Will the ARMY step in again

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redwolf
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by redwolf » December 21, 2013, 5:12 pm

I read the post you submitted bumber re: NY Times, this section seems interesting:
The current antigovernment protests in Bangkok are the last gasp of Thai dynastic paternalism. They reflect the determination of the old elite and its middle-class allies to check the rising power of the formerly rural electorate by bringing down the Yingluck administration. They are calling for the creation of a “people’s assembly,” an unelected temporary governing body representing different occupational groups that would oversee a process of political reform — in effect, a dictatorship of the capital over the rest of the country.

The protests are taking place in a climate of growing national anxiety. This nervousness has several sources: fears about royal succession, as the long reign of an individual Adulyadej approaches its twilight; fears about secession, as one of the world’s worst insurgencies by Malay-Muslim separatists continues to rage in the southern provinces; fears about alienation, as pro-Thaksin groups have established thousands of “red-shirt villages” in the increasingly psychologically isolated north and northeast — and above all, fears among Bangkok’s middle classes about being outvoted by low-class urbanized villagers.

It was all so unnecessary. Just a few weeks ago, Ms. Yingluck was governing Thailand with the tacit support of the military and the monarchy. Her government had numerous failings, but for two and a half years there had been no serious political protests and the country’s deep divisions had been largely papered over.
all she had to do was not try to get her bro back in country & thigs might have been OK for a time....


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Svein66
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by Svein66 » December 21, 2013, 5:29 pm

Abhisit has just confirmed that the Democrat Party will boycot the Feb 2 election.

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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by rreddin » December 21, 2013, 6:11 pm

Svein66 wrote:Abhisit has just confirmed that the Democrat Party will boycot the Feb 2 election.
The disenfranchising of the elctorate has begun. I wonder if they will change the name of their party?

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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by FrazeeDK » December 21, 2013, 6:19 pm

some of the Thai media have hammered the NY Times article, claiming it is a one-sided viewpont and not representative of the truth.. Bangkok Pundit shows some polling data on protesters from both the PRDC and the UDD.. http://asiancorrespondent.com/author/bangkokpundit/
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by Svein66 » December 21, 2013, 6:47 pm

rreddin wrote:
Svein66 wrote:Abhisit has just confirmed that the Democrat Party will boycot the Feb 2 election.
The disenfranchising of the elctorate has begun. I wonder if they will change the name of their party?
Why should they? When the reds killed and burned Bangkok in 2010 they had big banners saying they wanted "real democracy". What they didn`t know then, and still don`t, is that democracy is a lot more than only winning an election.

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Post by FrazeeDK » December 21, 2013, 6:56 pm

The "Reds" are not some monolithic group dancing to Squarehead's puppeteer strings.. In 2010, a portion of the Red Leadership was willing to negotiate with Abhisit when he offered a dissolution of Parliament for later in the year.. Those moderates were fired by Taksin leaving the screamers on the stage.. Now, in 2013, it seems that there are very few moderate anti-government elements. Most are screamers stirring up the mobs.. I reckon after Army CINC Prayuth's comments today [url]http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... rsists[url] the military could well be the arbitrator that establishes some type of modified non-PRDC "People's Council."
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by parrot » December 21, 2013, 7:42 pm

I read that Bangkok Pundit article along with a Bangkok Post article slamming the Western presses reporting (specifically, Thomas Fuller of the New York Times).
A few years ago, the slam was against the CNN reporting of the red shirt demonstrations in Bangkok.

At the moment, I'm more prone to believing what reported by New Mandela and Bangkok Pundit than anything I read in the local press (Thai or English). All the same, shades of Tea Party slamming the mainstream media anytime someone reports something they don't like.

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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by parrot » December 21, 2013, 7:46 pm

I didn't get an especially warm fuzzy feeling when I read that Prayuth comment today. May be a bit of posturing/fear mongering.......but in any case, not the type of thing I like to hear from someone in his position.

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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by bumper » December 21, 2013, 8:17 pm

This the one you talking about Parrot? Could it go that far. Both sides are very passionate about their views. So I guess anything is possible. Honestly I would rather see the Army step then to see that.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... t-persists
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by kumphawapi » December 22, 2013, 7:15 am

A big problem is both sides take a narrow parochial view, and a very short term view at that.
The developments in Myanmar could mean a very rapid growth in rice for export. A stable democratic government their could mean a quick return of migrant workers, depriving Thai farming of a cheap labour force while at the same time pushing down rice prices. Rice exports from Vietnam and Cambodia are also increasing and contribute to downward pressure on prices. Guaranteed rice prices in Thailand seem even more unsustainable. If the opposition waits a couple of years while emphasising that corruption and rice policies are unsustainable and also offers some alternatives to the North and East - such as factories and development industry. Instead a valid protest about the rule of law has been subverted and it is difficult to see how either side can save face. One of the foundations of any democracy is that the general population agrees to abide by the rule of law. The present situation is stepping dangerously outside a stable state and almost forcing the military to take action.
Whoever wins in the present will get blamed for the worse situation in a couple of years time.
The opposition would have done much better to stick to protests about following the law and getting rid of corruption, and then develop policies for the future, while waiting for the northern support for the government to fall away.

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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by FrazeeDK » December 22, 2013, 7:58 am

Yes, the opposition can outline how subsidization of crops can damage the national treasury... Oh, wait a minute, what was Suthep's stance on rubber subsidies down in his home province??
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by bumper » December 22, 2013, 12:37 pm

There is one thing for sure a lot is happening right now. Thailand may have few tough years ahead. So pressure from all sides.
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by Svein66 » December 22, 2013, 7:36 pm

Aardvark wrote:Red Shirts to hold Forum in Udon, and Yingluck to visit next Friday and Saturday ... http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... vote-feb-2
She didn`t do much in Udon. After she attended meetings in Bangkok Friday morning she went to Mahasarakham. On Saturday she was in Kalasin, before she arrived in Udon last night, where she stayed at Napalai Hotel.
She then took the train to Nong Khai this morning, before going to Nong Bua Lamphu. This is what I`ve been told and read on tweets. Don`t know if she came back to Udon in the evening.

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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by FrazeeDK » December 22, 2013, 9:16 pm

I wonder if that was her cavalcade heading west toward Nong Bua Lamphu at speed around 3PM..
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by rreddin » December 22, 2013, 11:11 pm

Svein66 wrote:
Aardvark wrote:Red Shirts to hold Forum in Udon, and Yingluck to visit next Friday and Saturday ... http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... vote-feb-2
She didn`t do much in Udon. After she attended meetings in Bangkok Friday morning she went to Mahasarakham. On Saturday she was in Kalasin, before she arrived in Udon last night, where she stayed at Napalai Hotel.
She then took the train to Nong Khai this morning, before going to Nong Bua Lamphu. This is what I`ve been told and read on tweets. Don`t know if she came back to Udon in the evening.
She did something. She met local people. As I understand it, the event, like the others she attended, was intended to be a show of support for the general election - not a party political rally.

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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by Laan Yaa Mo » December 23, 2013, 6:46 am

In my opinion, you have two groups of middle class Chinese (Sino-Thai) elites fighting for power, wealth and prestige.

The Suthep Chinese group seems to have the backing of traditional elites and Bangkok Chinese, such as doctors, lawyers and educators.

The Yingluck/Thaksin Chinese group has the backing of urban Chinese elites such as doctors, lawyers and educators in urban areas in the north and northeast and some places in central Thailand.

The key difference between the two groups is that the Thai people, rural farmers, support the Yingluck/Thaksin Chinese group.

The Suthep Chinese group cannot stand this, and wants to eliminate the Thai factor from influencing the composition of the government. Hence, he wants to set up a kind of oligarchy or people's assembly in which Thais will not be a factor.

This has nothing to do with democracy, it has everything to do with preserving power, privilege and wealth for the Chinese in Thailand.

This is not to say that the Yingluck/Thaksin group want to do much for the Thai people, but they will distribute medical and farming benefits somewhat. For example, the farmers who could plant 2 or 3 crops a year did very well from the rice scheme. The ones who lost, if they could not get around the rules, were the urban rice brokers, namely Bangkok Chinese and Chinese money lenders. They, obviously, support Suthep.

Read a book 'Political Conflict in Thailand' by David Morell. In it is a chapter about the Peasant's Federation of Thailand which operated in the '70s. This Federation was set up by Thai farmers and was very popular. One of their policies was to eliminate the Chinese middle man from taking most of the profits from their rice crop. Somewhere within a few months of its establishment over 21 peasant leaders in the Chiang Mai area were murdered

Who are the losers in all of this? The Thai people.

Now, there is one group we cannot talk about. However, anyone who wants to know how and why things changed in this area needs to read about the dictator, Sarit, who ran the government in the mid-50s. Analyse one of the key elements in his platform and you will see the dramatic change that Sarit introduced during his rule.

Again, ask yourself why Suthep and his fellow Chinese backers do not want Thai people to have any political influence in Thailand. Why do they want to confine politics to the Chinese (Sino-Thai) elites? The answer to this question will help you understand why Thailand will never have full democracy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarit_Thanarat
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by maaka » December 23, 2013, 7:50 am

well done Laan..give it time and it will be another Tibet..That family you dont mention, wont exist in the future, unless Thai's grab the dragon by the throat now, and straggle it..
ASEAN will only hasten an influx of more chinese into all those related nations such as Thailand. They all think it is going to be great, but there are sides to this they do not even see yet...indeed, it is even happening in my own country, one in eight is now Asian. My government allows them to buy our farms, and our big land holdings, we kick up a stink but government is more concerned with the budget..the encroachment is not noticed until it is to late..

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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by Prenders88 » December 23, 2013, 8:46 am

Yes good post Uncle Tilo. =D>

The Chinese are also buying up huge tracts of land in the African sub continent, buying off politicians with boxes of money and gold. On our doorstep Laos turning into a Chinese suburb.

Why is that when the Red Shirts demonstrated in Bangkok, the guns were turned on them and their camps were bulldozed?
With the Yellow shirts nothing.
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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by Svein66 » December 23, 2013, 8:50 am

Prenders88 wrote:Why is that when the Red Shirts demonstrated in Bangkok, the guns were turned on them and their camps were bulldozed?
With the Yellow shirts nothing.
Because the red shirts killed people and burned the city, both in 2009 and 2010.

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Will the ARMY step in again

Post by bumper » December 23, 2013, 11:00 am

Excellent post Laan, the things we see now may seem new. But, there is a lot of history. For us difficult to find. I did manage to find a few. The most significant the one the 97 crash.

It would appear that military is a power player and that is probably going to be the only answer in the end. If things don't slow down. Hopefully that will only be a stop gap measure to prevent civil war. So far the UDD has been restrained. If this continues I believe that will change.
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