Ceasefire

General off-topic debates and discussions forum.
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TC
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Post by TC » August 16, 2006, 1:01 am

"Udon Sporting life" is now taking bets on this two horse race

2 to 1 on Valentine (my odds on favourite to get the last word in)

10 to 1 BKKStan (he will get pipped at the post unless he gets his whip out)



TC 8) :roll:
"De gustibus non est disputandum."

farang
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Post by farang » August 16, 2006, 1:41 am

TC wrote:
10 to 1 BKKStan ( unless he gets his whip out)

shhh,, VAL will throw the race if he hears about that lol ,he likes that sort of thing :lol:



joke!!! :wink:
www.that other forum.com

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Post by Stevo » August 16, 2006, 1:49 am

farang wrote:
TC wrote:
10 to 1 BKKStan ( unless he gets his whip out)

shhh,, VAL will throw the race if he hears about that lol ,he likes that sort of thing :lol:



joke!!! :wink:
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beer monkey
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Post by beer monkey » August 16, 2006, 3:17 am

well i hope we don't get any "blinkered" replies to this serious topic. Best not "Hoof around" with this one. i am sure there are a few member's "chomping at the bit" to make the next "Post"... :lol: :D :lol:

(apologies in advance to all concerned). :wink:
Can You Dig It Dug.?

valentine

Post by valentine » August 16, 2006, 6:53 am

Neigh, neigh, not from me. :lol:

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BKKSTAN
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Post by BKKSTAN » August 16, 2006, 8:11 am

TC wrote:"Udon Sporting life" is now taking bets on this two horse race

2 to 1 on Valentine (my odds on favourite to get the last word in)

10 to 1 BKKStan (he will get pipped at the post unless he gets his whip out)



TC 8) :roll:

:lol: :roll: :lol: I would agree with you,if I participated with the idea of winning or losing!To me that would be as stupid as trying to be the person with the most posts :!:

:lol: Maybe it is because I have never been a computer game player,or maybe it is because I have a serious and sincere personality :) :lol: I am working on not being so serious :wink: Where's that bookmaker :lol: :lol:

valentine

Post by valentine » August 16, 2006, 9:15 am

Just in case anyone is tempted , even at such short odds, to put money on me, I will caution, whenever I have seen a two horse race I have made a habit of backing the outsider, and over the years I have had some nice little earners. A little more seriously though, this does prove a point I made in the moderator debate that the members , with common sense and a touch of humour, can effectively defuse(moderate) even the most inflamed posting.
Having said that I think both horses have strayed so far "off course" that the race should be cancelled and all bets declared null and void, and anyone wishing to pusue the original topic, tune in to CNN or BBC where they will see, at least 10 times a day, this subject discussed by professional commentators, who will give their view, get paid for it, and still be wrong. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Post by thlboston » August 16, 2006, 9:32 am

Well yeah BKK I guess you could call me an optimist. Let me tell you why I feel the way I do, and, it is not based solely on wishful thinking.

First, I believe all the characters in the most recent drama (Lebanon,Hezbollah,Hamas,&Israel) will take this opportunity to reassess their positions.

Second, all the elected governments (Israel,Lebanon,Hamas) are relatively new having all been elected to office in the last 18months. They need to focus on domestic policy. Lebanon and the Palestinian areas have been hard hit. While blaming Israel makes for a nice slogan it is not a substitute for policy. Israel as well is dealing with domestic issues that have precious little to do with the wars with its neighbors. The Ohlmet gov't won a very slim plurality mostly because the Israel electorate wants their gov't to be more concerned w/issues such as health care and the like.

Third, as UN troops flow into the region I believe you will also see a more liberal flow of international aid flow into Palestinian (Hamas) hands. Say what we want about Hamas' stated goals of destroying Israel (reprehensible) they have always been very responsible in delivering needed social services. I believe they will continue to act accordingly. You cannot conduct both policies simultaneously, certainly not with UN troops in the region, so I feel they will focus on rebuilding their infrastructure. As for the Lebanese gov't, I think this will provide them with an opportunity to rid themselves of the likes of Syria & Iran. I see them as being a more moderate presence & one that should be given every opportunity to succeed.

Lastly, I do see Israel as accomplishing their defensive goals. History shows us that moves will be made against Israel every so often. It should be seen as no surprise this flare-up has occured w/a new Israeli gov't in place. The aim is to see how hard Israel will hit back. Israel has shown its enemies that they will pay a heavy price for any provocations. Again agree or disagree, Israel is a tough foe. So I feel the likes of Hamas & Hezbollah(the real loser in this) will temper thei actions for a while.

Of course 2 years is an arbitrary figure.

THL

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Re: Ceasefire

Post by BKKSTAN » October 1, 2006, 7:31 pm

BKKSTAN wrote:1)Will the ceasefire in Lebanon hold?

2)Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon?

3)Will Lebanon disarm Hizbollah?

4)Will Hizbollah return the 2 soldiers that sparked the conflict?

1)No,already,first day,Hizbollah fired 10 rockets or possibly mortars into Areas where Israeli troops are still deployed.Israel showed restraint in refusing to respond to either a provovation or some ''loose canons''!
2)Maybe,although they started withdrawing the least essential personel,I think they will eventually have to defend and attack.Depends how fast Iran and Syria are able to resupply Hizbollah versus the actual deployment of UN forces to replace the IDF!
3)Absolutely not,Hizbollah will take the time to rearm,regroup,recruit and further entrench themselves!They will dance around the UN and Lebanese while singing the new vanguard position of ''Victors of the first battles for Islamic extremism supremacy",while many blame Israel for the increase in recruitment!
4)Not without Israel releasing many prisoners from jails!It does not matter what the agreement for ceasefire mandates,Hizbollah will not honor the agreement in any form unless they see an advantage over Israel.They know that their lack of compliance will be excused if they can provoke Israel into striking back because the world community cares more about the immediate fear of a nuclear world war than it does about the longer term threat of suicidal individuals.Some actually believe they will be able to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons w/o military intervention!
They would have a better chance of winning ''Super Lotto'' !!
Oct 1,Israel completes its evacuation from Lebanon!Cease fire is still holding!Has the Hezbolah been disarmed?NO and refuse to be!Have the soldiers been returned?NO!
So,where is the outcry from those that are willing to jump on Israel?Perhaps they are really anti Israel :roll:

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