U.S. Politics

[Lone Star]

Because you constantly berate anyone who criticized you Therese either anti hate or libs you just won't admit anything so I'll give you what you want I'm no longer going to try and debate with you your past that. By the way how many members did you have on your foe's list and what was the reason you put them on your list.

I wasn't debating you. I was correcting you.

[Lone Star]

Trumps trade war is hurting everyone and its the public that pay the ultimate price.

That's what happens when countries have enjoyed an unfair advantage over the US for too long -- and then it's gone.

[Lone Star]

. . .

Over the past few months, however, much of that has turned to pessimism, thus the problem. He'll obviously need to turn that around before the 2020 election cycle really starts.

And what has caused the pessimism in the markets? What has caused anything to be worse?

Jobs? No. Unemployment? No. Taxation? No. More on Welfare or Food Stamps? No.

There is one component that remained flat for 8 years under the previous administration, but has now ramped up considerably in the last 10 months. Four words: Federal Reserve Interest Rates.

That is what's different, and Trump has no control over Fed interest rates.

A link for the less educated:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/s ... arkets.asp

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/stock-m ... -news.html

Robert Pavlik, chief investment strategist at SlateStone Wealth, said Powell's comments were "exactly what the market was expecting to hear." He added: "Obviously it has to do with the market reaction to his previous comments. He had to walk that back."

Yes, previous statements about a sustained raising of rates created pessimism.

Yes, when the Fed signaled a neutral position on interest rates, the market surged today.

Yes, it is out of Trump's direct control.

STEADY WINNING.

[Udon Map]

Yes, when the Fed signaled a neutral position on interest rates, the market surged today.

Yes, it is out of Trump's direct control.

STEADY WINNING.

Well, sort of. Steady winning until it wasn't any more. As you can see from this chart, showing the DJIA from his November, 2016 election until today's close, it stopped being steady winning around the end of January, 2018. I know that you'll blame it on something else, anything else; but it stopped being steady winning, at least for the DJIA, at the start of the year. Maybe that will change, but, at least for now, the steady winning in the stock market is over, or perhaps we should view it as taking a break.

[Lone Star]

My post never claimed that everything in the market has always been on an upward trajectory. My post today was to show that I was correct about the recent pessimism and downturn. My post today only applauded that upward movement and the fact that I was correct in my assessment.

You chose to make it about a broader time period that was not previously discussed.

However, I'll entertain your efforts to shift the discussion.

There are always corrections (you referred to it as "taking a break") in the market after long periods of upward spikes. These corrections occur throughout market history. Once the bottom was tested, the market moved upward again to its past high (see the dotted line). Not quite the same upward spike, but back to where the market was before the correction.

(See your own chart with my notations.)

Downward Correction -- testing the bottom -- upward movement equal to the previous high -- then the Fed started playing word games (the area that you and I originally addressed).

When the Fed threw a bucket of cold water on all of it in October and November with their talk of plans to consistently raise rates, the outcome was predictable for anyone with stock market savvy. I stated my opinion of the cause of what you termed "Over the past few months, however, much of that has turned to pessimism ...". Yes, past few months -- the area upon which you originally focused.

The fact that the Fed has backed off with their rate-raising talk has put the market back on an upward trajectory -- for now. Of course, there are many things that can have an effect on it. The only solid prediction is that the market will respond to good and bad news accordingly.

The fact that the markets have responded positively to the Fed's neutral stance on rates is a WIN -- no matter how you try to characterize it.

As a side note, three days ago, my stock advisor sent me a "strong buy" signal in the total market with new money. I don't know how he knew, but he has never been wrong over 19 years in helping me to not only reap huge rewards, but also preserve assets on downward turns.

STEADY WINNING.

[pipoz4444]

I think some people are missing the point. Stock Market Indices don't continue to rise month on month, forever, although this does tend to be what the Speculators or Reef Fish look for. Stock Market Indices do go through periods of flat spots (minimum/slow growth cycles), just like the Housing Industry and its valuations, why, probably in part because they are made up of a bag of Companies.

Periods of minimum or slow growth doesn't worry the long term investors like the WB or the Investor who is looking at the potential Dividend Yield return on investment, they tend to see through this cycle. Slow growth, only pisses off the Speculators or Reef Fish, that wish to continuously buy and sell short term.

In my view the Markets need more Long Term Investors, than they need the Speculators or Reef Fish

Yes the DJIA has been relatively steady bounding between 25,000 and 26,000 and 25,000 during Year 2018. It was 25,295 on 05 Jan 2018 and it is now 25,366 on 28 November 2018, but remember it was around/under 18,000 prior to the November 2016 election, when the majority of the media was forecasting that Hilary would win the election and trump had no chance. It then steadily rose after it became apparent that Trump had won the election.

Whether you look at the DJIA gain in just Year 2017 or its gain for the whole period from the time of Trumps election win to now, the DJIA is up by 40%. Not a bad return for those who have invested in it, even for a 2 years period

By comparison in Obama's time the DJIA was 17,832 back on 02 Jan 2015 and then it was 17,888 on 04 Nov 2016. Pretty flat if you ask me for that two year period, with absolutely no gain in DJIA Investment value.

For those who backed Trump and invested in the DJIA, they at least have 40% more in their pocket (based on average values), compared to Obama's last two years in office.

I am forecasting that the DJIA will rise slowly during 2019, to around 27,000 by end of 2019, a modest gain of 8%, but then again, it is still a Gain. =D>

The real question is, "Are the Trump Policies good for the Long Term Investors in the Markets". Share and Indices Values at the end of 2019, will confirm this.

Just my 2 cents worth

pipoz444

[Udon Map]

My post never claimed that everything in the market has always been on an upward trajectory. My post today was to show that I was correct about the recent pessimism and downturn. My post today only applauded that upward movement and the fact that I was correct in my assessment.

You chose to make it about a broader time period that was not previously discussed.

I was responding to this:

So when Trump was elected, people were very optimistic about what he would do for the country, economy, etc.

Sorry, if that wasn't clear.

There are always corrections (you referred to it as "taking a break") in the market after long periods of upward spikes.

Agreed. Time will tell.

STEADY WINNING.

As I said, time will tell.

[tamada]

My post never claimed that everything in the market has always been on an upward trajectory. My post today was to show that I was correct about the recent pessimism and downturn. My post today only applauded that upward movement and the fact that I was correct in my assessment.

You chose to make it about a broader time period that was not previously discussed.

I was responding to this:

So when Trump was elected, people were very optimistic about what he would do for the country, economy, etc.

Sorry, if that wasn't clear.

There are always corrections (you referred to it as "taking a break") in the market after long periods of upward spikes.

Agreed. Time will tell.

STEADY WINNING.

As I said, time will tell.

Markets just did a bounce erasing most of the recent losses overnight.

The MAGA fanboys will be along shortly to affirm that this is just another page turned in DJT's book of miracles.

[Lone Star]

. . .

Whether you look at the DJIA gain in just Year 2017 or its gain for the whole period from the time of Trumps election win to now, the DJIA is up by 40%. Not a bad return for those who have invested in it, even for a 2 years period

By comparison in Obama's time the DJIA was 17,832 back on 02 Jan 2015 and then it was 17,888 on 04 Nov 2016. Pretty flat if you ask me for that two year period, with absolutely no gain in DJIA Investment value.

. . .

Thanks for those numbers, pipoz4444. I knew I was sitting pretty with all of Trump's efforts, but hadn't calculated the exact numbers.

Found this in the Wall Street Journal. Link doesn't do much good. You would need a subscription to view it.

End of Obama vs Beginning of Trump

Obama - GDP growth at 1.5% in final SIX FULL QUARTERS
Trump - GDP growth at 3% in first SIX FULL QUARTERS
(Doubled GDP and achieved a number that Bayrack's economics boys said we'd never see again.)

Obama - New jobs in last 21 months average 900 per month
Trump - New jobs in first 21 months average 75,000 per month

Obama - employed Americans last 21 months average 157,000 per month
Trump - employed Americans first 21 months average 214,000 per month
(36% increase and achieved a number that Bayrack said would require that Trump have a magic wand.)

Add this to all the other record-setting unemployment, employment and wage records. Pretty amazing success.

STILL WINNING.

[Giggle]

None so blind as those who will not see.

[Lone Star]

Some progress -- albeit small -- with US and China on trade.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/01/us-chin ... eport.html

I predict that markets will respond positively.

STEADY WINNING.

[Udon Map]

U.S. and China Call Truce in Trade War

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/01/worl ... f=headline

Definitely a step in the right direction, IMO. But at this point, it's little more than "Let's all play nicely in the sandbox together." Much like the meeting with Kim Jong-un, it's a good and positive aspirational first step as a statement of intent, but that's all it is so far.

The countries set an ambitious deadline of 90 days to reach a broader trade agreement, with the White House warning that if they did not come to terms by then, Mr. Trump would raise the existing tariff rate to 25 percent.

We'll see how it plays out, or doesn't, in 90 days.

[papafarang]

yes looks like Xi got trump to back down, gives china another 90 days. time to visit this thread in 90 days then to see which way it goes . personally I think he just gave china another 90 head start to find more customers.

[Lone Star]

As predicted. WORLD MARKETS responding positively.

London (AFP) – Global equity markets soared Monday after China and the United States clinched a trade war truce, while oil prices surged on expectations of a big production cut.

These figures were taken at approximately 1200 GMT.

London – FTSE 100: UP 2.0 percent at 7,117.56 points

Frankfurt – DAX 30: UP 2.3 percent at 11,512.11

Paris – CAC 40: UP 1.2 percent at 5,064.42

Milan – FTSE MIB – UP 2.0 percent at 19,572.95

EURO STOXX 50: UP 1.8 percent at 3,231.30

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.0 percent at 22,574.76 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng: UP 2.6 percent at 27,182.04(close)

Shanghai – Composite: UP 2.6 percent at 2,654.80 (close)

New York – Dow Jones: UP 0.8 percent at 25,538.46 (close Friday)

Oil – West Texas Intermediate: UP $2.17 at $53.10 per barrel

Oil – Brent Crude: UP $2.30 at $61.76

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1333 from $1.1317

Dollar/yen: UP at 113.58 yen from 113.57

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2721 from $1.2749 at 2200 GMT

Worldwide STEADY WINNING.

[Nigglyb]

My saving certainly took a well needed boost today

Thanks Donald

[vlad]

You can't win against LS so why do you try Dean ??

[GT93]

Because it's kind of fun?

[Lone Star]

Great news today.

Trump announced that Robert Lighthizer will be the lead negotiator in the trade talks with China. He is a hard-liner and was also the leader in putting together the USMCA trade agreement.

I was happy to hear that the 10% tariffs will remain in place during the 90 Day negotiations/truce.

[trekkertony]

The starting point Vlad is well constructed logical thought, both of which are sadly lacking in your contributions thus far.

[dunroaming]

Don't know what anyone else thinks or believes but I'm sick of his Twitter posts that cause market ciaos the following day. Many people live on their pensions which rely on stable markets! Now we have to wait each morning to see what his latest rants are and suffer the consequences. As a fellow Scot can honestly say his mother would be ashamed. Many he's winning in the US but no where else