U.S. Politics

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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by GT93 » August 20, 2019, 2:06 am

$831 per household is quite a whack. This is nuts when the US is running a huge government deficit and only fairly recently cut taxes on wealthy households. Trump and the US economy aren't well placed to cope with a recession.



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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Doodoo » August 20, 2019, 6:15 am


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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 6:35 am

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is reporting that tariffs are having only a small and sporadic effect on consumer prices. This is actually born out in low inflation numbers in the US economy.

Effect of tariffs on selling prices
7% - a significant upward effect
47% - no effect
10% - significant or slight downward effect
35% - slight upward effect

Protectionist tariffs in past US history were usually the result of manufacturers seeking to improve their profits at the higher cost to US consumers. These tariffs of 21st Century America are not having that effect, and they're not 'protectionist' tariffs. They were instituted to level trade imbalances if trading partners were unwilling to agree to free and fair trade.
My source was the New York Fed Report dated in August and released in the last few days. Keep that in mind.

I read 8 of the 10 articles provided. Two required a subscription. Only one article was current and only one article referenced my current source data. Nine of the 10 articles are between 1 month and 5 months old.

And here's all the scary headlines.

1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ng-profits
Bloomberg - the only CURRENT article provided

Ominous headline. It sourced the exact same source as my post with the same data.


-----

2. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/05/busi ... olicy.html
New York Times - July 5, 2019 (Over 1 month old)

BEFORE consumer numbers were released for July.

Ominous headline, but this article did NOT address how suppliers are addressing consumer pricing based on tariffs, which my data specifically addressed.

-----

3. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkf ... holds.html
Liberty Street Economics - May 23, 2019 (Over 2 months old)

BEFORE consumer numbers were released for July.

Ominous headline, but this article did NOT address how suppliers are addressing consumer pricing based on tariffs, which my data specifically addressed. Also contained a DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Opinion piece.

-----

4. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/26/ny-fed- ... month.html
CNBC - March 26, 2019 (Over 4 months old)

BEFORE consumer numbers were released for July.

Ominous headline, but this article did NOT address how suppliers are addressing consumer pricing based on tariffs, which my data specifically addressed.

-----

5. https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-chi ... 1558637654
Wall Street Journal - May 23, 2019 (Over 2 months old)

BEFORE consumer numbers were released for July.

Ominous headline, but the article isn't available without a subscription. Hence, no data to compare.

-----

6. https://www.ft.com/content/24b0214e-7d4 ... 85092ab560
Financial Times London - No date available

Ominous headline, but the article isn't available without a subscription. Hence, no data compare.

-----

7. https://www.aei.org/publication/cost-of ... he-ny-fed/
American Enterprise Institute - May 24, 2019 (Over 2 months old)

BEFORE consumer numbers were released for July.

Ominous headline, but this article did NOT address how suppliers are addressing consumer pricing based on tariffs, which my data specifically addressed.

-----

8. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... 2019-05-23
MarketWatch - May 26, 2019 (Over 2 months old)

BEFORE consumer numbers were released for July.

Ominous headline, but this article did NOT address how suppliers are addressing consumer pricing based on tariffs, which my data specifically addressed.

-----

9. https://time.com/5543384/trump-trade-war-taxes/
Time - March 4, 2019 (Over 5 months old)

BEFORE consumer numbers were released for July.

Ominous headline, but this article did NOT address how suppliers are addressing consumer pricing based on tariffs, which my data specifically addressed.

-----

10. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-chi ... mists-say/
CBS - May 23, 2019 (Over 2 months old)

BEFORE consumer numbers were released for July.

Ominous headline, but this article did NOT address how suppliers are addressing consumer pricing based on tariffs, which my data specifically addressed.

-----

All of those articles are either OLD (except one) or did not address the same data from August 2019 that my data addressed: PRICING of products for consumers by suppliers. Almost every single one of those articles with the scary headlines were full of projections and predictions of how tariffs would adversely affect consumers; and yet, consumer spending data and inflation are not reflecting their predictions. All of their projections were before the Commerce Department's consumer purchasing numbers DOUBLED estimates by the experts. Experts 0.3%. Actual 0.7%. Without autos, the actual was 1.0% -- TRIPLE the estimate.

Only the Bloomberg article sourced the same report that I sourced from the New York Fed. The data is the same. It must also be noted that "input costs" and "consumer pricing" are not the same. Input costs are for the supplier and how they view tariffs affecting their products. Consumer pricing is how the supplier prices their product for the consumer.

To summarize, as a result of the July 2019 Commerce Report: Consumers are still spending much higher than expectations, and inflation is under 1.5%. Consumers don't seem to be fazed by all of these scary outdated headlines from March, May and early July.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Doodoo » August 20, 2019, 6:46 am

Google
"The scum cheered when US troops were killed in Iraq in the same disgusting vein. The absolute worst of humanity'\"
TROLLING, Causing SH-T you need to provide some I dont even want to say positive to this.

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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 6:47 am

.

I guess that's why some "data seems slightly different than earlier submissions concerning the affects of tariffs."

Headlines aren't data.

"I take it" that reading and research beyond headlines "was never a part of training in certain peoples pasts."

There are some people so eager to cheer a potential forum ally that they allow emotion to drive their statements before they bother to read the sources provided and get all the facts.

Not surprisingly, it's the same gudgeon who posts headlines without reading the whole article, and it backfires. Damn. Backfired again.

It's always a good idea to read past the headlines. Read the articles completely. Note the dates. Compare and contrast information, and then summarize concisely.

The media sourced in the 10 links was not about their concern that consumers prepare for a possible downturn in the economy. It wasn't about being helpful. If the media was simply telling a cautionary tale, they would word their alarmism differently and provide helpful tips for investors to lessen their risk. But that isn't the media motive for recession talk.

There is nothing more despicable than a media that is supposed to be the independent watchdog of The People, gaslighting consumers into thinking something is happening of which there is no evidence. In case you're naive enough to attach noble characteristics to these reporters and writers in general, your knowledge of their deeds just in the last 30 months is extremely poor. We're talking about the same media that has printed libelous stories without named sources, pushed political opposition research as factual evidence, published op-eds by unknown authors, changed headlines at the urging of the LIB Thug Mob to reflect poorly on Trump, participated in leaking classified information, has admitted to restructuring their entire newsroom from Trump-Russia to Trump-Racist, and has a public approval rating lower than 20%. The public approval rating of the US Congress is not far behind.

Dem candidates are now gaslighting consumers by echoing the media's recession bullshit. As usual, they have NO specific PLAN as to what they would do to stop a recession -- probably because they have no knowledge of economics. They just like to seize assets and give sh*t away. Just the same old BECAUSE TRUMP. All his fault, you know. Gotta GET TRUMP.

One of those dumbass candidates would rise in polls overnight if they had a real, economically sound plan that would cut spending and keep taxes low. Everything those dumbasses talk about is the opposite: raising taxes and more spending, which will/would kill the economy whether in a recession or not.

And then, pulling up the rear, comes the other gudgeon -- the pissant troll and outlier who outshines everyone in nonsense. Glad enough time lapsed before I posted so he could respond with his usual foolishness.

Reading provides Knowledge. Knowledge is Power.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 7:07 am

.

Mexico is MORE than holding up their end of the bargain with their immigration deal with Trump. This is outstanding news!

Mexico can do whatever they wish with asylum seekers. They are not bound by activist US judges.

Mexican officials began packing these migrants into buses and sending them 750 miles south to the border with Guatemala to wait -- or finally get frustrated enough to go back home and "self deport," which they're always free to do.

The "Remain in Mexico" program agreed upon by Trump and Mexico is genius, since Democrats will not do anything to close the immigration loopholes and stop the incentives for illegal aliens to continue to travel to the southern US border. No way will Democrats give Trump or the American People a win in immigration.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Doodoo » August 20, 2019, 7:46 am

"Knowledge is Power."

In the Right Hands

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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Doodoo » August 20, 2019, 8:00 am

J.P. Morgan has to be full of Demcrats. Why else would they come out with news that wants to bring down the economy of the USA Dirty Commies.

Tariffs will now cost American households up to $1,000 per year: J.P. Morgan
l
Tariffs are expected to cost American households up to $1,000 per year when the next round goes into effect on September 1, according to a new note by J.P. Morgan.

According to the bank’s analysts, the cost of the U.S.-China trade war borne by consumers is likely to rise from around $600 per year — based on the first two “phases” of the tariffs on Chinese imports — to around $1,000, based on the third round of tariffs.

That $1,000 figure assumes a 10% tariff on about $112 billion of Chinese imports, which U.S. President Donald Trump announced will begin next month. While he had initially proposed 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, he later scaled it back to exclude certain consumer products like cell phones, laptops, and toys.

If the tariff increase to 25% — as President Trump has threatened — the cost to consumers would rise to $1,500 per year, J.P. Morgan stated.

“What distinguishes China Phase III tariffs from preceding tariffs is the impact to Consumption and Capital goods,” analysts wrote. While previous tariffs focused more on “intermediate goods,” this batch “suggests that the expected consumer impact should be larger in the latest round,” the bank’s analysts wrote.

Tariff costs offset gains from the tax cut
The $1,000 cost is also expected to offset the majority of the benefit that American households received from the Tax Act, the analysts added, which was around $1,300.

“The impact from reduced spending could be immediate for discretionary goods and services since tariffs are regressive,” they wrote. “Unlike the agriculture sector which is receiving subsidies/aid to offset the impact of China’s retaliatory actions, there is no simple way to compensate consumers.”

Since this move comes at a “much higher cost for the U.S. administration” ahead of a presidential election, the analysts noted that there was “a good chance they end up reversing their decision and finding a way to reach some common ground with Chinese negotiators.”

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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 8:07 am

. . . expected . . . likely . . . assumes . . . next month . . . If . . . should be . . . expected . . . could be . . . a good chance . . .
More gaslighting from another bank heavily invested in globalist endeavors.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 8:15 am

.

Apparently, investors have realized that they over-reacted to the "silly" prediction of recession as a result of the inverted yield curve. Markets responded positively again on Monday recovering much of the losses from the hysteria propagandized last week.

The data from July 2019, released by the US Commerce Department on Thursday, showed strong consumer spending that beat expectations easily. The stock market rebound started last week when that data was released and continued after the weekend.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by GT93 » August 20, 2019, 8:23 am

$1,500 a year. :shock:

Trump hasn't got the balls to go that high for long in 2020. The Chinese know it. I think Trump will have pissed the Chinese off enough that they'll be campaigning for the Democrats. Putin, Jong-un, Bone Saw, Netanyahu and Johnson are probably on Team Trump.

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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Doodoo » August 20, 2019, 8:57 am

". . expected . . . likely . . . assumes . . . next month . . . If . . . should be . . . expected . . . could be . . . a good chance . . ."

OK lets look at what has happened then
"Was...happened...in the past... prior... completed"

Dow July 16th 27,335.
Dow Yesterday 26,135

MINUS 1200 points
Still GAINING

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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Doodoo » August 20, 2019, 1:20 pm

"WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military has conducted a flight test of a type of missile banned for more than 30 years by a treaty that both the United States and Russia abandoned this month, the Pentagon said."

Now who gets to slag the US over testing of such weapons? And why are they testing after a 30 year stoppage? what is to gain? where will it all end ?

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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 1:58 pm

.

Gee, this is odd. A poll that shows Trump winning vs all the leading Democrat candidates.

Zogby Analytics/24/7 Wall St. poll that came out yesterday.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 2:20 pm

.

The ICE raids in Mississippi seem to be having an impact on the activity of illegal aliens.

A large number of Georgia food processing plants saw illegal aliens abandon their jobs and virtually disappear after ICE agents raided businesses in nearby Mississippi and arrest almost 700 illegal aliens.

Since those raids, the processing plants in Mississippi have started hiring US citizens to replace the illegals.

Enforcing laws that are already on the books and removing incentives are usually enough to stem the tide of illegal aliens trying to flood the southern border. Working with foreign countries south of the border has also helped the US to bypass activist judges and a Democrat party in the House that works diligently to thwart immigration enforcement.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 2:32 pm

.

Trump and BoJo continue to talk US-UK trade deals.

Another telephone conversation occurred between Trump and BoJo to discuss a wide range of issues facing both countries. BoJo provided an update on Brexit in the process.

With the G7 occurring later this month, there are rumors swirling that a post-Brexit trade deal between the two countries could be announced there, but at the very least continue in negotiations.

The upside in such a deal between the two countries would be massive for both and could turn the UK into a worldwide trade hub that would be a boon to their economy. Companies in Europe would be able to get tariff-free access to US markets by moving operations to the UK or using transnational shipping. Reciprocally, the US could ship tariff-free into the EU by going through the UK companies or EU subsidiaries of a US business.

The upside for the UK is tremendous, and it further insulates US Main Street from the global risks.

STEADY WINNING.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 3:03 pm

.

Many seem to be having the same problem with The Fed: Powell doesn't communicate well.

Some are predicting that if Powell doesn't address the current issues well on Thursday, that the markets could have a pretty volatile reaction.

Many believe that the Fed moved to quickly to raise rates since the economy started booming, and now they're having to pare things back to keep an even keel -- which is their job.

Powell was successful once in calming Wall Street back in early January, so he IS capable.

The Fed is in a position where they can be blamed no matter what they do, so Powell better lead wisely and communicate well and clearly.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 3:07 pm



Rubenstein does a great job of explaining recessions and the folly of the current "10 minute inverted yield curve." This is probably one of the most unbiased explanations that I've seen lately.

The title of the video is NOT accurate. The title makes it appear that a recession is coming quickly. NOT.

Watch!
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Doodoo » August 20, 2019, 3:38 pm

Lip Service

"Of the 897 respondents, 46 percent chose Trump, 45 percent chose Biden, and nine percent said they were unsure. While Biden fares better with millennial voters– 50 percent to Trump’s 38 percent – Trump does better with voters 65 and older, 56 percent to 40 percent. Trump also leads Biden among independent voters, 44 percent to Biden’s 36 percent."

Again LS "Every poll I post is wrong. Every poll you(Udon Map) post is correct. Deal."

So why oh why post the results of posts?? "I Gotta Felling" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF9lNofZXqs you just want to_______??????

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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Lone Star » August 20, 2019, 3:55 pm

. . .
So why oh why post the results of posts??
. . .
Emotion. Image
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