A little ray of sunshine from Australia

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Whistler
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A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by Whistler » April 4, 2020, 4:09 pm

The Australian Federal government was a bit slow out of the blocks, but then really took this seriously. There have been mistakes made, but these are unique times and that was bound to happen.

I am no fan of 'Scott from Marketing', but a combination of state leaders stepping up to the mark, and the country in the main getting behind the social distancing message, and Oz growth rates have slowed to an encouraging point. Testing is at a high level, unlike the USA and UK who only test when the bleeding obvious says the patient has an infection, Australia is testing at a very high rate, if you are close to contact with a COVID 19 patient, there is a good chance you will be tested.

Hats off to the government, better late than never.

- Enforce and encourage social distancing
- Test the bejesus out of the vulnerable
- Don't soft soap the message

Japan & South Korea are also great examples of taking this menace head on

https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-will ... 54gxb.html


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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by Whistler » April 4, 2020, 6:11 pm

noosard wrote:
April 4, 2020, 5:49 pm
But oz has gone dont wear a mask unless sick road
The CMO is not standing alone, nor is he on shaky ground. There are multiple schools of thought here. The results in Oz are the best indicator that approaches implemented are working

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-w ... --c-901591
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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 10:05 am

Australians can expect to be cooped up in isolation until summer, based on yet-to-be-released modelling that reveals the number of hospitalised coronavirus cases won’t peak until the end of October.
And yet there seems to be an evangelical zeal in the imposition of ever-increasing restrictions, even as the curve appears to be flattening and the battle appears to be turning as a result of measures taken days and weeks ago.

And some of these crackdowns seem to be based far more on public and political panic than calm and considered advice. One wonders what the medical opinion is on banning couples from bonking in Victoria or fining someone $1000 for eating a kebab on a bench in NSW or using drones to disperse parkgoers in WA.

Even more perplexing are those who are openly calling for the government to place even harsher restrictions on them – as though they have some kind of political bondage fetish.

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by Whistler » April 5, 2020, 12:01 pm

Oh Dear, a few exaggerations here.

The guy on the park bench had received two previous cautions the same day, but persisted to defy the stay home policy. Three offenses on the same day! He was not fined for eating a kebab, he was fined for persistently ignoring police directives. Of course he should have been fined.

Couples are not banned for bonking, there was some confusion on lovers who live apart about meeting up as that clearly is not staying at home. This was clarified saying there were no issues. To broadly state couple are being banned for bonking is very misleading.

The curve does not seem to be flattening, it is already flattening at a very healthy clip.

Fascinated about the yet-to-be-released modelling. Begs the question, if it has not been released.......

I was discussing modeling using artificial intelligence with Dr Antony Blakely an epidemiologist from the University of Melbourne last week. He said it was not possible to do too much modeling as the only available data at the moment is aggregate data, until he can get data on individual cases, and on those tested, he claims future projections are pretty much impossible. The government probably has more info than Dr Blakely, but they will not have it from other countries to assess which policies are paying off in anything other than broad assumptions.

I cross referenced this with the chief architect within my own company (We produce AI software solutions), he said the same thing.

We are attempting to recognise trends from aggregae data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide, but are no getting any insights into projected spread.
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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 1:32 pm

Seems the Victorian government was a bit confused
Victoria thought it acceptable to ban people in a relationship from seeing each other if they did not live in the same house.
And the fact that the ban was quickly lifted only makes it more troubling: Was this deadly practice for five minutes and totally fine a few hours later?

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by Whistler » April 5, 2020, 2:14 pm

Noosard,

I can understand officials interpreting regulations wrongly, this was quickly rectified, in the scheme of things NBD.
The tenor of your post went way beyond this little hiccup, or the secretive modelling. Their is insufficient data to do accurate modeling, my follow up email to Blakley acknowledges that

'Hello Tony,

My details as discussed in our ever so brief conversation.

I have attached a product outline to give you some idea of what we are all about. I also understand that you are using aggregate data rather than case data, I would have expected that given privacy issues, this would be the case.

The aggregate data I suspect may contain many clues. We can build a model with virus stats, but match that to population demographics, number of tests, days since isolation was introduced, etc etc. The hope would be to identify time phased responses and identify which are most effective and extrapolate spread and mortality rates.

This is not a commercial approach, but for us at (edited) to contribute to the research. Let me know if this is of interest and we can discuss further. Our company was born from practitioners in medical research, mainly in cancer research, I would anticipate that the algorithms we utilize in our ML platform will apply to a large extent for Covid 19.

I am in Thailand for a while, our HQ is in Sydney, our chief architect in Chicago, it would make sense to meet over Skype if you want to take things further'
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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 3:04 pm

Testing is at a high level, unlike the USA and UK who only test when the bleeding obvious says the patient has an infection,

your statement

tell me that is true

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 3:09 pm

USA tested 1.6m virus cases to date 311637

Uk tested 183k virus cases to date 41903

Aus tested 291k virus cases to date 5635

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by Whistler » April 5, 2020, 4:03 pm

noosard wrote:
April 5, 2020, 3:09 pm
USA tested 1.6m virus cases to date 311637

Uk tested 183k virus cases to date 41903

Aus tested 291k virus cases to date 5635
Not sure what your source is, but try the reputed sources below. Regardless, on your figures, US 1.6M tests with a population around 15 times that of Australia, but testing only 4 times more people than Australia in raw terms, roughly 25% of the rate of testing in Australia. Ditto UK, more than double the population of Australia but testing in raw numbers 60% lower than Australia.

The other salient point here is both USA and UK are already hotspots, I wonder why, the fact they started testing later, and still lag enormously in testing kinda tells ya something.

https://hbr.org/2020/03/why-is-the-u-s- ... us-testing

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

What's your problem Noosard? you come up with one objection that is at odds with the facts, so you pivot to another which is also fails the test. Whats next?
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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 4:25 pm

My source is the most accurate to date freely available
The link has been posted on Udon map numerous times

"Australians can expect to be cooped up in isolation until summer, based on yet-to-be-released modelling that reveals the number of hospitalised coronavirus cases won’t peak until the end of October."
This statement came from an Oz paper as did the others and I saw similar ones in Uk papers

and everyone else for at least the next 2 months

if they stop in 2 weeks or 4 weeks it will be just another cycle
The Oz gov has said they are flattening the curve (their modeling prediction)
maybe so
Citizens let their hair down after the lockdown watch the graph line climb again
Will happen over and over till herd immunity or vaccine

Here is Trumps latet statements
make of it want you want

During the conference, Mr Trump also signalled his frustration surrounding the necessary strict social distancing measures rolled out across the country due to the detrimental impact on the economy.

“We have to open our country again,” he said. “We have to open our country again. We don't want to be doing this for months and months and months.”

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by Whistler » April 5, 2020, 4:43 pm

Why not simply reveal your source, t's dead easy, you just type it or copy it onto a post, do you know how to cut and paste?

What has Trump got to do with Australian policy on Covid 19? Another pivot? BTW he has also backed down on that policy.
Last edited by Whistler on April 5, 2020, 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 4:46 pm

lol this what Trump said today

lol
as for cut and paste seems I do a bit of it

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 4:50 pm

Lol
I think Trump read my previous post
thought it was a great idea

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by Whistler » April 5, 2020, 5:03 pm

noosard wrote:
April 5, 2020, 4:46 pm
lol this what Trump said today

lol
as for cut and paste seems I do a bit of it
Doesn't matter what Trump said today, his policy, official US policy is exactly the opposite. OMG noosard, you cheery pick your responses.

- So you have no source of secret modeling (you plainly have no understanding of modelling anyhow)
- Your own figures show that Australia is one of the leading countries testing for Covid, but argue otherwise
- You quote Trump in America, that has nothing to do with Australian policy
- You discount the fact that Australia is already flattening the curve despite the latest figures

Were you Oppositional as a child too? Now lie down on the coach. I am going to show you some ink blots, tell me the first thing that comes into your mind. First card, (smudgy) 'Trump', second car (looks like a cloud) 'Trump'. Third now wait for it I am about to show you the next card 'Trump', I told you to wait........555.

Add a new one to the Foe list (sigh)
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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 5:13 pm

I did not say Australia was not a leading tester
you said USA and UK were not
big difference

for an educated person you should try reading and comprehension

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 5:32 pm

So it is alright for you to use USA and UK for examples
but no one else
I object your Honor

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by mickojak » April 5, 2020, 6:30 pm

Noosard,
Why would you assume this?
noosard wrote:
April 5, 2020, 5:13 pm
for an educated person you should try reading and comprehension
We don't know who he is, what he is, where he is.
Just another keyboard warrior.
Legend in his own lunchbox.

If he is really who he is, would he be wasting his time on this forum, or trying to use his skills in his, (supposed) business and finding a way to profit from this?

Nah, better waste my time arguing with people I don't know.
55
Mick

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by noosard » April 5, 2020, 7:10 pm

okay mick
I dont resort to name calling
was being polite

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by jackspratt » April 5, 2020, 7:14 pm

mickojak wrote:
April 5, 2020, 6:30 pm

We don't know who he is, what he is, where he is.
Just another keyboard warrior.
Legend in his own lunchbox.
Thanks mick ...... for identifying everyone on this forum.

Now, who are you, again? :-k

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Re: A little ray of sunshine from Australia

Post by mickojak » April 5, 2020, 7:21 pm

Nobody.
But, not a know it all.
On this forum to learn and discuss all issues, whether it be Thailand related, (where I live with family), or world related.
Hoping to have reasonable discussions with like minded people who are open minded and willing to see both sides of any argument and try and come to a reasonable solution.
Bit hard here against the Trump haters, who will never see reason and give some credit, (even if very small in their minds), where due.
Mick

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