If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

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BangkokButcher
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by BangkokButcher » November 9, 2011, 10:12 am

mally wrote:My plans are to land at swampy Dec 16, fly straight to udon for a few days, I know UT is dry, but whar's the reaistic forcast for swampy in 5 weeks time ? Then down to Pattaya for 5 days, on to Hua Hin for 5 days, as both these places are south of BKK and on the coast, are they in the way of the flood water ? Also, what's the real situation with food (not forgetting drinking water & beer) ? After that I'll be going to Phnom Penh, then intended to visit BKK for 5 days in Jan before flying home. In BKK I mainly stay in the Sukhumvit area, which I read has not been flooded, but I do worry about sanitation & food supplies.
All this is planned between Dec 16th & Jan 10th, will it all be over by then as TAT says, or is the situation not so clear ?
Mally,

here is a regularly updated map of how Bangkok is currently looking with the floods:
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8& ... 8a39456d14

I live on Sukhumvit in Bang Na (Bangkok), work in Bangphli (Samut Prakan) and I am out daily visiting clients all over Bangkok almost every day of the week, and so far, I/we have been relatively unaffected (luckily) by any of the floods currently hitting some areas. Other than logistic disruptions due to road closures, it's pretty much business as usual for most of Bangkok.
The floods are currently predominantly affecting the Northern Districts of Bangkok, although they are moving in on both the West and the Eastern sides of the city.
No centrally located areas of Bkk have, at this time, been 'badly' affected. So at the moment, most tourist areas are perfectly ok to visit other than a number of places close to the river adjacent to Thonburi.

Here is a regularly updated tourist map showing the locations of affected tourist destinations in Bkk:
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=210 ... urce=embed

Don Mueang Airport, the old international airport, has been closed until further notice due to flooding. The two domestic airlines operating from Don Mueang have temporarily switched their operations to Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok has not been affected by the floods and is operating as per usual. The airport has considerable flood protection measures in place and officials are monitoring the situation closely. This could change overnight though.

All other airports in Thailand are currently open and operating normally.

MRT/BTS is currently operating normally and only some bus/train routes have been slightly affected by the floods.

The problems with food/water/beer/soft drink shortages are being dealt with, but will take time to rectify, no one really knows for sure how long it will take though - the key is trying to tone down the panic buying that is now happening on a daily basis - no suppliers/manufacturers can increase orders to the demand required in such a short space of time.
Imported products are now starting to make up for the shortfalls.
Also logistics are a real headache due to Distribution Centres being located in the affected areas, but most companies are trying to relocate them.

To summarise, the floods are expected to hit much of Bangkok over the coming weeks, there are lots of theories being presented in the media, but to predict the future is very difficult at this stage.
The bottom line is that no one really knows how things will be in 1 week, so planning that far in advance will be very difficult.

Best plan for you would be to check back in for an update nearer the time.
But with an alternative holiday plan prepared (more time in Udon maybe :)) as if the situation get's worse in Bangkok, then areas such as Pattaya and Hua Hin will be even worse then they are now for supplies - due to the locals heading out of town again to avoid the floods.



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pompui
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by pompui » November 9, 2011, 11:06 am

Thanks for the update Bangkokbutcher :D ,am due back in Bangkok (sukhumvit area) at the end of the month so will also report updates on food/water/empty shelves at 7/11 at that time.Hoping, as before, the area will be as dry as a nun's fanny :shock: as the next high tide is due in the next few days. 8)

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BangkokButcher
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by BangkokButcher » November 9, 2011, 11:55 am

pompui wrote:as the next high tide is due in the next few days. 8)
Too true, and let's face it, this could change everything :?

mally
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by mally » November 10, 2011, 12:05 am

Thanks for the info lads, as ever, despite all the bickering on here, you can still get some good info when you need it.

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Jed
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by Jed » November 10, 2011, 7:54 am

Excellent updates, Sean.

Look forward to more when convenient.

Keep your powder dry.

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fredythehound
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by fredythehound » November 10, 2011, 8:23 pm

now hear this now hear this, baht devalues may 2012 i wont say i told you so

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pompui
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by pompui » November 11, 2011, 9:36 am

fredythehound wrote:now hear this now hear this, baht devalues may 2012 i wont say i told you so
Cheers for the tip and any ideas of numbers for the next Thai lottery on 16th,ta vely much 8)

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maaka
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by maaka » November 12, 2011, 10:50 am

Mally, sorry for late reply, but have not been able to log in for five days, but if you google there is quite abit of info about recent floods, over where your friend lives, who is asking for assistance..was some flash flooding etc etc so it might not be all a wives tale

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dake333
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by dake333 » November 12, 2011, 5:36 pm

dake333 wrote:
davecryan wrote:
stattointhailand wrote:
fredythehound wrote:The baht has been strong over the last 7 years but i think the wider flood problems looks sure to devalue
Yeah right ....... this morning 49.5 now 48.9 :-" :-" :-"
Its all relative....its bad here but there are greater financial problems in UK, US and Euroland ( all going down the tubes faster than Thailand )..thats my answer..Ive been thinking the same as you for 3 years :( :( :cry:
Going down the tube faster? Incidentally, do realize that Thailand has over 200 billion in foreign reserves and is rated 11th highest of all countries .Going down the tube,highly unlikely.
Well now it may disappoint you to learn that the value of the Thai Baht is not solely determined by manipulation and whim of Thai government and financial institutions. Consider that Thailand is now the second largest economy in Southeast Asia, next to Indonesia. Consider that the GDP grew 21% in 2009 and 8% in 2010. Take a look at the great upswing in bond prices and the high growth of Thai exchange traded funds. The strength of the Baht is influenced by these things. Thailand is considered to be an emerging industrial nation and it is kicking-ass.

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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by jackspratt » November 12, 2011, 6:05 pm

dake333 wrote: Thailand is considered to be an emerging industrial nation and it is kicking-ass.
Do you mean submerging industrial nation, and kicking flippers? :D

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JimboPSM
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by JimboPSM » November 12, 2011, 9:47 pm

dake333 wrote:.... Well now it may disappoint you to learn that the value of the Thai Baht is not solely determined by manipulation and whim of Thai government and financial institutions....
I’m afraid I have to completely disagree.

From years of observing currency movements I have absolutely no doubt that the value of the THB is being, and has been, increasingly “managed” by the BoT (early indications are that the election of a new government has made no difference).

From my observations the correlation between actual movements of the THB and other currencies in relation to major economic events, both domestically and internationally is by far the weakest of any of the currencies that I follow.

For a long time I used to try and convince myself that the THB moved in accordance with the interaction of “free market forces” and the “Monetary Policy” of the BoT and try and find ways of rationalising the movements; eventually however the sheer number of times that the THB has moved in a contrary manner to my assessment (which could be incorrect, but I believe not) of how it should have moved left me no other alternative but to conclude that the value was being “managed”.

As Sherlock Holmes said:
.... when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism (and economic suicide)

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KHONDAHM
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by KHONDAHM » November 15, 2011, 3:44 am

Brace yourselves for what happens after the floods are long gone. Expect to increase your household budget by at least 15% next year as businesses recoup their losses and extra supply-chain costs related to the flood. This flood ain't free... :mad:
Enjoy this site much more by adding idiots to your ignore list (Friends & Foes tab).
http:\\www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/ucp.php? ... &mode=foes

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fredythehound
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by fredythehound » November 15, 2011, 5:02 am

the devalue is nigh

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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by lepidoptra » November 17, 2011, 12:50 pm

I read this morning that the USA government has pledged $10 million dollars to the Thai government to help with the problems the floods have caused. Considering reports of how good the Thai economy is wouldn't the money be better spent at home. I also wonder just how much of the money will actually reach the people affected.
Still it'll help towards keeping the Thai Baht strong against the US dollar.
I'm worried the UK may follow suit :shock: [-( :-"

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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by cali4995 » November 19, 2011, 8:24 am

i don't think they've even begun to scratch the surface as far as getting things back to normal is concerned.
literally hundreds of foreign companies at dozens of industrial estates flooded-out. and why is the water
taking so long to recede? because canals / drains are blocked? i mean there are minor flooding issues
every year? are the sandbag dikes doing more harm than good? why was this year so completely catastrophic? :-s

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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by Shado » November 19, 2011, 11:30 am

cali; I think part of the problem is the gradient between Bangkok and the gulf. It is just so flat that the water moves quite slowly. The stormwater drainage system is full and the floodwater is just waiting for gravity to do it's job. The average ground surface elevation of Bangkok is less than 2.0 meters above mean sea level. Many areas are just slightly above msl. If the gradient was steeper the water would flow faster and empty out quicker.

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BangkokButcher
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by BangkokButcher » November 21, 2011, 6:27 pm

Here's my current take on things:

The water would flow better if they just opened up the big bags that are currently blocking the large masses of the water - no doubt about it.

The water level is receding in areas - very true, but looking into things, it looks more like the water is just shifting positions, and therefore, thinning out.
Yes, some is moving into the rivers, but an awful lot is just moving South, East and West.

If we take a look at the information available to us, whether accurate or not

http://www.gamling.org/ - Is supposed to be a 'live' update of the flooded areas
http://203.150.230.27/FloodMap/index.html - again, supposed to be updated live

They all seem to say the same thing, there is much more water around the Wastern (Thonburi) side running down towards Samut Sakhon now, again, on the Eastern (Lat Krabang/Suvarnabhumi) side there seems to be a lot of small flooded areas now, although, none that I have seen in urban areas - but they are there, just off the beaten track slightly.

I have no idea whether to go with the 'Bangkok will be better in a few weeks' option or not really, there is just way too much conflicting information being distributed around here.

Much of the surrounds are still hand built 'sandbag' cities, some high, some low, very little consistency at all, so the locals are still prepared, and again, they are also starting to complain about the information they are being fed.
All you have to do is change channels on TV to get differing views of what will/will not happen..

I've had a few friends/colleagues who have actually been caught out and ended up stuck where they were for a number of days. None of whom actually enjoyed the experience one little bit.

Even the most prepared, were not ready for the unexpected...
Things like dead bodies of humans and animals getting tangled on your gate post must be pretty unnerving to say the least.
The foul smelling stench of the tepid water mixing with raw sewage - and no electricity to power the fan to at least help and blow the smell away. Of course, closing your windows made things even worse.
Then if you can survive issues such as the above along with no toilets, rotting food in your fridge/freezer, black mould appearing around your house/room, good luck to you - what's the other option?

Get out, get burgled and return to en empty house...!?!
I suppose at least you and your family are safe that way.

All in all, I can really understand why some of the locals are trying to damage the 'big bag' walls in some areas - they just want some normality back in their lives. I guess you could also ask why they don't just get the hell out, well, most of those that do, end up with nothing left in their house when they return.
Ultimately, they are hanging around to protect their assets - can't blame them really...

I'm still home and dry by the way, and I hope it will stay that way...

I had also better add, that I am not exaggerating any notes above, all true, but of course, please don't think it's like this all over Bangkok, it's not, the above probably accounts for a very, very small percentage of the area involved.
Central Bangkok itself, is still more that fit for travelling around - the usual applies - just be careful...

Most of Bangkok is still 'business as usual' and supply shortages are now beginning to get ironed out, most import, the logistics of getting supplies to the areas in need seems to be getting better by the day.

(Disclaimer - all of the above could change at any time!)

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maaka
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If Bangkok goes under - Thailand Floods

Post by maaka » November 22, 2011, 1:53 am

thanks BB for the useful updates..
it seems to me that just one good storm would make things a hell of alot worse . with the predicted change in weather patterns, this could be an annual event in years to come..

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