From a personal point, I would like the Thailand economic situation to remain uncertain and disrupted to a degree for another 15 months, say until July 2022. I am referring to its ability to recover, the pace at which businesses are permitted to and return to normality, along with some continuance of disruption of the Tourism industry and uncertainty to travel Thailand. I am not advocating for the continuance of Covid-19, but I do wish that that Thai economy will slow down much more and remain at a slower pace for the next 2 - 3 years.
The forecast and actuality of a slower economy will help pull that Thai Baht back, possibly to B 33-34 to the USD, and so create a better long term environment to attract encourage people to return to Thailand. If and when the travel industry around the world starts to crank up again, with many Countries opening up their borders at the same time, there will be a lot of competition for the Tourists. The last any Country wants when faced with a very a competitive tourist market, is an over-strong Currency, as Tourists will simply go elsewhere, short term and even maybe for good. Many Tourist are "Creatures of Habit" meaning they will only go back to places they like if they feel comfortable, where they feel they get value for money and pulling the Thai Baht back from the low 30’s to say 33.5 TB to the USD, will just make that in-country holiday spending go 10% further and appeal to those who are. Maybe even entice them to become repeat Tourists again.
A weaker Thai Baht will also help some of the other Thai industry sectors to recover, such as the Manufacturing and Exporting. Granted , it is a balancing act, between them Manufacturers and Exports having a better environment in which to recover and keeping the Tourism industry quiet. But you need the later, to help weaken that Thai Baht , in my view. From what I have read Thailand Exports of Goods & Services account for 2 /3 of its GDP, made up predominantly of machinery, electronic, automotive, chemical, plastic, textiles and these need to be sustained for Thai local employment, more so than Tourism. Tourism will eventually and always recover over time to some extent, but Factories stay shut for every once they lose their competitive edge.
Arguably Inflation would be also be lower and day to day prices for what one buys and spend on would not rise sharply, as some have done in the past 10 years since, in the Tourism industry as the industry cranked up from
11.74 M in 2004
15.94 M in 2010
24.81 m in 2014
32.53M in 2016
39.92 M in 2019
That’s a pretty step curve and not one that many Counties can match. That’s a 250% increase in Tourist umbers over the past 9 years
Looking at some of the recent You-Tube posts, I can understand how a slower Phuket or Pattaya, would appeal to many already living in Thailand, and how it would possibly attract a better group of Tourist, to a place less crowded with "Sightseers" and one where people stayed longer and spent more per day. There are a lot of "Sightseer Grubs" on the You-Tube posts in both Phuket or Pattaya.
Tell me that I am wrong.
Likewise, a slower Thai economy over the next 15-20 months, will hopefully cool down the Thai Condo Property market, forcing some developers to suspend their Development in the short term and others to lower /discount their prices, hence possibly removing some of the over-supply of the newer Condo Properties sale from Market, particularly if the Thai Baht also weakens. Speculation will reduce and it is a good thing to slow a Property market down at any opportunity. Just look at the lunacy going on in property market in Sydney, Melbourne and elsewhere in Australia at present.
A healthy economy is one that grows steadily and have resilient industries over many sectors which can sustain impact to some extend from outside event, such as Covid-19. Having too much dependence on Tourism is not a good way to grow your domestic economy, as it adds little long term value to it. It’s a bit like living off earnings from a Casino, it great while you are winning, but not so greet after you bet and lose your house.
Just my spiel for today and I wish for a slower pace in Thailand, over the coming few years.
Now back to the day job.
if I can remember what it is.
pipoz4444
