USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

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JimboPSM
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USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by JimboPSM » December 4, 2017, 2:26 pm

The thought that immediately sprang to mind after the Senate vote for tax cuts was this quote (frequently misattributed to Einstein):
Insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results ](*,)
When the burden of the tax cuts is added to the long term debt, the impact on GDP of abandoning trade agreements and exiting the Paris Accord along with the impact of the litany of other really dumb actions and proposals from Trump and his cabinet of obsequious fawning sycophants are all taken into account, the medium to long term prospects for the USD are not particularly attractive.

For those who might have forgotten the impact of the Bush tax cuts on the USD, and why (in my opinion) repeating them is sheer madness, here are some reminders:
  • US Dollar Index “TWEXMANL” from 1973:
    TWEXMANL-2017.11.24.jpg
  • Annual USD/THB rate since 1981:
    1981 annual USD-THB 2017.12.01.jpg
  • Annual USD/THB rate since 2001:
    2001 annual USD-THB 2017.12.01.jpg
The performance of the USD/THB rate with a fall of 2.3 Baht (6.7%) since Trump was elected, and that is despite there having been three Fed interest rate increases, should also be a cause of some concern or, at the very least, cause some pause for thought :-k
  • USD/THB rate – daily movement since 8 November 2016
    USD-THB daily 2017.12.01.jpg
  • USD/THB rate – daily movement as a percentage since 8 November 2016
    USD-THB daily% 2017.12.01.jpg
What should cause concern for members with a US asset / income base is that (in my opinion) the risk of the USD/THB rate returning to its pre 1997 rate of 25(ish) can no longer be viewed as the really remote possibility that it was just a few days ago and members would be well advised to consider planning for that possibility accordingly.


Note 1: USD/THB rates updated to Thailand close on 1st December 2017.

Note 2: US Dollar index TWEXMANL updated to 24th November 2017 (latest available data).

Note 3; USD/THB rate of 25(ish) - as everyone (especially every US senator) is in the dark about what the tax cuts actually are, my projection of 25(ish) is based on a broadly similar impact on the international value of the USD to that produced by the Bush 43 tax cuts (it ignores any impact that would be attributable to the Thai government).
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by fdimike » December 4, 2017, 6:52 pm

Just another example of smoke and mirrors "trickle down economics". It didn't work way back when "snoozy" was in the White House and it won't work now. More nonsense from a president who spends more time "tweeting" than actually getting anything of substance accomplished.
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by newtovillagelife » December 5, 2017, 12:51 pm

The rich get richer....Trump sure pulled one over his base..unless they are all rich that is.

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PAPA Z
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by PAPA Z » December 7, 2017, 11:59 am

fdimike wrote:
December 4, 2017, 6:52 pm
Just another example of smoke and mirrors "trickle down economics". It didn't work way back when "snoozy" was in the White House and it won't work now. More nonsense from a president who spends more time "tweeting" than actually getting anything of substance accomplished.
Since it seems you guys missed it, here are the things this President has accomplished for America, while “twitting”:
Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2017, giving one of the strongest inauguration addresses in American history.[1][2][3] His first bill signed as president was to allow retired general and Defense Secretary nominee James Mattis to be confirmed.[4] Trump had a very busy and productive first week, undoing Obama's legacy and instituting conservative executive orders.[5][6][7] He had already made a reasonably large impact by his 50th day in office.[8] President Trump accomplished many of his campaign promises by his 100th day in office, and he had already made significant progress by then, most notably by reducing regulations, enforcing American immigration laws, and appointing and having the Senate confirm his Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch.[9][10][11] In his first 100 days as president, Trump signed the most pieces of legislation of any president since Harry Truman and more executive orders than any previous president.[12] By his 100th day, it was clear that Trump had disrupted the liberal political establishment consensus.[13]

According to Reuters in late September 2017, President Trump had "begun to reshape American life in ways big and small."[14] He undid many of Barack Obama's executive orders and worked to undo his entire political legacy.[15] Not only did President Trump act as a disruptor, but he "set in motion an administration arguably more conservative than Ronald Reagan’s."[16]

A poll taken shortly before the 100th day of Trump's presidency indicated that 96% of his supporters would have voted for him again had an election been held that day.[17] A May 2017 poll showed Trump with 98% support among Republican military veterans and 54% overall.[18] Similar polls taken mainly around the same time gave the same results.[19] Additionally, a Pew Research poll indicated that over three-fourths of "white evangelical Protestants" approved of Trump's performance.[20] These people, as well as members of the Tea Party Movement,[21] did not believe the media and left-wingers in their war against President Trump. Evangelical Christians stood with President Trump, as seen in August 2017 when nearly every evangelical advisor to the president remained in their positions after Trump made politically incorrect comments related to white supremacism, while business and arts advisors resigned over the controversy and establishment Republicans criticized him.[22] A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll taken just before the one-year anniversary of the 2016 presidential election found that 82% of Trump's voters would vote for him again.[23]

It was reported on June 10, 2017, that President Trump had signed 37 bills into law, more than each of the previous four presidents, and the U.S. House had passed 158 bills, "making it the most productive in the modern-era," according to GOP House leaders.[24] Overall, the legislature was relatively productive by mid-2017.[25] An August 2017 Pew Research Center study found that the 115th Congress was more productive than any other Congress since 2007 and had the fifth highest count of substantive bills signed into law in the past 30 years.[26]

Social policy
See: Donald Trump achievements: Religious liberty, gender issues, and other social policies
Veterans
See: Donald Trump achievements: Veterans
Criminal justice, law enforcement, and other DOJ matters
See: Donald Trump achievements: Criminal justice, law enforcement, and other DOJ matters
Abortion
See: Donald Trump achievements: Abortion
Gun rights
See: Donald Trump achievements: Gun rights
Immigration, illegal immigration, and border security
See: Donald Trump achievements: Immigration, illegal immigration, and border security
Education
See: Donald Trump achievements: Education
Energy and environmental policy
See: Donald Trump achievements: Energy and environmental policy
Economic policy and labor
See: Donald Trump achievements: Economic policy and labor
Trade
See: Donald Trump achievements: Trade policy
Foreign policy
See: Donald Trump achievements: Foreign policy
Deregulation and government size
See: Donald Trump achievements: Deregulation and government size
Military, national security, and anti-terrorism
See: Donald Trump achievements: Military, national security, and anti-terrorism
Miscellaneous achievements
See: Donald Trump achievements: Miscellaneous achievements

http://www.conservapedia.com/Donald_Trump_achievements

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Lone Star
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Lone Star » December 7, 2017, 2:56 pm

Facts don't matter to LIBs and Haters, PAPA Z.

I used to enjoy reading JimboPSM's economic analysis when it was posted as an analysis without all the biased commentary. No more.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Twixies » December 7, 2017, 8:18 pm

I always enjoying reading JimboPSM's economic analysis's. Good explanation, and always good facts.

JimboPSM Do you have any explanation why the Thai Baht just getting stronger against all currencies.

In my view of point, im about to leave Thailand after 7 years here. Everything is getting more and more expensive, and for me its not worth living in a 3 world country, when some prices here in thailand, is above prices in my home country.

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PAPA Z
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by PAPA Z » December 8, 2017, 8:36 am

[quote="Lone Star"

Facts don't matter to LIBs and Haters, PAPA Z.”

I don’t particularly agree with every single thing President Trump says or does, or in the manner he sometimes reacts to all the fake news about him. However, in my opinion, the never Trumpers, the Trump-haters on both sides out there, and other lib cool aid drinkers, really have no clue why they actually hate Trump. America is in the best shape it has been in the past 8 plus years, after only barely one year of Trump in office. Those who hate him on the political side only do so because they cannot accept that he unseated a slew of political establishment candidates. The ones who hate him on the Dem/Lib side do so because they cannot accept that he beat Killary in the election, and if they agree that he is doing well for our country they will have to admit that they were wrong. You are correct in saying these idiots have no interest in facts.
Z

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by 86Tiger » December 8, 2017, 1:09 pm

Love’im or hate’im, he is doing exactly what he said he would in the campaign. In other words, he is doing exactly what his voters hired him to do.

If the trend continues he will be re-elected more enthusiastically than first time.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by pipoz4444 » December 9, 2017, 11:48 am

PAPA Z wrote:
December 8, 2017, 8:36 am
[quote="Lone Star"

Facts don't matter to LIBs and Haters, PAPA Z.”

I don’t particularly agree with every single thing President Trump says or does, or in the manner he sometimes reacts to all the fake news about him. However, in my opinion, the never Trumpers, the Trump-haters on both sides out there, and other lib cool aid drinkers, really have no clue why they actually hate Trump. America is in the best shape it has been in the past 8 plus years, after only barely one year of Trump in office. Those who hate him on the political side only do so because they cannot accept that he unseated a slew of political establishment candidates. The ones who hate him on the Dem/Lib side do so because they cannot accept that he beat Killary in the election, and if they agree that he is doing well for our country they will have to admit that they were wrong. You are correct in saying these idiots have no interest in facts.
Z
Agree PAPA Z and you must be referring to all the "Snow Flakes"

Whilst I am not an American citizen and I only watch the show on TV from the sidelines, I would say that I would rather have someone running the country that was decisive/ and spoke his mind (even to the point of being very blunt), for the people and new where he ultimately wanted to go with his policies/issues, even if it does always come out in a politically correct manner or even if it doesn't appease the Hollywood club.

Sure, Trump has made a few mistakes along the way so far, but to me, his direction looks to be much more better for the majority of US people who work, than that of the previous "SC", who in my humble view did "SFA" for the American worker for his 8 years.

PS: I just cannot grasp how the Leftist's and some Politicians, can be more worried/concerned about people who have illegally entered the country (regardless whether they work or not) and in particular the gangs who run around peddling drugs & commit crimes (such as MS-13 etc) than they are about the legitimate Americian citizen.

My simple view is that, if you enter a country legally through its immigration programmes (and so become a citizen), then you have the same rights and protection of the Law of the land, as others born in that country. However, if you choose to jump the queue or the fence as it might be, then you don't get those rights and you don't get the the benefit of the Law of the land, and you go back to the end of the Queue.

I only wish our Ozzie Politicians would take a harder line on some of the similar issues that impact on Australia.

Just my two cents worth

pipoz4444

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by PAPA Z » December 9, 2017, 2:31 pm

pipoz4444
A very astute observation! Believe me, most Americans don’t understand it either.
The reality is that the liberal left has lost their minds, and just can’t see, or just don’t want to accept what is truly going on in the world.
This mindset among these folks is Obama’s legacy and “gift” to our country, as during his 8 years of liberal policies, this mob was in high school and uni, being taught how to destroy our country from within by the liberal left educators he allowed in the midst of our educational institutions.
Z
pipoz4444 wrote:
December 9, 2017, 11:48 am
PAPA Z wrote:
December 8, 2017, 8:36 am
[quote="Lone Star"

Facts don't matter to LIBs and Haters, PAPA Z.”

I don’t particularly agree with every single thing President Trump says or does, or in the manner he sometimes reacts to all the fake news about him. However, in my opinion, the never Trumpers, the Trump-haters on both sides out there, and other lib cool aid drinkers, really have no clue why they actually hate Trump. America is in the best shape it has been in the past 8 plus years, after only barely one year of Trump in office. Those who hate him on the political side only do so because they cannot accept that he unseated a slew of political establishment candidates. The ones who hate him on the Dem/Lib side do so because they cannot accept that he beat Killary in the election, and if they agree that he is doing well for our country they will have to admit that they were wrong. You are correct in saying these idiots have no interest in facts.
Z
Agree PAPA Z and you must be referring to all the "Snow Flakes"

Whilst I am not an American citizen and I only watch the show on TV from the sidelines, I would say that I would rather have someone running the country that was decisive/ and spoke his mind (even to the point of being very blunt), for the people and new where he ultimately wanted to go with his policies/issues, even if it does always come out in a politically correct manner or even if it doesn't appease the Hollywood club.

Sure, Trump has made a few mistakes along the way so far, but to me, his direction looks to be much more better for the majority of US people who work, than that of the previous "SC", who in my humble view did "SFA" for the American worker for his 8 years.

PS: I just cannot grasp how the Leftist's and some Politicians, can be more worried/concerned about people who have illegally entered the country (regardless whether they work or not) and in particular the gangs who run around peddling drugs & commit crimes (such as MS-13 etc) than they are about the legitimate Americian citizen.

My simple view is that, if you enter a country legally through its immigration programmes (and so become a citizen), then you have the same rights and protection of the Law of the land, as others born in that country. However, if you choose to jump the queue or the fence as it might be, then you don't get those rights and you don't get the the benefit of the Law of the land, and you go back to the end of the Queue.

I only wish our Ozzie Politicians would take a harder line on some of the similar issues that impact on Australia.

Just my two cents worth

pipoz4444

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by RLTrader » December 9, 2017, 5:37 pm

:lol:

pipoz4444
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by pipoz4444 » December 9, 2017, 6:10 pm

Poos

It should have said " even if it doesn't always come out in a politically correct manner or even if it doesn't appease the Hollywood club"

pipoz4444

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by ytrewq » December 11, 2017, 2:12 am

To OP:

If the objective is to fatten the rich and redistribution of wealth upwards, then the Einstein quote is wholly inappropriate, isn't it? Quite the contrary, actually.

The more appropriate quote would be from P. T. Barnum: "There's a sucker born every minute". It would apply to all those who believed (or voted for) the pretexts and promises promoted by the GOP charlatans in the first place.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by JimboPSM » December 14, 2017, 3:02 pm

Although it comes from a different perspective, this is an extract from an analysis/prognosis for the USD from Bloomberg that provides further food for thought:
Traders See No End to the Dollar’s Pain in 2018
By Lananh Nguyen ‎12‎ ‎December‎ ‎2017‎ ‎23‎:‎00 Updated on ‎13‎ ‎December‎ ‎2017‎ ‎20‎:‎05

For the almighty dollar, 2017 has been nothing short of abysmal. Next year might be even worse.

Despite a recent bounce back, analysts and investors say the greenback could lose more ground against the euro and yen as the prospect of strong economic growth and tighter monetary policy outside the U.S. more than offsets higher interest rates at home. The dollar is down more than 7 percent versus the world’s major currencies this year, the most in over a decade.

The economic growth “we’re seeing in Europe, emerging markets and the rest of the world will likely cause the dollar to sell off again,” said Erin Browne, the head of asset allocation at UBS Asset Management, which oversees about $770 billion. When it comes to what central banks in Europe and Japan might do, “there’s very little priced in.”........

........ Of course, even dollar bears acknowledge there’s a good chance that Trump’s tax cuts could give the greenback a fillip in the first half of the new year. But few see it lasting into the second half -- even if the Fed keeps raising rates.

Analysts see the greenback losing ground to 13 of the world’s 16 most-widely traded currencies through the end of next year........

Full article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... in-in-2018
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by tamada » December 14, 2017, 8:55 pm

Lone Star wrote:
December 7, 2017, 2:56 pm
Facts don't matter to LIBs and Haters, PAPA Z.

I used to enjoy reading JimboPSM's economic analysis when it was posted as an analysis without all the biased commentary. No more.
All the biased commentary? Really? So, if they were edited and had "Trump - 45", would they be suddenly more acceptable? Does having Scum - 45" make them any less FACTUAL? Or maybe you'd be happier with a dose of Kellyanne's Award Winning "alternative facts."

Or is is it much easier now just to pigeonhole him with those other alleged LIBs and Haters? At least they all seem to have a much, much thicker skin.

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