And, if my post above has not caused concern, take a look at this one
http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/26/investi ... us-stocks/
To compare the US Dollar directly with the Thai Baht without having regard to the ways in which the Chinese economy will change both, in different ways, is pointless.
Baht What up with Dat?????
Baht What up with Dat?????
But, as the link says, the problem with china is it all depends on how the government reacts - their are lies, damn lies and chinese statistics - plus government intervention there is a game changer. And as also mentioned, most countries do not have much direct exposure to the chinese economy - no massive investments, just trade - with countries who export resources to China most at risk. If China gets flu, the world economy just gets a cold. One problem has been the relentless tide of Chinese exports is actually somewhat damaging to many manufacturing economies. With these issues, for most of us trying to guess what the impact would be on us personally is a lottery.
On the other hand, exchange rate changes are very sensitive to us expats, as most derive their income from abroad; but very few have Yuan based assets so what the exchange rate there is has no direct impact. THERE IS a very visible connection between western countries interest rates, and those countries macro economic problems on the Thai baht rate - as is also the case for Thailand's exports on their exchange rate. And that is where the emphasis lies on this thread. We care about exchange rates, not the worlds macro economy ....
On the other hand, exchange rate changes are very sensitive to us expats, as most derive their income from abroad; but very few have Yuan based assets so what the exchange rate there is has no direct impact. THERE IS a very visible connection between western countries interest rates, and those countries macro economic problems on the Thai baht rate - as is also the case for Thailand's exports on their exchange rate. And that is where the emphasis lies on this thread. We care about exchange rates, not the worlds macro economy ....
Baht What up with Dat?????
By ignoring the world's macro economy your predictions are pure guesswork. Currencies can do only three things. They can go up, go down or stand still. Sticking a pin to determine the baht's movement, or lack of it, would be equally valid as your methods above,
The Chinese economy has always been huge in terms of the number of Chinese people on the planet. The difference is that, since China has embraced capitalism, its importance has been magnified. Nobody knows what is going to the world economy because we are in uncharted territory. Nothing like this has happened before and economic models based on past statistics are becoming worthless.
I accept part of what you say but you have not taken into account the influence that China has on other economies. As a simple example I give this one. I am Welsh and there has been much talk about the construction of a tidal barrage in Swansea Bay which would produce 25% of the electricity demand for Wales. This project has been costed, initial plans provided and the whole issue placed in the public domain. There would be obvious benefits in the long term simply down to the electricity being generated in a "green" manner. Huge numbers of jobs would be created and the region would benefit immensely. Unfortunately, the company that provided the plans, and most of the huge costs of building this barrage, is Chinese. So, that is the end of that !
I appreciate your views but I disagree with them.
The Chinese economy has always been huge in terms of the number of Chinese people on the planet. The difference is that, since China has embraced capitalism, its importance has been magnified. Nobody knows what is going to the world economy because we are in uncharted territory. Nothing like this has happened before and economic models based on past statistics are becoming worthless.
I accept part of what you say but you have not taken into account the influence that China has on other economies. As a simple example I give this one. I am Welsh and there has been much talk about the construction of a tidal barrage in Swansea Bay which would produce 25% of the electricity demand for Wales. This project has been costed, initial plans provided and the whole issue placed in the public domain. There would be obvious benefits in the long term simply down to the electricity being generated in a "green" manner. Huge numbers of jobs would be created and the region would benefit immensely. Unfortunately, the company that provided the plans, and most of the huge costs of building this barrage, is Chinese. So, that is the end of that !
I appreciate your views but I disagree with them.
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JimboPSM
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Baht What up with Dat?????
The influence of China on the foreign exchange markets is vastly overrated; while economic “news” can and does cause blips on the foreign exchange markets they are generally of short duration and relatively small.
While the stranglehold on the CNY by the Chinese government has been loosened a tad, compared to many other currencies it is still a tightly managed currency and any links to the vagaries of the stock markets are tenuous at best.
For example, despite all the overblown hype from the financial pundits about the Chinese stock markets this month, on the foreign exchanges the biggest daily movement of the CNY against the USD so far in July has only been 0.1% (and that was on 8th July).
By way of comparison here are the biggest daily movements so far in July of some other currency pairings (which I monitor on a regular basis) in descending order of magnitude.
While the stranglehold on the CNY by the Chinese government has been loosened a tad, compared to many other currencies it is still a tightly managed currency and any links to the vagaries of the stock markets are tenuous at best.
For example, despite all the overblown hype from the financial pundits about the Chinese stock markets this month, on the foreign exchanges the biggest daily movement of the CNY against the USD so far in July has only been 0.1% (and that was on 8th July).
By way of comparison here are the biggest daily movements so far in July of some other currency pairings (which I monitor on a regular basis) in descending order of magnitude.
- • EUR/THB – 1.49%
• AUD/USD – 1.46%
• AUD/THB – 1.38%
• EUR/USD – 1.37%
• GBP/EUR – 1.27%
• GBP/THB – 0.88%
• GBP/USD – 0.88%
• USD/THB – 0.76%
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.
Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.
Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.
Baht What up with Dat?????
You seem to be confusing issues here. Of itself the Chinese Stock Market is of minor importance. Likewise, the value of the Chinese currency. What is important are the underlying problems in the Chinese economy which have caused the index to fall there. The Chinese economy is going through a period of enormous "boom and bust" and this has repercussions for all the world's economies. You have not addressed the example I provided and it was only one of many. It is chilling to think that the economy of Swansea can be influenced by a country over six thousand miles away.
The Chinese have invested heavily in other countries. Once, their economic activities were confined mostly within the boundaries of their own country but this is no longer the case. One has only to look at their investments in Laos and Thailand to be convinced of their importance. Land prices have rocketed in Nong Khai because of possible Chinese interest. I am not on my own in thinking that China is a major player in the world economy and many "experts" agree with me.
I am due to move to Thailand shortly and on a personal basis it would be good for me if the baht was devalued. However, things are not quite as simple as they may seem. Thailand has big problems not the least being enormous levels of personal debt, My advantage in a devalued baht will inevitably mean misery for many Thai people as recently purchased homes and cars are repossessed. In this world we must be careful what we wish for as it may come true.
The Chinese have invested heavily in other countries. Once, their economic activities were confined mostly within the boundaries of their own country but this is no longer the case. One has only to look at their investments in Laos and Thailand to be convinced of their importance. Land prices have rocketed in Nong Khai because of possible Chinese interest. I am not on my own in thinking that China is a major player in the world economy and many "experts" agree with me.
I am due to move to Thailand shortly and on a personal basis it would be good for me if the baht was devalued. However, things are not quite as simple as they may seem. Thailand has big problems not the least being enormous levels of personal debt, My advantage in a devalued baht will inevitably mean misery for many Thai people as recently purchased homes and cars are repossessed. In this world we must be careful what we wish for as it may come true.
Baht What up with Dat?????
can123, on the 1 hand you say
and then you sayStill scarcely a mention of the economic situation in China. Lots of charts, dealing with the US dollar and the Thai baht, none of which show any the possible impact of the Chinese stock market declines on the world economy.
So even an economic expert such as yourself has absolutely no idea what is actually happening let alone if there will be any impact on anything, let alone exchange rates.The Bottom Line
China, the world’s second largest economy, has a huge impact on the global economy and financial markets. While there are a variety of economic indicators to help you keep your fingers on its pulse, it's still difficult to understand and assess, even for financial professionals.
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JimboPSM
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Baht What up with Dat?????
I look at the actual foreign exchange rate data, current and historical, to see what has been and is happening – while I do not have a crystal ball and have little or no idea what rates will be tomorrow, I do have some 35 years of exchange rate data (including the CNY) which, if nothing else, gives me some degree of factually based historical insight into where we have come from.
The data history for the CNY/USD rate shows that, other than in the most tenuous way, its movements do not correlate either with what the Chinese and US economies have been or are doing or what the Chinese or US stock markets have been or are doing.
Irrespective of all the overblown hype from financial media pundits about the stock markets, there have been no significant movements (other than temporary blips) on the CNY/USD rate and, except in the unlikely event that the Chinese Government were to release its stranglehold on the CNY, I see no prospect of any significant changes in the short to medium term.
As history shows that major events such as the 1997 Asian crash, the dotcom bubble, 9/11 and the 2008 financial meltdown had virtually no impact on the CNY/USD rate, it should not therefore come as too much of a surprise that the Chinese stock market bubble bursting is (certainly so far) having no significant impact on the CNY/USD rate.
For those who may not be aware of the degree of the bubble that occurred in the Chinese market over the last year and its recent fall / correction / bursting, this is a one year chart from Bloomberg of the Shanghai Composite Index:
If the Chinese government were to modify its position (or some other circumstance were to come to light) where some kind of correlation or link to other economic events (internal or external) which would affect the value of the CNY significantly and hence other foreign exchange markets I would modify my analytical stance accordingly – until I perceive that such a situation is likely to happen, stock market gyrations and financial media histrionics (interesting as they may be) will leave me largely indifferent.
The data history for the CNY/USD rate shows that, other than in the most tenuous way, its movements do not correlate either with what the Chinese and US economies have been or are doing or what the Chinese or US stock markets have been or are doing.
Irrespective of all the overblown hype from financial media pundits about the stock markets, there have been no significant movements (other than temporary blips) on the CNY/USD rate and, except in the unlikely event that the Chinese Government were to release its stranglehold on the CNY, I see no prospect of any significant changes in the short to medium term.
As history shows that major events such as the 1997 Asian crash, the dotcom bubble, 9/11 and the 2008 financial meltdown had virtually no impact on the CNY/USD rate, it should not therefore come as too much of a surprise that the Chinese stock market bubble bursting is (certainly so far) having no significant impact on the CNY/USD rate.
For those who may not be aware of the degree of the bubble that occurred in the Chinese market over the last year and its recent fall / correction / bursting, this is a one year chart from Bloomberg of the Shanghai Composite Index:
- Latest details: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHCOMP:IND
If the Chinese government were to modify its position (or some other circumstance were to come to light) where some kind of correlation or link to other economic events (internal or external) which would affect the value of the CNY significantly and hence other foreign exchange markets I would modify my analytical stance accordingly – until I perceive that such a situation is likely to happen, stock market gyrations and financial media histrionics (interesting as they may be) will leave me largely indifferent.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.
Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.
Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.
Baht What up with Dat?????
BobHelm wrote:can123, on the 1 hand you sayand then you sayStill scarcely a mention of the economic situation in China. Lots of charts, dealing with the US dollar and the Thai baht, none of which show any the possible impact of the Chinese stock market declines on the world economy.So even an economic expert such as yourself has absolutely no idea what is actually happening let alone if there will be any impact on anything, let alone exchange rates.The Bottom Line
China, the world’s second largest economy, has a huge impact on the global economy and financial markets. While there are a variety of economic indicators to help you keep your fingers on its pulse, it's still difficult to understand and assess, even for financial professionals.
Yet again you resort to the "smart Alec" approach. You contribute nothing of meaning to the debate and simply try to "have a go" at me. Please reread what I have written and you will see that there is no contradiction on my part. I simply mentioned that previous remarks made about exchange rates were not valid unless regard was paid to the crisis in China. At no stage did I offer a solution or a firm prediction about exchange rates and had hoped that future predictions relating to currency movements would take into account the influence that China had on the world economy.
Fortunately, the other posters on this thread have understood me and joined in the debate in the right spirit. I disagree with their views but accept that their posts, unlike yours, are constructive. I will not respond to any more of your posts unless they are relevant to the discussion and not simply an opportunity to be unpleasant/aggressive to me.
Last edited by can123 on July 29, 2015, 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Baht What up with Dat?????
JimboPSM wrote:I look at the actual foreign exchange rate data, current and historical, to see what has been and is happening – while I do not have a crystal ball and have little or no idea what rates will be tomorrow, I do have some 35 years of exchange rate data (including the CNY) which, if nothing else, gives me some degree of factually based historical insight into where we have come from.
And, with respect, this is where you are going wrong. There is no "history" because the emergence of China as a major player in the world economy is something which we have never seen before. Their own economy was always of huge proportions but now, because of their international involvement all over the world, they influence the economies of a great many countries directly. They were on the edge of the global economy during your "history" but now they are "kicking and screaming" in a new age and we have to take notice of them.
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JimboPSM
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- Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
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Baht What up with Dat?????
While there may be no precedent to the emergence of China as an economic power since it opened up for business back in the late 1970’s that certainly does not mean that there has not been a history since then that can be studied and learnt from.
In my opinion there most definitely is a history, a very small part of which I have experienced firsthand as, over 20 years ago, I visited China numerous times to set up accounting and administration systems to enable consolidation of a joint venture with a Chinese company into our group accounts as its manufacturing facility came on stream.
I have been following the economic development of China and the degree of its impact on the global financial system (including foreign exchange rates) ever since.
In my opinion there most definitely is a history, a very small part of which I have experienced firsthand as, over 20 years ago, I visited China numerous times to set up accounting and administration systems to enable consolidation of a joint venture with a Chinese company into our group accounts as its manufacturing facility came on stream.
I have been following the economic development of China and the degree of its impact on the global financial system (including foreign exchange rates) ever since.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.
Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.
Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.
Baht What up with Dat?????
JimboPSM wrote:I have been following the economic development of China and the degree of its impact on the global financial system (including foreign exchange rates) ever since.
I am sure that most sensible people have been doing the same thing. I am so concerned about China that I am trying my best to get my daughter to learn Chinese. When I am dead and gone the Chinese might be a super power bigger than America but whatever happens they will certainly be very, very influential in all aspects of human life.
Baht What up with Dat?????
In this article Russell Napier: What Happens When Markets Realize China Is A Forced Seller Of Treasuries the author talks about an unexpected plunge in China's foreign exchange reserves - a historic sale of US Treasurys
"what is surely the biggest Chinese wildcard, not what happens to itts manipulated stock market, just how much more capital outflows will Beijing suffer before it is forced to finally end the Renminbi's peg with the dollar, is finally being appreciated by the general public."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-2 ... -treasurys
"what is surely the biggest Chinese wildcard, not what happens to itts manipulated stock market, just how much more capital outflows will Beijing suffer before it is forced to finally end the Renminbi's peg with the dollar, is finally being appreciated by the general public."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-2 ... -treasurys
Baht What up with Dat?????
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... since-2001
We all know the baht has fallen and things are not looking good but this is worrying. It may well work to my advantage that my proposed move to Thailand has been delayed.
We all know the baht has fallen and things are not looking good but this is worrying. It may well work to my advantage that my proposed move to Thailand has been delayed.
Baht What up with Dat?????
My amateur take:
El Hefe has declared military officers better capable of running ministries than run of the mill politicians. The last time the country had a PM with "General" as his prefix, the man ran the country into an iceberg and sunk the ship. So, with no immediate prospects for non-military minds to navigate the seas, I'll continue to feel comfy with a forecast of 40 to $1.
That said, history seems to support 25-35 to one.....more than >35 to 1. So, for me, anything above 35 to $1 is like mana from heaven......enjoy it while it lasts, but don't get too used to it.
If you moved here when the rate was 40ish to $1, you have felt cheated the past 10 or so years........when in reality, 30 to 1 is a blessing for those of us who moved here when the rate was 25 to 1 day after day after day after day.
El Hefe has declared military officers better capable of running ministries than run of the mill politicians. The last time the country had a PM with "General" as his prefix, the man ran the country into an iceberg and sunk the ship. So, with no immediate prospects for non-military minds to navigate the seas, I'll continue to feel comfy with a forecast of 40 to $1.
That said, history seems to support 25-35 to one.....more than >35 to 1. So, for me, anything above 35 to $1 is like mana from heaven......enjoy it while it lasts, but don't get too used to it.
If you moved here when the rate was 40ish to $1, you have felt cheated the past 10 or so years........when in reality, 30 to 1 is a blessing for those of us who moved here when the rate was 25 to 1 day after day after day after day.
Baht What up with Dat?????
Paul Krugman weighs in on China.can123 wrote:Still scarcely a mention of the economic situation in China. Lots of charts, dealing with the US dollar and the Thai baht, none of which show any the possible impact of the Chinese stock market declines on the world economy.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/07/31/op ... ?referrer=
Baht What up with Dat?????
Very good item which probably shows the true position of the Chinese economy and the reasons for the fall in the stock market there. Now all we need now are psychic powers to tell us what will happen next. We are in a whole new ball game but it is looking more and more likely that the Baht will fall some time soon.
I was in Pattaya when the Baht crashed and it came as a shock. When I first visited Thailand it appeared to be booming and there was much talk of the "Tiger Economy". On my first taxi ride from Don Muang to Pattaya I saw nothing but construction work and high rise buildings but I knew there was something wrong. Nearly all the new buildings I saw were empty. The bubble was about to burst.
Although I expected a fall in the value of the Baht then I would be lying if I said that the ferocity of the and dramatic nature of that fall did not amaze me. There I was getting a huge increase in my spending money and exchange booths were posting new rates every hour. Although there has been a more gradual fall recently I cannot believe that the Thais have controlled the devaluation. It is happening and they can do nothing to stop it.
If I were a gambling man, and I am, I would stick my neck out and say that there will be a drastic fall in the value of the Baht before the end of this year. So, my gut feeling is that the Baht will continue its gradual downward movement which will end in a "bang". I am going to be foolish and hazard a guess as to what the currency may be worth - 65+ Baht to the UK Pound. Pure guesswork on my part and heavily influenced by that mad weekend in Pattaya all those years ago.
I was in Pattaya when the Baht crashed and it came as a shock. When I first visited Thailand it appeared to be booming and there was much talk of the "Tiger Economy". On my first taxi ride from Don Muang to Pattaya I saw nothing but construction work and high rise buildings but I knew there was something wrong. Nearly all the new buildings I saw were empty. The bubble was about to burst.
Although I expected a fall in the value of the Baht then I would be lying if I said that the ferocity of the and dramatic nature of that fall did not amaze me. There I was getting a huge increase in my spending money and exchange booths were posting new rates every hour. Although there has been a more gradual fall recently I cannot believe that the Thais have controlled the devaluation. It is happening and they can do nothing to stop it.
If I were a gambling man, and I am, I would stick my neck out and say that there will be a drastic fall in the value of the Baht before the end of this year. So, my gut feeling is that the Baht will continue its gradual downward movement which will end in a "bang". I am going to be foolish and hazard a guess as to what the currency may be worth - 65+ Baht to the UK Pound. Pure guesswork on my part and heavily influenced by that mad weekend in Pattaya all those years ago.
Baht What up with Dat?????
I got the best rate of exchange on payday then I've had in a long time 35.0 yesterday/ =D> =D> =D> =D>
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... since-2001
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... since-2001
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it
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Bandung_Dero
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Baht What up with Dat?????
Yes you guys are on a winner at the moment, Canadians, Kiwis and Aussies are really suffering under commodities downturn, bullshlt in China and the Greek "Banana Republic" syndrome.bumper wrote:I got the best rate of exchange on payday then I've had in a long time 35.0 yesterday/ =D> =D> =D> =D>
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... since-2001
CNN today were forecasting steep decrease in the price of gold - USD $350.00 -
That can only be better for the USD/THB xrate!Sent from my 1977 Apple II using 2 Heinz bake bean cans and piano wire!
Baht What up with Dat?????
The speculation re which way and, how far the exchange rate will move is interesting but what will this and a potential recession have on us on a day to day basis in Thailand? What were the experiences the last time Thailand experienced this - there have been references here but, it was before my time?
I appreciate that we will potentially get more in exchanging money but is hyperinflation possible/probable? What about the impact on money that has been borrowed or loaned out? What is the impact on owned assets?
My personal background gives me an insight to how we would be affected in the West but, in a relatively unstable economy such as we have here, it is difficult to speculate.
I appreciate that we will potentially get more in exchanging money but is hyperinflation possible/probable? What about the impact on money that has been borrowed or loaned out? What is the impact on owned assets?
My personal background gives me an insight to how we would be affected in the West but, in a relatively unstable economy such as we have here, it is difficult to speculate.
Baht What up with Dat?????
If your speaking of the 97 crash not many left from that time. 2008 Thailand grew whatever happens it will all change eventually. Parrot was here in 97
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it