RECESSION?

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parrot
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by parrot » August 19, 2019, 4:54 pm

Airportwo wrote:
August 19, 2019, 3:39 pm
This sums it up, from "Boom"
Over the last week, the mainstream media in the Western world has hit the Panic Now Button. They have filled their headlines and news bulletins with multiple warnings of imminent economic recession. They have declared discovery of the Yield Curve and brought this arcane subject forward for discussion around the kitchen table as if it is some newly formed object of delirium or perhaps some fascinating old artifact from Ancient Egypt.
Whatever the method of presentation, the conclusion from the “professional” mainstream commentariat has been consistent. They state that this amazing new phenomenon that they have discovered called the Yield Curve MUST be a reliable indicator of an economic contraction, maybe a depression. Some “expert” commentary has even foretold of Economic Armageddon (whatever that is). The protagonists of that scenario seem not content with just a slowing of economic growth or even a stagnation of growth. They seem desperate to see total economic carnage where everyone ends up in rags, begging from the Enlightened Holders of Gold.
Similar to 97% of renowned scientists acknowledging global warming. If I was a betting man, I know where I'd place my bet



RLTrader
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by RLTrader » August 19, 2019, 5:49 pm

‘It’s theft’ Keiser Report unearths ugly truth about negative yield bonds

https://www.rt.com/business/466760-keis ... nds-theft/

Doodoo
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » August 19, 2019, 5:57 pm

Airportwo
You havent answered my question concerning the price of oil

"I dont usually follow the price of oil but on the charts in December 2018 oil was about $42 and is now $54 a barrel
When you mean down , down to what from what and when
My quote was for the first half of 2019 concerning PTTs profits being off by 21%"

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JimboPSM
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by JimboPSM » August 19, 2019, 7:06 pm

Some members of this forum will be more than well aware that the inversion of the yield curve was not discovered last week as I drew attention to it on UM over a year ago.

At that time there were already signs warning of the possibility of the yield curve inverting and the dangers attendant to it.

This is an extract of the pertinent part of the post that I made at that time:
JimboPSM wrote:
July 15, 2018, 10:53 pm

..... Below is a chart from “MarketWatch” of the interest rates on US Treasuries from one month to thirty years compared to what they were a year ago.

Especial note should be made of just how much the interest rates has increased from a year ago on all but the thirty year note!
  • US Treasuries - Various on 13 Jul 2018.jpg
There is a term for what has been happening to the shorter term interest rates in the chart above – flattening.

This flattening will get a lot of economists along with every US bank and major US financial institution to really sit up and take notice (if they are not already doing so).

The reason they will be taking notice is that, once the yield curve has fully flattened there is a very real danger that it then becomes inverted.

Historically, the inverted yield curve in the US has been a precursor of recessions – and, based on the historical frequency of recessions we are already past due the next one.

Links to information on the inverted yield curve can be found here:
For those who are interested in the extract above taken in the full context of the post I made at the time, here is a link to that post:

One of the biggest indicators so far that a recession may be just over the horizon came from charlatan Larry Kudlow vehemently denying it over the weekend.

Kudlow is one those who continues to peddle the Trickle-down economics BS; however, Kudlow really made his mark in the financial world as a figure for mockery, ridicule and derision by denying the existence of the 2008 recession well after it had started.

.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism (and economic suicide).

Humiliated to have Johnson (a racist, serial liar and hypocrite) as UK Prime Minister.

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jackspratt
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by jackspratt » August 19, 2019, 7:31 pm

JimboPSM wrote:
August 19, 2019, 7:06 pm
Kudlow is one those who continues to peddle the Trickle-down economics BS; however, Kudlow really made his mark in the financial world as a figure for mockery, ridicule and derision by denying the existence of the 2008 recession well after it had started.
It is easy to see how Kudlow got tapped as Trump's chief economics advisor:
5 Times Trump's Favorite Economic Advisor Has Been Spectacularly Wrong About the Economy

http://money.com/money/5197470/trump-pi ... edictions/
:D

Doodoo
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » August 21, 2019, 6:05 pm

Business
Recession warning: RV sales hit the skids

Forget the bond market, some economists are looking to the RV market for signs of an impending recession.

Shipments of recreational vehicles are down 20.3% so far this year, after falling 4.1% in 2018, according to the RV Industry Association, and it may be flashing a warning signal about the health of the U.S. economy.

“We’ve seen in the past when RV sales have slowed down, it’s a sign that the economy is slowing down,” Indiana University business professor, Kyle Anderson, said on Yahoo Finance’s “The First Trade.”

Multiyear drops in RV shipments have preceded the last three recessions.
Anderson said higher steel and aluminum prices from the tariffs have pushed RV prices up about 9% over the past year, and warns that a prolonged trade war with China could send prices even higher.

Doodoo
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » August 30, 2019, 9:01 am

GM sold 9,921 Chevrolet vehicles in Thailand in the first seven months of 2019, a decrease of 10.8 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year
GM laying off possibly 327 at Rayong plant

More information to utilize

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saint
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Location: the truth is out there . but dont dare tell it !!!!

Re: RECESSION?

Post by saint » August 31, 2019, 9:20 am

Speaking to a guy we know who works at the purple palace as the head vehicles inspectors assistant the other day , and he said that over 50% of the vehicles going through now are not vehicles changing hands , but being re financed be their owners .
Make of that what you will , but its not the norm , just in the last few months .

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