong Kong every year and am always impressed when I go to a food court or bar at the number of students who are happy to talk to me mainly to improve their English but also to ask questions about the UK ,its history, its universities, its music scene, job prospects, etc. Outside the service industry no one in Thailand is interested in speaking to me out of curiosity. Singapore and Hong Kong have quality "human capital" It pains me to say it but Thailand doesn't because the education system doesn't allow it and until the system changes they will not produce young adults with modern day drive.
It's also true I think that successful economies (Singapore, Hong Kong S Korea) have a fairly equal distribution of wealth. You only have to travel outside the major centres in LOS to see this isn't true. If you don't want to travel ask any bargirl, the difficulty she has supporting her wider family in the countryside. Until wealth distribution is fair in LOS I can't see a successful economy.
I admit this is the view of an outsider looking in.

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by jai yen yen » December 21, 2015, 12:58 am

bignote1 wrote:I think Thailand tries to solve its economic problems by spending too much time on the minutia.
I have at least one visit to Singapore and Hong Kong every year and am always impressed when I go to a food court or bar at the number of students who are happy to talk to me mainly to improve their English but also to ask questions about the UK ,its history, its universities, its music scene, job prospects, etc. Outside the service industry no one in Thailand is interested in speaking to me out of curiosity. Singapore and Hong Kong have quality "human capital" It pains me to say it but Thailand doesn't because the education system doesn't allow it and until the system changes they will not produce young adults with modern day drive.
It's also true I think that successful economies (Singapore, Hong Kong S Korea) have a fairly equal distribution of wealth. You only have to travel outside the major centres in LOS to see this isn't true. If you don't want to travel ask any bargirl, the difficulty she has supporting her wider family in the countryside. Until wealth distribution is fair in LOS I can't see a successful economy.
I admit this is the view of an outsider looking in.
You are 100% correct.

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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by bumper » December 25, 2015, 5:11 pm

It's hard to get a read on all this. Keep in mind this is to be used for stimulus if so it could be a good thing.

In the news today BOT says it exceeded it's estimate for 2015 and lowered it estimate for 2016

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... in-october
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Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging

Post by bumper » December 30, 2015, 12:34 pm

Not looking like 2016 is going to be better then this year

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... fficulties
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