Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
- Drunk Monkey
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Re: Corona Virus / COVID-19 Important Information
Nonthaburi has a high number of cases at 48 .. white collar workers in Bkk who commute daily...could be why and the reasoning behind the curfew... the first of many IMO
DM
DM
Claret n Blue all way thru .. Up the Iron
L2 Season 19/20 Codheads 0 Scunny 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2qrsItFUug
8 minutes is the point of lift off !!!!!!!
L2 Season 19/20 Codheads 0 Scunny 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2qrsItFUug
8 minutes is the point of lift off !!!!!!!
Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
Hi and I did say "If other Countries follow suit"sometimewoodworker wrote: ↑March 31, 2020, 7:03 pmI think that even if the data coming out of China is accurate you can not draw any conclusions about any other countries. Or the natural progress of the infection.pipoz4444 wrote: ↑March 31, 2020, 6:20 pmThis is the one for China. Just wish I could believe it was accurate
Just looking at when the Case Numbers start to slow around 14 February 2020 - 70,000 (in Blue) to where the Recovery Numbers is about the same 70,000 (in Yellow) 16 March 2020, i.e. 31 Days.
So if other countries follow suit, then about 31 days after the "Trend of Daily New Cases Reducing (for say 3 consecutive days), one would then expect that the total number of People who had Recovered (being equal) are now arguably immune to a second infection, would be a good time to consider easing ease up on the daily restrictions (such a lock downs etc, city by city) in that Country.
pipoz4444
In my opinion few countries will be able to control the spread until everyone who has been infected has progressed through the disease and is completely clear. If you can do that you are OK but if there are still people who can spread the infection will be deadly.
This is due to the extreme controls available in China but in no other country together with the technology deployed there that is not elsewhere. The facial recognition available there makes contact tracing much less of a problem.
South Korea would be a slightly better model, the problem there is that they actually have the capacity to test anyone who might have any symptoms or none at all.
Once you can stop the spread the recovery rate can catch up until then I think that the information you have is of only academic interest.
Again in my opinion, until there is a vaccine extraordinary precautions will have to stay, though not the current level of travel, and isolation restrictions.
Within the Link I found this below for South Korea. Its is not complete and hard to read the time scale on the bottom (Need better eyesight).
For SK, it does however indicate, a flattening of the Curve (a slowdown in the rate of increase of cases) at about 7,165 Total Cases and this looks like it was around 7 March 2020
Unfortunately the Recovered Case Numbers stop at around 5,100, as of 30 March 2020. Will just have to wait until the Recovering Numbers catch up to 7,165 and see if this happens around 07 April 2020, that being the the 31 days mark, after Slowdown.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... outh_Korea
That's one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind.
- sometimewoodworker
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
I understood and appreciate that point.
I was making clear that the “if” can not happen due to a variety of factors not the least being the extremely extensive monitoring that is done in China and the genuine availability of tests in SK.
It will be wonderful if the China/S.K. Pattern can be replicated elsewhere but I think that long distance airborne porcine creatures or a multitude of albino elephants are much much more likely. 555
Jerome and Nui's new househttp://bit.ly/NJnewHouse
In my posts all fees and requirements are the standard R&R but TIT and a brown envelope can make incredible changes YMMV.
In my posts all fees and requirements are the standard R&R but TIT and a brown envelope can make incredible changes YMMV.
Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
John Hopkins University is already undertaking the mapping and or modelling to mathematically predict the like trends for case numbers, that will eventuate in the USA and other Countries. The Link below gives you an insight into what they are doing and what they are predicting. Their present Modelling predictions appear to be based on a MAE of 86, so not perfect, but an acceptable value, given the data they have to date . Anyway JHU know what they are doing.
I found the last analysis done by JHU on 2020. Unfortunately it suggests that the United States is on track to experience the same levels of infection as countries such as Italy, South Korea, and Iran. I suspect JHU will update and re-forecast their predicted case numbers for the US soon
I do realize that it is only Theoretical Mathematical Modelling and in its early stage of data collection, but these guys have been practicing this analysis & modelling for a long time, and have a habit of becoming reasonably accurate with their predictions once they have collected enough base data
pipoz4444
https://towardsdatascience.com/estimati ... ce17df029a
I found the last analysis done by JHU on 2020. Unfortunately it suggests that the United States is on track to experience the same levels of infection as countries such as Italy, South Korea, and Iran. I suspect JHU will update and re-forecast their predicted case numbers for the US soon
I do realize that it is only Theoretical Mathematical Modelling and in its early stage of data collection, but these guys have been practicing this analysis & modelling for a long time, and have a habit of becoming reasonably accurate with their predictions once they have collected enough base data
pipoz4444
https://towardsdatascience.com/estimati ... ce17df029a
Last edited by pipoz4444 on April 1, 2020, 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
That's one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind.
Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
Chicken soup?mathusalah80 wrote: ↑March 31, 2020, 3:11 pmSo, at age 88, I suppose I could best be described as an already demised, ancient old Hen. THAT's what I would call facing reality Tamada!!saint wrote: ↑March 31, 2020, 11:24 amMaybe not to you young pups . Maybe not a spring chicken , no , more like an Autumn chicken .tamada wrote: ↑March 31, 2020, 9:03 amYes, 55 and 63 is definitely in the "not a spring chicken any more" age category. Reality sucks sometimes.jackspratt wrote: ↑March 30, 2020, 1:13 pmIf 55 and 63 are now considered "elderly", the rest of us don't stand much chance.Amged El-Hawrani, a 55-year-old ear, nose and throat consultant, died on Saturday at Leicester Royal Infirmary, while Adil El Tayar, 63, an organ transplant specialist, died on Wednesday at West Middlesex University Hospital in London, it emerged. Both had contracted Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... f-pandemic
Certainly not a Winter chicken , and its not started snowing yet .
I am already the wrong side of 63 so consider myself a hen of the old, golden variety... if I can find any!
Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
Interest video about how China's healthcare system led to the COVID-19 pandemic
Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
Udon has identified 2 dormitories on the Rahjapat campus off of Srisuk Rd to use in the event the existing hospital system is full.
https://udontoday.co/300363-2/
https://udontoday.co/300363-2/
Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
Among a few items on Thai government websites today: police raided a bar in town that was 'closed' except for customers inside who were drinking.
And:
The government isn't taking lightly April Fools Day jokes about Covid 19. deja vu hi jack jokes at the airport from days gone by.
And:
The government isn't taking lightly April Fools Day jokes about Covid 19. deja vu hi jack jokes at the airport from days gone by.
Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
Interesti9ng information, by the way does anyone know exactly how MANY COVID 19 cases we have here in Udon Thani and where are they ?parrot wrote: ↑April 1, 2020, 2:51 amUdon has identified 2 dormitories on the Rahjapat campus off of Srisuk Rd to use in the event the existing hospital system is full.
https://udontoday.co/300363-2/
- sometimewoodworker
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
8 probably in the hospital last time I lookedKhun Paul wrote: ↑April 1, 2020, 6:54 amInteresti9ng information, by the way does anyone know exactly how MANY COVID 19 cases we have here in Udon Thani and where are they ?parrot wrote: ↑April 1, 2020, 2:51 amUdon has identified 2 dormitories on the Rahjapat campus off of Srisuk Rd to use in the event the existing hospital system is full.
https://udontoday.co/300363-2/
https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en/
Jerome and Nui's new househttp://bit.ly/NJnewHouse
In my posts all fees and requirements are the standard R&R but TIT and a brown envelope can make incredible changes YMMV.
In my posts all fees and requirements are the standard R&R but TIT and a brown envelope can make incredible changes YMMV.
- Drunk Monkey
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
Heres the virus tracker by map ..not sure if this is up to date or being or being updated on a regular basis as Udon is still showing the data by province icon as are many other places.
https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en
its worth pointing out the places like Chonburi , Nonthaburi / Pathum Thani etc .. places where a high percentage of residents are Bkk based for their work and commute.
DM
https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en
its worth pointing out the places like Chonburi , Nonthaburi / Pathum Thani etc .. places where a high percentage of residents are Bkk based for their work and commute.
DM
Claret n Blue all way thru .. Up the Iron
L2 Season 19/20 Codheads 0 Scunny 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2qrsItFUug
8 minutes is the point of lift off !!!!!!!
L2 Season 19/20 Codheads 0 Scunny 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2qrsItFUug
8 minutes is the point of lift off !!!!!!!
- jackspratt
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
Without the kids at Uni, using their dorms is probably a good idea.
- sometimewoodworker
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
TheDrunk Monkey wrote: ↑April 1, 2020, 8:31 amHeres the virus tracker by map ..not sure if this is up to date or being or being updated on a regular basis as Udon is still showing the data by province icon as are many other places.
https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en
Did you read the ticker that is scrolling at the top and is showing in my screen shot above?
Jerome and Nui's new househttp://bit.ly/NJnewHouse
In my posts all fees and requirements are the standard R&R but TIT and a brown envelope can make incredible changes YMMV.
In my posts all fees and requirements are the standard R&R but TIT and a brown envelope can make incredible changes YMMV.
- Drunk Monkey
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
yes i did just pointed out IF its current in that the figures are accurate ?? .. also i commented on the Udon province still having the data by province icon.sometimewoodworker wrote: ↑April 1, 2020, 10:57 amTheDrunk Monkey wrote: ↑April 1, 2020, 8:31 amHeres the virus tracker by map ..not sure if this is up to date or being or being updated on a regular basis as Udon is still showing the data by province icon as are many other places.
https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en
Did you read the ticker that is scrolling at the top and is showing in my screen shot above?
Claret n Blue all way thru .. Up the Iron
L2 Season 19/20 Codheads 0 Scunny 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2qrsItFUug
8 minutes is the point of lift off !!!!!!!
L2 Season 19/20 Codheads 0 Scunny 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2qrsItFUug
8 minutes is the point of lift off !!!!!!!
- vincemunday
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
No new cases of Covid19 in Udon Thani for 7 days, excellent news
The forest was shrinking daily but the trees kept voting for the axe as its handle was made of wood and they thought it was one of them.
- sometimewoodworker
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
The data by province icon has only just started to be used so it’s not a case of still having it.Drunk Monkey wrote: ↑April 1, 2020, 11:13 amyes i did just pointed out IF its current in that the figures are accurate ?? .. also i commented on the Udon province still having the data by province icon.sometimewoodworker wrote: ↑April 1, 2020, 10:57 amTheDrunk Monkey wrote: ↑April 1, 2020, 8:31 amHeres the virus tracker by map ..not sure if this is up to date or being or being updated on a regular basis as Udon is still showing the data by province icon as are many other places.
https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en
Did you read the ticker that is scrolling at the top and is showing in my screen shot above?
Most likely it’s due to the source providing data using that format now.
Jerome and Nui's new househttp://bit.ly/NJnewHouse
In my posts all fees and requirements are the standard R&R but TIT and a brown envelope can make incredible changes YMMV.
In my posts all fees and requirements are the standard R&R but TIT and a brown envelope can make incredible changes YMMV.
- vincemunday
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Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
BREAKING NEWS: The PM is aware of long queues at Immigration and there is now a plan to grant automatic extension to visas for tourists who arrived in #Thailand after 1st March. More details soon. Here’s the announcement.
What we know so far:
It’s in the pipeline to grant automatic extension of stay
Proposal approved by cabinet on Tuesday
Waiting for announcement to implement it
This is for people with tourist visas who arrived after 1 March
Other people still need to go to Immigration
#ไวรัสโคโรน่า #coronavirus #COVID19 #Thailand
What we know so far:
It’s in the pipeline to grant automatic extension of stay
Proposal approved by cabinet on Tuesday
Waiting for announcement to implement it
This is for people with tourist visas who arrived after 1 March
Other people still need to go to Immigration
#ไวรัสโคโรน่า #coronavirus #COVID19 #Thailand
The forest was shrinking daily but the trees kept voting for the axe as its handle was made of wood and they thought it was one of them.
Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
Thanks for that update Vinny...I guess one still has to go in, and go thru the usual polava, with handsome photo, moola and all.?
Re: Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.
The Link below is to the Australian Government Department of Health site, which I would say, will be very accurate and very transparent. It has some identifiable points in it
Graphs 1: New and Cumulative Confirmed Covid 19 Cases by Date (Below)
1. I would suggest that this paints a typical picture of the trend of growth in case numbers for many countries in the west but not all, given varying social and demographic factors. Still the front start of the graphs is very typical for many of the other country graphs that I have seen, in that from the time of the first recording to the time the no of cases take off/show signs of increasing is between 7 – 8 weeks
2. Then at about Day 55 (8 weeks) after the first reported case, it moves into that upward steeper trend of increasing case numbers and becomes constant in its climbing trend. The top end of the graph(Day 70) tends to suggest that the rate of increase/climb of the case numbers is still at thee same pace (near constant) as from its start on Day 55 and that the Peak or Turning Point (the start of the decline in rate of increase in case numbers) has not yet been reached. Another 2 weeks should tell, one way of the other.
Chart 4: Total Confirmed Covid 19 Cases by Sex and Age (Below)
1. Calls into question, a statement by................that says Quote: This disease affects everyone "Who is not in the Age Group of 0 - 14. It clear does affect those under the age of 14 years old, as they can catch the Covid 19 under 14 years old. Whilst it doesn’t show the actual numbers, it does show that Children between 0 - 9 years old do catch the Virus, as do a number of young Adults between 10 – 19 years old
2. It also shows that a significant number of Adults between 20 -29 do catch the virus. I would speculate that this is due to them continuing their social habits and interaction, rather than self-isolating
pipoz4444
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-a ... se-numbers
Graphs 1: New and Cumulative Confirmed Covid 19 Cases by Date (Below)
1. I would suggest that this paints a typical picture of the trend of growth in case numbers for many countries in the west but not all, given varying social and demographic factors. Still the front start of the graphs is very typical for many of the other country graphs that I have seen, in that from the time of the first recording to the time the no of cases take off/show signs of increasing is between 7 – 8 weeks
2. Then at about Day 55 (8 weeks) after the first reported case, it moves into that upward steeper trend of increasing case numbers and becomes constant in its climbing trend. The top end of the graph(Day 70) tends to suggest that the rate of increase/climb of the case numbers is still at thee same pace (near constant) as from its start on Day 55 and that the Peak or Turning Point (the start of the decline in rate of increase in case numbers) has not yet been reached. Another 2 weeks should tell, one way of the other.
Chart 4: Total Confirmed Covid 19 Cases by Sex and Age (Below)
1. Calls into question, a statement by................that says Quote: This disease affects everyone "Who is not in the Age Group of 0 - 14. It clear does affect those under the age of 14 years old, as they can catch the Covid 19 under 14 years old. Whilst it doesn’t show the actual numbers, it does show that Children between 0 - 9 years old do catch the Virus, as do a number of young Adults between 10 – 19 years old
2. It also shows that a significant number of Adults between 20 -29 do catch the virus. I would speculate that this is due to them continuing their social habits and interaction, rather than self-isolating
pipoz4444
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-a ... se-numbers
Last edited by pipoz4444 on April 1, 2020, 9:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
That's one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind.
- jackspratt
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