Trump and the Stock Markets

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Lone Star
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 10, 2018, 8:06 pm

Udon Map wrote:
December 10, 2018, 7:58 pm
Lone Star wrote:
December 10, 2018, 7:13 pm
Just more proof that the stock markets alone are not a true/complete indicator of the health of the economy.
Sorry, that's not going to fly. When the stock market's going up, it's an example of steady winning with Trump's leadership; but when it's pointed out that the market is doing worse under Trump than it did under Obama, the answer is that it's not a true indicator of the health of the economy? Um,... no. You can't change the rules in the middle of the game. If you actually believed that the stock market is not a true indicator of the health of the economy, you wouldn't have cited it as an example of steady winning.
I have never ever believed or stated that the stock market is the sole indicator of an economy's health. If you are making that claim, you need to back it up.

I never even taught that bullsh*t foolishness in the classroom. Anyone who knows anything about economics and the stock market knows this.


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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by newtovillagelife » December 10, 2018, 9:05 pm

Lone Star wrote:
December 10, 2018, 8:06 pm
Udon Map wrote:
December 10, 2018, 7:58 pm
Lone Star wrote:
December 10, 2018, 7:13 pm
Just more proof that the stock markets alone are not a true/complete indicator of the health of the economy.
Sorry, that's not going to fly. When the stock market's going up, it's an example of steady winning with Trump's leadership; but when it's pointed out that the market is doing worse under Trump than it did under Obama, the answer is that it's not a true indicator of the health of the economy? Um,... no. You can't change the rules in the middle of the game. If you actually believed that the stock market is not a true indicator of the health of the economy, you wouldn't have cited it as an example of steady winning.
I have never ever believed or stated that the stock market is the sole indicator of an economy's health. If you are making that claim, you need to back it up.

I never even taught that bullsh*t foolishness in the classroom. Anyone who knows anything about economics and the stock market knows this.

How does a Gym Teacher teach anything in the classroom.

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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 15, 2018, 5:37 pm

Lone Star wrote:
December 8, 2018, 6:35 am
Retesting a bottom. Buying opportunity.
Yes, that's what happens. However, anyone unfamiliar with the stock market would not recognize it or be aware of market history. There is almost always a pullback and subsequent bottom after a prolonged steep climb.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/raymond ... arket.html

40-year veteran of Wall Street with a knack for market timing calls a bottom in stocks
KEY POINTS
- The stock market has reached a bottom after a tumultuous 10 weeks that’s seen the S&P 500 in and out of correction territory, Raymond James’ Jeff Saut says.

- The U.S. economy is not going to slow as much as expected and earnings will be strong next quarter, he adds.
As some stock market advisors and economists have stated, the uncertainty of trade negotiations with China and trying to predict any Fed interest rate hikes are based on unknowns. Compare these unknowns to the reality of the components that drive the US economy -- jobs, business expansion and investment, business capital goods orders & shipments, increased consumer purchasing power and optimism, lower taxes, fewer regulatory barriers and better trade agreements with the US's closest trading partners -- Canada and Mexico. All of these reflect continued GDP growth.

In other words, the strength of the total economy -- the economy's market drivers -- will eventually result in another stock market climb.

Some recent history should remind everyone of two things:
1. Any stock losses on paper as a result of the so-called "Great Recession" of 2008 have been recovered plus massive gains since.

2. Anyone who cheers for the failure of the US stock market and US economy is wishing doom across all markets worldwide. Remember 2008? One need only look at what small daily declines in the US market do to the stock markets in other countries.

STEADY WINNING.
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by newtovillagelife » December 16, 2018, 7:25 am

Lone Star wrote:
December 15, 2018, 5:37 pm
Lone Star wrote:
December 8, 2018, 6:35 am
Retesting a bottom. Buying opportunity.
Yes, that's what happens. However, anyone unfamiliar with the stock market would not recognize it or be aware of market history. There is almost always a pullback and subsequent bottom after a prolonged steep climb.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/raymond ... arket.html

40-year veteran of Wall Street with a knack for market timing calls a bottom in stocks
KEY POINTS
- The stock market has reached a bottom after a tumultuous 10 weeks that’s seen the S&P 500 in and out of correction territory, Raymond James’ Jeff Saut says.

- The U.S. economy is not going to slow as much as expected and earnings will be strong next quarter, he adds.
As some stock market advisors and economists have stated, the uncertainty of trade negotiations with China and trying to predict any Fed interest rate hikes are based on unknowns. Compare these unknowns to the reality of the components that drive the US economy -- jobs, business expansion and investment, business capital goods orders & shipments, increased consumer purchasing power and optimism, lower taxes, fewer regulatory barriers and better trade agreements with the US's closest trading partners -- Canada and Mexico. All of these reflect continued GDP growth.

In other words, the strength of the total economy -- the economy's market drivers -- will eventually result in another stock market climb.

Some recent history should remind everyone of two things:
1. Any stock losses on paper as a result of the so-called "Great Recession" of 2008 have been recovered plus massive gains since.

2. Anyone who cheers for the failure of the US stock market and US economy is wishing doom across all markets worldwide. Remember 2008? One need only look at what small daily declines in the US market do to the stock markets in other countries.

STEADY WINNING.
Glad you are not my financial advisor. No more quantitative easing, interest rates rising, slowing global growth, increasing US debt....time to take a pause.....

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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 16, 2018, 8:49 am

Lone Star wrote:
December 11, 2018, 12:43 pm
Giggle wrote:
December 11, 2018, 10:56 am
. . .

Britain and the US appear to be headed in opposite directions. \:D/
According to the head of the IMF, Christine Legarde, the US is headed north and in the opposite direction economically than everyone else in the world.



Just past the 4 minute mark, Legarde shares the IMF's prediction for US GDP growth -- 3.7% GDP. This means that even global bankers are admitting that Trump has more than doubled US economic growth in under two years in office. The rest of the world is either flat or falling behind.

To look at this and understand it in dollar figures, 3.7% GDP growth in a $22 Trillion economy is $700 BILLION-plus. The economy is now growing at a rate of over $700 BILLION annually.

UK GDP is $2.6 Trillion ... France GDP is $2.5 Trillion ... Canada is $1.6 Trillion ... Do the math. That annual growth is approximately 25% of the GDP of the UK and France and 33% of the GDP of Canada. Turkey, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland have GDP under $1 Trillion. The US annual GDP increase is almost equivalent or surpasses all four of them. HUGE. HUGE. HUGE.

I know the reason this is happening.

STEADY WINNING. Image
White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett reports on data that shows strong consumer consumption that is as high as 4% over the previous year. Hassett was asked about the stock market's relation to the economy. He explains the disconnect between the strong economy and the stock market.



https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www ... urrent.pdf

Looks like Mr. Hassett and Ms. Legarde of the IMF agree. She must be aware of the drivers because she acknowledges the strong US economy despite the current stock market pullback.

Yeah, it's STILL STEADY WINNING.
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by glalt » December 16, 2018, 9:41 am

International trade is far more complicated than many people believe. Smaller third world countries need some protectionism to support their home industries. As they become more prosperous, they must be forced to become more competitive and reduce their tariffs. The US gave China many advantages and now it has become unfair trade. China is no longer a poor country but they have become used to unfair trade methods. Fortunately the US has finally got a president who is willing to tackle this problem. Other wealthy countries also still use those advantages and it is past time for those practices to change. With the astronomical US debt, it should be obvious the the US can no longer afford to subsidize foreign manufacturing in wealthy countries. Unfortunately some segments of the US economy are feeling the pain but they need to bite the bullet and look froward to better days ahead.

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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by newtovillagelife » December 16, 2018, 10:29 am

glalt wrote:
December 16, 2018, 9:41 am
International trade is far more complicated than many people believe. Smaller third world countries need some protectionism to support their home industries. As they become more prosperous, they must be forced to become more competitive and reduce their tariffs. The US gave China many advantages and now it has become unfair trade. China is no longer a poor country but they have become used to unfair trade methods. Fortunately the US has finally got a president who is willing to tackle this problem. Other wealthy countries also still use those advantages and it is past time for those practices to change. With the astronomical US debt, it should be obvious the the US can no longer afford to subsidize foreign manufacturing in wealthy countries. Unfortunately some segments of the US economy are feeling the pain but they need to bite the bullet and look froward to better days ahead.
Running a chronic trade deficit is what any country must do if it aims for its currency to serve as a global reserve currency.

Econ 101.

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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 16, 2018, 12:30 pm

glalt wrote:
December 16, 2018, 9:41 am
International trade is far more complicated than many people believe. Smaller third world countries need some protectionism to support their home industries. As they become more prosperous, they must be forced to become more competitive and reduce their tariffs. The US gave China many advantages and now it has become unfair trade. China is no longer a poor country but they have become used to unfair trade methods. Fortunately the US has finally got a president who is willing to tackle this problem. Other wealthy countries also still use those advantages and it is past time for those practices to change. With the astronomical US debt, it should be obvious the the US can no longer afford to subsidize foreign manufacturing in wealthy countries. Unfortunately some segments of the US economy are feeling the pain but they need to bite the bullet and look froward to better days ahead.
You've summarized the situation very well, glalt.

True friends and allies should be willing to have fair trade -- if not free. No one with manners allows a true friend to pick up the tab forever or complain when the friend can't or won't do it anymore. Past leaders didn't have the balls to say "enough." Past leaders were willing to lose American jobs and companies over it and swallow a deficit too. The last guy even told us that a magic wand was necessary to bring those manufacturing jobs back and make trade deals. I guess some people DO have a magic wand.



The current US economy is the answer.
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 27, 2018, 9:36 am

First holiday reports from Mastercard indicate strong consumer spending and high optimism among consumers. So far, spending in the 2018 holiday season shows a 5.1% increase, which translates into $850 BILLION.

That is the strongest holiday increase in spending in six years. Oh wait. That't two years of Trump and Obama's entire second term. But I'm sure that Obama will take credit for this surge too.

And then ... biggest one-day gain in the stock market's history.

Image

Could there be volatility going forward? Sure, but this is more proof that there are market drivers that affect the stock market. On this day, Main Street and Wall Street were both winners.

Image Image Image
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Udon Map » December 27, 2018, 12:20 pm

Makes me start to wonder whether you're actually deceiving yourself, or just spinning everything to support your position.
Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 9:36 am
First holiday reports from Mastercard indicate strong consumer spending and high optimism among consumers. So far, spending in the 2018 holiday season shows a 5.1% increase, which translates into $850 BILLION.
But if the statistics are coming from MasterCard, this increase could just as easily translate into a huge increase in consumer debt, far from a positive indicator for the economy.
Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 9:36 am
And then ... biggest one-day gain in the stock market's history.
Well, that, of course, is irrelevant. It's not the absolute point gain, it's the percentage. The higher the market goes, the higher the average daily move will be in points. That's just a function of the math. So, for example, in 1970, when the DJIA closed at 838.92 at the end of the year, obviously there wasn't going to be a thousand point rise in a single day. So stick with the statistic that has actual meaning, the percentage change for the day.

The DJIA (the average that was up more than 1,000 points), was up 4.98% for the day. Good, yes, but hardly the best one day rise in history. Here are just a few of the ones that better December 26, 2018 by more than double:

● October 13, 2008, up 11%
● October 28, 2008, up nearly 11%
● October 21, 1987, up 10.15%

and there are more.

Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 9:36 am
Could there be volatility going forward? Sure, but this is more proof that there are market drivers that affect the stock market. On this day, Main Street and Wall Street were both winners.
On this day, yes, completely agree. But only time will tell if the roughly 15% decrease in the market in the last three months is merely a correction in a bull market, as you have suggested, or the beginning of a bear market.

And before you go dumping on Obama's performance in this regard, let's not forget that the market has been on a steady uptrend since 2009, a few months into Obama's first term. So performance under Trump was a continuation of a trend which started at the beginning of Obama's first term, that is until a few months ago.

The market has now wiped out all 2018 gains, and is back down to the same level it was at during the first week of October, 2017.

So while your enthusiasm is nice to see, let's stick with the facts as told by the numbers, and not spin things to suit your desired narrative.

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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 27, 2018, 12:55 pm

Udon Map wrote:
December 27, 2018, 12:20 pm
...

So while your enthusiasm is nice to see, let's stick with the facts as told by the numbers, and not spin things to suit your desired narrative.
I have reported facts of the day, and my enthusiasm is for that alone.

You have played "what if." As all Trump Haters do.
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 27, 2018, 1:00 pm

Udon Map wrote:
December 27, 2018, 12:20 pm


The DJIA (the average that was up more than 1,000 points), was up 4.98% for the day. Good, yes, but hardly the best one day rise in history. Here are just a few of the ones that better December 26, 2018 by more than double:

● October 13, 2008, up 11%
● October 28, 2008, up nearly 11%
● October 21, 1987, up 10.15%

and there are more.
I posted a NUMBER, not a percentage.

You're trying to win an argument I wasn't making ... like another Hater I see here often. What was the NUMERIC rise on those dates you posted? Let's compare numbers to numbers, which is what I posted.
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 27, 2018, 1:07 pm

Udon Map wrote:
December 27, 2018, 12:20 pm
But if the statistics are coming from MasterCard, this increase could just as easily translate into a huge increase in consumer debt, far from a positive indicator for the economy.
Consumers don't acquire debt during the holidays unless they are optimistic. Go back and look at the greatly reduced spending during the holidays when consumer sentiment was not high.
So while your enthusiasm is nice to see, let's stick with the facts as told by the numbers, and not spin things to suit your desired narrative.
And just exactly what the hell did you do?

1. Insinuated that I did not post facts.

2. Compared percentage increases to numeric increases.

3. Completely ignored the fact that consumers don't automatically spend during the holidays -- debt or not.

You're full of bullshiggity, UM. You're pulling "what ifs" out the air to suit your narrative. Yes, you are.
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 27, 2018, 1:15 pm

Largest NUMERIC gains in the US stock market.

TOP FIVE
1 - 2018-12-26 - +1,086.25 FACT
2 - 2008-10-13 - +936.42
3 - 2008-10-28 - +889.35
4 - 2018-03-26 - +669.40
5 - 2015-08-26 - +619.07
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 27, 2018, 1:56 pm

Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:15 pm
Largest NUMERIC gains in the US stock market.

TOP FIVE
1 - 2018-12-26 - +1,086.25 FACT
2 - 2008-10-13 - +936.42
3 - 2008-10-28 - +889.35
4 - 2018-03-26 - +669.40
5 - 2015-08-26 - +619.07
IMG_6138-2.jpeg
While the number is a fact it isn't impressive as the market is still down 4,000 from October (-15%) and is only a +4% correction of the Trump crash
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 27, 2018, 2:53 pm

sometimewoodworker wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:56 pm
. . .

the market is still down 4,000 from October . . .
Duh.
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by newtovillagelife » December 27, 2018, 4:29 pm

If the moron(POTUS) would keep his mouth shut, things might improve.

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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 27, 2018, 6:08 pm

Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 2:53 pm
sometimewoodworker wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:56 pm
. . .

the market is still down 4,000 from October . . .
Duh.
So do explain why a fall of over 5,000 the last thousand from the 22nd of December, caused by Trump and his Treasury Secretary which then is reduced to only a 4,000 point fall is some kind of amazing achievement
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Lone Star » December 27, 2018, 7:06 pm

sometimewoodworker wrote:
December 27, 2018, 6:08 pm
Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 2:53 pm
sometimewoodworker wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:56 pm
. . .

the market is still down 4,000 from October . . .
Duh.
So do explain why a fall of over 5,000 the last thousand from the 22nd of December, caused by Trump and his Treasury Secretary which then is reduced to only a 4,000 point fall is some kind of amazing achievement
Please point out where I said it was an amazing achievement -- other than largest ever one-day surge.

I have been consistent in showing how the market drivers of the economy affect the stock market. I did the very same in my post.

You're blinded by your hate for Trump.
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Re: Trump and the Stock Markets

Post by Udon Map » December 27, 2018, 7:24 pm

Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 12:55 pm
Udon Map wrote:
December 27, 2018, 12:20 pm
So while your enthusiasm is nice to see, let's stick with the facts as told by the numbers, and not spin things to suit your desired narrative.
I have reported facts of the day, and my enthusiasm is for that alone.

You have played "what if." As all Trump Haters do.
Not at all. You've cherry-picked facts and presented them as evidence that Trump is doing a great job. I merely suggested that there's another way of viewing those same facts. I haven't challenged the accuracy of the facts you presented.
Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:00 pm
Udon Map wrote:
December 27, 2018, 12:20 pm
The DJIA (the average that was up more than 1,000 points), was up 4.98% for the day. Good, yes, but hardly the best one day rise in history. Here are just a few of the ones that better December 26, 2018 by more than double:

● October 13, 2008, up 11%
● October 28, 2008, up nearly 11%
● October 21, 1987, up 10.15%

and there are more.
I posted a NUMBER, not a percentage.
Indeed, you did. I don't dispute your facts; they're accurate. I did point out, however, that the absolute numbers aren't really significant. It's the percentages that really matter. Simple, basic math.
Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:07 pm
Udon Map wrote:
December 27, 2018, 12:20 pm
But if the statistics are coming from MasterCard, this increase could just as easily translate into a huge increase in consumer debt, far from a positive indicator for the economy.
Consumers don't acquire debt during the holidays unless they are optimistic. Go back and look at the greatly reduced spending during the holidays when consumer sentiment was not high.
Completely agree. It is an indicator that consumers are optimistic. Do you disagree with the proposition that a large increase in consumer debt is likely detrimental?

Udon Map wrote:
December 27, 2018, 12:20 pm
So while your enthusiasm is nice to see, let's stick with the facts as told by the numbers, and not spin things to suit your desired narrative.
Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:07 pm
And just exactly what the hell did you do?

1. Insinuated that I did not post facts.
No, I never challenged the factual accuracy of anything in your post. I did, however, question the significance of those facts.
Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:07 pm
2. Compared percentage increases to numeric increases.
Exactly. As I said, it's basic math. The significance of the numerical increase is less and less as the base number increases.
Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:07 pm
3. Completely ignored the fact that consumers don't automatically spend during the holidays -- debt or not.
Again, I don't dispute your facts. However, the level of household/consumer debt is significant for the health of the economy; and if the increased spending translates into tons of additional consumer debt, that's going to be a real problem.
Lone Star wrote:
December 27, 2018, 1:07 pm
You're full of bullshiggity, UM. You're pulling "what ifs" out the air to suit your narrative. Yes, you are.
No, not at all. We don't know what happened to consumer debt during the holiday season, and won't for a while.

I see that you, as usual, seem to be intolerant of people/ideas that are not in agreement with yours, and resort to name-calling and the like. IMO our single biggest problem now is the lack of ability to engage in civil conversations with people with whom we disagree. Calling me a Trump hater may make you feel better, but it does little to advance the civil exchange of ideas and opinions which is essential to a democracy.

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