Storm Clouds May Be Forming Again

Post by **fdimike** » February 17, 2012, 9:49 pm

The following 2 links provide some interesting reading of what MAY be coming our way in the not too distant future..

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_ ... 8Ae03.html

Thailand’s Troubles Show Democracy’s Shaky Future: Pankaj Mishra
2012-02-13 00:00:07.0 GMT (Bloomberg View)

Post by **greatsnake** » February 18, 2012, 1:13 am

Storm clouds for the Thais but good news for the farlangs. $\:D/$

Post by **parrot** » February 18, 2012, 2:05 am

"good news for the farlangs"

Really? In the nearly 16 years we've been here, I've only questioned our decision to move here a few times.....airport seizure, government house takeover, 2006 coup, and at the top of the list, last year's upheaval in Bangkok that included Udon. With Udon practically the home base for the red shirt movement, I can't see how any further problems can bode well for those of us living here. If ever there was a time I'm glad to have a plan B in my hip pocket, it's now. All the turmoil from last year is still smoldering behind the scenes............and on top of it all, there's the thorny succession issue that the country will have to deal with probably sooner rather than later.
If the ?good news for falangs? is somehow related to the exchange rate, I'm afraid that hasn't been the case in the past 6 years.

Post by **Bandung_Dero** » February 18, 2012, 5:49 am

parrot wrote:"good news for the farlangs"

If the ?good news for falangs? is somehow related to the exchange rate, I'm afraid that hasn't been the case in the past 6 years.

Agreed, just more wishful thinking!

Post by **fdimike** » February 18, 2012, 6:39 am

I think the issue of the exchange rate is still up in the air. With LOS now joining the money laundering black list along with N Korea, Iran etc foreign investment and the stability of the Baht may become questionable. Add to that the enormous FIDF trillion Baht debt which has now been conveniently dumped on the BOT and we may see foreign currencies rise against the Baht. Infaltion is up, the damage from the inept handling of the floods has still not been addressed fully (although they had a grand "pat each other on the back" 10 million baht party to celebrate their "success") and they need to borrow huge amounts of money to fullfill their dream agendas and flood prevention plans. Couple it all with more political upheaval, and a huge unchecked drug problem and you have the makings for a financial calmity.

Post by **trubrit** » February 18, 2012, 6:41 am

The footnote to the article says more to me than the article it self.
John Cole and Steve Sciacchitano spent several years in Thailand while on active duty with the US Army. Both were trained as Foreign Area Officers specializing in Southeast Asia and graduated from the Royal Thai Army's Command and General Staff College. They are now retired and the views expressed here are their own.
.

Post by **fdimike** » February 18, 2012, 6:45 am

And your point is?

Post by **trubrit** » February 18, 2012, 6:47 am

fdimike wrote:And your point is?

graduated from the Royal Thai Army's Command and General Staff College. They are now retired and the views expressed here are their own.

Post by **parrot** » February 18, 2012, 6:56 am

With the possible exception of people like Soros, all the amateur foreign exchange predictions are just that. When the country almost imploded last year, the exchange rate hardly changed (if it did at all).....likewise with the coup and airport takeover. I'd be the first to welcome a return to the rates that we enjoyed post 1997, but I don't count on it. Wasn't it just a short time ago that people were forecasting a return to 25 (or worse) to $1?
Even if exchange rates were to go out of whack, if the end result were a country in utter turmoil, would that be a good thing for expats? I like to think that we'd be immune from any effects (as we have been at least in the past 40 years), but again, who can predict what a country ruled by ultra-reds/yellows/blues would mean for our future?
Again, my insurance policy includes a plan B.

Post by **FrazeeDK** » February 18, 2012, 7:07 am

veddy interesting.. very detailed with obvious deep military connections between the two former FAO's and Thai military folks. More detrailed info on the "war room" and foiled coup in May 2006 than I'd ever heard about. It all rings quite true..

Post by **fdimike** » February 18, 2012, 7:13 am

truebrit wrote

graduated from the Royal Thai Army's Command and General Staff College. They are now retired and the views expressed here are their own.

As is yours, mine and just about anyonelse on the this forum. It might surprise you to learn there are a lot of well educated people out there with a lot of expertise in this part of the world (other than yourself of course LOL LOL)

Post by **fdimike** » February 18, 2012, 7:18 am

Parrot

I think you failing to consider the financial points I mentioned, which coupled with the other issues makes for quite "viscious storm". Whether or not they can manage it all remains to be seen. We may all need a "Plan B".

Post by **trubrit** » February 18, 2012, 7:51 am

fdimike wrote:truebrit wrote

graduated from the Royal Thai Army's Command and General Staff College. They are now retired and the views expressed here are their own.

As is yours, mine and just about anyonelse on the this forum. It might surprise you to learn there are a lot of well educated people out there with a lot of expertise in this part of the world (other than yourself of course LOL LOL)

Well Mike, as you should have known if you had read your own article. I didn't write it. Purely a copy and paste. :-"
Can I ask.? Why you seem to be completely incapable of entering a debate with me without resorting to sarcasm ? It doesn't worry me, in fact I find it quite humorous as it reveals more about your personality than it does mine .But it would be interesting to know, possibly to others too.(LOL)

Post by **trubrit** » February 18, 2012, 12:37 pm

Just to put this story in perspective.
Asia Times was a newspaper launched in Thailand by thaicoon Sondhi Limthongkul in 1995. The newspaper hired talent from around the world to produce a regional English-language newspaper.

The newspaper faced financial difficulties in 1997 and closed down the week before the Asian financial crisis erupted with the collapse of the Thai baht on July 2, 1997.

Many journalists from Asia Times continued their careers as journalists. Some of them created Asia Times Online as a successor to Asia Times.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/nationa ... 74318.html This is the owner of the paper it was written in.
Owner of the rag and leader of the PAD. :-"

We are supposed to take the story seriously? Come on Mike do your homework first .

Post by **fdimike** » February 18, 2012, 5:40 pm

Truebrit

Since you have "graciously" opened the door for me I'll be happy to step inside.

Let me begin by saying you don't really comprehend the meaning of the word "discussion" which is a two way street so to speak. People get together to EXCHANGE IDEAS and information and not dictate that only one idea is correct. You seem to think it's a one way street and only you are going in the correct direction.

You also don't understand the meaning of the word "opinion". There are all kinds of opinions some better than others but they are all opinions. Some opinions are presented by very well educated people who are highly regarded in their own particular field of endeavor. Some are presented by people who wouldn't know an igloo from an ice cube. Be that as it may they are all opinions and open to interpetation by anyone reading or listening to them.

I never claimed that the opinion/information presented by the two journalists was right on the money. In fact I never made any claims other than to say it was interesting reading along with the story in Bloomberg. If you had really researched the backgrounds of the two journalists you would have discovered they have written numerous articles for Asia Times about the political situation in Thailand. They along with another Asia Times journalist - Shawn Crispin have presented some keen insight into Thai politics which to me is a significant achievement that eludes most people.

Lastly a person such as yourself calling me sarcastic is like the proverbial "pot calling the kettle black" as your posts (including the latest one) are packed with sarcastic remarks, most of which lend nothing to what you're trying to convey. You need to realize that you are not all knowing about all things despite what you would like people to believe.

I've never attacked you personally on this forum because I could see nothing would come of it. I could have easily added several less than complimentary adjectives to the person's post who referred to you as pompous.

Shall I go on or is this clear enough?

Post by **trubrit** » February 18, 2012, 10:49 pm

fdimike wrote:Truebrit

Since you have "graciously" opened the door for me I'll be happy to step inside.

Let me begin by saying you don't really comprehend the meaning of the word "discussion" which is a two way street so to speak. People get together to EXCHANGE IDEAS and information and not dictate that only one idea is correct. You seem to think it's a one way street and only you are going in the correct direction.

You also don't understand the meaning of the word "opinion". There are all kinds of opinions some better than others but they are all opinions. Some opinions are presented by very well educated people who are highly regarded in their own particular field of endeavor. Some are presented by people who wouldn't know an igloo from an ice cube. Be that as it may they are all opinions and open to interpetation by anyone reading or listening to them.

I never claimed that the opinion/information presented by the two journalists was right on the money. In fact I never made any claims other than to say it was interesting reading along with the story in Bloomberg. If you had really researched the backgrounds of the two journalists you would have discovered they have written numerous articles for Asia Times about the political situation in Thailand. They along with another Asia Times journalist - Shawn Crispin have presented some keen insight into Thai politics which to me is a significant achievement that eludes most people.

Lastly a person such as yourself calling me sarcastic is like the proverbial "pot calling the kettle black" as your posts (including the latest one) are packed with sarcastic remarks, most of which lend nothing to what you're trying to convey. You need to realize that you are not all knowing about all things despite what you would like people to believe.

I've never attacked you personally on this forum because I could see nothing would come of it. I could have easily added several less than complimentary adjectives to the person's post who referred to you as pompous.

Shall I go on or is this clear enough?

No please go on your obviously floundering and I am highly amused at your attempts to justify your obvious political; bias.I have researched the two so called journalist involved and find at one time they were employed as consular staff at the US embassy. Which must be pretty embarrassing as they are now paid employees of a political grouping opposing the democratically elected government . :-"

Post by **fdimike** » February 19, 2012, 6:11 am

What I've said about you has nothing to do with politics. It was an observation about you and only you. A person of average intelligence would easily comprehend what I said. I can only surmise you're just far too obtuse to understand what I wrote and therefore not worth anymore of my time.

Post by **trubrit** » February 19, 2012, 6:28 am

fdimike wrote:What I've said about you has nothing to do with politics. It was an observation about you and only you. A person of average intelligence would easily comprehend what I said. I can only surmise you're just far too obtuse to understand what I wrote and therefore not worth anymore of my time.

Lost the plot again then? Can't debate the subject you actually started so turn to making personal attacks.Sad

Post by **kjellsnell** » February 19, 2012, 8:05 am

fdimike wrote:What I've said about you has nothing to do with politics. It was an observation about you and only you. A person of average intelligence would easily comprehend what I said. I can only surmise you're just far too obtuse to understand what I wrote and therefore not worth anymore of my time.

Why not keep the personal stuff PM:s instead in an open forum ???