Currency Crisis Happening Now

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anefarious1
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Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by anefarious1 » June 20, 2019, 1:15 pm

I am very surprised there isn't more talk of what is happening with exchange rates. I'm looking at all the major pairs (USD, AUD, GBP, EUR) against the Baht. It is a total disaster and it seems to be accelerating! Yet, folks are fairly quiet about this situation. I understand English teachers may not mind, but what about pensioners or those who've saved a fair bit over a lifetime. Darn! I should have moved my money over here a long time ago. The Thai baht is a proven safe haven currency. It's very impressive. Meanwhile, western countries are engaged in a currency war (to the bottom) in order to artificially stimulate their economies. My head hurts.



pipadoo
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by pipadoo » June 20, 2019, 2:15 pm

This is where a good visa agent earn their corn😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎

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parrot
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by parrot » June 20, 2019, 2:43 pm

The benefit of having moved here in 1996.......$1.00 = 25.13Baht. Today $1.00 = 31 and change = +20%

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Zidane
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by Zidane » June 20, 2019, 2:56 pm

20% differential is minimal compared to the Pound Sterling.
When I first came to Udon in 2004 it was 72 baht to the Pound, now it's 39 and still falling.
That's a decrease of over 45% if my maths are correct?
Many of us Brit's are surviving by drinking rainwater and eating insects from the garden ! :badteeth:
Just when I thought our chance had passed,you go and save the best for last.

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newtovillagelife
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by newtovillagelife » June 20, 2019, 4:49 pm

Zidane wrote:
June 20, 2019, 2:56 pm
20% differential is minimal compared to the Pound Sterling.
When I first came to Udon in 2004 it was 72 baht to the Pound, now it's 39 and still falling.
That's a decrease of over 45% if my maths are correct?
Many of us Brit's are surviving by drinking rainwater and eating insects from the garden ! :badteeth:
Consider yourself an honorary village Thai.

dunroaming
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by dunroaming » June 20, 2019, 5:03 pm

newtovillagelife wrote:
June 20, 2019, 4:49 pm
Zidane wrote:
June 20, 2019, 2:56 pm
20% differential is minimal compared to the Pound Sterling.
When I first came to Udon in 2004 it was 72 baht to the Pound, now it's 39 and still falling.
That's a decrease of over 45% if my maths are correct?
Many of us Brit's are surviving by drinking rainwater and eating insects from the garden ! :badteeth:
Consider yourself an honorary village Thai.
Mark my words the good days will return, I expect the Thai economy will once more fail like before, you can see the signs already

Doodoo
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by Doodoo » June 20, 2019, 5:07 pm

Dunroaming
You mentioned that the Thai economy will fail and the signs are showing already

What signs would those be??

dunroaming
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by dunroaming » June 20, 2019, 5:27 pm

Debts per households have risen dramatically, prices everywhere are going up wages are not, tighter lending conditions by banks on house and car finance as too many repossessions. Closet to home many in the markets complaining they can't make a living anymore. Land prices in some parts have gone crazy even for swamp land this all has a knock on effect. Exporters struggling to compete with the baht so strong lots of small signs of a larger impact. But hey maybe I'm wrong only time will tell

Doodoo
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by Doodoo » June 20, 2019, 5:54 pm

I agree thanks for the examples

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747man
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by 747man » June 20, 2019, 5:55 pm

Sooooo When Will we See 50+ Baht to The Pound Again ??

samster
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by samster » June 20, 2019, 5:58 pm

My background is in the Insolvency profession and I had been reading the other thread about Thailand being in a recession with interest.

My view concurs with yours Dunroaming. For the past 3 years, banks have been selective in their loans and they have many many toxic debts that, to me, is a sign of an imminent recession.....but been imminent throughout the past few years.

Another thought from an uneducated viewpoint is that the strong Baht gives the ultra rich the window to buy up assets overseas cheaply. If the Baht weakens, they can sell and make a killing.

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AlexO
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by AlexO » June 20, 2019, 6:10 pm

dunroaming wrote:
June 20, 2019, 5:27 pm
Debts per households have risen dramatically, prices everywhere are going up wages are not, tighter lending conditions by banks on house and car finance as too many repossessions. Closet to home many in the markets complaining they can't make a living anymore. Land prices in some parts have gone crazy even for swamp land this all has a knock on effect. Exporters struggling to compete with the baht so strong lots of small signs of a larger impact. But hey maybe I'm wrong only time will tell
Paul
You forgot to mention the glut of unsold condo's now that the Chinese have almost stopped buying since they have found that the resale market is almost non existent and developers are selling finished condo's for less than the Project Launch prices. The Chinese Yuan is almost 20% lower against the Baht than last year wonder how long it will take before TAT starts telling the truth about tourist numbers as well. Export sales down, tourist numbers 'perhaps' falling, people defaulting on loans. Thai Government spending large amounts of money to stimulate the Thai economy. The sighs are all there.

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parrot
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by parrot » June 20, 2019, 6:30 pm

I don't know if Mark Farber is still actively predicting economic recessions......but if you stick to your prediction guns, eventually you will be right...although I thing Mark is wrong most all the time. Since the very beginning of the Baht regaining strength after Thaitanic I, a day hardly has gone by that someone doesn't predict another collapse and the return of Thaitanic I exchange rates. The Thai economy has mostly soldiered on since then......despite a few coups, lots of domestic disorder, a military junta, and major changes in the household above any mere politician. As long as I've been here villagers have been in debt.....not to banks where it might be possible to pay them off, but rather to lone sharks who can choke you from you last plate of somptom.
I'll play Mark Farber and predict that if there's anything close to what we saw in 1997, it'll be because of ineptness and greed at the hands of unelected officials......which seems to be the paving material of choice for the road ahead. More likely, though, is that the country will continue to develop.....ups and downs along with the global economy......but I doubt I'll see anything resembling 40/$1 in my lifetime.......again.
Those were the daze my friends.

johanthomsen
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by johanthomsen » June 20, 2019, 6:50 pm

It might be that the Thai economy is on an upward spiral, but it looks like they are set to loose against their neighbour countries as they seem to have much more flexibility in many affairs that are locked in tons of paperwork and corruption inside the Thai government system...
Also the fact that the rich are getting richer and a big majority of others seem to struggle is a sign of danger, as that scenario has happend in eastern european countries, and when it all came crashing down, the rich people abandoned the countries, and the rest is clear to see for those doing some research...

If a country gains a too strong currency without it being utilised in the correct manners, then it can get very quickly out of control..

As it looks now, the baht has grown too strong for itself as it does not represent the correct values inside the country in many places.

RLTrader
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by RLTrader » June 20, 2019, 7:16 pm

Just an observation today here in Udon. Went to my car service place and it is usually full & very busy. Today, almost no one there. Maybe because it's Tuesday?

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jackspratt
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by jackspratt » June 20, 2019, 8:37 pm

Ummm........... it's actually Thursday. :oops:

RLTrader
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by RLTrader » June 20, 2019, 8:43 pm

jackspratt wrote:
June 20, 2019, 8:37 pm
Ummm........... it's actually Thursday. :oops:
:lol:

samster
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by samster » June 20, 2019, 10:12 pm

parrot wrote:
June 20, 2019, 6:30 pm
As long as I've been here villagers have been in debt.....not to banks where it might be possible to pay them off, but rather to lone sharks who can choke you from you last plate of somptom.
Absolutely true but, in my view, more people are turning to loan sharks as the banks and finance houses are unable to provide instalment plans for "essentials" such as motor cycles. The sensible ones just accept they cannot buy new but, Thainess means it is a difficult one to take on the chin.

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Laan Yaa Mo
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by Laan Yaa Mo » June 20, 2019, 11:19 pm

Today, Thursday, 20 June 2019, the Canadian dollar rose to 75.5 to the U.S. greenback. A few weeks ago. it was 73.4 U.S. However it has fallen to 23.4 baht. This is not welcome news.
ເຮົາຈະລ່ວງພັ້ນຄວາມຕາຍໄປ່ບໍ່ໄດ

anefarious1
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Re: Currency Crisis Happening Now

Post by anefarious1 » June 20, 2019, 11:25 pm

How about the Australian dollar getting VERY close to, I think, 22 year lows against the baht.

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchang ... tnOK=Go%21

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