Baht What up with Dat?????

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parrot
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by parrot » February 8, 2017, 2:34 pm

So....me, not knowing squat about how all these things work, but in a position to gain/lose from the exchange rate, wants to know:
Thanks for weighing in, JimboPSM. What it all tells me (who knows next to nothing about the issue) is that we can second guess the exchange rate all we like.......maybe it'll finally succumb....and maybe it won't. Hard to believe it's been 20 years since Thaitanic.



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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by papafarang » February 8, 2017, 6:43 pm

Heres a question, the whole thing of currency is gobbly gook to me :? apart from knowing a few basics, the rest of it is greek translated into latin and spoke with a Glasgow accent. first thing I don't get is the Fed reserve. seems like a countries finance is controlled by a private bank ?
now I was interested all these conspiracy theories about some wars were created to protect the $ and the gold standard was dropped because of a lack of actually having gold, and theres actually more gold sold every year than is produced. what I can't get my head around is the dollar is only paper, and if enough people handed dollars in then no way could America cover what they owe. to me sound like some shifty pyramid scheme.
I also read about the Chinese RMB.the debate of if it will become a full reserve currency. now most things I read said no chance. but one item I read , it was a comment from one economist. in it he said the problem with any predictions are that there only predictions, he reckoned he maybe able to predict the next couple of years, he also reckoned that anyone that say's they can know what it will be like in 15 years. his best guess is eventually there will be no choice. the Chinese will become so rich that the RMB will ooze out of china, there will be no choice, they have fixed their game, stack the money up and when they have enough to buy the planet, then they will just save up even more. two things Chinese love. they love gambling but they love to save too.
anyway just a ramble about my lack of knowlage of the black art of banking.
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by BigRick808 » February 9, 2017, 3:02 am

The FR is certainly shrouded in secrecy. As you can see, its power is enormous. The US (and probably British) shadow government along with the Fed, IMF and World Bank are in cahoots to manipulated the nations of the world and make them do the bidding of the Globalist. None of your nations are exempt.

Here's G. Edward Griffin on the subject https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dba9OY0QatU

The gold standard wasn't dropped because a lack of actual gold. It was dropped because they simply want to be able to print it without backing it. It's easier to manipulate fiat currency. But in a very big way, it is backed...backed by the US military and their ability to kick your A**

The paper dollars in circulation is only a small portion of the wealth of the US. Although, handing them all in would have an effect. But there no way for that to happen. That would have to be a concerted effort of all of the people in the world. And if it did, it would hurt all the people holding them, along with almost everyone else.

The Chinese are in deep sh**. Don't count on China.

If you want to invest in the stock market, for most people it's best to just buy the whole market. Put 10-15% in gold. Anyone who knows even the basics about investing knows gold isn't and investment in the same way the stock market is. It's an investment in the future--an investment in an uncertain future. That certainly always happens. Gold and silver are a hedge against inflation. When there's turmoil and stocks drop, gold and silver go up. I recommend silver. It has outperformed gold. Also rental property in first world nations if you'll be there to manage it. Play in the middle. Farmland is good if you want to work it. people will always need food and a place to live. In hard times of little money you can barter for food and a dwelling and come out ahead.

More gold can be sold every year than being produced is because there was gold produced the year before :D and the year before that, and so on....And much of it isn't physical gold. It's gold on paper.

I'm not trying to present myself as an expert. Just sharing what I know.

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by parrot » March 8, 2017, 7:18 pm

Interesting (distressing, too!) numbers for Thai GDP (World Bank)
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Twixies » March 11, 2017, 2:17 pm

parrot wrote:Interesting (distressing, too!) numbers for Thai GDP (World Bank)
I do Agree. Dont look good. There must be a reason why investors take money out on the stock marked and Hot money in the bond it on the way out to.

In bangkok post today we can read that Mr Somkid that not all is good with private investment, and plea for world bank to be fair and give them a good rating, so investment can come back to thailand and perhaps the government really is out of money, to help the economy right now.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... ir-ranking
The goal is for the country to crack the top 30 for business-friendly destinations and attract more investment.
he believes that the country has made great progress and deserves a higher ranking.

It is unacceptable if other nations that have just started [to curb investment constraints] earn a better score, Mr Somkid said.

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » November 19, 2017, 1:07 pm

Propping Up the Thai Baht: Their is no logical reason to spend Thai reserves to prop up the Baht, given the Thai economy is predominantly export orientated, along with a demand/need for tourists & property investment (Condo monies). So one would expect that the Thai the economy would do better, if the Baht was weaker, around the 35 plus mark. [-o<

Looking back a year to early 2016, the USD to other benchmark currencies, such as the AUD, CAD & GBP, appears to have weakened by around 5% , give or take. In parallel, the USD has weakened some 8.5% against the Thai Baht over the past 12 months (according to the XE Currency Charts). Alternatively the Thai Baht has gained 8.5% against the USD. 8-[

At an exchange rate of TB 32.8 to the USD, we are heading back to the average exchange rate, from December 2013 through to April 2015. A bit of historical info.

Looking back to April-May 2015, the Thai Baht weaken steeply, arguably for a specific event/circumstances, at that time. I cant see any similar or other significant circumstances contributing to a weakening of the Thai Baht, in the near future, so I think we are stuck in the 32's or even possibly less, for quite a while, much like we were in years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and part of 2015. :-k

Personally, I think the Thai Baht has just finally settled back to where it was, before the events of the past 30 months

Just my two cents worth

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Balthasar G. » January 18, 2018, 9:02 pm

Thai Baht manipulated? You don't say so!

BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation
In a rare move, the Bank of Thailand has threatened to investigate some financial institutions with operations in Thailand for possible involvement in baht speculation.

The central bank's announcement comes amid the baht's continued rally against the US dollar. The local currency, up nearly 2% versus the greenback in 2018, is now the second-best performer in Asia this year after the Malaysian ringgit.

The central bank has found that some financial institutions' behaviour could indicate involvement in baht speculation through heavy transaction volume, said Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob, who added that such practices have been done in favour of customers who may be speculating in baht ...
I hope I die in my sleep like my grand dad did, not screaming like his passengers

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by Stantheman » January 19, 2018, 2:47 am

Balthasar G. wrote:
January 18, 2018, 9:02 pm
Thai Baht manipulated? You don't say so!

BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation
In a rare move, the Bank of Thailand has threatened to investigate some financial institutions with operations in Thailand for possible involvement in baht speculation.

The central bank's announcement comes amid the baht's continued rally against the US dollar. The local currency, up nearly 2% versus the greenback in 2018, is now the second-best performer in Asia this year after the Malaysian ringgit.

The central bank has found that some financial institutions' behaviour could indicate involvement in baht speculation through heavy transaction volume, said Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob, who added that such practices have been done in favour of customers who may be speculating in baht ...
Nothing different, IMHO, then BOT doing it's thing to strengthen the Baht to bolster importers of high end products

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by parrot » July 13, 2018, 1:09 pm

JimboPSM.......if you're out there.......any comments about weakening of the Baht over the past 3 or so months?

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by choi choi » July 13, 2018, 3:44 pm

OH not another graph please! LOL

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by JimboPSM » July 13, 2018, 4:52 pm

parrot wrote:
July 13, 2018, 1:09 pm
JimboPSM.......if you're out there.......any comments about weakening of the Baht over the past 3 or so months?
I’m in the process of putting together a detailed response to a topic in the Open Forum “Emerging Asia hit by biggest exodus since 2008”, it covers why the THB has been weakening.

I’ve been on the road for four months this year and still am very much in catch up mode; however I can give a quick summary of what has been happening.

The backdrop is pretty simple - cash outflows from Thailand to the US.

These are the main reasons:

1. The Fed interest rate increase on 21st March resulted in a positive interest rate differential with the BoT for the first time since January 2008.

2. A sharp uptick in US Treasuries.


The above two reasons have resulted in:

a. Hot money outflows.

b. Carry trade money outflows.


3. The start of the unwinding of US Quantitative Easing (QE) - I believe this is having a big impact on the cash outflows; however as this is, to say the least, an extremely opaque area I can’t even give a ballpark figure for what it may be.

While we know that there were large cash inflows to Thailand as a result of QE, there is no research (that I have come across) that quantifies how much and in what form it arrived and, without knowing how much arrived, it is nigh on impossible to identify the QE outflows from the amorphous mass of all the other outflows.


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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » July 26, 2018, 11:36 am

Since the start of 2014, the That Baht has mostly been above TB 32 to the USD.It had one very small dip below 32 in the mid-end of 2014 and another larger dip down to 31 in the first half or 2018. Aside from these two dips (one really) TB 32 to the USD would appear to the the floor for the Thai Baht. Lets hope so.

Anything prior to April 2015 is insignificant, as it would appear that the current Thai Government/Ruling Power works in favor of those expats transferring money into Thailand.

Now if the American Political scene can just stabilize somewhat and their November elections don't through a Wobbly, then we (Expats) might just see the Thai Baht return to a comfortable TB 34 to the USD, by the end of this year.One can only hope so.

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by 747man » July 26, 2018, 12:31 pm

Anything prior to April 2015 is insignificant, as it would appear that the current Thai Government/Ruling Power works in favor of those expats transferring money into Thailand...........

NOT With the GBP They DON'T....IMHO !!

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » July 27, 2018, 12:32 am

747man wrote:
July 26, 2018, 12:31 pm
Anything prior to April 2015 is insignificant, as it would appear that the current Thai Government/Ruling Power works in favor of those expats transferring money into Thailand...........

NOT With the GBP They DON'T....IMHO !!
Maybe but I am only interested in and referring to the USD to Thai Baht exchange rate. Couldn't give two hoots about the GBP exchange rate.

The UK has its other Own issues that have impacted on (over the past 3 years) and continue to drag down its its currency value., such as, the UK is still tied to the EU and all its BS regulations, the UK has had week Political Leadership for a number of years, the UK immigration Policy is totally F. k.d and now you are stuck with the legacy of BREXIT. Markets don't see any immediate future in the UK Economy and or trading its currency.

Personally I think you have the wrong people (T May & Co) dealing with the EU on BREXIT and it is showing up in you currency worth against other countries and not just in the exchange rate with the Baht. The GBP has weakened against most major currencies over the past 3 years, not just against the Baht.

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by 747man » July 27, 2018, 11:12 am

Couldn't give two hoots about the GBP exchange rate......Stuff You're US$ As well,I Only ever use it when I'm Going over the bridge....

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » July 27, 2018, 5:41 pm

747man wrote:
July 27, 2018, 11:12 am
Couldn't give two hoots about the GBP exchange rate......Stuff You're US$ As well,I Only ever use it when I'm Going over the bridge....
Hi 747man

Despite what the US and other World Media try to portray, the US Economy is on a role, not quite on fire yet but will be soon, possibly by the end of this tear.

Company and Manufacturing sectors confidence is at a high, unemployment rates are low across all demographics & participation rates are up, labor shortages are starting to show up which indicates that wages should eventually rise (be it slowly), interest rates are slowly being increased by the FED (which is very important) and some people have more money in their pocket each week to spend for a variety of reasons. Not many economies have all their key economic indicators pointing in the right direction at the same time.

So the end or likely result is, that the Dollar Index will continue to rise from 94.8 back towards 100. I am not saying it will reach or go above 100, but the fact is that the higher the Dollar Index, the more likelihood that we living in Thailand will get more Thai Baht for each US Dollar we bring/sell.

At this time I would certainly bet on the US Dollar gaining strength over the next 6 -12 months, before I bet on any other Currency ding the same.

Whilst this may not effect all Expats in Thailand, it does impact on those being paid a US Pension or those trying to bring their US Dollar denomination into Thailand for purchases such as property and the like.

From a personal point, I would like a strong USD for the next 10 Months, so I need Trump/Republicans to win the US House and Senate in November to keep this US Dollar ball rolling. =D>

After May next year I don't give a Rats Arse \:D/


PS I can't swim, so I stay off Bridges

Cheers :lol:

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Last edited by pipoz4444 on January 8, 2020, 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » December 6, 2018, 12:18 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
July 26, 2018, 11:36 am
Since the start of 2014, the That Baht has mostly been above TB 32 to the USD.It had one very small dip below 32 in the mid-end of 2014 and another larger dip down to 31 in the first half or 2018. Aside from these two dips (one really) TB 32 to the USD would appear to the the floor for the Thai Baht. Lets hope so.

Anything prior to April 2015 is insignificant, as it would appear that the current Thai Government/Ruling Power works in favor of those expats transferring money into Thailand.

Now if the American Political scene can just stabilize somewhat and their November elections don't through a Wobbly, then we (Expats) might just see the Thai Baht return to a comfortable TB 34 to the USD, by the end of this year.One can only hope so.

pipoz4444
Well, I think it is going to fall short of my hopes [-o<

Buy the looks of it, that Baht is stuck in a rut, in the 32's, somewhere between 32.50 and 32.90 to the US Dollar.

With all that as happened in the last six months in the US and the recent House elections going to the Dem's, I fear that it will pretty much stay just under 33.00, for a while, until the next..................... :-k


The following was a forecast back in September 2018, which if half correct (i.e Forecast of Thailand’s economic growth this year to 4.6 per cent), will tend to hold the Thai Baht down under that 33.00 ,mark until the next ............... :-k

Extract THE UNIVERSITY of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has raised its forecast of Thailand’s economic growth this year to 4.6 per cent from an earlier estimate of 4.5 per cent after improved export, tourism and crop prices. It also expects the Bt40-billion spending in the 2019 general elections to spur the economy.

Thanavath Phonvichai, director of UTCC’s Centre for Business and Economic Forecasting, said export and tourism sectors have continued to expand from early this year thanks to a boost in global economy and increase in the prices of several crops, particularly paddy rice, sugar cane and corn. Private investment is also showing signs of recovery and public spending has increased, he said. UTCC reckons Thai exports will grow by 8.7 per cent and imports will rise by 12.6 per cent. The country’s current account is expected to have a surplus of US$34.6 billion (Bt1.1 trillion). Headline inflation is predicted at 1.2 per cent, while the currency is expected to hover at 31.50 to 33.50 per US dollar.

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by parrot » December 23, 2019, 5:21 pm


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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by pipoz4444 » December 26, 2019, 11:51 am

parrot wrote:
December 23, 2019, 5:21 pm
What goes up..........
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/18 ... l#cxrecs_s

The good thing is that with the exception of yesterday (briefly), the last time the TB broke through to under TB 30 to the USD was back in April 2013. It may have got very close these last few months, but hasn't found it easy to break that 30 mark. Keep those fingers crossed that it will ease back.

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Re: Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by RLTrader » December 26, 2019, 2:58 pm

Seems it is still going down or is that up :D

Screen Shot 2019-12-26 at 14.53.53.png

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