UT farang/thai family businesses.. how's it going?

[fogeyes]

.i think it's going down that road of where the land prices have increased so much it's given the Thais that I'm rich feeling and all gone out and borrowed up to the eyeballs.a loan to 99% of Thais is a toxic loan and I think most of us know that.land prices are way over the top here and what goes up must come down.

Totally agree with Marcos about inflated land prices, just check out the classifieds.Land for sale 4 kilo outside of Udon,half a rai, nearly 2 million baht.

[vidmaster]

But we all know that in these circumstances the Thai way is to increase prices- well that was my experience when in Pattaya & golf courses were deserted, they increased green, caddie & Carr fees!!!
Will be interesting to see what happens to THB exchange rates

[fatbob]

I think a recession could be around the corner, I read last week in the Bkk post how the present government has siphoned off nearly all the cash reserves leaving about 20% in balance, some 400 billion baht, don't think a recession will bother them to much as there pockets are now full, might mean elections are coming now not much is left in reserve....pity the new gov.

[Liam Dale]

Interesting responses. A cold wind on the horizon I think and a bit bleak for Thai people and incomes. Batten down hatches time? Thanks for comments. Out of thread.

[vincemunday]

Today we went back to the village where we have our land to visit the people we bought it from and something struck me. In the past the farmers we bought the land from grew cash crops, tapioca, sweet corn and the likes, now however it would seem they are growing more things than they can eat, courgettes, beans, marrows and tomatoes etc, not in large quantities, not for resale but to put on the table at dinner time. While we were talking with them they were pretty much saying the commodity prices were not so great and it was hard to make a living farming. So, putting one and one together it would seem the family of farmers we know are riding out the storm by growing their food to eat rather than rely on market forces, interesting but also sort of aligned with what's been said here,

[Liam Dale]

Good report Vince.. we have seen ALL but one of the BBQ fish people in the road close now.. that's four little roadside businesses.. 3 drinks.. and at least two papaya..gone.. a cha payom (or however you spull it) appear.. we have also heard some farmers focusing on self support.. not planting rice.. digging holes for a few fish.. sorting hens for eggs.. and growing veggies.. thats long haul survival stuff.. along with the bits we cant discuss reference no elections.. vastly reduced cash reserves for the country.. etc.. today we raised 1,000 JUST as opposed to the same day last year at 3k.. the buddhist holiday monday thing.. I said I was out.. but updating what we learnt today. Oh.. I went and had lunch as I was passing, a particularly popular watering hole.. at 1pm.. I was first customer of the day apparently.. So.. Vince.. can we plough your garden and grow veggies.. Alas I have only a patio!

[vincemunday]

Fortunately the wife's little business seems to be thriving, I sort of sense a change in people's eating habits, I think they are moving away from the barrows and going to the little cafes and restaurants where there is a modicum of cleanliness and accountability for the quality of the food they sell. It's a bit sad really, the wife's land has sat there empty, we have the well dug and the electricity goes in over the next couple of days. Next a little weekend house to be built and then I have no doubt Mrs Munday will plant veggies etc for use in her cafe, she comes from a family of farmers and actually relishes digging and watering, not for me I might add, I don't do gardening. The farmers should fare better than most, they have the wherewithal to grow their own and hence survive the hardships that perhaps the townies won't be able to.

[can123]

I have been studying Thai property sites for at last four years and have memorised a great many house prices. Preben Prezman's site is still live although he no longer works as an estate agent. You will not be surprised to learn that one of the properties on his site , which failed to sell at just under 4 Million baht, is not cheerfully advertised at nearly 4.4 million baht by another firm in Udon Thani. Utter madness ! Who could possibly be stupid enough to deal with these people ? They have no business acumen and are just looking for mugs.

[vincemunday]

The thing is that the flow of wide eyed mugs coming here and being blinded by the "cheap" property is slowing down, the estate agents are putting a great spin on the current market but my guess is that the real estate market is stagnant to say the least. I was looking for a property in town and was completely amazed how some people think that you're as stupid as they were and that because they have paid far too much for a property that you should too! Common sense will prevail....eventually.

[can123]

The property market in Thailand is at rock bottom. By that I meant that estate agents and sellers ask silly prices for property and very few second hand houses are actually sold. Buying a house in Thailand at current prices now means that one has next to no chance of offloading it in the future. It is for this reason that I will build my own.

It should have been obvious to me ages ago that this was my only sensible route. My wife is the legal owner of a 1 rai plot of land and the old style half concrete/half wood house which stands on it. The house has been in the family for over sixty years and there are no problems relating to title. We will build a new house as we live in the old one and then knock the first one down.

In early May we will be visiting my wife's uncle to see the house he had built in the same town. If all is well, it is very likely that we will use the same builder without having to pay too much of a surcharge for being a farang.

Some Thais are very good at running a business, others are lousy. A crash will come and some Thais will deserve to suffer for their greed. Unfortunately, a lot of good people will be hurt as well.

[Nigglyb]

I have been studying Thai property sites for at last four years and have memorised a great many house prices. Preben Prezman's site is still live although he no longer works as an estate agent. You will not be surprised to learn that one of the properties on his site , which failed to sell at just under 4 Million baht, is not cheerfully advertised at nearly 4.4 million baht by another firm in Udon Thani. Utter madness ! Who could possibly be stupid enough to deal with these people ? They have no business acumen and are just looking for mugs.

I've seen these wildly varying prices too. Theres another house on one website for B10m, been advertised for over a year & recently advertised on another website for B12.2m. Its just nuts, particularly when in my opinion its probably only worth about B5m

[thaiguzzi]

Rubber trees.
Mrs average gross Dec/Jan was 210k pm. Net profit per month 120k. Just turned down an offer of 4.5 mil for a 28 rai plot of mature trees. Farming ain't that bad...
There is nothing in Udon a 4.5 mil investment would bring, that could compete with what a well functioning and run rubber plantation brings WHEN prices are half decent. Rubber prices are currently decent, not bad (100% better than 12 months ago) but nowhere near record levels from 6 years ago...

[Liam Dale]

I'm holding the line at 5 rai for 500k. anywhere within my foghorn mouth distance from UT.. which prob means.. about 20 km. Looking for a "hot money" requirement as my wife calls it. Agreeing with can123.. building our own. pointing in the right direction etc. Trees can grow and veggies can be stolen while we sell our own reasonably priced UT house. If we find somewhere with a shed already there.. we can camp in it. 5 year plan. Meanwhile I sadly report I believe our shop down 15k AGAIN this Feb.. which would mean 75k lost of cash incomes over 5 months. JUST clearing overhead this month. No luxuries. 100% thai income.

[papafarang]

I feel for the wifes family, good hard workers, quite a nice piece of land they have. alas every time they changed crop there seemed to be a crash in the price, time after time. so six years ago they decided as they are both in their late 70's that they would plant rubber. lucky dad is a retired teacher with a government pension so they can manage. but it must be heartbreaking being a farmer. a few years back they put 10 rai of cassava in, then the price crashed to a few baht per kilo, needless to say it was hardly worth harvesting. as I say they got lots of land and half is not being used, simply because they don't know what to plant. good to hear rubber is back up, last year they even considered cutting down the 20 rai of rubber just for wood. glad they didn't if the price is getting better.

[Liam Dale]

Papa is wise.. its NOT easy being a farmer at this time.. many illusions out there.. I believe its finger nail hanging time for Thai business stuff. A contributor talked about the learning curve of people eating in MORE cafes now.. ( I cant call them restuarants). Perspective.. opposite our shop is a NEW BBQ fish player. I popped to my corner shop.. buying my beer there for two years.. I ask them, you buy fish from new player? They say NO.. he have no water to wash hand or toilet.. just go in garden.. Thais are learning.. they bought their fish from a place 2km away.. and the NEW fish BBQ people.. have 4 fish to eat tonight as a family. Tough times ahead.. NOT seen a lot of farang business post here tho..

[vincemunday]

The proof is in the pudding as they say, the wife has had her best day ever today, I'm very proud of her, but as I (the contributor) was saying, people are becoming far more aware of hygiene than ever before, it can only be a good thing providing they don't get stupid like we have in the west. Surprisingly she also seems to be acquiring more Farang customers too, I guess the combination of cleanliness and her ability to speak English is working in her favour.

[Liam Dale]

The proof is in the pudding as they say, the wife has had her best day ever today, I'm very proud of her, but as I (the contributor) was saying, people are becoming far more aware of hygiene than ever before, it can only be a good thing providing they don't get stupid like we have in the west. Surprisingly she also seems to be acquiring more Farang customers too, I guess the combination of cleanliness and her ability to speak English is working in her favour.

I'm with Vince all the way with this.. and VERY pleased for his mrs.. he n I.. dont get on.. not important.. but his wife's cafe is superbly clean and for sure she speaks good English..n ignores our petty rubbish.. wish she sold Chang! Today OUR income WAY up.. its a real see saw at this time.. who knows..

[rick]

Round our village the building boom is continuing unabated - as long as it is on the main road. across from our house an old thai house was sold middle last year (usual reason, debts). Already demolished and 2 shop houses built on the site. Not sure why - there are plenty of empty shop houses in the village. Off the main road, family has an old house for rent -just rented again, but empty before that for 6 months. On the farms we drive past every day, last wet season only about half the rice fields were planted up, the rest are just untouched, particularly the more waterlogged ones. F-in-L gave up rice growing last year, for first time in his life.

The only growing business going on now is filling in fields to make building plots. Also,seen many medium size ponds dug (about 1 rai in size) and then seemingly abandoned, rumour was they were for crayfish. Also this last week saw 2 ponds dug on a slope well above the water table - still dry - cannot imagine why as no water source unless pumping up hill from the waterlogged paddies - but that's surely going to be uneconomic.

Other family business is selling freshly killed ducks and chickens. Demand for ducks fell slowly last 6 months, and chicken sales slumped after new year. Guess the rice money has gone.

[tamada]

The proof is in the pudding as they say, the wife has had her best day ever today, I'm very proud of her, but as I (the contributor) was saying, people are becoming far more aware of hygiene than ever before, it can only be a good thing providing they don't get stupid like we have in the west. Surprisingly she also seems to be acquiring more Farang customers too, I guess the combination of cleanliness and her ability to speak English is working in her favour.

I'm with Vince all the way with this.. and VERY pleased for his mrs.. he n I.. dont get on.. not important.. but his wife's cafe is superbly clean and for sure she speaks good English..n ignores our petty rubbish.. wish she sold Chang! Today OUR income WAY up.. its a real see saw at this time.. who knows..

Looks like I will be coming by to get some stuff printed at your IC later today... about 3 months after I first asked! That should help the cashflow a wee bit.

I would have PM'd you but it says you can't receive them.

[Liam Dale]

Thursday income.. way down! Hoping for a better weekend and for us the school hols bode well as thai parents work and we child mind. I did a quick day time tour yesterday.. counting lilly white tourists. I see the entire block of bars opposite Irish Clock razed. Not been there for years but wont those mostly run/owned by Thais? Anyone know what the business plan is there?