RECESSION?

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Doodoo
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » December 25, 2019, 9:34 am

Thailand's annual manufacturing output likely fell for the seventh straight month in November, but at a slower pace than in the previous month, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

The manufacturing production index likely fell 7.1% in November from a year earlier, after 8.45% contraction in October, according to the median forecast of six economists.



TJ
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by TJ » December 27, 2019, 12:35 pm

For those who, like me, do not have millions invested in Thailand industries this thread provides no useful information. [-X [-X

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by dragonz » December 27, 2019, 4:06 pm

Doodoo wrote:
December 25, 2019, 9:34 am
Thailand's annual manufacturing output likely fell for the seventh straight month in November, but at a slower pace than in the previous month, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

The manufacturing production index likely fell 7.1% in November from a year earlier, after 8.45% contraction in October, according to the median forecast of six economists.
for those like me who live in thailand and who`s income depends on the thai economy and the baht this is of interest to me .
It seems to me that thailand is starting to stutter . Lots of people coming back to the village lately as lost their jobs . Nobody really know about the thai economy as everything is almost always falsified .To me thgailand is ever expanding at a really fast rate with nothing to show for it . See that in the amount of new hotels in udon , dozens of them while the old ones were almost always empty but nothing seems to affect the baht or the economy . I thing a lot of farangs are hoping the bubble will burst

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Doodoo » December 27, 2019, 4:10 pm

TJ
To help you along hen I would suggest then that you not read this thread if you do not gain any useful information

NongKhaiLee
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by NongKhaiLee » December 30, 2019, 10:45 am

I like to keep up on what's going on, it's especially useful as far as helping the relatives with any plans they are making. (believe it or not they do ask me what I think from time to time)

One of the wife's relatives runs a village weaving guild, most of their orders were from large hotels for table runners, place mats and such, along with a few hand bag and skirt orders. Their orders have dropped pretty dramatically in the past couple of months
Amazingly enough, some other friends and relatives are either planning or in the process of planting rubber trees, even though the price is in the tank and the outlook is grim.

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Drunk Monkey
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Drunk Monkey » December 30, 2019, 10:59 am

NongKhaiLee wrote:
December 30, 2019, 10:45 am
I like to keep up on what's going on, it's especially useful as far as helping the relatives with any plans they are making. (believe it or not they do ask me what I think from time to time)

One of the wife's relatives runs a village weaving guild, most of their orders were from large hotels for table runners, place mats and such, along with a few hand bag and skirt orders. Their orders have dropped pretty dramatically in the past couple of months
Amazingly enough, some other friends and relatives are either planning or in the process of planting rubber trees, even though the price is in the tank and the outlook is grim.
Cant comment on the weaving but the rubber processing certainly has come to a grinding halt .. many many farmers in the Buriram area where DM resides are selling their trees and more taking the older trees out to use the land for other crops including fruit trees etc.
It used to be worth processing the raw rubber into sheets as the price was significantly higher but now not so and most are just selling raw rubber in cup form to save the charges/costs on the machinery to make the sheets.

DM

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by pipoz4444 » December 30, 2019, 12:50 pm

Just keep an eye on the Retail sector and the smaller shops within Central Plaza and the Big C's. They are normally the first to show signs when they can't afford their higher Rents.

If and when you see a few closing down, you will know the slowdown is really starting to bite, the local Udon economy

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dragonz
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by dragonz » December 30, 2019, 3:53 pm

I went to landmark recently and the 2nd floor with all the computers and printers is half empty. And lots of the mobile shops below have also closed . I have a good friend who worked there and he told me cannot make a living there and he has just got a job at telewizz.
I had 5 farang friends who had been in thailand a longish time , all left thailand last year . 2 back to uk , 1 to phillipines, 1 to cambodia and 1 to vietnam
Also have an english friend who has lived her for 18 yrs . good guy works on the boats comes home for a few weeks every 3/4 months and goes to udon .He was very disappointed this time . said all the farang bars were emptier than he had ever seen and was not happy sitting in irish clock alone . This is what HE said!
Keep reading about a gloomy future then out come the rosy glasses telling you everything is fine , the bars are full these guys are lying but i believe my own eyes.
I do not know about the economy but i think the future for expats in thailand is very bleak .
I am already trying to convince my wife to move to phillipines and take my 2 adopted boys with me.I no longer wish to live in this country and would go tomorrow if it was not for the 2 boys

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by jackspratt » December 31, 2019, 9:48 am

dragonz wrote:
December 30, 2019, 3:53 pm
Keep reading about a gloomy future then out come the rosy glasses telling you everything is fine , the bars are full these guys are lying but i believe my own eyes.
I do not know about the economy but i think the future for expats in thailand is very bleak .
I think you will find those of us with the rosy glasses probably don't correlate Thailand's future with the fullness, or otherwise, of farang bars.

But I do see a correlation between those occupy the bars, day in and day out, and bleak outlooks.

ps this is not specific about you, dz.

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tamada
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by tamada » December 31, 2019, 10:14 am

A couple for TJ. Do you see an correlation between Thailand's economy being able to sustain their own people who have a right to live and work here and your ability to enjoy a happy retirement here while contributing virtually nothing? If there is a recession (and there will be), do you consider that it will have absolutely no impact on your life in Thailand?

For DM. I don't often chose to do long distance drives when the rest of the nation is also heading home for the holidays. Do you think there was a higher incidence of flat screen TVs, motorbikes, fridges and assorted, cheap apartment furniture heading home these past few days? You know, like the 'end of contract' relocation or the 'I lost my job a few months back but finally gave up on finding new work anytime soon' relocation? One-way trips maybe?

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tamada
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by tamada » December 31, 2019, 10:44 am

dragonz wrote:
December 30, 2019, 3:53 pm
I went to landmark recently and the 2nd floor with all the computers and printers is half empty. And lots of the mobile shops below have also closed . I have a good friend who worked there and he told me cannot make a living there and he has just got a job at telewizz.
I had 5 farang friends who had been in thailand a longish time , all left thailand last year . 2 back to uk , 1 to phillipines, 1 to cambodia and 1 to vietnam
Also have an english friend who has lived her for 18 yrs . good guy works on the boats comes home for a few weeks every 3/4 months and goes to udon .He was very disappointed this time . said all the farang bars were emptier than he had ever seen and was not happy sitting in irish clock alone . This is what HE said!
Keep reading about a gloomy future then out come the rosy glasses telling you everything is fine , the bars are full these guys are lying but i believe my own eyes.
I do not know about the economy but i think the future for expats in thailand is very bleak .
I am already trying to convince my wife to move to phillipines and take my 2 adopted boys with me.I no longer wish to live in this country and would go tomorrow if it was not for the 2 boys
The rise of online commerce sunk the retail mobile phone and IT outlets and the likes of lazada and shopee are making greater inroads on other areas of traditional high street and mall retail.

Your boat-working mate isn't paying much attention to the details if he only sees less customers in bars and doesn't correlate it with anything more impactful. Hopefully he's thinking more about 'why' this is the situation and planning for a future which may not include Thailand.

The Millennials and Gen Y will have a harder time adapting to what I predict will be a much more dynamic cycle of boom and bust as the global economy moves on. The Gen Z and Centennials will need to be much more fleet of foot and more adaptable to the challenges. As the rules, pacts, unions and alliances both in trade and politics that were drafted and served by their forebears are rescinded and rewritten due to being no longer relevant, they should stay mostly afloat.

The Baby Boomers and Gen X'ers?.. we don't matter much anymore anyway. We're toast.

Happy New Year!

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by pipoz4444 » December 31, 2019, 1:05 pm

Recesson or Not - Expats in Retirement

I am not so pessimistic about Thailand’s long term future and certainly not pessimistic about living in Udon Thani down the track . :D

For sure there will be a slowing down of Thailand’s economy, but this will also happen in and to many other Countries, in the coming years. The World economy and those of all Counties, moves in cycles, all of the time and so this is nothing new. Thailand may well go through a bit of rough period in the next few years, but to suggest that it is all going to be downhill from now (i.e. for the 10 years plus) is just speculation and over the top.

The majority of Asian countries went through as slowdown (some refer to it as a crisis) in 1997/1998, with an outflow of enormous capital, no available finance to any individual for business and expats leaving in droves. But then started to recover a few years later and look where the Asian economies are now. The economies of Asia are now better off and financially stronger than many of those of Europe and carry less Debt. Some Asian countries have implemented reforms and others have significantly grown their outputs, which you can’t say about those in Europe .

Thailand slowing down had to happen at some point, as other neighboring countries ramped up (like Vietnam). It’s called the natural evolution and it’s been happening for 100’s of years, in part driven by the Education of the countries people. My humble view is, that the economies of Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, South Korea, Cambodia, Philippines and Indonesia will simply all adjust to their new relative positions of strength within Asia and the World over the next 5 years, but none of them will become “Failed Economies” and or freefall into Collapse, like the Venezuela, Libya, Nicaragua, Sudan and Pakistan.

Asian people are very smart and also very business minded and so they will endure the short term hardships and then bounce back. It is small business that builds better economies. So too will Thailand adjust and bounce back, as a whole, when the slowdown comes into effect and “If’ it turns out to be a severe/prolonged one. And this is still an “If”. :-k :-k [-(

Back somewhat to the point of an Expats life in Thailand and his ability to have a happy Retirement, my view is, that Thailand and in particular Udon Thani, is still good a place as any in Asia, if someone one has planned his future. The slowdown effect may curtail some expat lifestyle activities, but it is all relevant to what you want in your later years. =D> =D>

As for ones two main expenses in retirement, the Household (in one pays Rent) and Food, both are still very affordable in Thailand, particularly up in Udon Thani and other Isaan cities. The daily lifestyle of one living in Udon Thani has not and is unlikely to significantly change, as it is still very laid back and will continue to be down the track, for the foreseeable future. This is from my perspective and yes I am a "Babyboomer".It may differ for others. \:D/ \:D/

So my question to those who are all doom and gloom about living in Udon Thani in the future and who are planning on leaving is, what exactly are you looking for?? If it’s a bar packed full of expats and or girls, then maybe you should not have settled in Udon Thani in the first place. [-X [-X .

As for advocating living in the Philippines over Thailand, never in a 1000 years. I made a promise to my self some years back, that, "I would never look a a fat arse again". =; In Thailand I can keep that promise to myself, with relative ease, but not a chance to do so in the Philippines. Yes it may be "Chauvinistic", but what is wrong with being one. \:D/ \:D/

Regards

Pipoz4444

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AlexO
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by AlexO » December 31, 2019, 3:46 pm

Agree with everything you say Pipoz4444 except your last paragraph. No fat derrieres in Udon???, I must start going to the places you frequent up here in UT. Apart from that, yip far worse places to live. I can see how and why some guys are struggling a bit, I have just received my first UK State Pension and it pays about 30K Baht every 4 weeks. Many guys have been here long time and have had no increases in pension payments since day one so are obviously under the cosh a bit. UK Gov should hang their heads in shame, but that's another subject. Happy New Year when it comes.

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parrot
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by parrot » December 31, 2019, 4:01 pm

The only draw to Landmark in its early days was Villa. Everything else is duplicated at a bigger and more comfortable Central.
We frequent MK Restaurant either in the old Lotus or Central. A few months after Landmark opened, our friends suggested we go there instead. We did. During what should have been the evening rush hour, we were the only customers there. If Landmark goes the way or a few dozen coffee shops, I chalk it up to bad business decisions rather than recession. If Central starts following the way of Landmark, I'd chalk it up to recession.
I've met a few Americans over the past few years who have moved here....comfy with a pension and now social security. All those GIs who served time here during the VN War and pined to come back....either with a Thai spouse or in search of one (I've known both)....are now at retirement age. I'd love to stand by the doors to Central and take a survey of who might fit that bill.
Lastly.....I've been to the Philippines. I'm trying to imagine living there with a Thai spouse......and Thai kids, to boot. Doesn't compute.
Happy New Year!

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by pipoz4444 » December 31, 2019, 5:10 pm

AlexO wrote:
December 31, 2019, 3:46 pm
Agree with everything you say Pipoz4444 except your last paragraph. No fat derrieres in Udon???, I must start going to the places you frequent up here in UT. Apart from that, yip far worse places to live. I can see how and why some guys are struggling a bit, I have just received my first UK State Pension and it pays about 30K Baht every 4 weeks. Many guys have been here long time and have had no increases in pension payments since day one so are obviously under the cosh a bit. UK Gov should hang their heads in shame, but that's another subject. Happy New Year when it comes.
Hi Alex, and don't get me wrong, I am not saying or suggesting that the Thai ladies or some of them, are not getting bigger around the rear end. They are. [-(

I did say "In Thailand I can keep that promise to myself, with relative ease" and so I am not eliminating the probability of having to walk behind one or two. I just think the frequency of having to see one is much less in Thailand than in the Philippines. Which is enough to keep me happy in my later years, as I can easily cross over to the other side of the street for a nicer view.

Back to Thailand, I just think that Thailand (as a whole) is unfairly being bashed by the Expats at present. Sure, lifestyle and or quality, as they view it, may have changed over the past years for some and may not be anything like it was 15 - 20 years ago. In fact, I was just saying the same to someone over here this morning, that being, that I too have seen the places (Bangkok, Pattaya and Phuket) change since when I first visited in Year 2000, but it is not a total disaster as some wish to portray. It is still a great lifestyle in Thailand compared to what I would have, (in my case) back in Australia. \:D/ \:D/ =D>

I can sympathize with the “Struggle” that some are having because of the respective Governments, disregard for all of its Citizens and the way the Governments have frozen and or even eliminated the pension entitlement, along with wiping out that citizens rights to medical care back in his home Country, for their Citizens who have made the decision to retire overseas.

It is totally wrong and unjust of those Governments, but unfortunately the Political Powers do not care, because very few of us (if any) Vote and we are not in our home Countries voicing our disgust at all the PP's. Also unfortunate is the fact that it doesn’t matter which side of the Political sway is in power, either side will treat their overseas Citizen's like Sh..t [-( [-( :-k

Happy new year to You and Others too. Lets hope that 2020 works out for all of us and that we all hang around to see in 2021

Pipoz4444
Last edited by pipoz4444 on January 1, 2020, 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

glalt
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by glalt » December 31, 2019, 7:58 pm

I'm of the opinion that Thailand will weather the storm with less problems than most other countries. Those who are convinced that the grass is greener elsewhere may be making a serious mistake.

As far as my personal situation, I planned my retirement and am comfortable with a decent monthly surplus. I'll be here until I pop my clogs and my wife will have me cremated.

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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Kenr6583 » January 1, 2020, 6:52 am

UT will never be accused of being a "party town". I've been there when it was 29 baht to the US $, and I've been there when it was 36 baht to the US $. There were many more people out and about when it was 36.

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Raoul Duke
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by Raoul Duke » January 1, 2020, 8:15 am

Makro Nong Bua Lumphu yesterday afternoon the carpark was at capacity.Totally full,and it's a big car park.I had to queue to get into the front door.I was expecting it to be busy,but not what I encountered.
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by tamada » January 1, 2020, 11:07 am

Kenr6583 wrote:
January 1, 2020, 6:52 am
UT will never be accused of being a "party town". I've been there when it was 29 baht to the US $, and I've been there when it was 36 baht to the US $. There were many more people out and about when it was 36.
Yes, but roughly how old were the 'many more people out and about when it was 36' ?

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tamada
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Re: RECESSION?

Post by tamada » January 1, 2020, 11:16 am

Raoul Duke wrote:
January 1, 2020, 8:15 am
Makro Nong Bua Lumphu yesterday afternoon the carpark was at capacity.Totally full,and it's a big car park.I had to queue to get into the front door.I was expecting it to be busy,but not what I encountered.
The kitchen fridge died on 30th so I had to venture out for some parts at Amorn. Big C was heaving but luckily I got a slot kerbside at the payday lender shop between the skylabs so didn't have to endure the covered parking dance. Passing Makro, I observed 3 lanes of traffic trying to make the left-turn into the already chock-full parking lot. I guess that's January's already short paycheck spent!

Last night, we had a traditional Thai dinner on the patio at Casa tam but when the yard started filling up with the moobahn worthies and they fired up the karaoke machine, I slipped off to bed. In true curmudgeonly Scottish Halloween tradition, I had the lights off and grandma's old WWII black out drapes drawn before midnight so that no drunk persons would be tempted to wish the farang chok dee pimai. "Oh, he's gone to sleep already..."

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