Post Covid ecomony

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tamada
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by tamada » September 20, 2021, 4:07 pm

Drunk Monkey wrote:
September 20, 2021, 2:53 pm
Here is a possible post covid boost that would certainly make a few smile :D :D .. it would come as a huge surprise but its looking more likely as its tied into the snag a foreigner scheme .. duty on imported alcohol to be reduced by 50% for 5 years ... im loving the sound of this and may soon be able to buy some new flip flops.

more info here

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/21 ... foreigners

DM
Good news indeed. Need to see that in the Royal Gazette before getting too excited though, no?

I've already bought my years supply of cigars while passing through Doha. I wonder if this information will trickle down to the Customs orifice at Laem Chabang. They've been insisting for years that anyone ordering cigars from overseas need to have a tobacco import license otherwise they seize your 'import' and return it to sender.

The upside of course is copious amounts of cheaper imported piss to drink while savoring a fine cigar outside The Tap just like in the good old days.

Oh, wait...


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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Drunk Monkey » September 22, 2021, 10:43 am

tamada wrote:
September 20, 2021, 4:07 pm
Drunk Monkey wrote:
September 20, 2021, 2:53 pm
Here is a possible post covid boost that would certainly make a few smile :D :D .. it would come as a huge surprise but its looking more likely as its tied into the snag a foreigner scheme .. duty on imported alcohol to be reduced by 50% for 5 years ... im loving the sound of this and may soon be able to buy some new flip flops.

more info here

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/21 ... foreigners

DM
Good news indeed. Need to see that in the Royal Gazette before getting too excited though, no?

I've already bought my years supply of cigars while passing through Doha. I wonder if this information will trickle down to the Customs orifice at Laem Chabang. They've been insisting for years that anyone ordering cigars from overseas need to have a tobacco import license otherwise they seize your 'import' and return it to sender.

The upside of course is copious amounts of cheaper imported piss to drink while savoring a fine cigar outside The Tap just like in the good old days.

Oh, wait...
Hold on with the good news there Tam ... on the booze front ..

Firstly just why the government think this will increase the number of well heeled foreigners coming here is a tad strange .. would a few baht on a bottle of booze make any real difference ????

More so talking to my Bizz colleagues in Bkk who deal mostly with the customs side of the business who have all commented very similarly that IF ..thats IF this proposed reduction in duty does come into effect it wont make that much difference as other factors due to covid will have to be considered mainly being shipping costs ..

Example;
Before covid a container n shipping from Europe was circa 2k dollars .. over the last 18 months this has been steadily increasing to todays over 4 to 4,500 dollars so bearing in mind the duty on an average container is 100k baht all this reduction will do is cover the extra costs of getting the product here .. currently the European products for instance carry a combined customs tariff charge and the tax duty of 65% ..this being reduced to 32.5 % (depending on the products origin etc ) may just cover the extra costs of shipping but doubtful.

Im not seeing any reduction in prices at distribution level and /or over the bar what it does mean this will stave off any increases in price that were planned to cover the crazy shipping increases ... this is easy to check google the price of a container pre covid and today there is a huge difference being put down to a shortage in the number of available containers and the down turn in product movements.

My new flip flops may have to wait.

DM
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by shergar » September 22, 2021, 1:10 pm

Thats what all the sellers say, always exuses

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Drunk Monkey » September 22, 2021, 1:35 pm

shergar wrote:
September 22, 2021, 1:10 pm
Thats what all the sellers say, always exuses
I knew that was coming ...didnt take long .. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Quick maths ..purchase prices in Europe have remained pretty stable ...
example , a 500ml can of beer imported from the UK is distributed here at circa 100bt .. of that 100 bt - 19 bt is the combined customs tarff and labeling charge 8 bt leaving 11 bt duty/tax per can .. 50% reduction would mean a saving of 5.5 bt per can .. 24 cans per case equates to 132 per case. Obviously bearing in mind some of the taxes are based on country of orgin , alcohol ABV % and bottle /can size these numbers change but its all relative to the expenses incurred buying it at source and getting it here then cleared to be distributed.
Now factor in the huge increases in the cost of shipping container movements (google it its all there) i fully understand why most importers i know are saying nothing will really change.

As ever its all down to the retail market and over the bar demand ..and same as choosing a vaccine option or not getting vacced at all its all down to the individual what they wish to spend on a beer , a car , etc etc .. too expensive dont buy it

NO EXCUSES NEEDED FROM ME .. only common sense facts from source in Bkk.

No news on any changes re opening up things in Bkk .. rumour has it bars n clubs etc wont open until 1 st November but ware housing etc from 1st October so long as the units operating within a zone stay covid free.
Places in Isan are opening .. some as early as last Saturday some this weekend other 1 st October so hopefully we can get things going again.

DM
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Drunk Monkey » December 8, 2021, 6:34 pm

A few bizz colleagues met up in Bkk yesterday eve n its becoming more apparent just how badly this whole covid pandemic has effected business in general ..obviously the booze industry has taken a severe hit.
Isan has been effected way less than the likes of Bkk Patts n Phuket etc with many venues closed never to re open ..to date we have only lost 2 Isan customers which is a testament to how established they and we have become over the last few years ..
There will be an imported beverage shortage for sure with several.importers closing down totally .. others not filling containers at source due to the current stupid costs invloved .. fortunately our Belgian range has incredibly long exp dates to 2023-5 and the ware housing is still well stocked .. the only others i know soldiering on are the importers of BruDog ..others will pack in for sure IMO.
Alarming chat that 2023 we may see better prices on containers abd some normality .. but who knws what will happen throughout 2022

The knock on effect will be felt for years not months and whose to say there isnt another serious variant or even a totally new virus manifesting in a lab or wet market some where...lets hope n pray not.

International tourism will.take long while to return in any real numbers .. again the knock on effect to all involved n their families .. that will effect every business sector in some way shape or form...some more thaan others.

Keep.the faith .. keep calm , keep safe .. and have a cuppa tea

Not doom.n gloom just the opinion of a few business ppl.in the metropolis and isan.

DM
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by stattointhailand » December 8, 2021, 6:51 pm

DM, I keep hearing news reports that thousands of containers are being held up in UK and on West coast of USA causing a whole raft of other problems including shortages of "empties" being returned and ships having to queue out at sea for up to 3 weeks to land and unload. Not sure of the "knock on" effects to Thailand, but I suspect that costs will rise to cover the additional containers needed and extra time taken.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Drunk Monkey » December 8, 2021, 6:58 pm

Yes .. hold ups and shortage of empties is causing huge problems .. a container from.Europe was 2200 dollars plus tax 2 yrs ago .. last price 4800 plus .. so rather than fill n send and put up.prices we just cancelled it.
The draft wine kegs from.Spain is still arriving plus some Belg products but all UK stuff was,stopped.
Its a reet mess n will take a while to get back to normal.

Hong Kong n more so Singapore asAsian hubs are swamped with empties that are stuck there

More tea Vicar ??

DM
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by stattointhailand » December 8, 2021, 7:33 pm

Notice I didn't mention the "B" word DM?

Mind you things is abart ta get a whole lot worse in Jan when a whole new raft of regulations begin to kick in 8-[ :-$

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by pipoz4444 » December 24, 2021, 5:04 pm

Drunk Monkey wrote:
December 8, 2021, 6:34 pm
A few bizz colleagues met up in Bkk yesterday eve n its becoming more apparent just how badly this whole covid pandemic has effected business in general ..obviously the booze industry has taken a severe hit.
Isan has been effected way less than the likes of Bkk Patts n Phuket etc with many venues closed never to re open ..to date we have only lost 2 Isan customers which is a testament to how established they and we have become over the last few years ..
The knock on effect will be felt for years not months and whose to say there isnt another serious variant or even a totally new virus manifesting in a lab or wet market some where...lets hope n pray not.
International tourism will.take long while to return in any real numbers .. again the knock on effect to all involved n their families .. that will effect every business sector in some way shape or form...some more thaan others.

Keep.the faith .. keep calm , keep safe .. and have a cuppa tea.
Not doom.n gloom just the opinion of a few business ppl.in the metropolis and isan.

DM
Spent the last 40 Days in Thailand, entering via Phuket, where I stayed for 10 days. Then jumped to Bangkok (3 days), Udon Thani (14 Days), Pattaya and the last 11 Days back in Bangkok.

PHUKET: Phuket as a whole, was still suffering, with hit and miss activity of some everyday businesses open and obviously much more nightlife in Bangla Road. But no major shopping centers open. Some businesses on and directly adjaoining Bangla Road appeared to doing very well, but I am not convinced it was for the day/full night, maybe just a few hours of being a hot spot.

However, there were still a lot of businesses outside of immediate Bangla Road and the Beach areas, that are shuttered up and or even stripped out, with no signs of opening any time soon. [-( :-k :-k

Obviously, Phuket is a long way down from its tourist numbers, of 2019 (9.89 Mill). Nevertheless, I get the feeling at Phuket (Patong Beach area) is still several years away from getting its Tourist numbers back to a reasonable level, even back up to 50% of what they were in 2019. I just don't more than 75% of these businesses ever re-opening, for a long long time, unless there are a lot of new investors out there ready to jump in an take a punt.

Then go outside of Patong, down to Karon and particularly Kata Beach and it is a lot worst, for businesses in general. From what I observed, it will be a long road back to some sort of reduced/limited activity in the areas outside of the Patong Beach center. Kata Beach area is still appeared to be decimated, with only an occasional shop, restaurant, massage shop, pharmacy hotel and bar open, with customers being few and far between.

Just not enough walk buy or even drive by, Customers in the Kata beach area, at present to justify many of the businesses re-opening, at the same time. I fear will be for quite a while for business normality to return. Lets hope that I am wrong. :-k :-k

BANGKOK: My stay and travel was sort of limited to the general Sukhumvit area, from Nana to Ekkamai, but I was pleasantly surprised at the level of activity that I saw in many restaurants, small shops, markets and bars, both in the day and also in the evening/night. Quite a few are open/operating and with steady streams of customers/patrons, if not full, in several cases.

Particularly in Phrom Phong and Thonglor, where I actually needed to wait to get into a restaurant for a seat, even in the early part of the afternoon, around 2.00pm. OK the wait was only about 20 minutes, but the restaurants and adjoining market eatery areas, seemed to be very busy, if not packed in some cases. Same with the Food Courts in early afternoon, in several major shopping centers, such as the EmQuartier and Terminal 21, both of which were very busy each day. Soi 8 Nana was also very lively each night, in the restaurants and bars.

Ok it is only a snap shop of Bangkok, at that time, but it gave me hope that this part of Bangkok, could well be back to near normal in 12 months, if not sooner. It looked very promising down Sukhumvit way. Can't speak for other areas of Bangkok. \:D/


I think it is going to be a much different tourist world environment for the Hospitality industry, for many years to come in Thailand, especially in places such as Phuket and Pattaya.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by pipoz4444 » April 14, 2022, 11:24 am

So four months on, and what do you think about the improvement or otherwise, in the Phuket economy

Has anyone been there of late. Does it look like it is improving, going backwards or just stangnating :-k

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by pipoz4444 » July 1, 2022, 3:49 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
July 7, 2021, 7:30 pm
This may help the Thai tourist industry, if only it becomes a reality. :-k :-k

The Thai Baht Forecast for 2021 - 2022

35 or 36 to the USD would be nice for all travelers


Capture 10 Thai Baht Forecast.PNG


https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast

pipoz4444
Here we are a year on and the Table was a pretty good forecast of things to come, with the US to Baht now trading at above 35, since mid June this year

Table from July 2021
Capture 10 Thai Baht Forecast (1).PNG
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by stattointhailand » July 2, 2022, 12:51 pm

Or alternately based on the fact that Thailand gets hit by the various strains approx 2 months after UK, the end of July beginning of Aug should see the latest "spike" of covid, which would put another nail in the "high season" coffin.
UK announced that currently there have been 2.2k infections in the last 7 days (1 person in 18 in Scotland and 1 in 30 in England :-& )

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by rick » July 3, 2022, 7:27 pm

stattointhailand wrote:
July 2, 2022, 12:51 pm
Or alternately based on the fact that Thailand gets hit by the various strains approx 2 months after UK, the end of July beginning of Aug should see the latest "spike" of covid, which would put another nail in the "high season" coffin.
UK announced that currently there have been 2.2k infections in the last 7 days (1 person in 18 in Scotland and 1 in 30 in England :-& )
Your out by a factor of a 1000, actually 2.2 MILLION.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by jackspratt » July 3, 2022, 7:31 pm

statto's been struggling with that dodgy calculator for some time now.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by fatbob » July 4, 2022, 7:32 am

Maybe its just time to get on with life, stop analysing numbers and freeting about catching a cold, there are better things in life....

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by GT93 » July 8, 2022, 12:46 am

Catching a cold? Nonsense. Hospitals are full and health systems are really struggling. The numbers of those with Long Covid continue to climb. This is likely to be so for years. Many many people are not receiving the medical treatment they would otherwise receive if health systems weren't under Covid pressure. The virus continues to evolve. Covid remains a public health disaster.
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by pipoz4444 » July 9, 2022, 7:00 pm

I haven't been back in Thailand for just over six months, but I gather from some of the comments that have been posted and a few snippets of News that I have seen, the Thailand economic recovery has been a lot slower than what the Thai government had hoped for. Especially in the Tourism and Hospitality sectors.

Ignoring the over optimistic forecast of predicted tourist numbers for the year ending 2022, by the TG, the reality is that for the first six months, it looks likes this, below. A far cry from yester years. :roll: :-k :-k :yikes:

Only 1.312 Million touists for the first five months, at and average of 262,490 tourist per month. Granted the second half of 2022 should see an improvement on the first half, but it is still a hard road forward to reach their minimum forecast of 5.0 or 7.) Mill Tourist for Year 2022 (depends on what paper you read)

2022 Thailand Tourism Numbers 1.PNG
2022 Thailand Tourism Numbers.PNG


My curiosity is more about Phuket (Patong to Kata) and how the general businesses are is faring these days, that is if anyone has visited them recently. I wondered whether the place has improved noticeably from six months ago and if it is worth another visit or is it pretty much the same as December? :-k :-k

When I was there, only a small scattering of businesses were open in localized areas. Mostly on the main roads centered around the Patong Beach and Bangla Road area. Not too much open, when you got away from the beach road area and very very little open in Karon and Kata beach areas.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by jackspratt » July 9, 2022, 8:06 pm

GT93 wrote:
July 8, 2022, 12:46 am
Catching a cold? Nonsense. Hospitals are full and health systems are really struggling. The numbers of those with Long Covid continue to climb. This is likely to be so for years. Many many people are not receiving the medical treatment they would otherwise receive if health systems weren't under Covid pressure. The virus continues to evolve. Covid remains a public health disaster.
Love to know the statistics for those hospitalised, and/or dying from colds.

Can you point the way, 93?

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by stattointhailand » July 9, 2022, 8:12 pm

Rumour that they are considering re opening all the currently closed Malls in Phuket probably next month.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by GT93 » July 10, 2022, 1:46 am

jackspratt wrote:
July 9, 2022, 8:06 pm
GT93 wrote:
July 8, 2022, 12:46 am
Catching a cold? Nonsense. Hospitals are full and health systems are really struggling. The numbers of those with Long Covid continue to climb. This is likely to be so for years. Many many people are not receiving the medical treatment they would otherwise receive if health systems weren't under Covid pressure. The virus continues to evolve. Covid remains a public health disaster.
Love to know the statistics for those hospitalised, and/or dying from colds.

Can you point the way, 93?
Yes, I saw them just after I posted. I read three times as many people in NZ were in hospital from the flu as from Covid. I think that statistic is misleading as to the havoc Covid is causing.

There are calls that NZ should currently go to its highest alert level for Covid. Older people currently tend to wear masks but young people don't. I think the government sees people as simply too unco-operative now to reintroduce compulsory masking in more settings. The deaths will continue. The huge amount of lost work time will continue. The impact of Long Covid will grow.

When I walk past a cafe or restaurant, I think people are mad to be in there. Particularly older folks. I'm not going to sit in a cafe or a restaurant for the next month while, I think it's called the BA 5 variant, sweeps through the country.
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