The sick man of Southeast Asia

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Twixies
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The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by Twixies » October 19, 2018, 5:11 pm

Amasing Thailand keep doing well, even the stock marked has a big selloff =D>
Risks are rising for the sick man of Southeast Asia. Thailand has held up well during global market ructions that have battered its neighbours. Yet there are few reasons to cheer an ossifying $460 billion economy. With an interest rate hike and a contentious election ahead, there may be even fewer.
Over the last few months, Thailand has looked like a slow-moving refuge. Benchmark Thai 10-year government bonds now have a lower yield than their U.S. equivalent. The main stock index is down a modest 3 percent from January, while the currency is largely unchanged. Indonesia’s rupiah, by contrast, is off 11 percent against the U.S. dollar.
That, however, belies worries over trade tensions, plus the first interest rate increase in over a decade expected in November, and a long-postponed poll, which could take place as soon as February. Thailand has been under military rule since a 2014 coup.
The stock market also looks inflated. It has seen significant net outflows, some $6.4 billion this year. Yet domestic demand has cushioned the blow, keeping the average valuation at a chunky 16 times earnings, despite a far cooler first half for corporates.
There are then questions over infrastructure spending, which may remain erratic until after the vote. Tourism, which accounts for some 12 percent of the economy, has suffered too, as Chinese groups stay away following a boat disaster in Phuket in July. Household debt, meanwhile, is choking consumption.
Still, it is the longer-term issues that are most worrying for the region’s most mature, and slowest large economy. Thais are ageing fast – the working age population may start shrinking from next year, according to Capital Economics – meaning the country is taking on worrying Japanese traits at a lower level of development. And yet there are still multiple brakes to innovation and productivity.
One problem is the cost of borrowing for smaller firms, crowded out by a handful of large local conglomerates. Another is a chronic lack of skills. Thailand ranks dramatically worse in education than its neighbours in surveys, including one backed by the OECD. Multiple barriers, like exams in Thai, make it hard to bring in outside workers too.
Recent reform is encouraging: progress on antitrust rules and state bank oversight, for example. But it’s still not nearly enough.
https://www.breakingviews.com/considere ... ill-winds/



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Laan Yaa Mo
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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by Laan Yaa Mo » October 19, 2018, 6:25 pm

I think most people would label Burma (Myanmar), not Thailand, as the sick man of Southeast Asia. Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines might garner a few votes too, but Burma has more problems (economic and political) and poverty than the rest of them.
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FrazeeDK
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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by FrazeeDK » October 19, 2018, 9:51 pm

well, the working age Thai population might start decreasing but unlike Japan Thailand doesn't seem to have any issues with getting Burmese, Cambodian, Lao, or Vietnamese labor to fill the gap...
Dave

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GT93
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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by GT93 » October 21, 2018, 5:09 am

If the Thais play that well, they should be fine. I think the future still looks good for Thailand and expect the quality of life for Thais to continue to improve.

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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by glalt » October 21, 2018, 9:31 am

There may well be turbulent times ahead. IF, and a big IF an election is held soon, the winner will not please the military government. The old red shirt brigade will no doubt win. Interesting times ahead. You can bet that the present government will delay an election as long as possible.

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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by Laan Yaa Mo » October 22, 2018, 2:48 am

It does not matter who wins the election. The government has gerrymandered the constitution so that the military will have the majority in the Senate (appointed members).
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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by GT93 » October 22, 2018, 8:59 am

It used to be said in Thailand (or so I heard) that a civilian government managed the economy better. That's one argument for the military to step back more from functions such as economic management.

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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by glalt » October 22, 2018, 10:07 am

Actually I think the military government has been and is still doing a decent job. I hated it when the battles were going on. Trying to go somewhere and being stopped at road blocks and not permitted to pass was a huge irritation. Fortunately for me, my little GPS has an option for detours. If not for that function I would have been lost big time. I see a lot of road construction so the government is looking after the infrastructure. That said, there are still warts such as my grid power going off nearly every day, sometimes for a minute or two but sometimes for hours. If not for my little solar power system powering my computer room, I'd be VERY upset. My condo in Jomtien is on a very reliable electric grid. Unfortunately, out here in the boonies the grid stinks and is getting worse and not better.

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saint
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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by saint » October 22, 2018, 1:25 pm

glalt wrote:
October 22, 2018, 10:07 am
Actually I think the military government has been and is still doing a decent job. I hated it when the battles were going on. Trying to go somewhere and being stopped at road blocks and not permitted to pass was a huge irritation. Fortunately for me, my little GPS has an option for detours. If not for that function I would have been lost big time. I see a lot of road construction so the government is looking after the infrastructure. That said, there are still warts such as my grid power going off nearly every day, sometimes for a minute or two but sometimes for hours. If not for my little solar power system powering my computer room, I'd be VERY upset. My condo in Jomtien is on a very reliable electric grid. Unfortunately, out here in the boonies the grid stinks and is getting worse and not better.
[/quote
Maybe you should complain about your power supply to the government thats doing such a good job.
They seem to know how to take and control power .

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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by Laan Yaa Mo » October 22, 2018, 6:13 pm

saint wrote:
October 22, 2018, 1:25 pm
[/quote
Maybe you should complain about your power supply to the government thats doing such a good job.
They seem to know how to take and control power .
And, they have been doing it (staging coups and trying to rule) since the early 1930s.
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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by glalt » October 23, 2018, 9:36 am

Since I am retired here and not a Thai citizen, It really is none of my business who is in control of the government. I am free to leave anytime so if I don't like it, I can just go. I simply want a comfortable quiet life with no hassles. Sure, there are things I would like to see changed but no hurdles that I can't jump over or go around. At my age, I no longer am able jump well.

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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by tamada » October 23, 2018, 12:03 pm

This country is walking backwards into the future and if I was a single man, I would totally pay it no mind like glalt. It's none of my business. However, having a fine wife and two terrific kids here, I cannot possibly presume to decide what's good for them and their future; a future that for the greater part, I will not be here to share with them. All I can do is make sure that they have recourse to the funds needed and the valid travel documents required to step out of the country if it gets all goes pear-shaped. It is their call. My ex-wife was from Laos and she came over to Thailand with her sister when the communists flushed that toilet but their brother stayed behind and joined the 'wrong' side. Their call.

The 6th of October was the (deeply buried) 42nd anniversary of arguably Thailand's most deplorable act of self-destructive, Thai-on-Thai, socially divided, left versus right, violent horror that was aided and abetted by the entities that claim to be always looking after the people and that it was all for the greater good of the nation. Sounds so, so familiar.

If anyone is interested, the movie 'By The Time It Gets Dark' or ดาวคะนอง is worth watching.

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saint
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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by saint » October 23, 2018, 12:51 pm

They do like their selective history , dont they .
If i was single i wouldnt be here at all . Big world , little time left .
However im stupid enough not to be , and as such , what happens here does concern me indirectly .
Cant do a thing about any of it , but sure dont have to like it either.

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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by joepai » October 23, 2018, 1:58 pm

tamada wrote:
October 23, 2018, 12:03 pm
This country is walking backwards into the future and if I was a single man, I would totally pay it no mind like glalt. It's none of my business. However, having a fine wife and two terrific kids here, I cannot possibly presume to decide what's good for them and their future; a future that for the greater part, I will not be here to share with them. All I can do is make sure that they have recourse to the funds needed and the valid travel documents required to step out of the country if it gets all goes pear-shaped. It is their call. My ex-wife was from Laos and she came over to Thailand with her sister when the communists flushed that toilet but their brother stayed behind and joined the 'wrong' side. Their call.

The 6th of October was the (deeply buried) 42nd anniversary of arguably Thailand's most deplorable act of self-destructive, Thai-on-Thai, socially divided, left versus right, violent horror that was aided and abetted by the entities that claim to be always looking after the people and that it was all for the greater good of the nation. Sounds so, so familiar.

If anyone is interested, the movie 'By The Time It Gets Dark' or ดาวคะนอง is worth watching.
The best thing you can do for your kids (and any kids come to that) is to make sure they have a good education - something they will not get in Thai Government schools.
I was born with nothing and still have most of it left

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parrot
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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by parrot » October 23, 2018, 2:20 pm

The past two years of politics in the US has taught me a lot about the state of things here. As much as I disagree with a lot of things that happen here......the masses seem to accept it.
Granted, the government has put a kabash on protests....but even if they didn't, I don't see the common Thai protesting the state of affairs.
Last night, I sat in a dentist office for nearly 2 hours waiting for the verdict on my wife's sore tooth....root canal......yech. The dentist (2 of them running a night clinic) had their hands full of mostly young customers getting their braces adjusted. Nearly all of them signed in at the counter, then scoped out the wide array of colors available (bands, I'd guess). They chose the one they liked and the receptionist set it aside. Then nearly all of them sat down in a comfy chair with their smartphones........easily 50% of them flashed on their selfie camera to check out the state of their braces.......pick a piece of parsley out or smile/frown/grin/mope for the camera. I'm guessing the furthest thing from their minds is whether there will be elections next year or who will be the PM. That said, I noticed the government back tracked on their internet surveillance idea right quickly.
I often wonder how many countries are watching how China is surveilling/controlling the masses and would be willing to employ the same measures to control theirs.
Meanwhile, in the US..........

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tamada
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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by tamada » October 23, 2018, 7:17 pm

^ There's a lot of interesting reading out there that would indicate that a reasonable quantity of the (m)asses don't accept any of it. You need to be careful though and VPN yourself up the ying yang. As for gathering to protest, the junta's limit of groups of 'no more than 5' when meeting that they imposed in 2014 was copied verbatim from the martial law edict that was implemented after the 1976 Thammasat massacre. If there's one thing successive junta's appear to do well it's stick to "The Idiot's Guide to Coups" handbook.

This generation of smartphone-enabled, socially disconnected isn't uniquely Thai. My sister laments the youth back in northern England and my cousin in Canada wonders when there will be an app that allows her to communicate with the younger ones in her extended brood. There's never been a generation so enabled when it comes to free access to learning that squander it on selfies, food-porn and narcissistic sh!te like 'hotornot' and 'prettyscale'. As my sister says, "Unprecedented access to knowledge and wisdom; we are dumber than ever." By the same token, excluding plastic and global warming, what do they really have to thank us for?

Which segues neatly onto the subject of internet surveillance. Beyond their semi-public, low-key back-track, there's absolutely no guarantee they are respecting what we would consider rights to privacy.

"...this post will self-destruct in 10 seconds... Good luck Jim"

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Re: The sick man of Southeast Asia

Post by saint » October 24, 2018, 2:47 pm

Slowly but surely the internet is opening many an eye here. The powers that be can try and keep the locals like mushrooms , usually starting in the schools, but the truth is surely out there and more are finding it .

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