Baht What up with Dat?????

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bumper
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » December 18, 2015, 9:10 am

Really they shouldn't have, for that very reason. Next few days should be interesting. I noted yesterday when the BOT stepped in, that is their job You could see where the Baht moved 17 satang then went back just about 36.06 each time.


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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » December 18, 2015, 6:56 pm

Things swung around today CNN at 1845 hours Baht 36.16 Market dropped 25 points to 1284

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » December 19, 2015, 10:00 am

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parrot
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by parrot » January 1, 2016, 6:18 pm

parrot wrote:The last thing I've ever been correct on is forecasting exchange rates.....be they Taiwan dollars, Japanese Yen, or Thai Baht. But just like some of those financial pundits who forecast a stock market collapse.....and lo and behold, someday they WILL be correct, and I assume famous........I'm going out on a limb.
I have nothing to back up my prediction....other than a continuing series of articles on the economy from outside the country, continued building beyond imagination.....not just in Udon....but virtually all over the country, the anticipation of AEC but the reality that AEC isn't the bull that many see it to be (see today's article about open skies being delayed), along with the military mentality in most all the heads of the government.
So, my prediction..........40 to $1 by the end of the year. I know, I know......I'll be wrong....but if I'm right, I'll be famous!!

I obviously missed my prediction.....but ending the year at 36.01 to $1 isn't all that bad, considering the rate was around 32.5 at the end of March 2015. Given the current state of affairs here, devaluations in China, Indonesia, and Vietnam since March, and the continuing rise in the dollar, I'm betting (not much) that even better days are ahead for the dollar/baht exchange rate.

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » January 2, 2016, 12:29 pm

Yo be honest I expected to see more then we got. Maybe things have to settle in after the Holidays. The Markets in the States closed lower. So unless something changes beyond the norm I expect to see the Sat down and the dollar up. It looks to me like the BOT is doing a good job holding the line right now.
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » January 7, 2016, 10:25 am

CNBC shows the dollar to the baht at 36.31 at the momnet. The set a well a the other Asian markets is dropping I assume the is is all about China's stopping trade for the fourth day in a row. It was only open for 15 mins this morning
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Zama » January 7, 2016, 5:25 pm

"Year of greater volatility: CIMB"
The Nation January 7, 2016 2:30 pm

Exporters and importers are urged to hedge against foreign exchange fluctuation, as the Thai baht may rise to Bt30 per US dollar or fall to as much as Bt40 during this year, said CIMB Thai Bank economist.

Amornthep Chawla, vice president and chief economost of the bank, noted that the US$/Bt exchange rate this year would be more volatile than 2015.
"There is a possibility that the baht could weaken or appreciate against US dollar. It’ll be tough for both exporters and importers," he said.
In the business-as-usual basis, CIMB expected the Thai baht to end the year at Bt38 per dollar.
The Thai baht could spike to Bt30 if oil prices further nosedive. Inflation would then be kept at a very low level and bars an increase in product prices. The appreciation is anticipated also if the US makes a U-turn by lowering rates again.
Meanwhile, the baht could weaken to Bt40 if Chinese yuan is weakened sharply while Thailand’s exports further slide for fourth year in a row. The possibility will be high also if oil prices spike due to tension in the Middle East.

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by rjj04 » January 7, 2016, 6:38 pm

Zama wrote:"Year of greater volatility: CIMB"
The Nation January 7, 2016 2:30 pm

Exporters and importers are urged to hedge against foreign exchange fluctuation, as the Thai baht may rise to Bt30 per US dollar or fall to as much as Bt40 during this year, said CIMB Thai Bank economist.

Amornthep Chawla, vice president and chief economost of the bank, noted that the US$/Bt exchange rate this year would be more volatile than 2015.
"There is a possibility that the baht could weaken or appreciate against US dollar. It’ll be tough for both exporters and importers," he said.
In the business-as-usual basis, CIMB expected the Thai baht to end the year at Bt38 per dollar.
The Thai baht could spike to Bt30 if oil prices further nosedive. Inflation would then be kept at a very low level and bars an increase in product prices. The appreciation is anticipated also if the US makes a U-turn by lowering rates again.
Meanwhile, the baht could weaken to Bt40 if Chinese yuan is weakened sharply while Thailand’s exports further slide for fourth year in a row. The possibility will be high also if oil prices spike due to tension in the Middle East.
Gee thanks CIMB. So useful to know that the Baht might go up, or it might go down. :roll: These exim players are supposed to buy butterfly spreads or something :razz:

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parrot
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by parrot » January 8, 2016, 5:42 pm

I realize we're all (most, anyway) amateurs when it comes to foreign exchange........but seems to me the time may be ripening for some devaluations in the region. But like I said, amateurs.

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by noosard » January 8, 2016, 6:25 pm

There is rumours the Chinese will devalue their money by 10% very soon
What that does in my direction (AUD) no idea
When there is rumours the AUD will devalue 10% as well

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by can123 » January 8, 2016, 7:33 pm

We live in exciting times rather than just the "interesting times" the Chinese curse would wish on us. It's exciting because nobody knows what is going to happen as the world economy has never been in this position before. There was a devaluation of the Chinese currency about six months ago but it dd not solve any problems for the Chinese then.

I am not clever enough to predict the future but, taking two actions, a rise in US interest rates and a devaluation in the Chinese currency, happening together will surely bring about devaluations of other currencies. Thailand has enough problems to justify a devaluation now and the external factors will make this happen sooner rather than later.

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » January 9, 2016, 6:15 pm

China may have opened the door for a currency war. One can only hope

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/82 ... erns-mount
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Zama » January 27, 2016, 11:15 am

Baht rate to U.S. Dollar seems to be going down a few stang everyday-Hopefully with Oil going up in the price of a Barrel, I guess it will climb. Your thoughts? :?

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » February 4, 2016, 5:47 pm

BOT counting on in country spending

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... lp-economy
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Twixies » February 8, 2016, 6:15 pm

bumper wrote:BOT counting on in country spending

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... lp-economy
And today they talk there no problem for the bath getting stronger, and disadvantage to its neighbors in terms of foreign exchange rates. ?????? what about the export
Money traders at Kasikornbank forecast the baht will move in a range between 35.35 and 35.65 to the dollar

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... onal-units

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » February 9, 2016, 5:01 pm

BOT says Baht is trading in range of other local currency, That something we have been disputing since this tread started. Some days I would say that is true others I just don't see it flowing that way. A weaker baht would be good for exports.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... onal-units
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Twixies » February 15, 2016, 1:17 pm

Well today i read the economy in Thailand is not so bad as many think :) , Even after all the problems they have/had they survived and is not so bad with a economy expanded 2.8% in 2015.

The future economy seems like as writing in the article the follow.

1. A weak baht will also support exporters’ revenue (current b35.67 to $)
2. The state planning agency forecasts 32.5 million tourist arrivals this year ( A raise on 8.8%) and Tourism revenue is forecast to rise 9.8%.
3. The economy continues to be supported by public sector spending, But it underscores the sluggishness of private demand.

Let me hear. Thailand hope for the future grown that tourist raising with more tourist spending and more support to SME and farmers.
Where is all this money coming from. The export is down, Investment is dropped by japan with 90%(Biggest investor in Thailand). China's slowdown and so on

Does this mean the crisis it over for Thailand or is this just a start of a future downward trend? Let me hear :)

Source http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... -8-in-2015

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » February 15, 2016, 6:13 pm

Well this is about as clear as mud

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... fed-policy

The answer is no it's not over not just for Thailand. But, worldwide, we are due for a downturn it's normal things go in cycles.

Where is the money coming from. A few months ago I would have said China, not so sure at the moment. I will say this every place I have ridden this year I have seen infrastructure projects going on. Funded by reserves they have a bunch I don't know.

Several years ago Parrot pointed out that the then current Finance Minister said it was OK to lie. So your guess is a good a anyone elses ;)
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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Twixies » February 16, 2016, 10:42 am

Bumper
i was asking about where all the money come from.

Maybe we know now =D> - http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... -borrowing
The Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) managed to borrow 265 billion baht in the October-December quarter of fiscal 2016, almost 68% of this fiscal year's planned deficit.

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Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by bumper » February 16, 2016, 4:05 pm

Looks lik4 a good answer to me. But, that being said hard to understand the baht gaining on borrowed money :D

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... rate-rises
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