Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

This section is for general money matters, finance and investing.
Post Reply
bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 7, 2013, 9:37 am

OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I hold a little bit of stock now in the SET,(15,000 Baht) it's earned 4.6% and it pay dividends. But I bought when it was in the 1200 range.

So far to me that looks like a good buy range. But, things are nuts right now, it is really hard to have clear idea of what will happen. Short term charts are good. However, there to many outside factors going on to even take a wild guess.

So I'm holding off with any additional purchases, it's not a race. I made the mistake of chasing stocks up the last time. That's not a good idea. I did OK then as just about everything went up. I don't think that will be the case this time. If the U.S. does default it will hurt the world not just the US. If it doesn't you still have the taper on the table. Thailand ha down grade it's GDP several times over the last few months. Budget surplus remember who is saying that . May cost me a bit in the future. But. I'm waiting for the dust to settle.

I will use the time to d find the best companies I can in the Mai, that have the potential for an upgrade to the SET an pay dividends.


I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 7, 2013, 4:27 pm

I really believe we will see 1200 or less on the SET again.
Breakingnews >
WB cuts East Asia forecasts

Published: 7 Oct 2013 at 13.24
Online news:

The World Bank lowered its forecasts for East Asia's developing countries this year and next, and said the region must boost efforts to ensure financial stability ahead of interest-rate increases in advanced economies.

Developing East Asia will probably expand 7.1% in 2013 and 7.2% in 2014, the Washington-based lender said in a report on Monday, down from April predictions of 7.8% and 7.6% respectively. China may grow 7.5% in 2013, lower than an April forecast of 8.3%, it said.

"The risks to the global recovery from the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal deadlock in the United States, the impact of the withdrawal of monetary stimulus from the advanced economies, an abrupt slowdown of investment in China (CNGDPYOY), and unrests in the Middle-East remain prominent," the World Bank said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update on Monday.

The Asian Development Bank cut its forecasts for emerging Asia this year and next last week, as a slowdown in China and India is compounded by concern that the United States Federal Reserve's impending reduction of its record stimulus will drive away investors. The Fed last month said it wants more evidence of an economic recovery before paring its US$85 billion-a-month bond buying program, surprising analysts who had predicted a US$5 billion cut to purchases of Treasuries.

Rate Increases

The first partial US government shutdown in 17 years as House Republicans failed to agree on a budget with Senate Democrats and President Barack Obama would probably shave 0.1 percentage point from growth if it lasts a week, according to a Bloomberg survey, with the amount accelerating the longer the closing lasts.

The US Treasury's cash balance will be depleted no later than Oct 31 and "possibly quite a bit sooner," according to a note dated Oct 5 from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. In the event of a missed principal or interest payment, there is a possibility that fund redemptions might broadly increase due to investor concern, prompting liquidation of Treasuries by money market mutual funds, it said.

Policy makers in developing East Asia need to be ready to respond to a steady increase in interest rates in advanced economies, and step up their efforts to maintain financial stability, the World Bank said on Monday.

Market Volatility

"Some of the headwind will be coming from the international economy, and that largely is the tapering of the unconventional monetary policies especially in the Untied States," Bert Hofman, the World Bank"s chief economist for East Asia and Pacific, told reporters in Singapore. "It will mean an increase of global interest rates for which countries would need to prepare. And they need to prepare for potential financial market volatility in the process."

The largest developing nations for the first time have the worst market opportunities as optimism for stronger growth shifts to the US and Europe, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll last month. India fared the poorest, followed by Brazil, Russia and China, a worldwide poll of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers showed.

Japan's new strategy to revive growth, also known as Abenomics, could increase Japanese investment in the region and offset the impact of tapering on capital inflows in the region, the World Bank said.

China's economy slowed last quarter as growth in manufacturing and transportation weakened, and increases in business-investment and real estate revenue eased, a survey by New York-based China Beige Book International showed last month.

Policy Buffers

While investment growth is moderating in economies such as Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, consumption and resilient remittances helped boost the Philippines in the first half of the year, the World Bank said. Excluding China, the region may grow 5.2% in 2013 and 5.3% in 2014, it said.

"Reducing reliance on short term and foreign currency denominated debt, accepting a weaker exchange rate when growth is below potential, and building policy buffers to respond to changing global liquidity conditions are some of the ways that can help countries be prepared," Mr Hofman said.

The region covered in the bank's report includes China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Timor-Leste, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and other island economies in the Pacific.

part-timer
udonmap.com
Posts: 89
Joined: December 15, 2008, 7:15 pm

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by part-timer » October 13, 2013, 10:53 am

Normally at any point in time there are several grey clouds on the horizon and there are always potential black swans out there and today is no different.

The catastrophic consequences of a US default should be well understood by the politicians in Washington and letting that happen would be politically damaging and frankly 'unAmerican' (shock horror :shock: ) so you would guess that it would not come to that. Although, the markets will no doubt feel the effects of any close calls and brinkmanship along the way.

The 2 trillion Baht infrastructure bill looks set to be passed which would mean a massive domestic boost. I found a good article on this and it is worth reading to the end.
http://bit.ly/164vzJI

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 16, 2013, 7:48 pm

Well the SET dropped to 1464 today, a few months ago I bought some stocks when the SET was in the mid 1200 range, those stocks a up 10%.

My plan was to wait for the FED to actually taper, that doesn't seem likely at the moment. I was hoping for knee jerk reaction and seeing the 1200's again then buy a bit more.

So the debt ceiling isn't helping my plan. That being said the problems that I saw in Thailand are still there. at the moment I just don't trust charts. I find them to be very helpful in normal times. But, these are not normal times.

I find it almost impossible to make reasonable decision at the moment. Thailand cut a rice deal with China. But, what was the price agreed upon? We know that the high speed train was a part of the agreement. Or at least that is how I understand it. I guess there was a rubber sale in the deal as well.

Farmers planted rice like crazy with a guareented price per ton. Does that price exceed the market price for rice?

Subsidizing farmers is nothing new America has done it for years. People have to eat and farmers have to earn a living. But, has this went to far?

Is the Government getting the trillion whatever loan? That may not be good for Thailand. But, it darn sure will be for the market.

There have been so many protests now I don't even know what the current one is about?

Lets see which farmers have blocked off roads so far.

Rice
Rubber
Corn.

To many wild card for me to get any further in the game. I will just let my paltry 15K sit there for the time being :lol:

anyone seeing things differently then I ?
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

part-timer
udonmap.com
Posts: 89
Joined: December 15, 2008, 7:15 pm

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by part-timer » October 18, 2013, 6:24 pm

bumper wrote:Well the SET dropped to 1464 today, a few months ago I bought some stocks when the SET was in the mid 1200 range, those stocks a up 10%.

My plan was to wait for the FED to actually taper, that doesn't seem likely at the moment. I was hoping for knee jerk reaction and seeing the 1200's again then buy a bit more.

So the debt ceiling isn't helping my plan. That being said the problems that I saw in Thailand are still there. at the moment I just don't trust charts. I find them to be very helpful in normal times. But, these are not normal times.

I find it almost impossible to make reasonable decision at the moment. Thailand cut a rice deal with China. But, what was the price agreed upon? We know that the high speed train was a part of the agreement. Or at least that is how I understand it. I guess there was a rubber sale in the deal as well.

Farmers planted rice like crazy with a guareented price per ton. Does that price exceed the market price for rice?

Subsidizing farmers is nothing new America has done it for years. People have to eat and farmers have to earn a living. But, has this went to far?

Is the Government getting the trillion whatever loan? That may not be good for Thailand. But, it darn sure will be for the market.

There have been so many protests now I don't even know what the current one is about?

Lets see which farmers have blocked off roads so far.

Rice
Rubber
Corn.

To many wild card for me to get any further in the game. I will just let my paltry 15K sit there for the time being :lol:

anyone seeing things differently then I ?
The government has paid over the market price for rice and has left them with a huge deficit. The cost of this scheme is probably seen as worth it to Puea Thai as it will help them to secure future votes, (which some might say is the purpose of the program in the first place). In other words the loss that they will make was likely pre-calculated and part of the plan.

With the massive majority that Puea Thai have in the lower house and the changes they are pushing through to the senate plus he fact that the 2 trillion loan bill will mean a pay day for vested interests, you could assume that it is highly likely that the bill would be passed.

Also, you say that these are not normal times, but "normal"in compared to what? In fact we have seen 2 years of relative stability in comparison to the previous years tumultuous events.

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 18, 2013, 7:46 pm

I was speaking Of the U.S. prior to an agreement not Thailand.

Like it or not the US does factor in the investment community. My understanding on the Mega loan was challenged in court. it passed. That being said and this being Thailand where it took so long to issue 3-G licenses that 4-G was already out.

I expect a continuing fight of the Mega loan.

Solar power program 6 % participation. yet so far we have not a got license.

I will hold for 1200, can't lose what I don't invest.

Where did the flood money go?

Wherever it went didn't seem to help much.

Things are always about a clear as mud in Thailand. At least that has been my experience. I made money last time through. I'm making money now. I didn't chase then SET then and I'm not going to do it now

I will wait and see what happens next time the magic word taper is mentioned. Sure has had an effect every other time it was mentioned. That brought the set in 1200 range. I see no reason it won't do it again. It's not a race and I'm in no hurry.

You may see it differently more power to you.
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 19, 2013, 5:00 pm

What the BOT has to say about recent US events. Capitol out flows. It also say it has enough foreign reserves so no 97 repeat. To me that would be the best of two worlds. The SET coming back to earth and no emergency for Thailand. My belief is the real value of the SET is in the 1200 range.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 17463.html
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 19, 2013, 5:19 pm

Got to be extra careful here in investing, sometimes the mud is very hard to see through.
BANGKOK, 18 Oct 2013 (NNT) - Former president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), Sompon Kiatpaiboon, indicated that Thailand is suffering from what he called 'Corruption Disease' while another senior economist showed his concerns on the public debt and the Government's lack of spending discipline.

Speaking at a seminar held by the Thailand Future Foundation and the Economics Reporters Association, Mr. Sompon described the Corruption Disease as influential factor disabling people in positions of power to see anything beyond personal benefits and gains. He said if the disease is left unattended, the nation would not be able to move forward.

Meanwhile, former Commerce Minister Narongchai Akaraseranee stated that although Thailand is not in its prime stage, it still performs well. He viewed the nation's dependency on the global economy as the cause of its drawback. He explained that whenever the international economy fluctuates, so will Thailand's economic status.

He also raised another concern: the public debt, which is now in a combination of old and new ones that the nation is unable to wash off as its administration does not have the spending discipline.


-- NNT 2013-10-18
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

part-timer
udonmap.com
Posts: 89
Joined: December 15, 2008, 7:15 pm

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by part-timer » October 21, 2013, 10:16 am

bumper wrote:I was speaking Of the U.S. prior to an agreement not Thailand.

Like it or not the US does factor in the investment community. My understanding on the Mega loan was challenged in court. it passed. That being said and this being Thailand where it took so long to issue 3-G licenses that 4-G was already out.

I expect a continuing fight of the Mega loan.

Solar power program 6 % participation. yet so far we have not a got license.

I will hold for 1200, can't lose what I don't invest.

Where did the flood money go?

Wherever it went didn't seem to help much.

Things are always about a clear as mud in Thailand. At least that has been my experience. I made money last time through. I'm making money now. I didn't chase then SET then and I'm not going to do it now

I will wait and see what happens next time the magic word taper is mentioned. Sure has had an effect every other time it was mentioned. That brought the set in 1200 range. I see no reason it won't do it again. It's not a race and I'm in no hurry.

You may see it differently more power to you.
Good stuff. If that is your strategy then I commend you for sticking to it. I too think the SET is good value at that range. Of course we are not mentioning the one big event that could easily bring us back to that range very quickly and could happen soon.

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 22, 2013, 7:22 am

Well headed my direction. But I don't believe this alone will bring down to my buy level. Unless it gets violent.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... nesty-bill
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 22, 2013, 10:39 am

Maybe good things will come to those who are patient:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-2 ... lines.html
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

User avatar
KHONDAHM
udonmap.com
Posts: 2428
Joined: November 15, 2009, 3:07 pm

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by KHONDAHM » October 23, 2013, 12:27 am

OT, but of note:

BitCoin recovered beautifully from the hit it took after the closure of Silk Road. It is now testing the all-time high set in April during the Cyprus crisis. That means the April high was not a fluke and it is likely that may become the floor as BTC continues to gain acceptance and value as a bonafide global currency. I also think that is a signal it could be a true direct investment like other currencies or gold.

Time to start paying it some attention.

http://www.coindesk.com
Enjoy this site much more by adding idiots to your ignore list (Friends & Foes tab).
http:\\www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/ucp.php? ... &mode=foes

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 24, 2013, 7:45 am

This is not a good sign for Thailand, to much of this I will have to downgrade my buy in point.
Local news Politics Regional Security Crimes Transport Health Sports Asia World Investigative report Breakingnews > CREDIT Bad bank loans...

Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews ... ns-advance. View our policies at http://goo.gl/9HgTd and http://goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved.
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 25, 2013, 8:26 am

BOT urges Thai's to invest abroad, wonder what they know that we don't? Anyway fits nicely into my plan. Markets go up an down just the nature of the beast. I'm up 19% on the one I bought in the 1200 range, The key is it pays dividends. If the market goes back to the 1200's I I will lose the 19% more then likely.
Breakingnews > BoT urges companies to invest abroad Published: 25 Oct 2013 at 00.00 Newspaper section: Business Thai outbound direct investment for the first eight months is estimated at...

Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews ... est-abroad. View our policies at http://goo.gl/9HgTd and http://goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved.
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

part-timer
udonmap.com
Posts: 89
Joined: December 15, 2008, 7:15 pm

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by part-timer » October 25, 2013, 10:07 am

bumper wrote:BOT urges Thai's to invest abroad, wonder what they know that we don't?
[/quote]

Jesus bumper. :shock:

This is basic economics and the regional FDI especially is an area where Thai companies should be looking to now especially with the advent of the AEC.

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 25, 2013, 11:31 am

Boy nice title not sue deserve it though. LOL

Actually that is not common for the BOT to make statements like that.

I've posted my thoughts. Would really like know your views beyond a wise crack

So where do you see the SET going for the next year?

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 25, 2013, 5:18 pm

GDP form an Original 5% down to 3.7% in stages. The real wild card out there is possible Political unrest. We have had a very stable time on that aspect for the past few years. I have no idea where that is going.

As to the GDP it seems to just keep going down.


Breakingnews >
BoT drops 2013 growth forecast to 3.7%

Published: 25 Oct 2013 at 16.40
Online news:
The Bank of Thailand has slashed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2013 to only 3.7%, from a previous forecast of 4.2%, Paibul Kittisrikangwan, assistant governor for monetary policy, said on Friday.

The central bank also lowered its economic growth forecast for
2014 to 4.8%
, from a previous projection at 5%, he said.

Mr Paibul said the revision was based on the longer than expected slowdown in domestic consumption and private investment and a delay in the government’s budget disbursement.

He projected the economy would improve next year on the back of export growth, an increase in private investment and domestic consumption, while pressure from inflation would be minimal.

Risk factors that could derail economic expansion included the delays in the government’s investment in the planned megaprojects on water resources and flood management and infrastructure overhaul, the unsettled problem of debt ceiling in the US that could affect global money market and the possibility that the US would scale down its quantitative easing measures, which would trigger foreign capital outflow, he said.

Mr Paibul also expected a current account deficit of about 6.8 billion baht, or 1.8% of GDP, this year, due to a large amount of gold imports for profit speculation, boosted by the declining global gold prices.

The deficit figure is projected to increase in 2014 as more imports of capital goods to serve the demand of the government’s infrastructure development megaprojects are expected, he said.

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 29, 2013, 8:35 am

It looks like the Government is sitting on a powder keg right now, the Amnesty bill will more then likely go through, now that the Red shirts have backed off. We just may see some movement south in the SET before the taper.
Breakingnews >
1,500 police sent to rubber protests

Published: 28 Oct 2013 at 16.03
Online news:

Ten companies of around 1,500 police officers have been mobilised to contain rubber protests over fears that rallies by farmers may spread beyond Bang Saphan district in Prachuap Khiri Khan province, provincial police chief Pol Maj Gen Thanet Sunthornsuk said on Monday.

The police reinforcements are from Phetchaburi, Ratchaburi and Samut Songkhram provinces.

Pol Maj Gen Thanet said there were reports that some people who were angry about the rubber farmers' highway blockade would protest against the growers. Therefore, precautions must be taken to prevent a clash between the groups, he said.

The rubber growers, meanwhile, held a press conference to repeat calls for government to respond to their demands.

They also asked local people to join them in their protest on Phetkasem Highway at the intersection in front of the Srinakhon tambon hospital after learning that police are preparing to disperse them after 6pm.

The protesters have opened a bank account to take donations from people wishing to support their cause.

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 29, 2013, 8:56 am

The opposite side of the coin: Your guess is as good as mine. Udon mentioned specifically.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-2 ... uzzis.html

Thailand biggest debt sale in a decade, this will be interesting to see what happens.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101150017
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Starting a thread for investing in the Thai SET

Post by bumper » October 30, 2013, 6:29 pm

Lowest growth since 2010
Business > News ECONOMY Exports to rebound in Q4 but miss target Published: 30 Oct 2013 at 00.00 Newspaper section: Business Thailand is poised to end the year with export growth of...

Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... iss-target. View our policies at http://goo.gl/9HgTd and http://goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved.
What Bloomberg has to say about the current situation:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-3 ... ngkok.html
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

Post Reply

Return to “Money, Finance & Investing”