November is as good a guess as any. Personally, I see the goalposts constantly moving away as the absurdities of tourist bubbles anywhere become apparent. I was reading that the latest Thai government shift is away from bubbles of regular tourism to bubbles of high-value or "rich tourists". I doubt the vast amount of 2 and 3 star hotels here will be liking that latest brainstorm.pipoz4444 wrote: ↑June 20, 2020, 3:51 pmMy gut told me this back in May, that Thailand would possibly allow,
New Zealand & Australian Passport holders to enter as tourists on 01 September 2020
Some European Passport holders to enter as tourists on 01 September 2020
And this back when both New Zealand & Australia, seemed to have the Covid-19 under control, with very low and or no new case numbers.
But even now, I don't believe that September will happen, with many Tourists being accepted for re-entry into Thailand - it will get postponed, for several reasons,
1.Not all other Countries will allow their people to travel outside of their home Country by September. Those that do allow them to, will undoubtedly impose restrictions on their Nationals, when you return home, such as a forced to do 14 days Quarantine (additional holiday) in their home Country. Any such restriction when one returns home country, by way of a further Quarantine, is a huge disincentive to travel in the first place. Why would anyone take 28 Days accrued annual leave, just to holiday for 2 weeks elsewhere? Makes that one holiday a very expensive one?
2. By September 2020, their will not be too many Counties in the good book with Thailand, with reciprocal travel agreement or bubbles as some like to refer to. By that I mean most Countries will still be battling the pandemic and most like still have new daily case numbers daily, above what the Thai Immigration will consider as an acceptable limit, in which case it will scare the T I Sh..tless.
3..Combine the above, with the reoccurring spikes in new case numbers, recently seen in some Counties such as NZ, Australia & Japan, who arguably have Covid-19 under control, and this will only signal to the Thai’s that, Tourists from those Countries without very good control of the Virus, simply can’t be trusted and or carry too high a risk to let them back into Thailand. Few Countries will fall into the acceptable low risk category (from a Thai perspective), with low new case numbers and very very few will have been free for the past 28 days, by September 2020. To me it is more like November 2020, before Countries the can achieve this low risk status.
All Countries need to get their “Duck in Row”, before Countries can reach their reciprocal travel protocols in place, to such an extent that traveling from one country to the next is not a pain in the ar...e.
Just a view from a far
Personally, I doesn't worry me at this stage, as I have 18 months more in this place and hopefully after that Thailand for good, assuming they still accept Farang's for Retirement.
I think Australians already need to apply for permission to travel overseas. I don't think it's an outright vetting of reasons to travel with "non-essential" being knocked back. More of another bit of a track and trace registration effort that in itself will serve as a deterrent to the less ardent. Your point about adding up to 28 days of quarantine making any vacation an extremely expensive affair goes with my opinion that the only frequent fliers in the future will be essential workers and businessmen... and the rich and indolent. May be an opportunity to snap up someone's bargain, unusable "second home" farmhouse in France or villa in Tuscany and make it the practical first (and only) home?
Globally, add to the mix the reversal of "flu season" between northern and summer hemispheres, getting the ducks in a row will be nigh impossible. The only upside of that at the moment is Bolsonaro's joust with Brazilian history is south of the equator. Just think if we had that single public health care disaster going on in the middle of Europe right now, it would make the UK look like the Covid-19 success story its government is still peddling.
Regionally and locally, what I can see is low-level, controlled and commercially relevant border crossings for local nationals between bordering nations. Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia and Myanmar will have reciprocal short-term visit arrangements where individuals will need to register and pre-qualify to cross. If things do go apeshit overnight, borders slam shut without the drama of airports, airplanes and thousands of stranded foreigners.