RECESSION?

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parrot
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by parrot » August 19, 2019, 4:54 pm

Airportwo wrote:
August 19, 2019, 3:39 pm
This sums it up, from "Boom"
Over the last week, the mainstream media in the Western world has hit the Panic Now Button. They have filled their headlines and news bulletins with multiple warnings of imminent economic recession. They have declared discovery of the Yield Curve and brought this arcane subject forward for discussion around the kitchen table as if it is some newly formed object of delirium or perhaps some fascinating old artifact from Ancient Egypt.
Whatever the method of presentation, the conclusion from the “professional” mainstream commentariat has been consistent. They state that this amazing new phenomenon that they have discovered called the Yield Curve MUST be a reliable indicator of an economic contraction, maybe a depression. Some “expert” commentary has even foretold of Economic Armageddon (whatever that is). The protagonists of that scenario seem not content with just a slowing of economic growth or even a stagnation of growth. They seem desperate to see total economic carnage where everyone ends up in rags, begging from the Enlightened Holders of Gold.
Similar to 97% of renowned scientists acknowledging global warming. If I was a betting man, I know where I'd place my bet



RLTrader
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by RLTrader » August 19, 2019, 5:49 pm

‘It’s theft’ Keiser Report unearths ugly truth about negative yield bonds

https://www.rt.com/business/466760-keis ... nds-theft/

Doodoo
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » August 19, 2019, 5:57 pm

Airportwo
You havent answered my question concerning the price of oil

"I dont usually follow the price of oil but on the charts in December 2018 oil was about $42 and is now $54 a barrel
When you mean down , down to what from what and when
My quote was for the first half of 2019 concerning PTTs profits being off by 21%"

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JimboPSM
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by JimboPSM » August 19, 2019, 7:06 pm

Some members of this forum will be more than well aware that the inversion of the yield curve was not discovered last week as I drew attention to it on UM over a year ago.

At that time there were already signs warning of the possibility of the yield curve inverting and the dangers attendant to it.

This is an extract of the pertinent part of the post that I made at that time:
JimboPSM wrote:
July 15, 2018, 10:53 pm

..... Below is a chart from “MarketWatch” of the interest rates on US Treasuries from one month to thirty years compared to what they were a year ago.

Especial note should be made of just how much the interest rates has increased from a year ago on all but the thirty year note!
  • US Treasuries - Various on 13 Jul 2018.jpg
There is a term for what has been happening to the shorter term interest rates in the chart above – flattening.

This flattening will get a lot of economists along with every US bank and major US financial institution to really sit up and take notice (if they are not already doing so).

The reason they will be taking notice is that, once the yield curve has fully flattened there is a very real danger that it then becomes inverted.

Historically, the inverted yield curve in the US has been a precursor of recessions – and, based on the historical frequency of recessions we are already past due the next one.

Links to information on the inverted yield curve can be found here:
For those who are interested in the extract above taken in the full context of the post I made at the time, here is a link to that post:

One of the biggest indicators so far that a recession may be just over the horizon came from charlatan Larry Kudlow vehemently denying it over the weekend.

Kudlow is one those who continues to peddle the Trickle-down economics BS; however, Kudlow really made his mark in the financial world as a figure for mockery, ridicule and derision by denying the existence of the 2008 recession well after it had started.

.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism (and economic suicide).

Humiliated to have Johnson (a racist, serial liar and hypocrite) as UK Prime Minister.

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by jackspratt » August 19, 2019, 7:31 pm

JimboPSM wrote:
August 19, 2019, 7:06 pm
Kudlow is one those who continues to peddle the Trickle-down economics BS; however, Kudlow really made his mark in the financial world as a figure for mockery, ridicule and derision by denying the existence of the 2008 recession well after it had started.
It is easy to see how Kudlow got tapped as Trump's chief economics advisor:
5 Times Trump's Favorite Economic Advisor Has Been Spectacularly Wrong About the Economy

http://money.com/money/5197470/trump-pi ... edictions/
:D

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » August 21, 2019, 6:05 pm

Business
Recession warning: RV sales hit the skids

Forget the bond market, some economists are looking to the RV market for signs of an impending recession.

Shipments of recreational vehicles are down 20.3% so far this year, after falling 4.1% in 2018, according to the RV Industry Association, and it may be flashing a warning signal about the health of the U.S. economy.

“We’ve seen in the past when RV sales have slowed down, it’s a sign that the economy is slowing down,” Indiana University business professor, Kyle Anderson, said on Yahoo Finance’s “The First Trade.”

Multiyear drops in RV shipments have preceded the last three recessions.
Anderson said higher steel and aluminum prices from the tariffs have pushed RV prices up about 9% over the past year, and warns that a prolonged trade war with China could send prices even higher.

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » August 30, 2019, 9:01 am

GM sold 9,921 Chevrolet vehicles in Thailand in the first seven months of 2019, a decrease of 10.8 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year
GM laying off possibly 327 at Rayong plant

More information to utilize

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saint
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by saint » August 31, 2019, 9:20 am

Speaking to a guy we know who works at the purple palace as the head vehicles inspectors assistant the other day , and he said that over 50% of the vehicles going through now are not vehicles changing hands , but being re financed be their owners .
Make of that what you will , but its not the norm , just in the last few months .

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » October 25, 2019, 9:09 am

"BANGKOK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Thailand’s biggest auto parts manufacturer, Thai Summit Group, said it will suspend operations at one of its 26 factories for two months, due to a drop in orders from automakers.
Domestic car sales have slumped in Thailand, which is also a regional production and export base for some of the world’s top vehicle manufacturers. The sector accounts for about 10% of the Thai economy.
In a letter seen by Reuters, Thai Summit, which makes chassis frames, wiring and electrical components, told employees and the government it would suspend operations of one plant from Oct. 26 until Dec. 25.
The unlisted company declined to comment on how much of its overall annual production capacity that would affect.
In other signs of a slowdown in the sector, General Motors cut about 350 jobs in August, equivalent to more than 15% of its workforce in the country.
French auto supplier Valeo and Japanese automaker Mitsubishi Motors Corp have also introduced early retirment programmes.
In September, Thai car sales fell 14.1% from a year earlier, down for a fourth consecutive month. (Reporting by Chayut Setboonsarng; Additional reporting by Panu Wongcha-um; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)"

People have no money therfore sales down. Is this indicator trying to tell us something????

RLTrader
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by RLTrader » October 25, 2019, 11:09 am

Doodoo wrote:
October 25, 2019, 9:09 am

Domestic car sales have slumped in Thailand,
SR - "Domestic car sales have slumped "World Wide"!

PeakAuto or PeakCar has arrived! Saw a piece on this a few days ago.

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tamada
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by tamada » October 25, 2019, 12:52 pm

Honda announce all cars will be electrified by 2022 as Japanese firm reveals electric Jazz

This about 18 months after saying that they'll stick with diesel engines for fleet sales.

I wonder if the recession will have passed and the world economy rebounded by 2022 so that they can sell some of these electric cars and recoup the cost of investment in alternative energy?

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/ca ... ale-models

Doodoo
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » October 26, 2019, 4:39 pm

About 400 workers have been laid off, effective today (Friday), after the of SRF Industries (Thailand) Company’s tyre canvas production plant, in the Map Taput industrial estate in Thailand’s eastern province of Rayong, closed down due to operating losses accrued during the current economic slowdown.

The workers were notified of the impending retrenchments on September 24th by the management, citing the poor economic climate, declining demand for the company’s products and the steady appreciation of the Thai baht.

According to the company, the end finally came after one of the company’s biggest customers decided to stop buying the company’s products, leaving no other choice for the management but to wind up the business.

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mech_401
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by mech_401 » October 26, 2019, 6:47 pm

there was an article i think in khao sod english
news stating the bulk of thais were in debt living
month to month. these chinese-thai families in
udon , with multiple businesses, dynasties really
is not life average thais are experiencing

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » October 26, 2019, 7:28 pm

"there was an article i think in khao sod english
news stating the bulk of thais were in debt living
month to month. these chinese-thai families in
udon , with multiple businesses, dynasties really
is not life average thais are experiencing"

Mech
What has this got to do with Recession and the slowing down of manufacturing, spending etc.

In EVER COUNTRY there are loads of people/families living paycheck to paycheck and in every counrty there are groups who excel and make more than others, WHY? Because there are surveys that gather that information WHO CARES we are talking about recession

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mech_401
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by mech_401 » October 26, 2019, 8:45 pm

. . . because . . it is a symptom of recession ?
you dont seem to even understand these economic terms youre lecturing on ? please cont professor

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » October 26, 2019, 9:14 pm

Its a system of living!!???

That surely doesnt indicate a recession living paycheck to paycheck.

Name me a time in history people and economic systems werent crying "Oh I dont have enough money to live"

You aint got a clue

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mech_401
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by mech_401 » October 27, 2019, 3:48 am

your area of expertise is " u.s. political analysis"

it sure isnt finance/ economics. as you dont appear to have ever taken any of these courses :-s

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rick
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by rick » October 27, 2019, 8:09 pm

Earlier this week in BigC Suzuki had some cars on display. The prices seem to have been cut by up to 100,000 baht (i am not really up on Suzuki prices, but cheaper than equivalent Nissan were last time i looked).

jai yen yen
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by jai yen yen » October 27, 2019, 10:31 pm

Doodoo wrote:
October 26, 2019, 9:14 pm
Its a system of living!!???

That surely doesnt indicate a recession living paycheck to paycheck.

Name me a time in history people and economic systems werent crying "Oh I dont have enough money to live"

You aint got a clue
In Canada where I live my wages have doubled in the last 30 years, cost of housing, fuel, food, tax's and most everything you need to live have risen 5 to 7 times. Much harder today to live.

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by TJ » October 28, 2019, 3:41 am

"In Canada where I live my wages have doubled in the last 30 years, cost of housing, fuel, food, tax's and most everything you need to live have risen 5 to 7 times. Much harder today to live."

For those interested in the effect of price increases on yourselves in particular and on society in general, I recommend the following article.

https://mises.org/library/family-format ... eir-impact

An understanding of today's pending recession is provided by the following article.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory, Explained https://mises.org/wire/austrian-busines ... -explained

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