Kenr6583 wrote: ↑
September 20, 2020, 3:56 am
pipoz4444 wrote: ↑
September 19, 2020, 1:32 pm
Year 2021 and Beyond: The extension of the scenarios into 2021, point to a change in trend next year, based on the assumptions of a gradual and linear lifting of travel restrictions, the availability of a vaccine or treatment and a return of traveler confidence. Nonetheless, despite this, the return to 2019 levels in terms of tourist arrivals would take between 2½ to 4 years.
Don't know about the rest of the world, but here in the United States we're going to have a vaccine in October, so I should be in Thailand in November......(sarcasm of course)
That being said, do you think it is the traveler confidence that is waning, or just the fact that the countries are not opened up and the restrictions and requirements they are going to impose are too much of an inconvenience or hassle?
Hi Ken and I think it is more the later
People tend to go on holidays to relax or enjoy themselves and not jump through onerous excessively complicated regulatory procedures/hoops. To me, this will be the first deterrent or turn off to those looking for a relaxing time elsewhere. If the initial travel process doesn’t ease up, then I believe a significant number of travelers will look for that less complicated travel options, where ever it might be, maybe closer to home and with minimum restrictions or complications on them. The current and immediate process is for sure, an inconvenience, if not more.
People also go on holidays with the view of enjoying themselves financially. Many have to save for their holiday in advance. People who come back from a holiday having overspent, often feel like they haven’t had one at all, particularly if they are then having to pay off that holiday over the next six months. The idea of having to save and spend a sh...t load, before you even spend your first day at the beach, is or has been up to now, foreign to most travelers. This in itself will be another turn off a more (not all).
Combine the two and for sure, this has to put a dent in the number of people who are now considering taking several holidays a year, when once they were affordable in both time and cost. My view is that many will rethink and now only take one holiday each year. This will reshape the future number of monthly travelers, junketing it around the world.
If I and a few guys that I work with are any example, we have been taking 6 to 8 trips per year to Thailand for the past 12 years, staying for a week or less each trip. Even if the restrictions into Thailand were lifted tomorrow, to a reduced 5-7 days quarantine period, we would scale our number of trips to Thailand back to 3 per year. We may not be your average “A typical” tourists, but I am sure that many others will also scale back on their yearly trips overseas for their own reasons, even if and when there are reduced restrictions on entry, down the track
I don’t think it is a "Traveler Confidence" issue, but rather, in part, a mind reset of one priorities in life, largely due to the threat of the same thing (a future pandemic) happening again, always being in the back of your mind.
Just my 2 cent worth