Thailand Economic outlook

Post by **bumper** » July 18, 2014, 11:21 am

Sorry missed the edit, set is still going up.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/ ... l-st-rally

Post by **bumper** » July 22, 2014, 10:04 am

Maybank Kim Eng Kelive Research
DAILY RESEARCH

Selective Buy Yesterday, the SET Index rose by 5.14 points to close at the 1,538.55 level with Bt52.236bn in trading volume. Foreign investors continued net buying Thai stocks for a 10th day by +Bt558mn, continued net buying bonds for a 17th day by +Bt10.019bn, and returned to net shorts in the Index Futures by 4,094 contracts.

Post by **bumper** » July 23, 2014, 3:04 pm

This is very interesting, is time to sale. He thinks it is I don't. To keep things in perspective the U.S. is trading at 16.5% and the bulls are still happy. Has to be a correction at some time. Personally where I'm at today I hope he is right and the Market drops. I like buying them when they are not so expensive as of this afternoon I'm up 13.7%. But, hey I only got 80K in. So nice big correction would be to my liking. Hopefully he is right and I'm wrong.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/ ... -called-it

Post by **bumper** » July 24, 2014, 6:16 pm

This kind of interesting the Political climate in Thailand is never going to be any better then it is now. The infrastructure projects are approved now. It's kind of hard to understand parts of this. Have they priced themselves out of the race in wage raises ect. Maybe. The baht rates is not good for Market competition, But, the BOT can step in on that as they have then past. Tine will tell one would have thought they would have done the downgrade when people were getting killed on the streets, It is what it is and tin me will tell.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/ ... dit-rating

I'm actually amazed myself right now I'm up 18.73% on my holdings a of today. Next moth I start working on my next dividend stock BTS, it will pay in October.

I really wouldn't mind a correction right now, things are little to hot to my liking at the moment. But, I'm going to stay on plan.

Post by **bumper** » July 28, 2014, 10:24 am

We may see a correction in the market I hope so, I like buying at cheaper prices.

Maybank Kim Eng Kelive Research
DAILY RESEARCH

Sideways On Friday, the SET moved sideways before closing at 1,543.85 points (+0.07) at the end of the day with high Bt53.139bn in trading volume. Foreign investors returned to net selling Thai stocks again by -Bt998mn, but continued net buying bonds for a 21st day by +Bt8.552bn and returned to net longs in the Index Futures by 1,476 contracts on the last trading day of the week with no new

Post by **bumper** » July 29, 2014, 3:27 pm

From the Thai capitalists quoted an article from Bloomberg looking at 1400 in the future, the SET corrected a bit in the last few days it's at 1525 now. I would prefer a correction. I will be doing the 20K buy next week. So If it's down better for me.

Keleive has a different view.

29 Jul 08:41 AM
Morning News (29/07/14)

Selective Buy

Yesterday, the SET contracted further by -5.72 points to close at the 1,538.13 level with Bt47.462bn in trading volume.

Foreign investors still slowed investment. Although they returned to net buying Thai stocks by a slight +Bt147mn and continued net long in Index Futures by 1,578 contracts. They returned to net selling bonds for a 1st time in 22 days by -Bt242mn (vs. +Bt179bn in the past 21 days).

Market Outlook

In our view, the earnings results for listed companies will be key market drivers. High speculation will enter stocks with impressive 2Q14 earnings outlooks, cheap valuations compared to sector, and/or stocks that will benefit from the upcoming NCPO projects.

The Thai economic situation looks better after the Ministry of Commerce reported exports expanded for a 1st time in 4 months in June by +3.90% YoY, resulting in a trade surplus of US$1.79bn. On Thursday, if the BoT reports better-than-estimated economic numbers, the SET Index could rise and break the main 1,545-1,550 resistance.

Contractor sector will rise significantly as the NCPO will accelerate the infrastructure project plan before the formation of a new government, which should be by mid-August.

We thus recommend investors accumulate stocks on price weakness as we believe the SET will finally break the 1,550 level to test 1,580-1,600 points.

Either way is fine by me. 1400 wouldn't hurt me at all. But I dearly love buying at lower prices.

Post by **bumper** » July 31, 2014, 12:04 pm

Infrastructure plan has been signed, this lays out the eight year plan in detail. I didn't see anything about a dual rail to Udon. ERW is a hotel developer and I don't think it has anything to do with this. Buds will start if the 4th quarter of this year. This si my broker, so I don't know if you can read the detail on the web or not. If you can it's worth a look. We are talking a huge project here.

Maybank Kim Eng Kelive Research
STOCKS RESEARCH / SECTOR

ERW (6.00 - Buy)
Earnings bottoming in 2Q14, eye on 4Q14

click view on web

click more detail

I just checked, you a can't go to the web from here. So I guess you will just have to take my word for it

Contractor sector : NCPO approves Bt2.4tn transport infrastructure plan

The NCPO has approved the transport infrastructure development plan (2015-2022), which has 5 major facets, worth Bt2.4tn. This approval will improve investment sentiment for the sector and we have rolled over TPs to the next 12 months, but have maintained our Neutral weight. XX is our sector top pick (Buy: TP Bt31) as all XX subsidiaries are exposed to the infrastructure projects.

click view on web

Post by **bumper** » August 1, 2014, 10:38 am

Now we are starting o getting into territory I like I'm still up 9% Set at 1494 at the opening

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/ ... at-opening

I will continue on with my plan of 20K a month

Post by **bumper** » August 1, 2014, 10:49 am

Maybank Kim Eng Kelive Research
DAILY RESEARCH

Global Consolidation Yesterday, the SET slumped by -16.40 points to close at the 1,502.39 level with Bt51.232bn in volume. Foreign investors took profit from Thai stocks by -Bt1.095bn and continued net shorts in the Index Futures by 2,520 contracts and continued net buying bonds for a 3rd day by Bt8.667bn. Yesterday, the baht weakened by Bt0.17/US$ during trading.

Post by **bumper** » August 5, 2014, 1:12 pm

Foreign money makes a difference

Maybank Kim Eng Kelive Research
DAILY RESEARCH

Remaining unstable Yesterday, the SET recovered for a 1st time in 7 days by +19.18 points to close at the 1,519.38 level with Bt47.053bn in trading volume. Foreign investors continued net selling bonds for a 2nd day by Bt5.438bn and returned to net buying Thai stocks again by Bt1.06bn and continued net longs in the Index Futures for a 5th consecutive day by 5,021 contracts, which is mainly due

Post by **bumper** » August 5, 2014, 5:31 pm

Who are the foreigners that are buying it appears to be Japanese,

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... individual-shape

Post by **bumper** » August 6, 2014, 7:24 am

Teflon Thailand

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/ ... from-china

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/ ... to-1528-98

Post by **JimboPSM** » August 6, 2014, 11:32 am

bumper wrote:Who are the foreigners that are buying it appears to be Japanese,

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... individual-shape

It does not matter how much they try to delude themselves or delude others, precious little of the money flows into Thailand are long-term “investment” capital.

The reality is that the so-called investments are rather grubby hot money flows into the bond market and the carry trade and not (as so often claimed) flows of inward investment capital demonstrating confidence in Thailand – when you cut to the chase, it is nothing more and nothing less than an opportunity to make a fast buck.

For the BoT and the markets to weight the value of the Baht as much as they do on the basis of hot money flows seriously undermines the Thai economy and Thai businesses (in particular those involved in exporting – including invisible exports such as tourism).

With regard to the comments about the source being Japan, there are a couple of good reasons as to why money might come from Japan:

1. Central bank interest rates:
- • BoJ interest rate = 0.1% (with talk of dropping it to zero)
  • BoT interest rate = 2.0% (with talk of it increasing)
2. A historic predilection of the Japanese to the carry trade.

In the global economy that we have today Thailand can no longer be an "island", and for the BoT to effectively operate its monetary policy in isolation without appearing* to fully consider the impact of how other central banks have very substantially modified their monetary policies post 2008 financial meltdown is, to say the least, a little short-sighted (perhaps with its run of forecasting successes the BoT should change its logo to a white stick).

Hot money flows will continue to be a problem until effective banking controls are implemented that discourage them.

* I say “appearing” as it is not evident from the BoT minutes that this has ever been fully considered.

Post by **bumper** » August 6, 2014, 3:32 pm

I have to admit it amazes me as well. But it just keeps coming. It will pull out at some point., just as it did before when they tried to limit it to long term investments only. They backed off that when they saw the effect Then it came back again. In part of due diligence I look at board members and research the major holders. There a lot Chinese and Japanese Holders. At least in the stocks, one of my requirements is that there are at least two large foreign holders.

In the end it is real money and your not playing monopoly.

You could see the recent correction coming, it didn't last as long as I expected. The SET broke the 1530 line today. There will be others. I think the big one will come when the FED raises interest rates Or the BOT attaches a penalty for taking money out early. With all the money being pumped into infrastructure over the next two years I don't think we will see that for sometime to come.

China it will just a short period of time before we see positive moves from there

In the end it all works off greed

Post by **Twixies** » August 6, 2014, 6:05 pm

Thanks again for a good tread, with good information

Post by **bumper** » August 6, 2014, 7:18 pm

I'm amature watch what Jimbo says

Keep in mind I'm in this for the long run. So far I haven't gotten the black. But, I will. In the next ten years there will be another recession and eventually a recovery. For me the market goes done I can buy more shares, it's pretty expensive right now. I sit a ledger for dividends paid through the year. That is one thing you can't track on my Kem Eng site. That will either be profit or offset to a loss.

For me calculating a 10% loss is tough, the stocks themselves that's easy right on the site. But normally when the stock market goes down the dollar goes up, then you have dividends to consider. I'm afraid I would have to hire Jimbo to understand that one

Your welcome

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/ ... expected-2

Post by **bumper** » August 7, 2014, 9:17 am

This isn't Thailand. But, it's not a real good sign for the region. Markets run on emotion as well as good knowledge. So a little blip here or there can effect Thailand. But with the infrastructure projects, we should be good to go for at least two years. At some point Politics will raise it's ugly head again.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-0 ... -1998.html

Post by **bumper** » August 7, 2014, 12:34 pm

Lucky me, my shares are still going north. =D>

Maybank Kim Eng Kelive Research
DAILY RESEARCH

Instability continues Yesterday, the SET slid for a 1st time in 3 days by -6.57 points to close at the 1,522.41 level with Bt49.917bn in trading volume. Foreign investors returned to net buying Thai stocks again by +Bt1.048bn and continued net longs in the Index Futures for a 3rd day by 3,805 contracts and continued net selling bonds for a 4th day by Bt4.318bn, reflecting the more positive for

Post by **bumper** » August 8, 2014, 12:18 pm

SET dropped pretty good today, Maybe I will finally get some good prices next month. The doom and gloom guys are talking about another 2008 event or worse. They might be right doesn't change anything for me I will stay on plan.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/ ... at-opening\

Maybank Kim Eng Kelive Research
DAILY RESEARCH

SMID Cap Day Yesterday, the SET dropped a mere 0.14 points to close at the 1,522.27 level with Bt44.333bn in trading volume. Foreign investors returned to net selling Thai stocks by +Bt1.025bn and returned to net shorts in the Index Futures by 10,971 contracts and continued net selling bonds for

Post by **bumper** » August 8, 2014, 12:33 pm

This just seems so odd to the backdrop we see. But farmers got paid and started spending. 2nd half infrastructure should carry the day.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... month-high

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... ises-again